nerdgirl

Does anyone else recognize parallels w/Turkey & domestic Kurds ? The CIA also trained & armed Tibetan resistance fighters in the late 1950s through the 1970s ... even assisted a group in parachuting trained Tibetans to Lhasa. Lots of references out there: http://www.historynet.com/magazines/military_history/3025986.html http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0021-9118(200302)62%3A1%3C271%3ATCSWIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-%23 http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3821/is_200604/ai_n17179243 http://www.stanford.edu/dept/arc/programs/tibet_cia.html VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Did anyone else catch Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ speech to the Association of the US Army last week? Full text: http://www.defenselink.mil/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1181 In addition to praising the soldiers and noting the remarkable re-enlistment rates, he also said some things that are potentially controversial implications for the Army … & the other services. Excerpts, emphasis mine: “I would like to frame the discussion in two ways: -- First, what America owes the Army after six years of war; our first protracted conflict with an all-volunteer force since the American Revolution. -- And second, what the Army owes America – as it prepares to defend this country’s freedom and interests in the decades ahead “The U.S. Army today is a battle-hardened force whose volunteer soldiers have performed with courage, resourcefulness, and resilience in the most grueling conditions. They’ve done so under the unforgiving glare of the 24 hour news cycle that leaves little room for error, serving in an organization largely organized, trained, and equipped in a different era for a different kind of conflict. And they’ve done all this with a country, a government – and in some cases a defense department – that has not been placed on a war footing. “Put simply, our enemies and potential adversaries – including nation states – have gone to school on us. They saw what America’s technology and firepower did to Saddam’s army in 1991 and again in 2003, and they’ve seen what IEDs are doing to the American military today. It is hard to conceive of any country challenging the United States directly on the ground – at least for some years to come. “As a result of this stress, there has been a good deal of concern about the condition of the Army, leading some to speculate that it is “broken.” I think not. “But while the Army certainly is not broken, it is under stress, and, as General Casey puts it, ‘out of balance.’ “So when one considers what the nation owes the Army, the answer is a good deal. And it starts with gratitude and appreciation for the service and sacrifice of soldiers and their families. -- “One of the Army’s concerns you’ve heard about at this conference is getting back to training for ‘high intensity’ situations – a capability vitally important to deter aggression and shape the behavior of other nations. “It strikes me that one of the principal challenges the Army faces is to regain its traditional edge at fighting conventional wars while retaining what it has learned – and relearned – about unconventional wars – the ones most likely to be fought in the years ahead. “Indeed, history shows us that smaller, irregular forces – insurgents, guerrillas, terrorists – have for centuries found ways to harass and frustrate larger, regular armies and sow chaos. “We can expect that asymmetric warfare will remain the mainstay of the contemporary battlefield for some time. These conflicts will be fundamentally political in nature, and require the application of all elements of national power. Success will be less a matter of imposing one’s will and more a function of shaping behavior – of friends, adversaries, and most importantly, the people in between. “One of the challenges facing the Army will be how to incorporate the latest in technology without losing sight of the human and cultural dimensions of the irregular battlefield. For example, we have spent billions on tools and tactics to protect against IEDs. Yet, even now, the best way to defeat these weapons – indeed the only way to defeat them over the long run – is to get tips from locals about the networks and the emplacements or, even better, to convince and empower the Iraqis to prevent the terrorists from emplacing them in the first place. “The same is true for mastering foreign language – a particular interest of mine – and building expertise in foreign areas. And until our government decides to plus up our civilian agencies like the Agency for International Development, Army soldiers can expect to be tasked with reviving public services, rebuilding infrastructure, and promoting good governance. All these so-called ‘nontraditional’ capabilities have moved into the mainstream of military thinking, planning, and strategy – where they must stay. “In addition, arguably the most important military component in the War on Terror is not the fighting we do ourselves, but how well we enable and empower our partners to defend and govern their own countries. The standing up and mentoring of indigenous armies and police – once the province of Special Forces – is now a key mission for the military as a whole. How the Army should be organized and prepared for this advisory role remains an open question, and will require innovative and forward thinking.” “Finally, there is a generation of junior and mid level officers and NCOs who have been tested in battle like none other in decades. They have seen the complex, grueling face of war in the 21st century up close. They’ve lost friends and comrades. “These men and women need to be retained, and the best and brightest advanced to the point that they can use their experience to shape the institution to which they have given so much. And this may mean reexamining assignments and promotion policies that in many cases are unchanged since the Cold War." -- Is it totally off base to see a thematic -- not direct or literal -- connection between this speech, Gen Petreaus' July American Interest article, LtCol Yingling's Armed Forces Journal article, yesterday's Washington Post Op-Ed, the August NY Times Op-Ed? This is a span from the SecDef to "7 NCOs." (I can cite others ... PM if you want authors & links.) After every prolonged conflict the military has a re-evaluation. The big one after WWII led to the creation of the Defense Dept. Is this just an intellectual exercise? Is the part about promotions backlash/re-adjustment to the more pronounced politicization of general officer promotion that occurred during Secretary Rumsfeld's 2nd tenure? [/speculation] Post WWII, the US saw a strong civic presence of veterans both Democrats and Republicans - from Dole to Inouye - who entered into politics. While there are notable Vietnam veterans (Webb & Murtha come to mind immediately), the impact has not been the same. I think (hope!) that OIF & OEF will be more like WWII, which is one more reason why those Army Captains in particular are important. Most will not make Colonel. Those who leave will retain a direct connectivity. [/speculation] VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Foreign Policy put together a list of "World's Stupid Fatwas," which illustrates that like the lists of crazy state and local US laws that circulate the internet, strange policies are global: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3906 a lot the guys around here might actually endorse the spirit of the last one 1. Salman Rushdie Who: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini of Iran What: A fatwa is simply a religious ruling in Islam—most often, it seems, fatwas are about sexual matters—but Westerners usually associate the term with the notorious 1989 death sentence against British author Salman Rushdie. At the time, Khomeini was seeking to distract his followers from the pointless slaughter of the recently ended Iran-Iraq war, during which hundreds of thousands of Iranians were killed and wounded. Rushdie had just authored The Satanic Verses, an edgy novel about the origins of the Koran, and thus proved the perfect foil for Khomeini’s designs. Thousands of irate Muslims around the world protested the book as an insult to Islam. For a decade, Rushdie lived in hiding, fearing assassination for his “apostasy.” More recently, when Queen Elizabeth II knighted the author for his literary achievements, al Qaeda called for retaliation against Britain. And Khomeini’s successor, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, reversed his earlier position and said that the original 1989 fatwa remains in force. 2. Unclothed sex Who: Rashad Hassan Khalil, former dean of Islamic law at al-Azhar University in Cairo, Egypt What: When Khalil ruled in January 2006 that for married couples, “being completely naked during the act of coitus annuls the marriage,” liberal Egyptians howled with derision. Other scholars rejected Khalil’s logic on the grounds that everything but “sodomy” is halal in a marriage. Absorbing the criticism but seeking to appease religious conservatives, Abdullah Megawar, the fatwa committee chairman at al-Azhar, reached for an awkward compromise. Sure, he said, a husband and wife could see one other naked, but should not look at each other’s genitals. And they should probably have sex under a blanket, he added for good measure. 3. Pokémon Who: Saudi Arabia’s Higher Committee for Scientific Research and Islamic Law What: Denouncing the lovable Japanese cartoon characters as having “possessed the minds” of Saudi youngsters, Saudi Arabia’s highest religious authority banned Pokémon video games and cards in the spring of 2001. Not only do Saudi scholars believe that Pokémon encourages gambling, which is forbidden in Islam, but it is apparently a front for Israel as well. The fatwa’s authors claimed that Pokémon games include, “the Star of David, which everyone knows is connected to international Zionism and is Israel’s national emblem.” Religious authorities in the United Arab Emirates joined in, condemning the games for promoting evolution, “a Jewish-Darwinist theory that conflicts with the truth about humans and with Islamic principles,” but didn’t ban them outright. Even the Catholic Church in Mexico got into the act, calling Pokémon video games “demonic.” 4. Polio vaccine Who: Local mullahs in rural Pakistan What: Pakistan’s largest Islamist umbrella group, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), issued a fatwa in January 2007 endorsing the provincial government’s efforts to immunize children from polio in the country’s Northwest Frontier Province. But even though health workers carried copies of the ruling with them as they trudged across the province, The Guardian reported in February 2007 that the parents of some 24,000 children had refused to allow the workers to administer polio drops. It turns out that influential antistate clerics had been issuing their own fatwas denouncing the campaign as a Western plot to sterilize Muslims. Although Pakistan only saw 39 cases of polio last year and most children have now been immunized, a similar religiously motivated firestorm against polio drops in Nigeria in 2003 allowed the eradicable disease to spread to 12 new countries in just 18 months. 5. Breast-feeding Who: Ezzat Atiya, a lecturer at Cairo’s al-Azhar University What: Many Muslims believe that unmarried men and women should not work alone together—a stricture that can pose problems in today’s global economy. So one Islamic scholar came up with a novel solution: If a woman were to breast-feed her male colleague five times, the two could safely be alone together. “A woman at work can take off the veil or reveal her hair in front of someone whom she breast-fed,” he wrote in an opinion issued in May 2007. He based his reasoning—which was quickly and widely derided in the Egyptian press, in the parliament, and on Arabic-language talk shows—on stories from the Prophet Mohammed’s time in which, Atiya maintained, the practice occurred. Although Atiya headed the department dealing with the Prophet’s sayings, al-Azhar University’s higher authorities were not impressed. They suspended the iconoclastic scholar, and he subsequently recanted his ruling as a “bad interpretation of a particular case.” Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I would characterize it as realism taking precedence over idealism. [Putting aside for the moment speculation w/r/t which US political party, if either, are using anything for rhetorical or political purposes. You can consider that assumption like a round horse in a vacuum or an assumption of giving the benefit of the doubt to all.] It’s a foreign policy case where the moral imperative clashes with realist potentialities. Do we do the ‘right’ thing morally? I hope no one would argue that condemning grave atrocities is wrong in principal, especially given that one can be imprisoned for mentioning it in Turkey. If we (the US) want to be the shining city on the hill, the beacon of freedom, justice, and democracy (& I’m not writing that facetiously or sarcastically) is there an over-riding imperative to condemn grave injustices around the world? Do we give up our moral values so that we don’t anger some constituency in another country or because it might not be advantageous to us? How do we chose which injustices to which we object – Burma, Tibet, Liberia, Sudan. Frankly, the idealist position is one with which I have a tremendous ethical and intellectual empathy. I wish it worked that way … Turkey is a strong, long-time US ally and NATO member. I already mentioned the importance of Turkey in combating radical Islamists. They’re one of the few strong, long-standing Muslim democracies. They’re not part of the non-integrating gap (a la Tom Barnett). From a realist position ... & it does sounds callous, yes, ... the atrocious events happened in the past. There are lots of unrecognized/un-condemned atrocities that happened in the 20th century. (Doesn’t excuse any of them.) What tangible benefit does the US state get from issuing such a condemnation? Not a lot that I can see. It would not help the economy, healthcare, education, or securing the nation’s borders … that’s the hard-core realist argument. There are a lot of nuanced arguments in between. How likely is Turkey to follow through on threats versus lots of ‘face-saving’ political rhetoric? The resolution may say “Ottoman Empire” but very similarly to the way Iranians trace their Persian heritage back thousands of years as a point of pride, so do the modern Turks. I’m not an expert on Turkish politics. Turkey did cut off certain military activities with France after a condemnation of the Armenian genocide was passed there; I’m not sure at what level of govt that resolution was enacted. If this passes through the House, all the way to a floor vote, which looks less likely now, the US may be in the position to have it both ways. Secretaries Rice and Gates can fly over to Ankara and re-assure the Turkish president and military leaders that President Bush does not support the resolution, thereby ‘blaming’ it on the Democratic majority. (There’s an argument that disagreement makes us appear “weak” that I don’t accept – disagreement is a characteristic of a vibrant democracy.) There aren't easy answers. VR/Marg But I do need to start writing these up as Op-Ed pieces Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I would like to make a proposal that if a group is banding together to defend a prominent conservative, might you all consider other candidates? E.g., former SecDef Donald Rumsfeld (http://daily.stanford.edu/article/2007/9/18/donaldRumsfeldComingToStanford), who got >3800 folks to sign a petition objecting to his being associated with the Stanford's Hoover Instutitute. Or former World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Update: Dems Withdraw Support of Armenian Genocide Resolution (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,302497,00.html) “A House vote to label the century-old deaths of Armenians as genocide was in jeopardy Tuesday after several Democrats withdrew their support and sounded alarms it could cripple U.S. relations with Turkey. “The most notable Democratic challenge mounted this week came from Rep. John Murtha, an anti-war ally of Pelosi, D-Calif., and chairman of the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. Murtha fought against a similar measure 20 years ago. "From my discussions with our military commanders and foreign policy experts, I believe that this resolution could harm our relations with Turkey and therefore our strategic interests in the region," Murtha, D-Pa., said in an e-mailed statement on Tuesday.” There's a lot going on in Turkey beyond the House Committee vote. You can go back to 2003 when they refused to allow the Army's Fourth Infantry Division to cross Turkey in order to enter Iraq from the north. Northern Iraq has been functioning as an autonomous state for 10+ years … largely because of the UN-mandated no-fly zone (predominantly enforced by US military flights) post Desert Storm. The Iraq Kurds had (have?) the own representative to the UN (not full). More recently, France's Sarkozy making xenophobic statementa has further stoked Turkish popular feelings of alienation from the West. Beyond the critical value of Turkey for executing the war in Iraq, I would argue that we need them more than they need us in combating Islamist extremism. The westernized factions in Turkey are struggling to maintain power over the burgeoning Islamist elements, most of which aren’t Salafists but are way too far conservative im-ever-ho. [speculation] If one wants to practice foreign policy ‘crystal ball predictions’– Iran gets a nuclear bomb. Turkey has a latent technical capability for nuclear bomb. This August, Turkey’s Energy Minister said "Nuclear energy is not an option. It is a necessity. Turkey is a strong state and has to be strong in nuclear energy as well.” Loss of confidence in US drives Turkey to pursue nuclear weapons capability. That pushes Saudi Arabia to go nuclear … & Egypt … That’s not a crazy prediction. This National Intelligence Council-gathered group: (http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/events/recent/NuclearWeaponsProliferation2016Jul06_rpt.asp), voted Turkey among the most likely/plausible proliferant country (i.e., considered likely to have made an active decision to pursue nuclear weapons) by 2016. If Turkey elected to pull out of NATO, that would be a necessary but not sufficient step to push them toward nuclearization. [/speculation] There are no easy answers. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Based on their NY Times Op-Ed, "The Way We Saw It" (which I have to admit that I totally missed), the 7 NCOs concur w/the 12 Army O-3s. While not as specific in its recommendations, it is similar in tone:(http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/19/opinion/19jayamaha.html) “To believe that Americans, with an occupying force that long ago outlived its reluctant welcome, can win over a recalcitrant local population and win this counterinsurgency is far-fetched. As responsible infantrymen and noncommissioned officers with the 82nd Airborne Division soon heading back home, we are skeptical of recent press coverage portraying the conflict as increasingly manageable and feel it has neglected the mounting civil, political and social unrest we see every day.” At the same time, the most important front in the counterinsurgency, improving basic social and economic conditions, is the one on which we have failed most miserably. Two million Iraqis are in refugee camps in bordering countries. Close to two million more are internally displaced and now fill many urban slums. Cities lack regular electricity, telephone services and sanitation. ‘Lucky’ Iraqis live in gated communities barricaded with concrete blast walls that provide them with a sense of communal claustrophobia rather than any sense of security we would consider normal. “In a lawless environment where men with guns rule the streets, engaging in the banalities of life has become a death-defying act. Four years into our occupation, we have failed on every promise, while we have substituted Baath Party tyranny with a tyranny of Islamist, militia and criminal violence. When the primary preoccupation of average Iraqis is when and how they are likely to be killed, we can hardly feel smug as we hand out care packages. As an Iraqi man told us a few days ago with deep resignation, ‘We need security, not free food.’ "In the end, we need to recognize that our presence may have released Iraqis from the grip of a tyrant, but that it has also robbed them of their self-respect. They will soon realize that the best way to regain dignity is to call us what we are — an army of occupation — and force our withdrawal. "Until that happens, it would be prudent for us to increasingly let Iraqis take center stage in all matters, to come up with a nuanced policy in which we assist them from the margins but let them resolve their differences as they see fit. This suggestion is not meant to be defeatist, but rather to highlight our pursuit of incompatible policies to absurd ends without recognizing the incongruities." "We need not talk about our morale. As committed soldiers, we will see this mission through." Btw: two of the authors of that Op-Ed were killed in western Baghdad in September. [It’s gonna sound cheesy, ‘girlie,’ or whatever pejorative you want to assign – I cried when I read that .] Things are working in some areas and stabilization ops *can* be done. There have been US Special Operations Forces successfully deployed in the Philippines as counter-insurgency advisors, trainers, and in more active roles against Abu-Sayyaf (Islamists loosely affiliated with al Qa’eda). The Combined Joint Task Force in the Horn of Africa is quietly and with small numbers executing stabilization ops. (Relatively recent report: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/military/july-dec07/dijbouti_08-17.html; PBS & Newshour actually do a lot of positive, in-depth analysis and reports on military activities). VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

If I understand correctly the sited article from The Telegraph, it alludes to/intimates/accuses the MOD of a situation similar to what occurred at Walter Reed Army Medical Center (nee Hospital): (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/17/AR2007021701172.html), which was an embarrassment to the the DoD. The DoD Asst Secretary for Health Affairs (HA) lost his job and the Major General in charge of the facility was replaced. VR/Marg --- Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

It was at the start ... the Yahoo article (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071012/bs_nm/irs_income_dc) that initiated this thread was about an IRS study that found that a small group of billionaires in the US are "earning" a larger percentage of overall US income than ever before. Turns out (credit to Bob Litan, AEI & Brookings) that it's due to Wall Street hedge fund managers. These guys aren't Bill Gates-esque or Google-esque entrepeneurial folks that generate growth in the overall economy; they aren't CEOs either. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The piece Bill posted is from today's Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/15/AR2007101500841.html There’s also the much-discussed in active duty company and field officer community article by Lt Col Paul Yingling (USA) “A Failure of Generalship” from May’s Armed Forces Journal: http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2007/05/2635198. See also: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0CE1D9143CF935A1575BC0A9619C8B63. Really, there isn’t a cognitive dissonance to respect and critically analyze General Petreaus' words (including his AI article “Beyond the Cloister” [http://www.the-american-interest.com/ai2/article.cfm?Id=290&MId=14] in which he wrote “debates we imagined to be two-sided turn out to be three-, four, or more-sided,”) and the respect and critically analyze the voices of dissent. As I suspect many of you know, Captains and Navy Lieutenants matter because they are the ones who are getting the experience that is going to shape their careers as they go on to lead the services as field & general officers. VR/Marg … who also knows active duty and contractor personnel involved in training Iraqi army and police. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The largest US school disaster was due to explosives. I think it was dynamite not fertilizer-based bomb. It was back in the 1920's in rural Michigan. Approximately 50 kids (mostly) & adults died. The perpetrator did it in response to what he considered unfair taxes (to bring together 2 threads). After the bombing of the Murrah building in Oklahoma City, fertilizer (ammonium nitrate) did become an issue. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

2nd the very cool comment! Heck, the whole thread has been fun!

As Gray is arguing against the currently accepted hypothesis and arguing against the vetted models explaining the data, it is his responsibility to show why his arguments have the correct explanation, like Copernicus initially, like the guys who clung to flat earth theory post-Magellan, & like Pons & Fleishman w/cold fusion … …And ironically, like the folks who posited the initial observations asserting correlation in increase in hurricane activity and “global warming” (Webster, et al http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844 & Emanual http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v436/n7051/abs/nature03906.html, independent papers published in Sept & Aug 2005, respectively.) Pre-2005, scientists didn’t think that an impact would be seen this soon, so they weren’t looking for it … their analysis was initially challenged as well. If you look at Gray’s pre-2002 published work (e.g., http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/293/5529/474), he agrees that (1) there are more hurricanes and (2) ocean temps in the North Atlantic are increasing. “Here we address the question of whether or not the increase in activity reflects a long-term climate shift, as suggested by previous studies, and provide evidence that confirms this suggestion based on changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions.” Further on, Gray et al assert “The historical multidecadal-scale variability in Atlantic hurricane activity is much greater than what would be "expected" from a gradual temperature increase attributed to global warming. There have been various studies investigating the potential effect of long-term global warming on the number and strength of Atlantic-basin hurricanes. The results are inconclusive. The extreme activity in 1995 has been attributed in part to the record-warm temperatures in the North Atlantic. The possibility exists that the unprecedented activity since 1995 is the result of a combination of the multidecadal-scale changes in Atlantic SSTs (and vertical shear) along with the additional increase in SSTs resulting from the long-term warming trend. It is, however, equally possible that the current active period (1995-2000) only appears more active than the previous active period (1926-1970) due to the better observational network now in place. During the previous active period, only 1966-1970 had continual satellite coverage. Further study is essential to separate any actual increase from an apparent one due to more complete observations. “Although increased activity during a particular year does not automatically mean increased storm-related damages, years with high activity have a greater overall potential for disaster than years with low activity. Increased occurrence combined with dramatic coastal population increases during the recent lull, add up to a potential for massive economic loss. In addition, there remains a potential for catastrophic loss of life in an incomplete evacuation ahead of a rapidly intensifying system. Government officials, emergency managers, and residents of the Atlantic hurricane basin should be aware of the apparent shift in climate and evaluate preparedness and mitigation efforts in order to respond appropriately in a regime where the hurricane threat is much greater than it was in the 1970s through early 1990s.” Gray, et al present an alternative hypothesis with data for hurricanes in North Atlantic. That’s science. In 2005, Webster, et al. used Gray’s data in a re-evaluation to show correlation with CO2-based climate change models (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844). Of course, correlation is not causation. It gets more provocative with Gray’s more recent work, which does not appear to have made it to print: (http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/107533.pdf). He doesn't seem to have published anything other than his yearly hurricane predictions, which he reportedly does quite well, over the last few years. Some folks (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?cat=10) – more versed in climate and ocean physics than I – who have elaborated specifically where Gray is wrong: (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/04/gray-on-agw/ & http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/11/decrease-in-atlantic-circulation/). Apparently Gray has done some proverbial 'flip-flopping.' Nota bene: Those folks do also highlight technical errors in An Inconvenient Truth as well, although they do seem more forgiving of Gore than Gray: “There are a few scientific errors that are important in the film. At one point Gore claims that you can see the aerosol concentrations in Antarctic ice cores change "in just two years", due to the U.S. Clean Air Act. You can't see dust and aerosols at all in Antarctic cores — not with the naked eye — and I'm skeptical you can definitively point to the influence of the Clean Air Act. “Several of my colleagues complained that a more significant error is Gore's use of the long ice core records of CO2 and temperature (from oxygen isotope measurements) in Antarctic ice cores to illustrate the correlation between the two. The complaint is that the correlation is somewhat misleading, because a number of other climate forcings besides CO2 contribute to the change in Antarctic temperature between glacial and interglacial climate.” Gray’s ‘protogee’/successor to his hurricane monitoring project, funded by the NSF, has published: (http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/klotzbach2006.pdf), which also includes data showing an increase in hurricanes in the North Atlantic over the last 10 years. He’s publishing in response to the Webster and Emanuel papers. It’s climate epidemiology. Kinda cool.

I'm not sure what the connection between "real scientists" and Emeritus status is? Are you are arguing that one has to be executing experimental science in vivo, in vitro or in silico to be a scientist? There are those who would. There is a direct connection between Emeritus status and no longer having requirements to support an active research program, i.e., get grants and contracts. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Marc, Not sure how you got that out of my comment ... but I'll write more (not hard

Prof Gray is illustrating vividly the value of tenure. He's also Emeritus; so no, he doesn't have to worry about getting grants. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Like I responded to the poster who wrote “Do the gun lovers think that school massacres are just an unfortunate price that has to be paid so that they can keep their guns?” I think you’re asking the wrong question of what is a significant international security issue, i.e., US-Turkey relations, particularly with respect to logistical support of US military activities in the Middle East. Shutting down access to Incirlik would not be good (to put it diplomatically). As an illustrative example: it would be akin (& equally specious, im-ever-ho) to suggest that because then-Secretary of State Powell and other USG representatives met with Taliban leaders as late as May 2001 and because the US offered >$40M in assistance that Colin Powell or President Bush are cuplable for activities of the Taliban, Of course, they're not. Nor would Speaker Pelosi be responsible for the actions of Turkey or the PKK, which I’m sure you know have been waging a low-intensity effort for separate Kurdish state in Turkey for over 20 years. Has there been serious concern about the potential for a civil war in Turkey for years? Yes. How would the scenario you outlined be in the interest of Turkey’s pursuit of EU membership, which they really want, along with the close to (or more than?) annual $300M in foreign assistance from the US? Is Pelosi responding to her constituents? Yes. Is that the point of a republic? Yes. Is it well-timed? No. Is it likely to be meaningful historically? That’s debatable. Is this an example where being “PC” can be important for international affairs? Yes, it’s one part of diplomacy. If this statement would have passed out of Committee and been voted on by the House in 2000 or early 2001 would it have been as big of an issue? Maybe not. Is the current Turkish government in denial? Yes, it's in their constitution that you can be jailed for mentioning it (& people have been). Is it a moral imperative? Someone else can make the normative arguments. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Today's Meet the Press: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3898804/ (currently being replayed on C-Span radio, http://www.c-span.org/) is spending an hour addressing many of the themes discussed here, including the role of racism, drug sentencing laws, education, out of wedlock children, culture (principally 'gansta rap'), domestic violence, and sexism. "The path from victims to victors" "Exclusive! Entertainer and Activist Bill Cosby and Harvard Medical School Professor Dr. Alvin Poussaint tackle the controversial and complicated issues facing black communities across America with an in-depth discussion about their new book, "Come On, People: On the Path from Victims to Victors." They will join us in studio to discuss the alarming statistics of "black on black" violence and high school drop out rates, as well as the growing need for parental responsibility. Cosby and Poussaint have spent the last three years listening and talking about these issues in what they call "community call-outs" across the nation -- they'll be our guests for the full hour on Sunday." Book excerpts: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21279731/ VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Does anyone have good figures on what percentage are actually working family farms that have tax liability? My guestimate is that there are a small number of very powerful stories that do represent unfair situations but that those cases represent a small percentage overall (how small is the question?) that could be remedied by an exception for true family farms and businesses. Some States have already incorporated provisions to protect true family farms and businesses into their tax codes. (Of course, if one is opposed to all inheritance taxes, it's a non-sequitor.) VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Agree - I have phrased it that the initial civilian planners of OIF in OSD and WH needed more realists and fewer idealists. The well-recognized lack of planning -- which was a decision -- for Stage 4, 'winning the peace' did not help either. While it may sometimes get lost in the rhetoric, most folks around here get that complexity. One question that I have (& it's not directed at anyone specifically), for the high capability level of the US military and the amount of American taxpayer dollars being sent to the sandbox, should we not expect something positive be occurring? Many folks have issue with the rate of change. This is the issue of stabilization and reconstruction ops (that I keep harping on). Could you show some examples of folks who advocated ignoring the post-invasion situation? As counterexamples, I can describe lots of non-uniformed folks who have been involved from before OIF started through today. These are efforts by individual citizens inside and outside the USG whose renumerations are a lot closer to service members than what the private military contractors receive (less seen and less unrecognized, perhaps?) -- From the State Dept experts on Iraqi ethnic divisions who were sent back to the State Dept by the civilian OSD Policy leadership during the planning stages of the war. -- To the group that I worked with in Sulaymania in 2004 to bring Iraqi profs up to speed on advancements in science & technology during the previous 15 year of sanctions. -- To folks like Montgomery McFate, (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/04/29/CMGHQP19VD1.DTL), Larry Diamond (http://www.stanford.edu/~ldiamond/), and Skip Burkle (http://www.jephc.com/Profiles/skip2.cfm) Agree. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Not quite the same thing as what you're suggesting, but there have been a number of years in which the committee did not award the prize, notably during most of WWI & WWII. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Those are all viable candidates. There have been a number of recipients who have been small, citizen-organized efforts, e.g., last year's recipients, Muhammed Yunas & the Grumman Bank; also Jody Williams & Campaign to Ban Landmines; Joseph Rotblat & Pugwash Science and Intl Affairs; Wangari Maathi; Herb Abrams & Intl Physicians Against Nuclear War; and the YMCA. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Last reported case in the US - 2003. http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5639md.htm#tab1 VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Update reported in the NY Times: I remain very skeptical. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/14/washington/14weapons.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin "WASHINGTON, Oct. 13 — Israel’s air attack on Syria last month was directed against a site that Israeli and American intelligence analysts judged was a partly constructed nuclear reactor, apparently modeled on one North Korea has used to create its stockpile of nuclear weapons fuel, according to American and foreign officials with access to the intelligence reports. "The description of the target addresses one of the central mysteries surrounding the Sept. 6 attack, and suggests that Israel carried out the raid to demonstrate its determination to snuff out even a nascent nuclear project in a neighboring state. The Bush administration was divided at the time about the wisdom of Israel’s strike, American officials said, and some senior policy makers still regard the attack as premature. "By contrast, the facility that the Israelis struck in Syria appears to have been much further from completion, the American and foreign officials said. They said it would have been years before the Syrians could have used the reactor to produce the spent nuclear fuel that could, through a series of additional steps, be reprocessed into bomb-grade plutonium." "Many details remain unclear, most notably how much progress the Syrians had made in construction before the Israelis struck, the role of any assistance provided by North Korea, and whether the Syrians could make a plausible case that the reactor was intended to produce electricity. In Washington and Israel, information about the raid has been wrapped in extraordinary secrecy and restricted to just a handful of officials, while the Israeli press has been prohibited from publishing information about the attack." "The New York Times reported this week that a debate had begun within the Bush administration about whether the information secretly cited by Israel to justify its attack should be interpreted by the United States as reason to toughen its approach to Syria and North Korea. In later interviews, officials made clear that the disagreements within the administration began this summer, as a debate about whether an Israeli attack on the incomplete reactor was warranted then." "The officials did not say that the administration had ultimately opposed the Israeli strike, but that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates were particularly concerned about the ramifications of a pre-emptive strike in the absence of an urgent threat." “'There wasn’t a lot of debate about the evidence,' [which can be interpreted two ways -- the evidence was overwhelming ... or the debate emphasized politics and whatever evidence proposed was unchallenged] and said one American official familiar with the intense discussions over the summer between Washington and the government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel. 'There was a lot of debate about how to respond to it.' "Behind closed doors, however, Vice President Dick Cheney and other hawkish members of the administration have made the case that the same intelligence that prompted Israel to attack should lead the United States to reconsider delicate negotiations with North Korea over ending its nuclear program, as well as America’s diplomatic strategy toward Syria, which has been invited to join Middle East peace talks in Annapolis, Md., next month." VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Latest: Leaders of the resistance detained: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7042885.stm Monks disappeared: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1670876,00.html I'd like to see (but am not expecting it) all of the members of the UN Security Council support their envoy. Edited to add: link to some of the most extensive, graphic and brutal videos from Yangbon, courtesy of Al Jazeera English: Pt 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UqQaizM15Q Pt 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2goTVC5g3M&NR=1 VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying