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Everything posted by SafecrackingPLF
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I know we can't talk about the recovered canopy just yet, but I can't shake the feeling that it would be so easy to go over there this weekend, ask the kids where it came from, and get the harness. Does anyone know if a harness from back then would have the data card? Wouldn't it be fairly quick to take a glance at it and see if it said "Cossey" on it or not? But yet, it's better to wait 2-3 weeks to get a tentative match?
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I don't think Cooper ever got a knapsack like he requested. Yet another reason I do not believe Guru's hypothesis when he said the banker would get fired for giving Cooper a zipper-free bag with no water resistant treatment. If anything, they'd get fired for not giving Cooper the knapsack he requested. I guess on some level, Cooper just had to go with it. Dummy harness, lousy money bag... oh well, I'd rather get going now than to make them get it right.
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Nothing wrong with playing devil's advocate. The things you mention are all discussed in the Real McCoy. The theory is that he lost the money and learned/improved the next time around. I can give you a ton of reasons why it wasn't McCoy, including his whereabouts, age, MO, and (IMO the chief among the reasons) proof that he did not "lose" the money. I know there are a handful of people here who still do not see "the proof" as actual proof... but I guess that it boils down to how much a person accepts the facts in the FBI file. I accept them. Others don't. It's not meant to bait a discussion, only that there are reasons for someone not to believe it was McCoy. You're right, extreme nerves do horrible things to the digestive system. I can easily imagine Cooper being forced into the lavatory because his andrenaline short cut his body.
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I've always felt that McCoy's heist was much better executed than Cooper's. He specified a location to fly, he (may have) had his own gear with him, and he wore a disguise amongst other improvements. McCoy's problem was his big mouth and his leaving behind prints. So confirmation on Cooper actually using the lavatory during the heist. WOW... do people still think he had it all planned flawlessly?
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Line AB did not account for variation "tolerance" in the flight path. The map included such half nautical mile variance, but the calculated drift lines and points were derived using the actual USAF radar points. The following is directly from that document with names removed when applicable. January 9, 1972 FBI calculated landing area map & explanation details: Aircraft position from USAF radar data from McChord AFB Probable jump time (0411 GMT) from an analysis of the recorded communication from the flight relative to the cabin pressure flucuation. Flight tests conducted on January 6 confirmed that the pressure flucuation almost certainly occured at the time the HJ left the airplane. Wind information from 10,000' MSL to the ground as determined by NWA Meteorlogy Chief. Human body trajectories from data furnished by The Boeing Company (free-fall) and NWA Pilot (parachute open condition) who is an expert parachutist. Time correlation from the above USAF radar information and from the NWA communications network tape recording. Airplane airspeed and altitude from the airplane's flight recorder. The debate will rage forever unless a positive ID can be made on the recovered canopy. The question everyone has to ask themselves is to what degree they trust the inputs that were used in calculating the probable landing area. Shifting the timeline out several minutes would indicate there was a gigantic amount of error in one of the inputs. Shifting the location east would indicate a gigantic error in the USAF radar. On last night's Unsolved History, I was able to freeze frame on Roy Haggard's map. He had the location of the recovered ransom (which was an erroneous location) and a flight path with timeline marked on a map. According to Roy Haggard's map and calculated timeline, the plane would have crossed the Columbia River at 8:18. If the timeline is truly 8:15-8:20 instead of the calculated 8:11, it would be nice to know what changes in data input were deemed to be inaccurate, and why.
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low_pull1 John Kallend was the guy someone told me to get in touch with regarding the money bag calculations. I think he's on this site if I'm not mistaken. I visited the site, but couldn't see any tools that would immediately answer my questions. We'll have to ask him specifically. SKYWHUFFO, Your question was one I worried someone would ask. I don't know if I can "calculate" the exact MSL, but I could probably give you a round about clue. Point A was a no-pull. Point U was deploying 2500 MSL. Point B was pulling immediately. If you extroplate a parallel line from where I think Ckret was pointing to in the video, and calculate its distance for a parallel point of point A, I get 2.45 miles from the "no pull". The total distance between points A & B are about 3.8 miles. The area I thought Ckret was pointing to in the video was 1.35 miles from pulling immediately, but 2.4 miles from not pulling. It would seem that he pulled sooner rather than later (if this was Cooper's canopy). But when I look at wind speed (the information I have is incomplete), I come up with an answer between 6,000 to 5,000 MSL, but I'm using maximum drift with no crabbing and I'm not smart enough to know if he'd drift perfectly with the wind (he goes the same speed as the wind). This is directly from the FBI file regarding that search zone map: "the most favorable search areas, listed in their order of priority, would be as follows: Point A Along line A-B favoring the segment between U and B South of Line A-B North of Line A-B. It goes without saying, the alledged canopy was effectively found between U and B.
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Seems there was some confusion about the questions I was asking. Specifically about Cooper pointing out the city of Tacoma from the air. This happened while the plane was en route to Seattle. Ckret said it happened while the plane was circling around during the 30 minute delay. The plane was not allowed to land until the money and parachutes were ready. The plane finally landed at around 5:40 According to the US Naval Observatory: Sunset 4:25 p.m. End civil twilight 4:59 p.m. The "point" I was trying to make wasn't really a point. I was asking everyone's opinion of what Cooper's comments could have implied about him. For example, the last time I flew into Seattle, it was late at night and my wife had the window seat. Looking out the window, she commented on Bellevue, Mercer Island, the 520 and 90 bridges... but when I looked over her shoulder, I was disoriented and couldn't figure out what direction we were going and what everything was until I spent a few seconds figuring it out. It should be noted, my field of vision was fairly small since I was sitting two seats over (no one was in the middle seat). What could you infer about my wife from her taking the time to comment about those places from the air? In other words, would someone who flies the NW all the time get excited enough to even mention the city from the air? Or, would you think they're trying to show how much they know by pointing it out? Could that knowledge be gained simply through knowing the area well from the ground and figuring it out by looking out the window? For those who watched the Unsolved History last night (or know the episode well), I definitely found some errors in the show. But for now, I'd like to quote Rataczak's statements: "In this note, he demanded four parachutes. Two back packs, two chest packs. He wanted 200 thousand dollars in US currency and he wanted it in a knapsack, and he wanted no funny stuff. He'd given us the following demands: the aircraft would be flown at 10,000 feet with the flaps down, the gear down, and the demand later came that he wanted the flaps to be put at 15º. He had done some homework or possibly had some flight time. I don't know. The stairs immediately reacted by becomming abrubtly closed and we could feel a huge pressure bump in our ears. So I quickly got onto the air traffic control center and said, 'I think our friend just took leave of us.'" - Co-Pilot Bill Rataczak
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I wasn't commenting on targeting. I was commenting on an off the cuff remark about Tacoma while the plane was en route to Seattle. I thought it would still be light outside, but I could be mistaken. Orange1, 10k, 20k, 30k, 40k... irrelevant to the discussion. He noted Tacoma from the air upon descent into SeaTac. I don't know what time this comment was made, so I can't tell you the lighting conditions. I'm not sure if it was dark yet or not. Further, Cooper wasn't pointing out particular buildings, was he? I think he just made mention of a city near the water.
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I would say no, not at night I'm fairly sure that when they flew over it heading north, it was still light out. I can't remember the exact twilight time, but I did post it before on the prior thread. Also, here's a curious thought: If someone is sitting there and says "hey, there's Tacoma"... would that sound like someone who flies over it frequently, or is there nothing to infer from the comment?
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Strat, Do you think it would be possible for a typical person, lacking aviation or airplane experience in the area, to pick out major points along the I-5 corridor if they also knew those areas from the ground? I could fly over Vegas right now and point out all the hotels from the air, even if I only studied a map of the strip. Were the 9-11 hijackers experienced in flying over New York or DC? (no), but they knew it from looking at maps (and in that case, video game sims). Therefore, would it be a foregone conclusion that Cooper had to have experience flying over McChord, Tacoma, or Seattle? Or would having a very good sense of direction and familiarity with landmarks be good enough? This thread suddenly got interesting! Thank you!
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Ckret, One of the biggest question marks is the money bag. We've heard all kinds of ideas about it... no top, zippered top, waterproof, water resistant, not air tight but wrapped really well, canvas, no way it was canvas... the list goes on and on. Honestly, what is known about the money bag? I would like to do a float time test, but I need to know more about the bag (otherwise the experiment is pointless). This was on my agenda for phone calls... but if you've learned more in the last month, your insight will serve us greatly. I'm assuming you saw my correction on the dimensions... 9x12x17 instead of 9x12x12.
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with distances to Seattle locations Was there some chit chat that we don't know about? I remember you quoting him that he said "McChord isn't that far from Tacoma. It should not take that long" Were there additional statements in reference to travel times, specifically involving Seattle?
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stratostar, It's nice to have you back too... I know you didn't go anywhere, but just hadn't posted in a long time. I absolutely LOVE hearing skydivers debate the ins and outs of the jump. They will do a simulated jump on the unsolved history show on Discovery tonight... it might provide some fodder for discussion (what assumptions they made, what was good, bad, etc).
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Ckret, Welcome back! He had two choices, an NB6 with no padding and no sleeve or a fully padded Pioneer sport chute with a sleeve. I had a feeling that's what Cossey was talking about when he said "Cooper's choice of harness"... there was never really any mention of what that pink parachute he cut up was. 8:15 to 8:20 Really???!!!! When you get some time, we should all go over that timeline more thoroughly. It's absolutely vital. We have to find the farthest northwest location that the bag could have landed and emptied into the Washougal Water Shed, keeping in mind the 77 flood. I can give you this point. You just need some skill with a map. Digital will be the easiest way to find it, or send a PM to sluggo (the map god). There are several proximate points, it just depends on what your priority is (North or West). If you'll recall, I traced the outer region of the Washougal watershed. I took the outermost points to create a perimeter, or boundary. The northern most boundary point is WR2 (WR1 would be in Skamania). WR2 = N 45 43 26.23 W 122 15 47.34 The elevation is roughly 2,630 ft. The NW corner of the boundary would WR6 = N 45 42 33.38 N 122 19 51.79 The elevation is roughly 1,885 ft The closest NW boundary point to the flight path would be WR9 = N 45 41 49.76 W 122 21 00.48 The elevation is roughly 1,639 next we have to drop a canvass bag of money from 10,000 feet and see how far it travels under conditions. We can probably figure that out without dropping it from a plane. We will need to get some experts in calculating fall rates and drift distance verses wind speeds. We know its weight and its volume (surface area), the rest should be academic. if they were alive after 11/71 they can be ruled out If you've gotten that far in the investigation, I'm eager to hear all about it. Again, welcome back Ckret.
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Yes, I knew it was a dig on me... I'm pretty much the only one that gripes about changing the timeline. It's just friendly jestering amongst friends. I was going to call Himmelsbach this week and get a better feel for why the FBI was so adamant about the timeline. I will still make this phone call, but with everything that happened this week, I decided not to make the call because I was sure his phone was ringing off the hook! Stay tuned. I will do my best to figure out more regarding the timeline.. but it will have to wait for some of the media frenzy to die down.
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http://a-list.msn.com/ Today's hot topic on MSN? Yep. If you visit the link beyond today, it will change. But if you happen to view the page before it goes away, then you'll see what I was referring to last week... they still insist on using the original sketch, even though it was revised not once but twice! I still say, if he got away with it or if he is never identified, then using the Bing Crosby sketch will be a big part of why. Personal opinion, but that's what I think. FYI, the unsolved history is airing tonight on Discovery. I looked this up two weeks ago (because I wanted to watch it) and it was scheduled back then, so it's just coincidence that they're running this particular episode tonight. Check your local listings for the time. This is the one where they did the FRS test and a simulated jump. They also, if I remember correctly, went over to USC's diving pool and tested how well a bag of money would float. Skyjack71 makes a cameo appearance.
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i kindof just skipped to the end here so i missed if you guys actually think that the parachute was DB cooper's. I think I put my own view as 80% not Cooper's, 20% Cooper's... but I just can't shake the location of the find. There's not really a DZ there. Like Ckret said, highly coincidental if it's not one of the parachutes. Therefore, I'm going to adjust my thinking up some... 60% not Cooper's, 40% Cooper's. Technically you can say that I do not think it's Coopers, but a big part of me thinks this is it. I can't speak for the others, but many seem to think it would be the dummy chute if it were Cooper's.
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that would explain why he wanted 20s. He didn't ask for twenties. That's myth. He only requested the ransom in cash and to be in a knapsack. The bills were already set aside for this type of situation (ransom demands), so they just used what they had.
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You're close on the value of the $20, which is one reason I think their useful life was longer than what they are now (2 yrs). The odds of discovery would go as follows: (Total number of spent Cooper bills divided by total number of 20s in US circulation) x total number of times every bill changed hands before destruction x probability of someone checking a bill against the ransom list = odds of discovery This is total fudging the numbers... I'm putting this just to illustrate the above equation. We know for fact that Cooper did not spend all of the money, but I will use 10k for the number of bills anyway. 10,000 divided by 1 billion 20s in circulation This equals 0.00001 The average bill may change hands say twice a week for two years (most of these were already two years old when given to Cooper) or 104 x 10,000 = 1,040,000. 0.00001 x 1,040,000 = 10.4 Times the probability that someone was checking 20s against the ransom list. This is the hard part to quantify. Let's put it this way, the odds were not that great unless he spent the money in the Northwest and he did it less than a year after the crime. The only ones who would have checked would have been bank tellers. Dispute that contention if you want, but think it through... banks were pretty much the only ones who had a ransom list. It's not like a corner grocer was whipping out his Cooper ransom list (that has 10,000 numbers on it) and checking every 20 against it.... Probability will work like this: 100 tellers check ALL 20s against the ransom list (I doubt it was this high), and the total number of places money can change hands would be in the billions. We'll just make it easy and use 1 billion. 100 divided by 1 billion = 0.0000001 Probability: 10.4 x 0.0000001 = 0.00000104 Or 1 in 961,538 That's not very good odds of discovering a spent Cooper bill in circulation. The Feds only check for counterfeit bills and did not record S/Ns as they destroy. Knowing that Cooper, at the very most, spent less than the full amount would reduce those odds. If Skyjack71's theory of money were close to what really happened (and that theory aspect is extremely strong) then we'd expect Cooper to leave behind a substantial amount of the ransom. The probability of discovery would get lower and lower as he spent less.
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Skyjack should answer the question of when. I thought I read somewhere that it happened in Colorado. Weber suddenly left Colorado shortly after the ransom money was discovered. Therefore, the hang gliding comments would have been between 77-80. Does that fit paragliding? They had squares by then, but does CO even have the terrain for adequate paragliding?
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paragliding? You might be correct. I wouldn't know... Due to some people not having the ability to view YouTube stuff, I transcribed the interview: "The type of parachute that DB Cooper used was a 28 foot parachute in a military type container, and this type of container and harness would be very difficult as far as finding the ripcord goes. In selecting this type of parachute, it would seem that he had some military background. He would encounter numerous problems. Number one as he exited the airplane he's likely to go unstable which would also cause him some problems in reaching, locating, and finding his ripcord aside from the fact that it was night. Since it was rainy and windy, if he got the parachute open, then the problems of his landing would come up. I'm just sure if he pulled the ripcord he made it." - Earl Cossey 1979 No mention of "oops... I sorta put an oversized canopy in the container and never made sure it worked okay"... this is why I'm asking those who would know to chime in with their expert opinion.
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pchapman, "Unless Cossey had poor rigging skills at the time, he would have expected the rigs to be functional." I thought the same thing. If Cossey packed a container that couldn't be opened reasonably, then what's that say about his rigging skills? The best Cossey interview I've heard was in 1979 for In Search Of. It was done just months before they found the money. You can find this interview by visiting the following YouTube video and scrolling to 5:37-6:45 of the clip. Cossey
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Cossey was quoted this week as saying "I might owe him" when referring to Cooper's possible demise. Other than that, 377 would you like to tackle the "estate" question? dumstuntzz, Is there any type of 28 round that would have worked with an NB6? Could the container have been altered, or the material of the round be different?
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Sluggo, He probably had some understanding of refueling, or at least that's what has been implied when he got agitated in SeaTac. Captain Scott definitely noticed the extra long time and told them not to use any tactics. Nice post. Happythoughts, There's levels between total novice and expert. Quade agrees with the FBI's take on Cooper's experience level, but I don't think the FBI thinks he was a complete novice. One or two jumps would have given him some level of knowledge. Albert18, Weather and time of day are two different things. I think you meant time of day... I would concur with your take, he jumps in mid day and he's busted. At night, how are they going to search for him? Plus, he was able to get a head start (if he lived) since they did not "know" that he jumped. I'm fairly sure Cooper banked on getting a head start and never considered that leaving the plane would cause a "pressure bump" or oscillation that would allow authorities to pinpoint his jump.
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Yes, McCoy, Christiansen, and Mayfield all are known to have jump experience. Cook's guy isn't even named and thus, the chatter about him hasn't been much, but he had experience as well. The "hearsay" I refer to would be: Him allegedly saying he hurt his leg once jumping out of a plane. Him allegedly describing how hang gliders steer. Him allegedly pointing to an area in Alabama and saying "that's where we used to jump" Skyjack having the post Duane garage sale and selling something weird that was in his desk; the purchaser allegedly said it was part of a parachute and that he collected those sorts of things. It's all hearsay (from our perspective, not Jo's) but if true would at least suggest he had some exposure at some point in his life.