nerdgirl

... he or she would most likely be uncurrent or marginally current, at best. Would like to see it tho'! Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks for the additional info! (The article is available to members of the Academy. those with individual subscriptions, or access to institutional subscriptions.) The authors used R0 1.6-2.4, which appears reasonable. There was a large-scale national exercise of a smallpox outbreak a few years back, Dark Winter, in which the planners used an R0 of 10, which is way too high. A reasonable R0 is ~3. Since its effect is exponential, it led to a scenario in which a whole lot more people were infected (& notionally "died"). Most (but not all!) modellers have learned from the Dark Winter episode. If it was just a bunch of academic scientists arguing about the merits of a model, that would be one situation. The potential impact, however, for resource allocation, hype, etc. extends far beyond academic settings. Marg PNAS abstract (www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/0601266103v1): "Recent human deaths due to infection by highly pathogenic (H5N1) avian influenza A virus have raised the specter of a devastating pandemic like that of 1917-1918, should this avian virus evolve to become readily transmissible among humans. We introduce and use a large-scale stochastic simulation model to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population of 281 million individuals for R0 (the basic reproductive number) from 1.6 to 2.4. We model the impact that a variety of levels and combinations of influenza antiviral agents, vaccines, and modified social mobility (including school closure and travel restrictions) have on the timing and magnitude of this spread. Our simulations demonstrate that, in a highly mobile population, restricting travel after an outbreak is detected is likely to delay slightly the time course of the outbreak without impacting the eventual number ill. For R0 < 1.9, our model suggests that the rapid production and distribution of vaccines, even if poorly matched to circulating strains, could significantly slow disease spread and limit the number ill to

Hmmm, the press release notes R0 without fully explaining how important that part of the model is. R0 is a measure of how effective an infectious disease is transmitted. It's very important in constructing meaningful models. If R0 is less than zero, one person infects less then one other person -- the disease does not spread. Getting an R0 of zero is a combination of the characteristics of the bug and the success of public health intervention efforts (vaccination, quarantine). If R0 equals 1, 1 person infects 1 other person. If R0 is greater than zero, than the infection can potentially be exponential. Currently the R0 for human infection of H5N1 is much less than 1. Speculate that these researchers used a value from 1917-1918. That may be reasonable or may not. By comparison, the R0 for the 1957-1958 pandemic “Asian flu” A (H2N2), for which there no vaccine, was 1.7. Measles pre-vaccine R0 was 14-18. Polio is 5-7. Tuberculosis is 2 Ebola is 1.34 - 1.8. AIDS is 0.34 - 1.5 ppneumonic plague is 0.8 - 3.0. The choice of too low an R0 value will yield a model in which disease spread is unrealistically slow and may give a false sense of ease of response and disease control. Conversely, if a selected R0 value is too high, an equally unrealistic scenario will result, which overly weighs the threat of one agent. I'm interested in what R0 they used. marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

My thoughts go out to your family for their safety. In the case of embedded DU: The results of one set of tests (1994-1998) in animal models by the DOD, more specifically by the Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute (AFRRI), showed increased systematic levels of uranium and some indicators of bad things, but not at the level many critics and commentators would suggest: http://deploymentlink.osd.mil/du_library/reports/projects/dod7a.htm Follow-on studies, that were elevated to the level of a Biomedical Defense Technology Objective (DTO) -- these are high-visibility Science & Technology efforts within the DOD -- concluded in 2004. It was found that DU induced mutations in a marker gene in vitro (that is, not in live subjects but in cultured human cells). The effect, if any, that mutation might have on humans is not known decisively. Within that DTO effort, studies of what was initially though to be a control compound, tungsten-nickel-cobalt alloys (W-Ni-Co), were found to be more cancer-causing than depleted uranium: http://carcin.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/22/1/115. That reference (full-text available freely) also contains references to other technical papers (aka primary data) on the effects of DU. Here's a link to a review of DU teratogenicity (causing birth defects): http://www.ehjournal.net/content/4/1/17. Two caveats: (1) none of that is epidemiology. Given everything else that might be happening, is there a significant increase in specific observed symptoms and effects associated with DU, either embedded or inhaled? As far as I am aware there are no credible epidemiological studies showing a connection between DU & any long-term physiological outcomes (beyond those who were killed by kinetic effects or fire). For a lot of reasons, foremost humans who have been in situations where they may have been exposed to DU often may have been exposed to other nasty things, it's hard to de-convolute/deconflict out the cause(s). (2) Inhaled is different. If the particles are sized such that they embed deep in the lungs (the alveoli), then cancer is not unexpected. That's the basic cause behind silicosis and asbestos-caused cancer. blue skies, marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks for the very thoughtful post. I’m not convinced that the images -- 4 1/2 years on -- should be hidden and removed from the on-going discussions. From my perspective, I *do* think enough time has elapsed that such images can be brought back to the discussion. How does one do that non-sensationalistically? You have in this post; from your description, the documentary you saw may have. It sounds like the documentary’s producers took very seriously the potential power of one of those WTC jumper images, & perhaps were inspired by the possibility of using that power to think more deeply about the event. I base my opinion/assessment largely on recent personal experiences (& why they are significant should be evident). Last week I had dinner with two fire chiefs from NYC, along with some other awesome fire officers (... before speaking to a larger group of fire officers). I let them initiate any conversation regarding the WTC attack. They know I skydive. They brought up BASE-jumping from the WTC, which I also do but typically don’t speak about in my professional life. While it’s not the same as the jumpers after the attack, I interpreted a change in the tone of the conversation and the attitudes that they expressed, that I would not have seen a year or two ago. Namaste, marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Syriana is phrase that has/had been used in the intelligence community (IC) and DC think-tanks (populated by former members of the IC) to generally refer to a more US-friendly middle East. I get the impression that it was a popular concept in the 1990s. Someone already mentioned Bob Baer's book. One of the things that I most liked about the movie was that it left a great deal, like much of the ending and motivations of the main characters, up to the viewer's interpretation. The film inspired a conversation on the lack of rewards for ethical behavior and the lack of negative consequences for unethical behavior between myself (non-IC) and an IC (analyst not operations) friend with whom I saw the movie. marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Congratz! Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

My condolences to Tom's family and loved ones. I met Tom at the Potato Bridge in Oct 03. He has a cameo on my FJC video that never fails to make me smile. From a floater exit, he looks at the camera and asks "Do you want a count?" Upon getting an affirmative answer, Tom responds, "Okay, ... one" and jumps. Blue skies, Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I "believe" in evolution like I "believe" in other scientific theories, such as gravity; electromagnetism; "germ theory," i.e., bacteria and viruses cause infectious diseases (not "bad spirits," the evil witch down the lane, etc.); atomic theory; (mathematical) group theory; clonal selection theory (immunity) ... Marg

Going to the text of the conference report, http://news.com.com/pdf/ne/2005/Final_Conference_Report.pdf, the legislation is both more expansive and more restrictive than the news.com article implies. (See pages 34-37 of the pdf file.) In addition to photographing or videotaping, if an individual "knowingly and without lawful permission -- ... surveils, diagrams, or otherwise collects information with the intention to plan or assist in planning" ... "terrorist attacks or other violence against railroad carriers and against mass transportation systems." Violent acts against transportation infrastructure are defined to include, but not limited to, anyone who knowingly "sets fire to, undermines, makes unworkable, ... any -- tunnel, bridge, viaduct, trestle, track ... or any other structure, property, or appurtenance used in the operation of, or support of the operation of ..." transportation infrastructure. Namaste, marg Note: Opinions are mine alone. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks to all who replied on dz.com and privately. Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

This is a cross between a rant and hope for solidarity. A few days ago a good friend and an excellent RW skydiver and very good free flyer from the Midwest visited me in DC. While she has made a couple BASE jumps (i.e., 1-3) from a single A local to her (on someone else’s gear, packed and configured by another jumper, and without any expressed intent to continue in BASE), she repeatedly asserted that a “jump from a 3000 ft cliff is just a skydive.” With only 25 BASE jumps (including some from those beautiful legal Norwegian fjord cliffs), I don’t consider myself an expert on anything BASE. Is this just a repeat of a common misassumption (“misunderestimation”?) by skydivers about BASE, or do any active BASE jumpers really consider terminal E’s, “just a skydive”? Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Cooperative threat reduction (CTR) is fundamentally a bipartisan effort, hence the various iterations of the Nunn-Lugar-Domenici Acts. The Russian work -- nuke, chem & bio -- is primarily managed and executed by the DoD's Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), formerly the Defense Nuclear Agency. One argument (not mine) is that based on the evidence that non-state actors (i.e., terrorists) have not obtained fissile material demonstrates that "enough" has been done. This argument maintains that the US should invest just enough of the US taxpayer dollars in Russia to maintain non-acquisition by terrorists. If you dig around a little you can find lots of reasons, rhetoric and some airing of dirty laundry on stagnation of CTR efforts, from liability disagreements to disputes over alleged espionage efforts/aggressive oversight (all depends on where you're sitting metaphorically and literally) to misappropriation of funds (by Russian localities & US contractors). "Pork" is not *just* a US custom. See some of my references from an earlier post http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=1738439;#1738439 on nuclear terrorism. PM me if you want to know more, CTR is one of my fave topics! ... and everything i write is my personal opinion not official position. marg

Perhaps, even more amusing is the rebuttal, which offers DARPA funding as evidence of govt collusion on the part of the MIT authors (http://zapatopi.net/blog/?post=200511112730.afdb_effectiveness), thereby calling into question both their methodology and conclusions. Truth is stranger than The Onion ? marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Little probability of use for the BASE community: I'm S&T Adviser for bugs & gas to some guys in The (5-sided) Building.

There's an old joke/truism: ask two scientists the same question and you'll get three different answers. It might be worth considering that as the media might present somewhat less than technically precise portrayals of skydivers and skydiving, the same applies to most scientific research, especially that which is a moving target changing daily. Most scientists are fond (to put it mildly) of error bars and accustom to dealing with uncertainties (if nothing else limitations of instrumentation resolution), the media and policy-makers in DC are less comfortable. marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Wrong................Tamiflu is very effective in controlling the life cycle of this virus in the host. The only really bad side effect seen so far was a Vietnamese girl that was taking a low dose of Tamiflu BEFORE she ever contracted the virus. She was taking care of a sick family member. This induced an anti-viral resistant strain of the virus. By some coincidence (i.e., an open meeting at NAS), I was speaking with the Sergey Netesov (Deputy Director of VECTOR [yeah, that one in Russia]) about avian influenza today. There have been multiple incidents in China in which individuals have been taking Tamiflu prophylactically, were exposed to H5N1 and developed Tamiflu-resistant influenza. He did not know whether they responded to Glaxo's Relenza(TM), as the Vietnamese girl reported in Nature. VR, marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I'll be there

Any one else notice the 1 August cover of The Scientist (magazine roughly equivalent to Time for life scientists)? Appears to have an old "Jump for the Cause" photo on the cover. Pretty cool. http://www.the-scientist.com/2005/08/01 marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

For those interested in hearing more from Victor Hanson on preventative defense, the role of the UN, and the U.S. in Iraq check out: http://www.uncommonknowledge.org/900/939.html Some context: Victor Hanson is Hoover Institute Fellow, which is fairly conservative place (just in case anyone wasn’t already aware of that). Steve Stedman is affiliated with Stanford’s CISAC, generally a more liberal leaning place. Steve was tapped to chair Annan’s High Level on Threats, Challenges and Change. I don’t know Slaughter. Even within those characterizations, broad generalizations are difficult, e.g., Sid Drell (physics prof, former Stanford Linear Accelerator deputy director, and co-founder of the JASONs) co-founded CISAC and is a Hoover Fellow. Condoleeza Rice came to Stanford as a CISAC fellow. Uncommon Knowledge is funded by the Olin Foundation, which generally supports more conservative endeavors, e.g., Harvard’s Olin Institute, which is similar in outlook to Hoover. marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

A list of actions taken by the UN, the Security Council and the General Assembly of member states is available at http://www.un.org/terrorism/sc.htm. Immediately following the September 11th attacks, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1373 explicitly condemning the attacks on NYC, the Pentagon and recognizing the loss of life in Pennsylvania. 1373 imposed sweeping legal obligations on all 191 UN member states focusing on freezing terrorist assets and non-military civil methods. 1373 also acknowledged the inherent right of each member state to self-defense within international law. Res 1373 also established the Counter Terrorism Committee (CTC) facilitating intergovernmental assistance in interdicting terrorist activities in smaller member states without the vast resources of the US. It's complementary to the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). If the two could 'play well together' it would work even better! UN Res 1540 http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N04/328/43/PDF/N0432843.pdf was passed in 2004, which is something of an omnibus anti-terrorism resolution. A significant portion of the UN work has focused on traditional non-proliferation and arms control means - strengthening inspections via the IAEA, resurrecting the Biological Weapons Convention, securing loose 'nukes' and unsecured/undersecured fissile material in Russia. Annan's High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change also recognized terrorism as a key challenge for the UN. When the UN was charted, sixty years ago, the focus was on strengthening states. Now, the focus has shifted to protecting people. blue skies, marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Of potential interest: NTI's Last Best Chance (was given the DVD a few weeks ago but have not had chance to watch it.) http://lastbestchance.org/index.html "Last Best Chance is a docudrama that shows the threat posed by vulnerable nuclear weapons and materials around the world and underscores what the stakes are. "In the movie, al Qaeda operatives organize three separate operations aimed at getting nuclear weapons. The material is then fabricated into three crude nuclear weapons by small groups of trained terrorists, who have recruited bomb-making experts to help them manufacture their weapons. "Governments around the world discover clues to the plot, but are unable to uncover the scheme before the weapons are en route to their destinations. The film clearly demonstrates that the hardest job for terrorists is gaining control of a nuclear weapon or material. Because the governments had failed to take sufficient action to secure or destroy the nuclear weapons material, they are helpless to prevent an attack. "The film stars Fred Thompson and features an epilogue moderated by Tom Brokaw." A couple other items of potential interest -- non-sensationalistic, grounded in hard-core science but written for a non-technical audience: "Communicating Nuclear Risk: Informing the Public about the Risks and Realities of Nuclear Terrorism," http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20063/NuclearRisk.pdf, contributors include Sig Hecker (LANL) and Mike May (former LLNL director/Stanford), and Graham Allison's prolific work: http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/publication_list_by_person.cfm?item_id=222. marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Some of us do try to teach what you outline. Sometimes we succeed

Did Osama Bin Laden really name this organization in our letters? Wouldn't he have named it in Arabic, and hence there wouldn't actually be a "correct" spelling in English (since we're just trying to phonetically simulate the arabic words)? Tom - You're right about the transliteration issue. As far as I am aware, Osama (or Usama) bin Laden has made no official English transliteration. Linguists debate about whether there is a formal "i" sound in Arabic, so that's why the "Al Qa'eda" spelling is sometimes touted as 'most correct' to name that part of the global salafist jihad. Similar observation w/r/t to spelling the Libyan leader's name, who at one point did indicate a prefered Romanized transliteration (which I don't remember, anyone?). It's also an issue with Asian languages and leaders, e.g., South Korea's President Roh Moo-hyun (his preference, using one system) objects to the CIA's use of "No Mu-hyun" (using a different system.) marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I disagree. I think there are terrorist cells in each of the cities in the running and which ever one got it is the cell that got active. I think that the G8 is a coincidence. I'm inclined to suspect the attack was linked to the G8 summit. Soft targets. Economic infrastructure. Characteristic of the 'global Salafist jihad.' Beyond the reported claims, multiple plots have been interdicted in UK over the last 18 months. It's also not the first time the G7/G8 has been targeted by terrorists, although in a different time by a very different group. In protest of the 1985 G7 economic summit meeting in Bonn, a leftist group -- the Revolutionary Cells (RZ) -- detonated multiple bombs at office buildings symbolic of major German business and banking industries. On 29 April 1985, a bomb detonated in front of an office of Hoechst A.G., at the time a major West German chemical and pharmaceutical company. Two other bombs were directed at a Deutsch Bank-affiliated structure in Cologne and at the headquarters of an aerospace industry trade organization. Four days later a bomb exploded along an outer wall of a building used by a French Hoechst subsidiary in Cologne. Another larger bomb was disarmed before it detonated in the courtyard of the main West German defense contractor, the Defense Technical Procurement Agency in Koblefz. No fatalities or casualties were reported in any of the incidents. They were highly symbolic targets. The bombings were timed to coordinate with the arrival of leaders from the seven major economic powers of the world for the annual summit. Condolences to all affected. marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying