nerdgirl

What other business? VR/marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

China is concerned & interested. Formal influence is highly debated. China mostly sees it as a stability issue. They don't want a southeast Asian state to fail. nerdgirl's Cliff notes version: In the 1980's, Myanmar (nee Burma) held a democratic election in which an overwhelming majority of the people voted for Aung San Suu Kyi. The controlling military junta -- literally 3 military generals -- didn't like the people's choice and formed the SLORC (State Law & Order Restoration Council - interesting how the acronym is in English & damned Orwellian) creating an autocratic dictatorship, which was highlighted in the movie Amazon mentioned, Rangoon. Nota bene: late 1990s they changed the name to the "State Peace and Development Council." Recent history: On Aug 8th, 1988 students in Rangoon protested against the SLORC's overthrow of the democratically-elected govt. There are no good figures on how many died because unlike Tienenman there were no western cameras (or cell phones, if it were to happen today). Burma has gotten more attention in the ensuing years because of (1) a proposed oil pipeline that would travel through the mountainous/highlands region of the north, which is populated by a minority ethnic group (the Karen). The SLORC/SPDC has been accused of forcing the Karen, i.e., slave labor, to build this pipeline and infrastructure through their lands. And (2) over the last 5 years or so, the USG & others have paid more attention to Burma as the ruling junta has expressed some interest -- nothing explicit -- in acquiring nuclear material for nuclear power. Myanmar is seen as a small but limited risk for trying to pursue nuclear weapons. They don't have the latent technical capabilities so they would need an AQ Khan-like partner. China is unlikely to be that partner. Other represive govts are more likely candidates (e.g., DPRK). At least one of the original 3 generals running the SLORC/SPDC has died or near death (incapicated), the other two had a falling out, so there's basically one slightly less than stable military generally heading the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). He had the capital moved from Yangon (nee Rangoon) 3 hours north (into the jungle/mts) a couple years ago. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes, ... since before 8/8/88 (Burma's "Tiananmen Square"). NPR had nteresting discussions this evening as well. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=14738158 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=14738161 including discussion of the role of oil. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Too unstable? In open warfare, it's the warlords who have the power. Maybe it is only in resistance within a more stable society that the man with ideals can be heard. Perhaps ... I think it's got to be more than warfare, guerrilla, insurgent, or otherwise tho'. East Timor, which had Mandela-like figures of Jose Ramos-Hortas and Carlos Belo, saw >150,000 deaths (out of a population ~650,000, which some have argued qualifies as genocide) during the 20+year conflict. East Timor has a mix of ethnic groups. And, like Iraq, it also had a European colonizer (Portugal for East Timor) that left in the 20th century. East Timor does have a single dominant religion sect. It remains a less than stable state; it's #20 on the 2007 Failed-State index: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3865&page=7 Iraq is #2. Only Sudan is rated worse. Maybe you are onto something -- even during apartheid, I don't think South Africa came anywhere close to failed state or even at risk state qualification. I don't know & doubt there are any easy answers or single variables -- just trying to think out some of the factors. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

While most of us can name a few exceptions, those who truly need substantial mental health intervention don't make it far in skydiving. By far, I mean hundreds of jumps and years. Pragmatically, there are easier and cheaper ways to do harm to oneself. In short, no, I don't think skydiving attracts a disproportionately high amount of those needing mental health intervention. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

It sounds like you kitty's problem may have gone away. If it returns, however, vomiting yellow-appearing liquid or frequent upchucking of partially digested food can be an indication of kidney problems or kidney failure. It's most frequently seen in older cats (>7 yo). I had a 22-yo Scottish Fold, Monty, who did that for sporadically for years, which I dismissed as "hairballs." I regret not taking him to the vet sooner. Caveat: I'm not a vet. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks for the clarifcation. If done well and thoughtfully, there actually could be an interesting topic there. Why have no Mandela-like figures emerged in Iraq? Why do some places and conflicts have figures like Nelson Mandela (Africa), Aung San Suu Kyi (SE Asia), Jose Ramos-Horta (South Asia), Rigoberta Tum (Central America), Fridtjof Nansen (Europe; okay, he's something of a stretch ... but I wanted to include at least one Northern European

Which policies for which specific historical infectious diseases? Quarantine? As was done with more easily transmissible infectious diseases than HIV (e.g., pneumonic plague, influenza & Ebola) in the past? Or something more metaphorically Machiavellian? Smallpox (also much more infectious than HIV) was dealt with through massive, global health effort. We *almost* eradicated polio until some religious fundamentalists who didn't understand basics of public health made choices that impacted other people's children in 25 countries in which polio had been eradicated. Measles ranks among the most infectious diseases ... yeah measles. We dealt with that communicable disease via mass and continued mandatory vaccination programs. You (general dz.com 'you') do realize (yes?) that pneumonic plague, smallpox, Ebola, SARS, influenza, tuberculosis, polio, and measles are all examples of communicable diseases that are much more infectious than HIV? We (the human species) are lucky that HIV is not an airborne disease. The possibility of the virus mutating to become aerosol transmissible was an early concern. The critical problem with a policy of 'survival of the fittest' (as well as survival of the 'holiest of thou') with infectious disease is that we’re not fighting other humans in the long run, but we (humans - all of us from the truly holy to the sadistically profane) are fighting the nastiest potential terrorist of them all – Mama Nature. VR/Marg (For any other unauthorized, armchair epidemiologists lurking, I'm using R0's as measure; citations happily provided upon request.) Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Is anybody actually following what he said? http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,297823,00.html & http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/24/us.iran/index.html (CNN gets bonus points for use of "excoriated" to describe Columbia's President's comments to Ahmadinejad: "Mr. President, you exhibit all the signs of a petty and cruel dictator.") Ahmadinejad continues to question the Holocaust (although he appears to have been more subtle/crafty this time) and asserted that "In Iran we don't have homosexuals like in your country ... In Iran we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have this." (Denial anyone?) Comment from President Bush (cited by Fox): "He's the head of a state sponsor of terror, and yet, an institution in our country gives him the chance to express his point of view, which really speaks to the freedoms of the country." I want to be part of the better state -- a liberal democracy founded on rule of law with a concept of civil liberties -- not pull us (America) down to the behavior of a repressive theocratic state. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Update: For anyone else who's wonkish on bugs, gas, and pointy things with fins - turns out the warheads were W80s (... that lack FRPs/flame resistant pits). So no, still wouldn't get nuclear detonation or widespread Pu distribution, but the Air Force has agreed that the W80s are enough of a risk that they are not supposed to fly in routine operations. Sid Drell's (Stanford Hoover Institute; he started the JASONs) Congressional testimony from 1992 talks about FRPs starting page 4. http://www.plrc.org/docs/Drell_Testimony_1992.pdf (Smiled at reference to ATSD(AE) - doesn't exist anymore; it's ATSD(NCB)) Pics:http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/W80.html VR/ Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Come on' guys ... if one wants the officer corps to continue to become more conservative, we want to keep ROTC & JROTC out of leftist universities and places like San Francisco. I agree with Duncan Hunter on that one! VR/ Marg p.s. Columbia's ROTC site: http://www.columbia.edu/cu/rotc/ & Gadzooks! UC Berkeley's: http://armyrotc.com/edu/univcaberkeley/index.htm Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Sounds good to me. No radioactivity? A multiple-ton volume-detonation aviation bomb (aka "vacuum bomb" or "Father of All Bombs") can provide similar explosive effect w/out radioactivity. Russia released video on 11 Sept (probably available on Youtube) purportedly of a test. Officials (e.g., Colonel-General Rukshin for those who follow such) have been touting the "environmental" aspects ... VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Tangentially related to the topic, but I am confident that quite a few here with find this hilarious. There's also a chunk o'truth in it, sadly. Link was fwd'd to me by a retired O-6 currently in the sandbox working for another private contractor. http://blog.wired.com/defense/2007/09/top-ten-pr-move.html#more "Personally, I prefer the Blackwater of current incarnation -- the one that produces tons and tons of too-awful-to-be-true PR missteps, which in turn produces lots of good news stories and blog posts. But I'm just doing this is as sort of an intellectual exercise in Machiavellian thinking, like musing about how you would commit the perfect crime. "1) New name, preferably with indecipherable acronym. "It took decades before anyone run an "expose" about SAIC. And most people have already forgotten about it. When was the last time you saw a major article about CSC, or Computer Sciences Corporation (hmm, never). DynCorp and prostitutes? A distant memory. "Let's face it: Does your typical American know (or care) what ARINC stands for? "Heck no. "The point here is if you want to be a shadowy, low-profile sort of company, start acting like one. "It's a fine balance here, so no, no, nothing like "Executive Outcomes." That was too Bond-like. Nothin' but trouble. Personally, I'm fond of something snooze-worthy like SMS, for "Strategic Management Solutions." Words like "systems," "integration," and "analytics" all work well. "Or heck, just use the acronym. "2) New logo. Yes, that bear paw is totally awesome cool, if you want teenage boys to love 'ya as much as they love Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. The Press just loooooves that logo (photographers, too!), it just screams "page one." Choose something like the DARPA logo, that innocuous globe-shaped thingamajig also favored by companies of unknown acronyms. Remember how many problems DARPA had when they went with the masonic temple/eye thing for the Information Awareness Office? "Shadow companies should use forgettable logos. Anybody even know what Anteon's logo looks like? Does your average American even know what Anteon does?! Of course not. "4) Change colors (this goes with the logo point, perhaps). "Black is just soooo Angelina Jolie from her knife-cutting days. And nothin' says "spicy mercenary story" like a man wearing wraparound shades and dressed in black. I think a darkish blue would work; still manly, but with a softer edge. ... "7) When your execs get up at conferences, have them talk a lot about network centric warfare, performance-based logistics and systems engineering solutions. "This will put the press to sleep in no time. "No one will file a story. "8) Cultivate relationships with reporters (not just ones who work for Guns & Ammo). "If Blackwater has followed points one through seven, press coverage has probably dropped off to near nill, but still, never hurts to have some goodwill. Since we know all most journalists (other than those who work for Guns & Ammo) are sniveling, animal-lovin', pinko lefties, cultivating relationships won't get you good coverage, but it may mean you'll get the "Blackwater story" -- sorry, the "SMS story" -- across more effectively... " ... Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Syria - yes, signed and ratified, the NPT, the 1995 renewal, & IAEA safeguards (additional verification protocol). Israel - no, on all parts. VR/Marg p.s. for those interested in more on the topic, highly recommend Jeff Lewis' "Arms Control Wonk" (http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/), which has discussed the attacks, phosphate extraction & the insinuated DPRK connection, & Joe Circione's piece at Foreign Policy's site (http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/6251). Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks. In my insular American life, I'd never heard of him. That guy – John Safran – is brilliant, in an intellectually smart-ass, acerbic way. He makes Bill O’Reilly and Jon Stewart look like Ned Flanders-wanna-be’s. This guy seems to take on everyone: ridiculous fatwas, Mormons, Catholic Church, Scientology, KKK, Freemasons, Hindus, God, and Guns. In short, he may be a viable nominee for prophet of DZ.com Speakers Corner Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Do you have any idea of the level of security in the UK? Or Israel? Ever taken an El Al flight? The lowest level of "security" that I have encountered was in Norway. For example, as recently as 2003 & 2004, some intra-national flights did not even require one to go through a metal detector or X-ray. That was fantastic! VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes, you can see a scan of one of the 9 "Jihad-Boom" postcards sent to Ocala, Florida area schools last week at the open source: http://www.nationalterroralert.com/updates/2007/09/17/school-terror-threat-jihad-boom-postcards-with-threatening-cartoon-sent-to-nine-schools/ Reportedly, "jihad" was misspelled one one of the 9 postcards. More indicative of home-growns than Big AQ. VR/ Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Wow! That's a fascinating read. Lots of data. Thanks for sharing the link. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I was trying to gently and pedagogically convey that more knowledge is a good thing. You may chose what you want to believe is "bad." /Marg Original assertion: Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Quote It is a very complicated mess and I suspect that the only short term solution is to empower a dictator, with the necessary military strength to crush the insurgency bringing an end to the war lord type activities. In short Saddam sounds like an ideal candidateQuote Would you consider a Balkan-esque, three-state attempt (Shi'a, Sunni, & Kurd) or even something more radical before proposing an oppressive dictator (US military backed or not)? Purely hypothetical: A more radical (& also problematic) plan than Biden's proposal - but not as far as dictator - would be to encourage Turkey to annex Kurdistan (thereby creating a larger minority of Kurds in Turkey); let Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, or whoever will take it have the western desert; and let Iran deal with Baghdad & the SE? Do you see a Mushareff, Pinochet, or Marcos-style dictator? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Syphilis goes back to ancient times; "sleeping around" was neither invented nor perfected by the 20th Century. H5NI (the most recent avian influenza virus), Ebola, Marburg, Nipah were not around 50 years ago either. Drug resistant strains of multiple pathogens, e.g., TB, MRSA, were not around 50 years ago. New infectious diseases are emerging at about a rate of 1 per year since 1970 (source: WHO). The epidemiological origin of -- that is what was original animal host of the pathogen and what caused it to jump the species boundary -- has nothing to do with who sleeps with who. If you want to assign a "lifestyle" to the origin of AIDS its much more likely (1) mining (in caves) or (2) eating meat (primates specifically) &/or (3) expansion of humans into areas which we had previously not been. There are feline (FIV) and primate (SIV) versions of HIV; are those "lifestyle" diseases as well? If you want to assign a "lifestyle" factor to the spread (not origin) of AIDS, international air travel is a better one. If your profile is correct, we are geographically less than 30 miles apart but separated by worlds. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

... Shivers up my back ... So was the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, which first appeared at Ft Riley in Kansas, spread to the world subsequently, and was responsible for almost 40% of US troops killed in WWI, was a "lifestyle disease" of serving in the Army in 1918 Kansas? What do you think are the rates of heterosexual spread of AIDS? Dang ... sad ... another virus, polio, re-emerged from Northern Nigeria in 2003 spreading to more than a dozen countries and halfway around the world because strongly "religious" folks were opposed to the vaccine on "moral grounds." One of false reasons was that it was perceived to spread AIDS. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Source please or I call bull shit! Rush is correct overall. For all of the reasons Jen listed. While it may seem counter-intuitive to some (or counter-anecdote), rates of re-enlistment are actually highest in combat zones. While the impact varies from soldier to soldier, there is also the impact of the Army's "Stop-loss" program and re-enlistment bonuses. If one re-enlists, there are monetary ($1-10K for most, upwards $150K for highly trained Speical Ops, etc) and non-monetary rewards courtesy of the 2006 DoD Authorization Act (expires in 2009), see e.g., http://www.armytimes.com/news/2007/08/army_bonuses_070829w/. Per the bill, the bonuses are tax-free if one re-enlists while serving in a combat zone. Army staff recognized the need (which goes back to the 1990's; it just becomes more of an issue when you're in a ground war) and made specific efforts; Army staff had a big push on this a couple years ago. The Army is losing soldiers in its young officer corps, particularly graduates of West Point separating after minimum service. Enlistment rates are another issue to consider. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Gut prediction? Or do you have some historical precedent in mind? And do you mean "AQ in Iraq," or what is referred to as "Big AQ" (i.e., Usama bin Laden, al-Zawahiri, Sheikh Said, Saif al-Adel, Abu Faraj al Libbi, et al, in NW Pakistan/eastern Afghanistan)? I'm not being facetious or snarky but am legitimately asking if you see a historical precedent or some other basis for the prediction. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Ignorance w/r/t religion & history is far-reaching - it's not just about the Founding Fathers. Stephen Prothero's Religious Literacy: What Every American Needs to Know--And Doesn't is fascinating and timely -- given the role of religion & religious extremists in national and international security now. -- Less than 50% of Americans can identify the first book of the Bible. -- Just over one-third can identify who delivered the Sermon on Mount. -- 75% believe that the Bible teaches that "God helps those who help themselves." -- Only 50% can name the four Gospels. -- Then there's the downright frighteningly silly, e.g., 10% think that Noah's wife was Joan of Arc, a slight majority think Sodom & Gemorrah were husband & wife, and Ramadan is identified as a Jewish holiday. Book review: http://www.usatoday.com/news/religion/2007-03-07-teaching-religion-cover_N.htm The cited Newsmax article is based on a USA Today poll. If the majority of Americans who profess to practice one religion do not know the basic history of that religion, is it really surprising the misperceptions that exist regarding other history? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying