SafecrackingPLF

JerryBaumchen, Correct me if I'm wrong, but you actually said you were able to get a stand up landing once with the 26 conical. Not that it matters much, I doubt Cooper had the conditions that alllowed you such a nice land (and remember he has a 22 pound bag strapped to his waist). But, you're right... this debate is elementary. It certainly has some relevance if we want to determine how much pain Cooper may have been in. The serious question to determine is the timeline. 8:15 seems a little late, but even at 8:15 there's small odds that he lands near a tributary, and by small, I actually mean he might be pushing 8:16... I don't know. Someone said a typical fligth path is 8 miles wide, with +/- 4 mile tolerance to either side. Why I think that would not hold in this case is because this amount of leeway would put the plane directly in PDX airspace... and not that flight control at PDX wouldn't move everyone else out of the way for a hijacked plane, but why fly there when there's no need? If the FBI & NWA were so certain that the timeline was no later than 8:12 (and this was after factoring in a +/- 1 min of tolerance) then why push it out to 8:15 if we can't even get Cooper to die at 8:15? (remember, he has to deploy his chute almost immediately, then land on flat landscape on a farm, and die upon impact and no one ever find him)... If the 8:15 mark is so weak, there's really no point in discussing flight path because we know where the plane is between 8:10 & 8:12. The thing about flight path though that certainly makes for a great debate... if the flight path really is 8 miles wide (and I may doubt this is true for V23), then there's REALLY no way Cooper has a planned escape route. I'm sorry, all these theories about what gadgets he might have with him to tell him where he's at... and memorizing the turns on V23... if the plane can be that far off course, he could land as far as 8 miles from where he wanted to... it would seem to me that if Cooper planned his escape that thoroughly, then he sure made A LOT of assumptions and left a lot to chance. Conclusion: Cooper had no definitive escape planned other than jump and possibly make his way home somehow.

The point isn't that we're 100% totally accurate... that's impossible since we do not know how far Cooper fell before deploying his chute... the point is that we error on the conservative side. Exactly, thinner air makes for less resistance... still, 8 min 20 sec, or up to 10 min... he still can barely land on the farm & the timeline of the jump is periously OVER or on the 8:15 mark. And for some reason, the FBI & NWA was convinced the jump occured at about 8:11... their map factored in +/- 1 minute... not +/- 4 min. There's a reason for this, communication tapes & Jan 6th re-creation of the jump from the aft stairs is my guess as to where this number came from. I say he landed near or in the original search zone and was able to get out of there by 6 am. Ckret, when were the first planes/choppers sent out on the search?? Cooper lands at about 8:20 pm... certainly by 9:20 he is on foot. If you believe he could have his briefcase with him, then he likely has road flares that would supply him with a light source to navigate the woods... he lights one because he's unaware that anyone will know where he jumped, and he assumes no one will fly overhead and see his bright light (and my guess is that he's correct in this assumption). If he heard something coming overhead, he could possibly shield or cover the flare... I'd be interested hearing ideas on how he might do this if he felt it was needed. By 6:00 am, he's had 9 full hours of time to leave the area. If he makes his way to any road, he might be able to average a rate of foot speed of 1 mph for 9 hours or a total distance of 9 miles. Obviously I do not think he'd go in a straight line, but he could travel far enough to get out of the search area by dawn.

Elevation is dependent upon where you think he landed. 800 ft is the most it would be (orginal FBI landing area), if you think he made it onto that farm and died there, then 280ft. Calculations have been made to give the most flexibility to Cooper & he still can't manage to die upon impact.

Therefore, if it was 1200 ft/min, it's even LESS likely that he can land in a tributary. My estimation included an assumption that the wind speed at 7,000 ft = wind speed at 10,000 ft. Ckret only gave us up to 7,000 ft. 23 mph @ 7k. 29 mph @ 3k-5k 23 mph @ 1k-2k 17 mph @ surface That is what Carr posted, please correct if I made an error. Instead of spending a full minute dropping 1k, he would only spend 50 sec. 23 mph = 0.00639 miles per second 10k to 5k = 250 seconds descending Miles traveled = 1.6 miles 29 mph = 0.00806 miles per second 5k to 3k = 150 sec Miles Traveled = 1.209 3k to 1k = 100 sec Miles Traveled = 0.639 1k to 0 (though target zone is at 280 ft) = 50 sec 17 mph = 0.00472 miles per second Miles Traveled = 0.236 miles @ 10,000 ft under canopy, total miles = 1.6 + 1.209 + 0.639 + 0.236 = 3.68 total miles possible There's some loss of accuracy due to converting the wind speed to mph from the kts originally mentioned. Still, the point wasn't to show a precise landing point, but rather to evaluate the feasibility of landing in an area. As it is, 3.68 miles at a 235 deg heading, still allows Cooper to reach the perimeter of the target zone, LC7. It's still not likely, it's flat and consists of a farm, and he not only has to break ankles, he has to die there when he lands. Interestingly, if you look at the FBI map of the suspected landing area that was put together in Jan 72 (posted on pg 47 of the thread), points A to B was the likely drift line of Cooper. Point B is roughly 3.77 miles from point A. The elevation of point B is 680 ft. Point A was derived not by using the eastern most flight path possible, but by the western most path possible and point B was derived not by the most western flight path possible but the eastern most possible. This means there's a full mile added to the drift distance. They figured there would be 2300 feet of forward throw. I believe this is what was posted by Speedy. Someone a lot smarter than I put together that FBI landing map, I believe it was someone who had the expertise that you all enjoy. If you really want me to go over the top with this, I can throw in the known wind direction at each elevation and create an approximate drift line... due to the amount of 225 deg winds, it might eliminate this possibility all together, but I wouldn't know without really looking. Edit: Actually, scratch that... the experts who put together the FBI landing area map calculated the drift line using the average wind vector and came away with an average line of 233.544 deg... so hardly enough angle to change anything.

Thanks Ckret. I could have figured as much... USAF most likely would do like 377 suggested, keep that stuff top secret. They wouldn't want it getting out, why risk a "breach" (like the story about the FBI agent). Sluggo... thanks for the research regarding St. Helens. The first time I went up there was in 86. It doesn't look anything like that 20 yrs later... it was desolate, and this was five years later... complete destruction. I knew that some ash was in Clark Co, but not much AT ALL. I doubt the 8 to 9 feet... maybe at the base of the mountain. Like your map showed, it followed the curve of the wind stream. The windstream is almost always SE coastal winds... and when these shift is when there's a storm of somekind, but the wind stream takes the wind north and then it will curve back down, just like the ash path shows. Since the mountain blew on the north face, most everything blew AWAY from Clark Co. Due to wind, even if the South face blew, it would not have been as bad as Yakima. Now, if the banks only have 200k, the obvious thought is Cooper works for SeaFirst or a similar bank.... BUT, he'd also know the bills have been pre-photographed.... What a detail! Ckret, thank you... I never knew that! They even had the act down as much as to have odd numbered stacks!!! Genius. I heard nowadays they put GPS trackers in the stacks... that must make your job a lot easier tracking them down... good thing for Cooper they didn't have anything like that!

My understanding is that they had to photograph the bills. To do this, they'd need to remove the straps. And load them into a machine. Once they had all 10,000 bills photographed, the money was on its way and some FBI clerk probably had to sift through the pictures and manually type up the list of serial numbers. It would be one of the biggest blunders in the history of criminal investigations if they had left the straps on the cash and then didn't think of this when the money found only had rubber bands. But, it's definitely worth asking just to make sure they took care of the obvious... Ckret, rubber bands or straps?

You are SERIOUSLY underestimating the amount of cash that can be stored in pockets. Cooper has two coats: A rain coat and a business jacket. The raincoat pockets can easily fit two stacks each (400 bills) which amounts to 8,000. He can then put that much in his business suit pocket (2 stacks = 4,000). His raincoat will likely have an inside pocket as well, possibly two, each can fit at least 2 stacks... and he can fit up to 3 stacks in each of his pant pockets depending on how deep they are... my estimation of 2 stacks in the other pockets are also conservative. A stack of cash might sound like a lot, but not really, especially if the rubberbands are tight. Adding all of these together and we're talking about $20,000+... somewhere between $20,000 and $28,000 depending on the size and quantity of pockets. I don't think he'd put much more than maybe the stack he offered Tina into a pocket before jumping... She'd see him doing this if he did. I personally think he had other items in his pockets (such as the demand note) He could stuff them on the ground or upon getaway. Go to the bank and request several stacks of $1 bills. The bank straps really compress the money, so when you get home, put them in rubberbands... it will expand it, but not that much. You will then see what I mean... you're way underestimating the amount of money. Cooper can walk away with close to $30,000 in his pockets, easy. I didn't even count putting stacks behind his back between his shirt and belted slacks (where people often stuff guns)... another 4 to 6 stacks could go there. If he stuffs his pockets, he's walking away with close to 30k +/- depending on how many & size of pockets.

Speedy, you're on the money. The only correction I will say is that under 8:15 is only guessed. It's about 8:14:30 at BTG-VOR... somewhere around that time, it's very possible to make it to the target area if he jumps after the plane turns, he would jump somewhere around I-205. The problem is, this cures the angle, but then requires the distance, and at 17 mph surface winds and where he's landing (a farm) you REALLY have to get out there to say he died upon landing even though he opened his chute. 1800 feet forward throw... would this apply to a money bag as well? If so, there's no way in hell the money lands in the target area (which would have to be dropped right at BTG-VOR and then thrown towards the target area... but the angle of the path still puts it West of the target area by at least a mile, can 30mph winds really push a falling object east that far (we're talking less than 90 sec fall time)? Like I said, you're on the money, no pun intended. The money, as it stands right now, is as conclusive as if someone HAD found a bill in circulation.... you can say Cooper probably spent it, but in reality, you only have proof that "someone" spent it. Same thing here... someone has to move the money. More likely than not, it was Cooper... but if we say Cooper died, then we're really saying someone found the body or at least the money and then moved it and never told a soul. You still have to account to why it was found and why it was found when it was found and why it was found where it was found. Someone finding the money really wouldn't explain this unless they found it in 1979 and deemed it worthless and threw it in the river. That's my take anyway. I'm glad you took the time to look... I'd love to have Kallend verify the trajectory/forward throw if Cooper loses the money in mid air. My estimations of how far he can drift are generous... they assume he travels the same speed as the wind and not a hair slower.

There are two forces in question: The force of gravity, pulling the stairs down. The force of drag, pushing the stairs back There's an equilibrium point somewhere in between. Cooper's weight shifted the balance of this equilibrium and brought the stairs to their fully extended position (they aren't going to go straight down in a straight 180 degree direction) Once his weight is gone, there will be "recoil" because the stairs are now severly over equilibrium. The recoil acts much the same way as a pendulum... the pendulum's natural position is to be 180 degrees or perpendicular to gravity... if you pull it 90 degress in either direction and then "remove" the force that is holding it there, it doesn't just go immediately to its 180 degree position... it has to balance by swinging 90 degrees the opposite direction, only upon it expending all it's energy (the force that had moved it to 90 degrees in the first place) through force of drag and force of friction will it finally settle into its natural state. Likewise, the stairs, having been held beyond their equilibrium point, have to compensate by "swinging" up... it just so happened that this was enough to swing up into the fuselage.

The goal isn't necessarily to determine his identity, at least not for me. I'm not sure this can ever be done... ever. But, I don't see a problem with talking out loud about what's known. In the case of the flight path and creeks, that's about as close to a factual analysis as it can get. As it looks now, Cooper lived. Which then leads to a question, or a few questions: How does the money wash up? Why does the money wash up? Why does the money wash up when it does? Personally, I think we might be able to at last paint a picture if we can talk some of this out... As Ckret said, the money is telling us a story. There's nothing wrong with exploring the ins and outs to figure out as many "stories" that could possibly fit the evidence. From there, people would have their own opinions, as they do now... the problem with what's going on now is that the evidence actually disproves a huge chunk of the theories that have held for 36 years. I call that an advancement in the case, but maybe I'm biased... afterall, I did process the facts as they're laid out, so I'd have an opinion based on how much time I spent on it and what I know as a consequence.

Speedy, The flight path goes from point D to point F (I skipped a point in between on this map because it didn't matter and I didn't want to clutter the image), it then goes to point BTG-VOR and then proceeds south of what this shows, to the RAWER intersection. WGS 84 format that will work with Google Earth. I don't necessarily want to put the file on here because I have personal places on the globe that I may not want to make public (such as where I live, etc). Points on FBI Map (thread pg 47) D N 45 56 55.70 W 122 36 14.71 F N 45 51 32.23 W 122 37 08.31 Other points outlined on my map: BTG VOR N 45 44 52.14 W 122 35 29.52 RAWER N 45 14 08.34 W 122 47 39.54 Pressure bump occured between Point D & maybe just after BTG-VOR. I personally think it was between Point D & Point F, but Ckret says it might be as late as 2015 that it happened. The next locations are approximate, for example, I can tell you what beach the money was found, but not the exact place on the beach. N 45 42 43.47 W 122 45 37.81 will give you the beach and approx location. Lake River meets with the Columbia at about: N 45 50 32.95 W 122 46 50.79 E Fork Lewis meets with the Lewis at about N 45 51 57.50 W 122 43 10.72 The Lewis meets with the Columbia at about N 45 51 13.17 W 122 46 47.66 The target zone as described in my post on Sunday, LC 6 is the NW corner N 45 43 43.47 W 122 32 58.74 LC7 N 45 43 10.33 W 122 33 05.51 LC9 (he pretty much has to land north of this based on winds and distance) N 45 42 35.68 W 122 32 21.23 The known winds were posted by Ckret last week. I have a chart that shows them. At different altitudes, they blow in different directions... the directions are either 225 deg or 235 deg. The speed varies between 23 mph and 29 mph, but Ckret posted this in kts and I did a conversion since mph is how most people think. The ground winds were 17 mph according to his post. I did position the map towards north, the writing is sideways only because I made a quarter turn to do the screen capture, and then turned it back when I drew everything in. Any other questions?

Ckret, Due to continued speculation about Cooper's survival, would it be too much to ask for some accurate flight path data? Either coordinates or more maps? As I said earlier, we might be able to open up some possibilities if we can show the flight path to the east of where I was projecting it.

I suppose there's plenty of things the grudge could be. If it were about the war, do you think Cooper would want to make that clear in some way? Wouldn't he want to leave a newspaper that says "Thousands Die in Vietnam" or something along those lines? Or some type of military emblem if his beef was with the military itself? Or at least tell Tina "war is really a bad thing".. or "the military ruins people's lives"... but instead, he says "I just have a grudge" I don't know, I'm just throwing that out there... because if he seriously has a grudge and he wants the other party to know, he'd let them know somehow. That's all I'm saying. Maybe he was just a greedy person and he lied about having a grudge. Who's to say? I want to make one thing a little more clear... it's not "me" who says it's not possible for money to wash down stream, but rather it's actually what we know that is saying that. I've gone ahead and made a rough, very rough overview of Clark County with various "zones". The zones are: Lewis River E. Fork Lewis Salmon Creek Vancouver Lake Lake River LaCamas Lake and Washougal River I've outlined them... Lake River is only labeled, it runs parallel to the Columbia and picks up the water from Salmon Creek and Vancouver lake. It adjoins the Columbia river at point "Y" on the map. Point "X" is where the money was found. The distance between the two is roughly 9.47 miles (a little longer if you count the curvature of the river) Lewis River & E Fork zones both feed the Columbia together (because they merge before they get to the Columbia)... and this is even further north than point Y. These are the only places where water meets up with the Columbia. Therefore, we are truly restricted to these "zones". Creeks & Streams are based on elevation and folds in the earth's crust... these do not change drastically in 30 years, they don't. They're relatively constant. When I said the waterline of the Columbia has changed a lot since 79, it HAS... I'm talking about the shape of the beaches and such... the location of the Columbia itself has not changed at all. The boundaries aren't exactly precise, but they will give you an idea of what we're looking at. Quite simply, if Cooper died upon impact or he lost the money on the way down, then the money absolutely must reach the LaCamas or Washougal zones. I left the flight path drawn in for you. I believe it was 377 that asked about Mt. St. Helens. I will tell you my understanding... most of the ash blew into eastern washington. Yakima looked as though it was nightime it was so thick. There was ash in Clark County, but the winds and the direction of the blast blew it north and east. It was the north face of St. Helens that blew (see pic). I'm not necessarily trying to justify Cooper's survival, it is really challenging to show him dying or losing the money... and by challenging I mean close to impossible unless we move the flight path. I understand that money that shows up proves something: It proves Cooper did not spend the money that was found. Which then leads to the question: Well, why would he not spend the money? Which then leads to an ad-hoc answer: well, because he surely died. What the evidence is suggesting to myself and to everyone else is that this giant leap of an answer has serious problems that cannot be resolved unless there's something significantly false (such as time of pressure bump or the plane was 5 miles east of its flight path). Okay? I get it... it's really convenient to say Cooper probably died. Afterall, he did not spend $5800 worth of money that was found and it's a nice answer as to why. What I'm pointing out is that this is the very definition of ad-hoc and the evidence clearly points the other way.

Nice take. Remember that the Vietnam war was still going on and it was a black eye for the USA. So many people had very strong opinions, much like our modern day Iraq, though I'd think it was EVEN worse in the Vietnam days. Entire platoons were getting wiped out and our young men were returning in bits and pieces. happythoughts, many people felt that Cooper was ex military, ex pilot... so perhaps you're correct. So possible grudges: 1. Airline company (which would mean he lied) 2. FAA/Airline industry 3. Insurance issuer of NWA 4. US Govt for any host of reasons including military actions/inadequate training, etc I'm sure there are others that we might be able to connect to the hijack. I mean, if he's mad that his wife left him, what's his statement?? "here, look what you made me do!"? Keep the thoughts comin

Sluggo_Monster, We know that Tina asked him if he had a grudge against the airline. He said "no". Then he added, "I just have a grudge." We can rule out the airline, unless he's making a bold faced lie (which is certainly possible if he wanted to avoid detection) The question is, was Cooper just making a comment to make a witty retort, or was he telling the truth about having a grudge? If he did have a grudge, who is the grudge against and how does hijacking a plane make it better or prove a point? I don't know, questions to ask thyself... Your idea of the insurance company *would* answer that question nicely, especially since you're thinking a hijacking hurts the airline and the insurance company for sure (airline due to negative publicity & potential costs if they didn't have insurance to cover hijacks). If it was against insurance, he'd have to know more about the details regarding the NWA policy. No mention from Ckret yet as to who the policy issuer was or the policy amount. I've heard this speculated, but nothing concrete. The other possibility could be the US government or law enforcement... but how does hijacking a plane make that statement? Just to show how weak they are??? Well, if that were true, you'd expect a living Cooper to rub their noses in it a little... some post crime gloating. I think its likely that it would mean a letter to the papers or authorities vis-a-vis The Zodiac. Another thing to consider Sluggo is the money... He either leaves a percentage of it behind purposely like you're suggesting, or he took it all home and then returned at some point to throw it away. The second one just doesn't sound right... unless he had a religious conversion... but if that were the case, wouldn't he send the cash to the FBI or to NW Orient anonymously? That would leave the possibilty of Cooper leaving it all or a portion of it behind while he tried to get away. The bag only weighs 22 pounds, so is it that he has to go into public places and is worried about someone noticing a "weird guy weiring a tattered suit and carrying a canvas duffle bag"... ? Many people have speculated that Cooper stole a car or had one waiting, or had an accomplice waiting to help... if this were true, then there's no reason to leave any percentage of the money behind, all of it, none of it, he'd take it all... he can make a clean getaway, afterall.

I guess some people don't want to admit the impossibilty that has been shown.

This is good information. 12x12x9 and it weighs 22 lbs. 1296 cubic inches and it occupies 5.6 gallons of space. Rubber inside the pack left behind show no signs of wear... again, what causes rubber to become brittle? The Seattle FBI office apparently does not meet the climate conditions required. Tina watched him perform the cuts/packing of the money, she watched him secure the bag to his person... what else did she see him do? How was he wearing his clothes? How long did it take to harness up? Did he loosen his collar or keep it buttoned?

One thing I noticed between pictures 2 & 3 (other than the obvious stairs) was the trim of the plane. Is it me, or does it appear the nose has flattened some?? I would think the craft taking these pictures would know how to hold steady and not be climbing rapidly as the pictures are snapped.... Thoughts?

Awesome. I guess the proof is in the AF chase pictures... look at how quickly that slammed up, maybe half a second?

LOL, were the flames simply for dramatic effect? Or was that Cooper's bomb finally going off?

Okay... I think then it's fairly safe to say, Cooper knew that the stairs could lower (or he at least assumed it)... BUT, it's apparent he had not spent a lot of time lowering the stairs on one. He didn't even know that this is performed from the aft. not to take us off topic, but one quick thing, you had mentioned that Cooper would not be able to see the river at night. I concur. But what he might see is "glow" of the lights, a huge break cutting down the middle of it, and then more lights. If he truly "knew" by looking where he was, then he might think the big break seperating the lights must be the Columbia. There's a slight angle in the flight path that would allow him to peer through a port window and see... or just look in that direction when he's on the stairs.

My understanding was that the 727 in 71 had aft stairs that were lowered only through gravity, and they were really only designed (on the commercial ones anyway) to be lowered while on the ground for passenger/supplies. So it was nothing like a hydraulic shaft. I think we need to recruit some of these experts to discuss some of the angles like you mentioned. Do you know how to get a hold of Kirlin & the DZ poster who knows a lot about drop velocities?... or should we find a suitable forum on here and just post a seperate question? Would it be possible that the military had a slightly modified 727 with different stairs? What would be interesting would be if those same 727s required the Captain to lower the stairs instead of lowering them from the aft cabin... remember, as much as we're talking about Cooper having all this pilot knowledge, he still was unaware that the pilot could not lower the aft stairs and Cooper himself had some trouble with it at first.... He knew a lot, but it would seem he may not have known all there was.

This brings us back to a military load master/pilot/or someone who would know about the 727's ability to drop supplies. Am I wrong about that? I'm pretty sure these were used in the military... but then again, I could be wrong. A Boeing engineer would know if the stairs could be lowered in flight, and they'd likely use technical jargon like interphone.

This is one reason why the oscillation *may* have occured simultaneously. I would hope we could find out more to see if this is the case or not. The Perris Valley DC-9 is more than likely equiped with something to prevent any aft stairs from slamming into the fuselage... that would be a law suit waiting to happen.

I know there has to be some leeway in the timeline, that's understandable. However, to go from 2011 to now 2018 is quite a big difference. It also requires us to put the plane basically on top of the Columbia or slightly past it given the winds. I don't know why the FBI was fixated on the search zone they came up with... the map that Ckret posted on page 47 was created in Jan 72, so they had spent two months coming up with it... quite a bit of work if their margin of error was 20 miles. I certainly hear what you're saying... but you're essentially taking a hard line Tosaw style "he has to land in the Columbia, he just has to" Well, in way, yes he does have to land there IF we assume he died upon impact, but then you will have a lot of ancillary problems in the theory that must be resolved. When I said Cooper would have had a snowball's chance at surviving in the Pacific, I was not kidding. I was an NCAA all-american swimmer and there's no way I'd want to be out at sea more than 2 miles in the daylight.. .and that would be somewhere with large volcanoes that I could see for miles... otherwise a swimmer is basically screwed. Now, on the Columbia river, I can tell you from experience, you can push a floating object to the shore from the middle of the river inside of 15 minutes... say 25 minutes for the non-swimmer. The money can float, I don't know how long it can float, but it can float. If he can see his location through the clouds and he cannot swim, why the hell would he jump near the Columbia? If he cannot swim, the money can help keep him afloat for some length of time... a deployed chute would certainly hinder his movement though... but all this would be drifting downstream. It's not that far from where the plane crossed the river to where the money was found.. it takes at least 7 years for this to drift downstream?? I think Tosaw just made up an easy explanation and went with it... like you he was so convinced that he paid divers to go down and check the bottom of the river. He also thought the money was dredged up, not washed up. Big issues there. A dead body right on the edge of the Columbia does not have much chance of lying there for 7 years without notice... there's buildings, walkways, beaches, restaurants, etc. I'm not sure how it was from 71-79 but I'm sure plenty of people visited the areas around the water's edge. Not only is there the timeline to contend with, but all this other stuff. We know where the plane was at 8:12 based on Radar from McCord, so the margin of error cannot be 6 minutes.... can it?? Nice discussion, certainly worth debating. JerryBaumchen, Thank you for pointing that out, there was a mistake, it was WED the 24th! Pumpkin's are still in season for Thanksgiving, yes?