nerdgirl

Quote The republican party needs to get their act together. Of the 30ish Senate seats up for election next year, nearly two thirds of them are republican held seats.Quote And half of the six considered potentially at play (Allard in CO, Hagel -- who I really hate to see leave -- in NE, & "St." Pete in NM) are in nearby states. A wild card may turn out to be Oregon. Craig's impact is unlikely to be significant in VA or NH. In 2012, Lugar (Indiana-R) will be 80. Who is going to be the next generation of Hagel & Lugar's in Foreign Policy? The Dems have a young potential leader in Obama, who's already working with Lugar, on CTR, assuming he stays in the Senate. Obama is not a Sam Nunn yet, or even a Biden or Dodd. I suspect Webb's going to focus on Armed Services. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

In your scenario, what would the Republicans be saying in even-tempered tones? R/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That's what we said 20 years ago. And how long have we been fighting 'the war on cancer'? Nixon launched it in 1971. It's easy -- sometimes so easy -- to criticize missile defense on technical grounds. MDA (nee BMDO) and MIT-Lincoln Labs didn't help with some less than high-integrity appearing behavior, i.e., appearance of fraud. I'm always hesistant to base the argument completely on the technical side, although it can be done effectively, e.g., Ted Postol (former Science Advisor to the Chief of Naval Operations). It's more than acceptance or embracing (!) technical risk. Missile defense is also about deterrence. There were 2 visceral reasons nuclear bombs worked for deterrence: Hiroshima & Nagasaki. Can an unproven -- some would argue unprovable -- capability afford deterrence? If it can work, missile defense is a deterrent for states with ballistic missile capability. That's really a fairly small subset of the threats. Currently, that's Russia, Britain, France, and China. The US insists that missile defense is not directed against Russia or China. 10 years: DPRK - limited likelihood at best; Iran - maybe; Syria - very small probability. Missile defense misses a huge threat space of everybody else and DPRK, Iran, etc using other means, e.g., improvised nuclear devices. There's another issue of threat assessment (probability x consequence) & allocation of resources. In FY07, the DoD's Combatting WMD R&D program had a $16B budget. $11B went to missile defense. The remaining $5B went to R&D for defense against -- biological agents (medical, protection, decon, detection) -- chemical agents (medical, protection, decon, detection), -- radiological agents (medical, protection, decon, detection), -- all non-ballistic missile related nuclear defense R&D, & -- all Cooperative Threat Reduction R&D. [Source: publicly available RDTE-forms submitted to Congress, http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2007/budget_justification/index.html ] This de facto prioritization is not in line with the President's Strategy for Combatting WMD, the National Security Strategy, or the military strategies. VR/Marg p.s. Mahley & Bolton used the argument that unproven capability could not afford deterrence to argue against and to shut down negotiations a verification protocol to the Biological Weapons Conventions (BWC) in July 2001. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

QuoteIt is amazing how much energy is devoted to the topic of hate crimes, considering they account for one in six thousand crimes.Quote Is this really the argument you want to make? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

QuoteRelative to the threat we face from economic collapse, terrorists are a minor threat.Quote What about an economic collapse precipitated by a terrorist event? While many around here may object to current occupant of the Oval Office or the previous one, virtually none advocate overthrowing the government system (the Constitution) and governance by the rule of law (as opposed to theocracy or king). Otoh, Al Qa'eda -- as lead of larger, nebulous global salafist movement -- has advocated the use of terrorism as a means to cause economic collapse of US and western world. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

QuoteBut a successful test of a missile defense program completed last week is giving military leaders more confidence that an airborne attack from Iran can be thwarted....Quote How did they define "success"? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thank you *all* for great comments! There aren't readily identifiable Maginot lines or easily identifiable combatants (vs civilians) in asymmetric warfare and in stability ops, which is what we (the world) and we (specifically the US) are likely to be see increasingly. (& that’s not a particularly novel statement on my part.) Again, it’s so easy to use Blackwater as the illustrative case, don’t mean to be intentionally ‘picking on’ that company. I agree that Blackwater is – to some extent – being scapegoated for broader problems associated with the USG reliance on PMSCs and the murky legal jurisdiction. That does not, however, make them any less responsible for their behavior. BTW: yes, I know “PMC” is the more common abbreviation, but I want to specify intentionally those private military contractors who are tasked to execute security functions. (KBR serving dinner is a very different task than protecting and escorting potentially high-value targets or other PMSC tasks.) If Blackwater or any PMSCs were acting in purely protective or defensive actions, i.e., never shooting first, it would be easy. But it’s not. PMSCs are -- transporting armed uniformed combatants in war zones (http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/02/blackwater.afghan.crash/index.html), -- involved in multiple shooting incidents that are highly debated as to ‘who shot first,’ e.g., most recent incident (left: http://www.thenation.com/docprint.mhtml?i=20071015&s=scahill / right: http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2007Oct01/0,4670,BlackwaterIraq,00.html), -- allegedly smuggling arms into conflict areas, which is being investigated by a retired Marine Colonel, among others ( http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2007Sep22/0,4670,BlackwaterProbe,00.html) -- Eric Prince, CEO, yesterday in the Congressional hearing (Thank God for C-SPAN!) acknowledged the 150+ shooting incidents and specifically noted that the actual number is certainly *higher* than what they self-report. -- offered to raise combat forces, http://content.hamptonroads.com/story.cfm?story=102251&ran=202519&tref=po -- Advertise as “We are not simply a 'private security company.’ We are a professional military, law enforcement, security, peacekeeping and stability operations firm who provides turnkey solutions” http://www.blackwaterusa.com/ Prince elaborated some of the frustration. When asked about the repercussions for the drunken Blackwater employee who shot and killed a bodyguard for the Iraqi VP last Christmas Eve, Prince explained that employee was fired and indicated that the employee was also fined a large amount (>$2K). When pressed, his response, which can be taken out of context, was to reply "We can't flog him, we can't incarcerate him." He’s absolutely right - it’s a private company executing what has traditionally been the domain of states with state authority, whether autocratic or based on more civil law. That's the crux. I suspect the number & role of PMSCs will increase in conflicts not decrease. LTC Thomas K. Adams, USA (ret), proposed “three types of mercenaries” in his 1999 paper, The New Mercenaries and the Privatization of Conflict, http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/99summer/adams.htm. The first type resembles the Geneva Convention Article 47 and historical characterization of mercenary activities cited here. The 2nd and 3rd types, are in line with what PMSCs are being tasked to do in Iraq & Afghanistan, i.e., “fairly large commercial companies that provide the kind of services expected of a general staff in one of the more developed national armies: high-quality tactical, operational, and strategic advice for the structure, training, equipping, and employment of armed forces” and “highly specialized services with a military application, but these groups are not in themselves notably military or paramilitary in organization or methods,” respectively. My interest is less in indicting Blackwater or any other PMSC than my initial “So What? Who Cares?” questions: A strong, civilian-controlled military – both "civilian-controlled" and "strong" being critical components – is vital. Is the phenomenon of Blackwater, et al., a result of down-sizing the volunteer military than began in the 1990s? (Yes, Hessians fought in American Revolution; more recent history please.) If one sees value and importance of the US military for force projection globally – & I do – whether for national security, in support of allies, stability operations (per DoDD 3000.05), reconstruction, or humanitarian, (even if Iraq/OIF has not been the most successful example), is the reliance on private military contractors eroding that capability? Does Blackwater, et al., represent America? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

One would think, yes ... but according to the study sited (or more accurately according to the secondary write-up), preventative care (for all) is responsible for increases in US health costs. Seems to be some contradictions, eh? As the epidemiologists try to get into our heads: correlation does not equal causality. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

As it should Protocol 1 of the Geneva Convention, signed by the US, to which 167 states are currently party, defines “Mercenaries” in Article 47 ( http://www.unhchr.ch/html/menu3/b/93.htm): 2. A mercenary is any person who: (a) Is specially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict; (b) Does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities; (c) Is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party; (d) Is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict; (e) Is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and (f) Has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces. Now the vast majority of private contractors in Iraq clearly do not fit that definition, not even slightly. Not by any chance. Otoh, does the most recent Blackwater incident, regardless of whether they fired first or not, coupled with the Fallujah firefight in March 2004 and the other shooting incidents being investigated not qualify … maybe? (see e.g., http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21034414/ or do a Google search) Parts (a) & (d) are the problem. 99% (if not 100%) of Blackwaters private military security contractors (PMSCs) are required to be US citizens. And since we all here are such strong proponents of the Laws of War,

I thought it was NO's debauchery that caused Katrina? Liberals, gays, feminists, etc, -- they are *that* powerful that they can control the weather! Ya know, the ones that *aren't* in Iran according to Amenindejad. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

160,000 mercs? I thought is was between 20,000 and 30,000. For the sake of argument (novel, in these parts

Thanks for the link to the Sunday Herald article. Some very interesting & provocative background. Know TX Hammes (he’s retired Marine Corps, also former commander CBIRF/II MEF) – gonna have to follow up on what he’s looking into.

I suspect one needs to go the original study - cause the Yahoo write-up also suggests that one overall cause of the greater US health costs is preventative care, e.g., cancer screenings, that increases the overall health budget. (What does that do to the HMO model?) "While Americans appeared to be on the whole sicker than adults in other industrialized countries, the study said more aggressive preventive care could help explain the results for some illnesses." "For example, the study found 12.2 percent of Americans are diagnosed with cancer, more than twice that of Europe. But that is likely due in part to more screening here, the study said." "More than half of Americans are former or current smokers, compared with about 43 percent in the European sample. [i.e., more smokers in US]." /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Who is the only human for whom 2 elements are named? Marie Curie. Curium Cm (#96) & Polonium Po (#84), for her home country /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

These days it seems too easy to pick on Blackwater … “Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Baghdad overseeing more than 160,000 U.S. troops, makes roughly $180,000 a year. That comes out to less than half the fee charged by Blackwater for its senior manager of a 34-man security team.” (Analysis & quote: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/30/AR2007093001352.html; primary document, made available through House Committee: http://oversight.house.gov/documents/20061207151614-43671.pdf) Is the market right there? Is it the market that we want America to project? (I.e., are the values of the market screwed up here? Im-ever-ho, yes.) Counter that observation with the occasional wisdom and always insightfully/incitefully acerbic commentary of Ralph Peters w/r/t Blackwater’s latest incident …. which he actually blames on the State Dept, but the wisdom part is: “And who gets the blame? Our troops. Iraqis just see all of the pale faces with guns as Americans. They don’t differentiate between the honorable men and women in uniform and the narcissistic killers who adorn themselves with knives and cop-killer side arms - and who look like rejects from professional wrestling. “And, as any soldier in Iraq can tell you, one contractor shoot-’em-up can ruin months of progress. (Of course, the contractors don’t make money off of progress - a peaceful Iraq would be terrible for business.)” (http://www.nypost.com/seven/09302007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/trouble_for_hire) One soldier (well, technically a marine) told us back in April 2005: http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=2425191;search_string=fallujah;#2425191 Unfortunately, there aren’t good sound-bites from Toolan’s interview – actually have to read more than a text snippet. So what? Who cares? A strong, civilian-controlled military – both "civilian-controlled" and "strong" being critical components – is vital. Is the phenomenon of Blackwater, et al., a result of down-sizing the volunteer military than began in the 1990s? (Yes, Hessians fought in American Revolution; more recent history please.) If one sees value and importance of the US military for force projection globally – & I do – whether for national security, in support of allies, stability operations (per DoDD 3000.05), reconstruction, or humanitarian, (even if Iraq/OIF has not been the most successful example), is the reliance on private military contractors eroding that capability? Does Blackwater, et al., represent America? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I think we may be in 'violent agreement' as they say. For example, when we had a recall drill at 2pm on a Sunday afternoon, I wore jeans and sweater, i.e., what I was wearing that day. It probably would not have been received well if I would have taken time to change into a suit, etc. It needs context, like most things. I would argue that extensive use of make-up can be an indicator in context, but is not the sole determinant of high maintenance. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Since the use of make-up (or lack thereof) has been a characteristic around which much of the discussion has revolved, it may be worth considering that some professional situations have unspoken -- but very well understood -- norms that women ***in order to be considered professional*** -- must (not should) wear make-up of a certain conservative type. E.g., do we ever see Condaleeza Rice or Hillary Clinton without some make-up? In my last job, I wore make-up every day (along with full suits, heels, & minimal jewelry). It was all very "professional," i.e, neutral tones and light colors, nothing gaudy, but that was part of the expectation. And it impacted how I was treated. Conversely, when I spent my undergrad summers as a counselor at a Girl Scout camp in the San Bernadino Mts, I never wore make-up. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Subject line is the term. It's a tolerated practice among certain Buddhist and Hindu groups. More so in South and South East Asia than Central (Nepal, Tibet) or Northeast Asia. Thich Duc was probably the Vietnamese Buddhist monk you recall. Immolation or proverbial 'kitchen fire' is also a dirty less-than-secret method used to kill wives or used by wives to escape (through attempted suicide) abusive husbands in South and Southwest Asian states. The latter form of the practice has expanded to Muslim subgroups in SW Asia, such as in situations in which 10 yo girls are "married," i.e., sold to 40 yo men. A rare western self-immolation protester was Jan Palach. He was protesting the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. A few years ago I visited his memorial near Wencelas Square (a la the "Good King" of the Christmas carol) in Prague. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Terry Gilliam's Brazil Other faves: Matrix (the first one), Pan's Labyrinth, In the Shadow of the Raven (Icelandic flic), Mehta's Earth. Current fave 'brain candy' flic: Michael Bay's Transformers Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Monty (1984-2006) "spoiled" & at the pass north of Fairplay, CO Bumblebee (rescue kitten) & Yoda (1/2 Siamese-1/2 tomcat) /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Folks on the lefts who might self-identify as "Greenies" are also concerned about the potential redistribution of power, sovereignty issues, and who will benefit from biofuels. E.g., see: "Biofuels: a danger for Latin America" from ZNet Commentaries http://www.zmag.org/sustainers/content/2007-05/24trigona.cfm. -------------- At the same time, a superficially unexpected (perhaps?) 'group' has been sponsoring significant investigations into biofuels and alternative energy. For example, the DoD Under Secretary for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (AT&L) and the (now former) Office of Force Transformation (OFT) started a monthly series on "Energy: A Conversation About Our National Addiction" in January 2006. If one thinks about it, the military is critically dependent on sources of energy to move things and people. Ken Kreig (formerly the Under Secretary) regularly participated in these, as did the head of PA&E. This is not just some nerdy, tree-huggers in northern California. Old website (via NPS): www.nps.edu/cebrowski/conversation.html. New website (contractor maintained): http://www.energyconversation.org/cms/ (Click "About Us" tab for mention of sponsors). "Why is the DoD hosting this series? Just as the Defense Department played a critical role in forging the information revolution [e.g., ARPANET] in past decades, so can the Department play a similar critical role in fueling the energy revolution in coming decades? Why are you invited? Because there are positive and negative outcomes of decisions you make dependent upon your understanding of energy. We are all stakeholders in addressing the efficiency, conservation, secure sourcing, and cost reduction of energy. It is complicated with no easy answers. There are NO SILVER BULLETS. Come learn with us." VR/Marg p.s. full list of speakers and topics: http://www.energyconversation.org/cms/?q=node/113. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

So the Secretary of US Dept of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff, has a blog: http://www.dhs.gov/journal/leadership/ Hmmm … Good idea? Not so? Wait & see? Should he be applauded for proverbially reaching out? Is this a way to get a perspective on U.S. senior leadership? 21st century ‘fireside’ chats? There is an element of risk in the public eye – kudos to him & DHS for being willing to take that risk. DHS already gets a lot of criticism inside & outside the beltway. Does this, in all actuality, represent good leadership? OTOH, is this the next installment of DHS being pre-occupied with appearances rather than substance and previous less than successful attempts to reach out to the public? I.e., the 6+ months spent on the logo & color scheme, the whole color-coded alert system (http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/routledg/cnps/2005/00000027/00000004/art00003), “duct tape and plastic sheeting.” I want it to be real, meaningful, & effective. VR/Marg p.s. I would have loved to read a blog by Rumsfeld while he was SecDef!!! Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

If we assume that no technical progress will be made to improve efficiency, from a domestic security and North American energy independence perspectives is what you described an overall negative scenario? What will be the impact of rising domestic corn prices in a market economy? Particularly on farm subsidies and trade? There's A LOT of open land in Nebraska & Alberta. BP (once British Petroleum, now 'Beyond Petroleum') began investing in biofuels 5+ years ago. What if instead of corn-based biofuels, one looks to sugar beets or canola? How does that impact the energy burden, notwithstanding technical improvements in biofuel use? Does anyone have good, comparable estimates on the overall energy burden associated with extracting, transfering, and refining fossil fuels from Middle East or FSU-stans? OTOH, if tar sand and shale oil can be extracted efficiently from Alberta (as well as the US Rockies), the biofuels issue will be pushed off another 25-50 years. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Your comment reminds me of a few years back -- when I had more free time and was in better shape (connection?) -- most of the folks with whom I ice-climbed thought skydiving was "crazy," and many of the folks with whom I skydived throught ice-climbing was "crazy." Nevermind, a substantial group in both think BASE-jumping is "crazy" or some more colorful metaphor.

Agree - worthwhile piece to discuss. Agree some of his observations are right-on. OTOH, some of the conclusions that he infers (analysis) from those observations are disputable (see comments by Quade, Bill Von, & SpeedRacer) and pushing provocative to inflammatory ... but Harris is writing for the LA Times not for International Security, Foreign Affairs, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, or the Naval War College Review The use of intentionally inflammatory language (which Bill Von highlighted) is a common tactic. It's far from brilliant or innovative, as all sorts of folks, e.g., toward one end of the spectrum - Howard Stern, use intentionally inflammatory rhetoric to get attention. One could argue that our multi-media saturated environment, voices that speak precisely, calmly, and without hyperbole can get lost too easily ... or they're "boring wonks, academics, pointy heads," etc. What do you think Harris would like to see? Do you think the tactic he took is likely to be effective? (Perhaps, yes ... or perhaps, no.) Or are there more effective strategies (as opposed to tactics)? Is Harris following the Christopher Hitchen's model? Both are extremely critical of organized religion and its followers from Christianity to radical Islam. Others have argued, more thoughtfully that Harris (im-ever-ho) in the last few years some of the same issues with more robust analysis and conclusions, e.g., -- Kelly's A Renaissance of Liberalism, http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/prem/200201/kelly; --Starr's Freedom's Power http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/29/books/review/Lind.t.html; -- Michelle Flournay, President of the Center for a New American Security http://www.observer.com/2007/hot-policy-wonks-democrats-new-realists -- Joe Circione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at Center for American Progress, http://www.americanprogress.org/experts/CirincioneJoseph.html -- Mavis Leno (i.e., Jay Leno's wife), who as far back as 1997 spoke about the threat of and against the atrocities of the Taliban (and testified before Congress in 1998). As a thought experiment: Imagine if someone posted a piece with an introduction characterizing skydivers as 'willfully ignorant' or some similarly pejorative descriptor setting up any of our other dynamic factions in Speakers Corner, i.e., strong 2nd Amendment supporters (literalists), families and former uniformed service members. VR/Marg QuoteInteresting read from one of their own, in fact. I'm sure those here who should really read it, won't... but I wanted to share it. While I'll probably disagree with the author on almost all of his other positions... this one strikes home since it seems to me that many liberals are willfully ignorant about the subject.Quote Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying