nerdgirl

Would you expand a little on what qualifies as failure? Both systems are predicted (based on models) to be impacted heavily by changes in demographics (i.e., Baby Boomers retiring and getting older). What are the respective percentages of the GDP that go to healthcare versus social security? And what are the models predicting for 10, 20, 30 years? I honestly don't know the specifics, but think it would be an interesting comparison. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I haven't noticed any elderly people starving on the streets recently. Bill Clinton said pretty much the same thing: 22 Sept., 1993 televised speech by WJ Clinton: ....."the costliest and most wasteful system on the face of the Earth"....."most urgent priority"....."the challenge of our time."... I may be mistaken but was not that specific speech the one regarding healthcare reform? On a relative scale which system is having more problems currently healthcare or Social Security? And why? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Would you expand a little on the specifics of that plan? Representative democracy - people voted for Romney, Milliken, Blanchard, Engler (91-03) and Granholm (03+). Yes, Michigan's economy has *lots* of problems. I would argue that they are more largely driven by failure to respond (perhaps, predict accurately the extent of) globalization and changing realities of market-based economics, such as (but not limited to) the prices of wages and benefits (e.g., healthcare). And is that more due to the choices by the leaders of the American auto industry or the elected governor? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Is that cause, correlation, or coincidence? Is the small upward trend 2004-2005 significant, especially given that the process to issue a CCW permit would seem to pre-select (by intention) those folks with history of being less inclined to criminal activities? ----------- The 2nd to last paragraph made reference to an interesting observed phenomenon: …“a Psychology Today study of "good Samaritans" who came to the aid of violent-crime victims found that 81 percent were gun owners, and many of them carried guns in their cars or on their persons.” One could speculate that the CCW empowered those individuals to feel safer to in unknown situations. Of course, there are lots of additional variables to consider. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Has Senator Obama or a representative of his campaign responded? [purely speculative] Was it intentionally provocative? Speculative motives could range from intentionally furthering his feelings as expressed w/r/t wearing flag lapel pins to 'any news is better than no news.' I wonder how many were aware of the USC "shoulds" a priori? It creates a dialogue ... although probably not the one intended.

In Dec 1938, Lise Meitner, Otto Hahn & Frank Strassman figured out the implications of experiments they had conducted that summer on bombarding uranium nitrate with neutrons - fission w/the accompanying exothermic reaction. They had expected to observe radium as daughter product, they got barium. In early 1939, Hahn & Strassman publish in a German journal (whose name I don't remember); Meitner & Hahn published in the British journal, Nature. Within a year, more than 100 letters & papers on experimental and theoretical aspects of nuclear physics and fission appeared in the literature. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Congratulations on the publication. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

QuoteNot surprising - how much did you see in the news about Michael Murphy's MOH ceremony?Quote It was on the front page of CNN.com on Monday (http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/22/murphy.medal.of.honor/index.html) NPR's evening news program "All Things Considered" did a story (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=15528733), which included a good portion of President Bush's remarks and comments from Murphy's father. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What do folks think about this? https://www.cia.gov/news-information/cia-the-war-on-terrorism/dci-counterterrorist-center-terrorist-buster-logo.html I'm laughing at it because I think it's cute and not what I would expect to have made it through CIA Public Affairs. Should I put one on my carry-on luggage to get through TSA screening quicker? It's been suggested that it's a take off on the Ghostbusters movie logo, although it would seem more appropriate for the NSA to be associated with a motto inspired by Ghostbusters: "We Know Who Ya Called." /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

One counterfactual (i.e., alternative notional historical scenario) is if the US had chosen to pursue a technical demonstration before use on Japanese mainland. (Mentioned here: http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=2988169;#2988169) A different counterfactual was suggested by historian Tsuyoshi Hasegawa, who has argued that the possibility/probability of invasion by Soviet Union was a greater factor in prompting the surrender of Japan … and suggested that Japan would have unconditionally surrendered before 15 Aug, when the Soviets indicated they would join the Pacific War. The Soviets broke the non-aggression pact attacking the Japanese in northeast China (nee Manchuria) btw the bombing of Hiroshima & Hirohito's surrender. He examined records from Japanese cabinet meetings and diaries of government and military officials before and immediately after the atomic bomb drops that he asserted suggested the “shock of the [potential] Soviet invasion was felt much more strongly than the shock of the atomic bombing.” Excerpts from Racing the Enemy: Stalin, Truman, and the Surrender of Japan are available via Google books (http://books.google.com/books?id=iPju1MrqgU4C&dq=tsuyoshi+hasegawa&printsec=frontcover&source=web&ots=BRtyjFFQWi&sig=jHA83WogTUZkxIV0UdmzyHm8fbo) is a fascinating read for any one who likes reading military history or security stuff. Article discussing Hasegawa’s work: http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1543754,00.html VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Would you provide a link to substantiate this, particularly the "nanotechnology"-enabled portion? I've been looking for a robust confirmation since the alleged test announced on 11 Sept 2007 by General Rukshin on Russian tv. Has John Pike's analysis been discredited? (http://www.wired.com/politics/security/news/2007/10/russian_bomb?currentPage=1) I would agree that the most likely application would be nano-engineered propellants or initiators (function of surface area of nanoscale materials). VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I should read more on the civilian exposure issues - thanks to all who have provided links and recommendations. For those interested in additional info on exposure (not necessarily deliberate, negligent, or otherwise) of service members during atmospheric tests, see "For the Record - A History of the Nuclear Test Personnel Review Program, 1978 - 1993," which is available to download as pdf from DTIC (http://stinet.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA306360). Abstract appended below. For a summary of some of the programmatic and technical challenges, I highly recommend Dr. Paul Blake's (Captain, USN ret) June 2008 brief "Update on Nuclear Test Personnel Review" (http://vbdr.org/meetings/2006/materials/austin/Dr.%20Blake.ppt). Some of the current problems that the NTPR program had were discussed in the March 2007 Vanity Fair 'expose' on SAIC, who effectively ran the NTPR up until a few years ago (before Blake was brought aboard): (http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/03/spyagency200703) "One early project came in the 1970s and 80s, when SAIC received Pentagon contracts to reconstruct the amount of radiation absorbed by military personnel during atomic-bomb tests and other service-related exposures. The government's bookkeeping was so erratic from the early days of the Cold War that it was often difficult to tell how much radiation soldiers had received and whether it might have been responsible for their various cancers. When SAIC did the numbers, few veterans qualified for compensation. The Pentagon's nuclear testing was in effect off the hook, and ailing veterans were out of luck. After years of hearings, Congress in 1988 passed the Radiation-Exposed Veterans Compensation Act, which gave veterans the benefit of the doubt. It was presumed that their cancer was attributable to nuclear exposure without considering the radiation dose. By then many of the veterans were dead. A health physicist who testified later on behalf of the veterans spoke unkindly of the original SAIC work: 'Atomic veterans have been deprived of benefits intended by Congress through [SAIC's] deceptive internal dose reconstructions and poor understanding of radioactive material distribution in the body.' SAIC disagrees, saying that it 'continues to work with the government to apply the best science to performing dose reconstruction for atomic veterans.'" ---- It's not a 'sexy' issue, but the nation (im-ever-ho) owes it to the veterans to do something. VR/Marg "For the Record - A History of the Nuclear Test Personnel Review Program, 1978 - 1993" Abstract: "This volume is a history of the Nuclear Test Personnel Review (NTPR) program from 1978 through September 30, 1993. It identifies the origins, missions, and historical evolution of the effort, focusing on the contributions of the Defense Nuclear Agency, the NTPR teams, the Veterans Administration, and the Department of Energy. In addition, the narrative describes U.S. nuclear operations, including weapons testing and the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, personnel participation in those operations, and radiation safety measures. The report also discusses radiation dose determination and medical studies of potential dose effects." Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Interesting debate. Thank you for bringing this part of his comments to the discussion. Reading through Gen Sanchez's speech (even w/out considering the context of the 2nd half) on the media and particularly noting the specific reporters that he cites as examples of his perception of good journalism, his message may have been that reporters should be tougher on President Bush's Administration, e.g., “Other major challenges are your willingness to be manipulated by ‘high level officials’ who leak stories and by lawyers who use hyperbole to strengthen their arguments.” Joe Galloway, the first reporter Gen Sanchez names as exemplary (“exemplify” is his exact word), has not been subtle in his writing: 5 July 2007, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/galloway/story/17599.html: “What we have here, at the very heart of our own government, is a morass of criminal behavior unlike anything seen in recent American history. “On his way out the door, whether sooner or later, George W. Bush had better sign one last pardon — to himself — for all the damage and destruction he has wrought on a nation that expected far better.” Shanker and Burns (NY Times reporters) have not been hesitant to criticize either. He does cite reporters who have pro-actively sought to engage the military and the Department of Defense not ones who have shied away from criticizing or challenging. He criticizes instantaneous gratification journalism and almost sounds like he’s arguing for more old-style “Nightline” (pre-Ted Koppel’s departure) style investigative reporting. … Or pre-the rise of the 24-hour news channels. In this paragraph, which I intentionally pulled out the whole paragraph (apologies for the capitals, it’s in the orginal), “ALL ARE VICTIMS OF THE MASSIVE AGENDA DRIVEN COMPETITION FOR ECONOMIC OR POLITICAL SUPREMACY. THE DEATH KNELL OF YOUR ETHICS HAS BEEN ENABLED BY YOUR PARENT ORGANIZATIONS WHO HAVE CHOSEN TO ALIGN THEMSELVES WITH POLITICAL AGENDAS. WHAT IS CLEAR TO ME IS THAT YOU ARE PERPETUATING THE CORROSIVE PARTISAN POLITICS THAT IS DESTROYING OUR COUNTRY AND KILLING OUR SERVICEMEMBERS WHO ARE AT WAR.” In the last sentence, it’s not clear to whom he wants to assign responsibility for “killing our servicemembers”? The journalists with whom he disagrees or those politicians who have engaged in “corrosive partisan politics that are destroying are country and killing our servicemembers”? Particularly if you consider it on light of the words of the journalists Sanchez sites as exemplary. General Sanchez’s concluding remark (for that portion of the speech) is also interesting. I would have like to have heard his answer. “Finally, I will leave this subject with a question that we must ask ourselves--who is responsible for maintaining the ethical standards of the profession in order to ensure that our democracy does not continue to be threatened by this dangerous shift away from your sacred duty of public enlightenment?” Is it just the journalists, with whom I suggest primary responsibility lies? The editors who have immediate authority over what is printed? The CEO, etc of the private media news corporations who hire the editors? The consumer market-place that enables commercial 'instanteous gratification' media to thrive? The type of journalism that he is strongly criticizing is responding to a demand from the market place. But that’s part of market-driven capitalism. Remember the much-maligned FCC “Fairness Doctrine”? Am I just ‘cherry-picking’ what I want to see? -- In the context of the original post and subsequent discussions, does anyone want to argue that since LTG Sanchez served in Iraq 2003-2004 that his views (like those who questioned the 12 Army Captains views) are not relevant? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Gently cleaning up coffee I laughingly spit-splattered all over the computer screen. Hmmm … maybe that’s what the Florida Congressional Rep, who’s trained as a medical doctor, meant when inserted language in an early version of the FY07 Appropriations bill directing the White House OSTP & the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) to study “the potential impact of nanotechnology on human dignity”? Hmm, maybe it's not weather modification ... Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

There was another debate going on in summer 1945 that does not get the same attention as the already mentioned and much debated (over the last 60 years) argument that an US invasion of Japan would result in tens of thousands of American fatalities and hundreds of thousands of Japanese fatalities, as well as prolonged engagement. Would a technical demonstration have been sufficient to push Emperor Hirohito to unconditional surrender? In June 1945, Secretary of War Henry Stimson (as there was no Defense Dept until 1947) gathered pre-eminent nuclear scientists (physicists, chemists, & engineers) to make recommendations whether use was necessary to end the war or would a ‘technical demonstration” suffice. Among the scientists in that early Defense Science Board (DSB) or JASON-esque groups were Ernest Lawrence, Arthur Compton, Enrico Fermi, and Robert Oppenheimer. They recommended that a ‘technical demonstration’ would not end the war. Another group of scientists, who came to be known as the Frank Committee (http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB162/16.pdf), which included Leo Szilard and Glenn Seaborg, disagreed: ”We believe that these considerations make the use of nuclear bombs for an early, unannounced attack against Japan inadvisable. If the United States would be the first to release this new means of indiscriminate destruction upon mankind, she would sacrifice public support throughout the world, precipitate the race of armaments, and prejudice the possibility of reaching an international agreement on the future control of such weapons. “Much more favorable conditions for the eventual achievement of such an agreement could be created if nuclear bombs were first revealed to the world by a demonstration in an appropriately selected uninhabited area. "From this point of view a demonstration of the new weapon may best be made before the eyes of representatives of all United Nations, on the desert or a barren island (emphasis in the original). The best possible atmosphere for the achievement of an international agreement could be achieved if America would be able to say to the world, ‘You see what weapon we had but did not use. We are ready to renounce its use in the future and to join other nations in working out adequate supervision of the use of this nuclear weapon.’” The US did not realize how stretched thin and imperiled economically Japan was. The Japanese (& the rest of the world) did not know how little highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium we had. After bombing of Nagasaki, President Truman promised a "rain of ruin" if Japan did not surrender – it was a bluff. More civilians died in the conventional and fire bombings of Tokyo then Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. In the summer of 1945, the Soviets had not yet declared war on Japan; they indicated they would do so on 15 August 1945. Colonel Paul Tibbets flew the Enola Gay flew over Hiroshima on 6 Aug and 9 Aug Major Chaeles Sweeny commanded the B-29 that flew over Nagasaki.This was a narrow time period. The US did not want to see Japan divided as Europe had been. Secretary of War Henry Stimson considered the use of the atomic bomb against Japan to be the "least abhorrent choice." ----- The use of atomic bombs by the US occurred many years before I was born. I can’t change history. What I can learn is that I never want that to happen again. Lowering the barriers to the use of nuclear weapons is something to which I am opposed, whether that be via proliferation to non-nuclear weapons states (*any* of them) or the proposed exploration of B61-11s or development of new tactical nuclear weapons (e.g., the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator) for use as ‘bunker busters.’ VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That's a fantastic quote ... love the latter part! Amazing and humbling document! I disagree; it's superficially clever but incorrect. O'R has completely forgotten about the US Code. Title 26 ALONE runs to 9,471 pages and over 7 million words. There are 49 other Titles and then some appendices. THEN there are the State documents. Yes, you are precise in the literal sense w/r/t the US Code. The US Code has sections covering topics as disparate as the Space Shuttle, Chemical Weapons demilitarization, and internet pornography. All of which the drafters did not foresee. The U.S. Constitution is the framework for our great experiment in representative democracy. While we may disagree vehemently on who we would like to see occupy the Oval Office and the Capitol, very few Americans want to overturn the rule of law by representative democracy as conceived, debated, and put into practice by that group of imperfect men 220 years ago. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That's a fantastic quote ... love the latter part! Amazing and humbling document! VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I went to the link. Did you repeat the AKO search yourself? The assertions w/r/t HD, GB & VX in the water are more interesting and don't support "ChrisG's" credibility from a programmatic and a technical perspective (hydrolysis, degradation & persistence of less than pure HD, GB, & VX.) I know there are at least a *few* M272 water testing kits in Iraq. (The adequacy of that kit is a whole nother issue.) As to who has the "big" picture view: I agree that a big picture view is not going to come from the guy who is the literal boots on the ground with the more visceral, day-to-day view. Is *today's* PFC or company commander in a better position to provide that is a debate that I'd would love to listen to. A range of perspectives are incredibly valuable and taking both into account provides a more vivid data set on which to make analysis. I want all views (w/supporting data or acknowledgement of subjectivity) not just the 'narrow & deep' but also the 'wide.' And, perhaps, would not the DIA folks doing intelligence analysis have a critical view of the 'wide' perspective? Do you -- or does anyone -- want to argue that because a solder is Reserves, NG, IRR, or has the left the service (retired or separated) for a more lucrative contractor job, that the soldier's views are no longer valid? Aren't all active duty, active AR, and activated IRR & NG supposed to wear the same 'proverbial' green? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

No, actually....the media failed. There's no such thing as a "live" nuke. They can be "armed" but anymore, that happens after deployment. Even in a crash, they won't go off but unfortunately, truth doesn't sell newspapers or ad time. Agree - that the commercial media perhaps did not portray with technical accuracy the sophistication of US nuclear weapons systems. The use of a single word was not technically precise. Does that excuse or how is that relevant to the failure to follow SOPs? Should we ever lose accountability of our nuclear weapons? I wrote earlier of the importance of transparency: http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=2940747;#2940747 --- Coreece - Thanks for the update to the thread. Back in Sept (referenced post above) one of my purely speculative concerns was that this not as isolated incident, i.e., were the officers who leaked the story concerned regarding a re-occuring pattern? Which should not in any way be taken to assert/infer/whatever that such an incident occured previously - I don't have any evidence to suggest so -- but other concern regarding changes in attention to SOPs. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Apologies on the briefness. There's some good background on this in the Nuclear Test Personal Review Program (NTPR): http://www.dtra.mil/rd/programs/nuclear_personnel/index.cfm & http://www.dtra.mil/rd/programs/nuclear_personnel/atr.cfm US and other NWS military service members, as well as indigenous islanders, have been impacted by the health effects of ionizing radiation. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

QuoteWell, why would you? Through your hobby? Through the enjoyment of physically shooting something - it is fun! Or... Quote For something of different perspective, why do I have guns (not really why I want a gun?) Because it was a birthday present from my father when I turned 16. Isn’t that what every dad in America gives his daughter?

Thanks. Botkin's writings are fantastic! He's writing about incredibly complex systems in a very sophisticated way. He seems to be a realistic positivist -- strong belief in the ability of ecosystems to adapt, in human creativity, and in the positive application of science to solve problems through technological progress. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Based on this excerpt, it sounds like the author is responding to anti-technological backlash. Do you have a link to the full article? Piqued my interest.

Should the US? Why? .jim Q: Should the U.S. have nukes? A: Hell yeah! Q: Why? A: Because I said so. There's more too it than that ... unless you're being very stealth under-the-radar Mr. President -- --- -- Jim, It's a legitimate question that's worth talking about given the current proto-proliferation wave going on internationally, i.e., Iran, DPRK ... A short answer is because the NPT (& the ratifying US legislation, signed by President Nixon) says we can, along w/the other signatory nuclear weapons states pre-1969. Much-debated Article VI says also NWS will make efforts toward total disarmament ... it doesn't say when. One of my favorite nuc-related sites, which doesn't doesn't get a lot of visibiity, is http://www.acq.osd.mil/ncbdp/nm/ The front page summarizes another part of the argument: "Why Nuclear Matters .... "Nuclear weapons will continue to be a national security concern for the U.S. as long as nuclear weapon technologies exist in the hands of other nations or non-state entities." The US nuclear "umbrella" has provided an incentive for allies with latent technical capability to forgo developing independent arsenals. Would you believe that at one point Sweden and Norway seriously considered nuclear weapons programs? They were concerned about Soviets coming up over the Barent's sea (where Norway has a land border w/Russia). I wish the world were such that we could eliminate all nuclear weapons *and* be confident in complete global disarmament. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I thought they already had picked ('identified) 'their' choice for the 15th incarnation? The phrase "cultural genocide" is used by pro-Tibetan groups and exiles. The phrase 'genocide' needs to be used very carefully; it's debated. The ethnic Han Chinese population now exceeds ethnic Tibetans in Lhasa. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying