wolfriverjoe

Well, not unlike the Budapest Memorandum, there's no real 'legal enforcement' for end user certificates. The main consequence seems to be that the exporter can refuse to export any more stuff to the violator. So Slovakia & Poland (both current NATO members) won't be able to buy shitty Russian planes and 'jack in the box' tanks any more. Or spare parts. It's a genuine problem for anyone who wants to operate them long-term. Some parts are available through Poland, but not engines. But, for now, Ukraine using former Soviet aircraft, that were made in Ukraine, to attack the Russians is something approaching poetic justice.

There isn't a whole lot about this war that is 'funny'. But there are a few things. Poland and Slovakia are sending Soviet era MiG-29s to Ukraine. Russia is not happy with that. They claim (correctly) that the original purchase agreement included guarantees that neither country would re-export them without permission. This is a very standard thing, often called an 'end user certificate'. This prevents countries that aren't supposed to get weapons from getting them. This is why the Germans had to agree to Leopard tanks going to Ukraine, even if they were coming from countries other than Germany (they came from Finland, Poland and a couple other places). Russia has said "This is a gross violation by Bratislava of its obligations to re-export military equipment manufactured by the Russian Federation". Except those planes didn't come from the "Russian Federation". They came from the Soviet Union. And they weren't manufactured in the Russian Federation. They were made in... Ukraine. Really. https://en.newizv.ru/news/2023-03-24/russia-slovakia-violated-the-rules-of-re-export-by-transferring-the-mig-29-to-kiev-402126

Ya know? There's a pretty simple rule. If Nazis (real, swastika waving Nazis) show up to support you... You're WRONG. Period. https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/2023/03/25/terf-wars-and-neo-nazis#mtr

At what? That he got caught?

Well, the former Florida state rep who sponsored what became known as the "Don't Say Gay" law has... Pled guilty to wire fraud, money laundering and a couple other things. For stealing Covid relief funds. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/former-florida-gop-legislator-pleads-guilty-covid-relief-fraud-charges-rcna76021

No. Of course not. It was those 'evil LGBTQ people' and those 'uppity minorities that think they're as good as US' Apparently those 'lawmakers' never heard of the 'law of unintended consequences'.

Last year, Utah passed a law making it much easier to ban books in schools. If it has something 'offensive' in it, it doesn't matter what the work is, or the overall context. And it allows for pretty much instantaneous removal. "Based on the new Utah law, something is indecent if it includes explicit sexual arousal, stimulation, masturbation, intercourse, sodomy or fondling," The Tribune's report stated. "According to state attorneys, material doesn’t have to be 'taken as a whole' in those situations or left on the shelf during a review. If there is a scene involving any of those acts, it should be immediately removed." So a parent has filed a complaint against a book that contains: “Incest, onanism, bestiality, prostitution, genital mutilation, fellatio, dildos, rape, and even infanticide,” the parent wrote in their request. You know... The Bible. https://www.rawstory.com/gop-lawmaker-very-sad-utah-parent-used-his-law-to-request-ridden-bible-be-removed-from-school/?xrs=RebelMouse_fb&fbclid=IwAR0uIGrvNiAGAetHXq1BtuXKxqTG5YUD3W3Cg_pagOzAOMuX-ZNrfl8XQDY

That's a good question. My guess would be 'not all that much'. #1 - The Chinese know full well that if they give substantial support to Russia, the 'West' will impose sanctions. They need the west to buy all their stuff. If that gets even slowed down much, the Chinese economy will suffer. #2 - Even if the Chinese sell the Russians a bunch of arms & ammunition (the ammo is currently what's desperately needed), getting it from China into Russia is the easy part. Getting it from the east to the west is harder. Getting it from Moscow to the Ukrainian border is harder. Getting it into Ukraine and to the front is much harder. The Ukrainians have gotten pretty good at destroying the storage areas. The partisans tell them where the Russians are staging stuff and the Ukrainians use that info, along with the HIMARS to destroy the stuff before it reaches the front lines. If the Ukrainians can start to suppress the Russian air defenses, then they can start to use air support to both help their attacks and to further destroy Russian supplies behind the lines. The MiG-29s that are coming will help that, but nobody really knows how much it will help. If the Ukrainians can push the Russians back some, then more of the Russian supply lines become vulnerable. The accurate long range artillery has shown to be vital for this. Fighting on their own territory, with partisan assets providing some really good intelligence on the Russians has also been important. I think that the war will be decided by mid-summer. Probably not 'over', but the outcome will become clear. I think Ukraine is going to prevail. I believe they are going to expel all the Russians from Ukrainian territory, reclaiming all the territory Russia has occupied since 2014. But that isn't certain. We shall see.

Depending on who you believe, the Russian army is running out of everything ('Russian army' includes Wagner). Reports are that artillery usage has dropped significantly. Like maybe by 80%. Attacks by Russian infantry on Ukrainian positions have also fallen off. There's a pretty good probability that the 'Russian Winter Offensive' is done. Or almost done. The Ukrainians have done a masterful job of bleeding the Russians white. They set up strong defenses, and the Russians threw themselves at those defenses. Human wave attacks, without armor support. Troops with virtually zero training, ancient weapons, little (or no) ammunition. Truly just 'cannon fodder'. In many cases, those 'attacking troops' were sent to die for the simple purpose of revealing where the Ukrainian defensive gun placements were. They died en masse. Again, depending on who you believe, the Russians lost upwards of 30,000 'soldiers' attempting to take over Bakhmut. 'Soldiers' is in quotes because I don't really consider a draftee who is ten days out of induction, no training at all, thrown into a battle to be a 'real' soldier. Just a poor victim, one of many in this war. And even if the Russians had taken Bakhmut, that was only ONE line of defense that the Ukrainians had in place. They could have fallen back a few kilometers, where there were even stronger defensive positions. With the western tanks beginning to arrive, along with a few fighter jets from Europe, the ability of the Ukrainians to conduct a 'Spring Offensive' is increasing every day. At the same time, the Russians are running out of everything. They've sent envoys around the world, trying to source ammunition, mainly artillery. The next couple months are going to be telling. If the Ukrainians can put together a solid offensive battle plan and execute it well, the Russians are going to be fucked. They're going to be pushed back and the Crimean Peninsula will be cut off. Look at the fall offensive that retook Kherson and most of the territory in the northern part of the country. When the Ukrainians had the upper hand, the Russians ran like rats. Or cockroaches. If the Ukrainians can break through somewhere, it won't be a whole lot different. Right now, the only question is 'where?' And 'when?'

He claims that he lives in Flori-duh. And it's entirely possible he does. Maybe not likely, but possible. However, it's pretty clear he gets his paycheck from St Petersburg.

He was as full of shit as he usually is.

Closed places usually get posted 'no trespassing' pretty quick. WalMarts that allow parking usually allow big trucks. Cracker Barrel usually does not. Some drivers are absolute pigs. Generally, taking a dump in the middle of the parking lot and leaving it (human, not dog poo) is a good way of getting everyone kicked out.

I've been pondering where to post a couple things, and this seems to be as good a place as any. Reports about the protests in NY seem to indicate they are quite small. I would guess there are a few reasons for this. 1 - All the dumbasses that claimed the Jan 6 insurrection attempt violence was because of 'Antifa & FBI informants' are worried that all those 'agent provocateurs' will cause another riot and they'll get arrested for it. MTG herself has publicly claimed this. 2 - There have been something like 1000 people indicted from the Jan 6 insurrection attempt. Something like half have pled guilty, 50 or so have been convicted. NOBODY has been completely acquitted. Everyone that has had their case progress far enough has pled or been found guilty of something. The Justice Dept is saying that another 1000 or so are going to be charged in the near future. Crowdsourcing the identification of the criminals has proven to be quite successful. I'm curious how many hardcore Trumpers are left. 3 - Despite all of his 'faithful' putting their lives & freedom on the line for him, Trump has (predictably) done NOTHING for anyone involved. Other than beg money from them. Also, Trump & DeSantis are going at each other, again predictably. If Trump is indicted in New York and is still in Florida, he can fight extradition. Florida law allows the governor to intervene in a contested extradition, but DeSantis has said he won't interfere. So Trump accused him of sexually assaulting a teenaged boy. The fun part about that is that if DeSantis interferes in the extradition, he will lose a LOT of support for his Presidential bid. If he doesn't help Trump, he'll lose the Trumpers. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. Couldn't happen to a nicer piece of shit. Last, a lot of Rs are being very loud about the Manhattan DA and his pursuit of this case. There are congresscritters who want to 'investigate' to see if any federal funds were used in the case (it's a state/county office, no federal funds). There's been pushback from a few, asking why congress is trying to interfere in a state investigation. Last, there have been a few MAGA morons going online and posting various threats of violence towards any cops wanting to arrest Trump. Of creating a 'wall' of 'armed patriots' around Mar-A-Lago to keep the cops out. Of shooting down police helicopters if they try to go in that way. That would be hilarious. I've seen it asked "how many of those idiots have 'back the blue' stickers on their cars. All in all, this is fucking ridiculous.

Oh my. That's awesome. The 6th grader in me will be giggling about this for a LOOOONG time. Best quote is the last one:

That's funny. I thought it was 'bless their hearts'.

Also 'when' and 'where'? No attribution, no source, no nothing. No surprise, either.

That's a very good point. However, lots of folks have been predicting an indictment coming out soon. I wouldn't be terribly surprised to learn that Trump has a couple people inside the prosecutors office who have warned him that the indictment is coming out. You know, the same ones that made the various charges 'go away' in the past.

That's totally hilarious, considering Stromectol (trade name for Ivermectin) is made by Merck. You know, "Big Pharma". Apparently the 'alternative medicine' crowd thinks its a treatment for Lyme disease. It's not, but they believe just about anything. So, the answer to your question would be: Gullibility. And stupidity.

Yup. I've seen some of the Alaska competition videos, and they do stuff of that nature. Again, depends a LOT on the winds. Seeing them lock the brakes, power up and lift the tail off the ground before brake release, then be off the ground in VERY short distance is impressive.

Well, somehow the FSB building in Rostov on Don caught on fire. This is just east of Ukraine, on the coast of the Sea of Azov. According to the Russians, there was an electrical short that ignited stored fuel (really). https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64975202 I guess it's nice that they've cracked down on the unauthorized smoking that has cause so many fires & explosions recently.

I guess my first question would be: What were the winds on that helipad? The strength of the wind will make a HUGE difference. I am impressed with that landing, but some of the Alaska STOL competitors are also very impressive. Depending on the wind conditions, some of them are stopped in a few feet. And back up in a similarly short distance.

Also, don't forget about all the political ads, particularly by the right wing 'influence groups' that scream "THE LIBERALS ARE ALLOWING CRIMINALS TO DESTROY YOUR CITIES AND THE LIBERAL JUDGES LET THEM GO FREE!!!!!!!!!!!!" in the ads.

As is the stupidity of the MAGA morons.

That's funny, the ONLY people I hear using 'woke' these days are the alt-right idiots, using it as a pejorative. And no, I don't take them at all seriously.

Just out of curiosity, what's his average 'time from reinstatement to re-ban'? It seems like the last few times, he's lasted maybe a day or two before being gone again. I know that under the 'old rules', permabans weren't super common and were clearly earned. How many more chances does someone get? If you can't answer in this particular case, can you give a general answer?