Coreece

Thank you for admitting that. Again, he said "lockdowns aren't needed if a country managed to control the outbreak early." I just thought it was funny because he's been using NZ's pandemic response (which included a level 4 lockdown) as an example of how to control the outbreak early. Again, that's not the problem. The problem is with meaningless, and subsequently irritating comparisons to the U.S: Why New Zealand’s Coronavirus Elimination Strategy Is Unlikely to Work in Most Other Places

Ok that makes sense, but you were also talking about how "lockdowns aren't needed if a country managed to control the outbreak early." I agree, but you've been applauding New Zealand's performance and used it as a model for "better leadership" and how the U.S had a "few more deaths" and "could have done better" If you follow their example, then you have to "go hard and go early" - lockdown level 4. That's in direct contrast with South Korea's approach that you've also applauded as a model for the U.S to follow, which would involve no lockdown, but have advanced manual and digital government surveillance and tracing via mobile apps, credit card info, cctv, etc. The U.S could learn from some of this, but none of it's really anything new or different besides the digital tracing. The biggest problem for the most part was in our execution, not in the plan.

Dude, just no. Olof has been clear and reasonable in their case and I don't know why you're looking so damned hard for something to oppose here. Because he was comparing NZ travel restrictions and quarantine guidelines to the U.S and now he wants to split hairs and pretend he doesn't know what I'm talking about because I said he said "shutdown" rather than "travel restrictions." Then he want's to say I'm confused and inconsistent regardless of the fact that a level 4 shutdown/lockdown was an integral part of NZ's response from the begining - perfectly reasonable to think that travel restrictions are part of a shutdown.

If you would just provide a link to the post where (you claim) he wrote this it would save a lot of bandwidth. He didn't say level 4 lockdown because apparently he didn't know that they were locked down, which was the point I was trying to make. Context

Go ahead, find my post which says this. Have you not compared the U.S to New Zealand? Have you not used New Zealand as an example of having a successful response to the pandemic? Did they not control the outbreak early? Did they not have a level 4 lockdown? I mean, the level 4 lockdown might be news to you, but that's what they did.

In no way did I say they relied on it alone. I know, that's the problem. The study I was referencing said that due to presymptomatic tranmissions, manual contact tracing alone is not feasible. Your counter to that was to use New Zealand and South Korea as successful examples of using manual contact tracing. But if you're going to counter a scientific study, shouldn't you at least provide a counter example that actually addresses what the study is talking about? Again, I did not say that. What I said is lockdowns aren't needed if a country managed to control the outbreak early. But then you used New Zealand as an example of how to control the outbreak early with a Level 4 Lockdown, lol. Because, it's like talking to a bot. The shitty ones never remember what you were previously talking about up-thread so they seldom respond in context like a normal person. It does get a bit frustrating, but with you it's just entertaining to watch an actual human being fail a turing test.

Go ahead and find where I was actually saying that. Oh, FFS why are you splitting hairs about this? You've been comparing the U.S to Taiwan, SK, Aus and New Zealand which was on a level 4 lockdown, the highest level of lockdown. If now you're saying that the U.S shouldn't have done what New Zealand was doing, then wtf was your point in making the comparison in the first place, along with that whole thing about denying your own citizens from abroad? Several countries managed to do manual contact tracing. New Zealand, South Korea You're not even listening to wtf we're talking about. Neither New Zealand nor South Korea relied on manual contact tracing alone. Personally I think New Zealand is small enough where it actually could've worked, but they decided to include a level 4 lockdown as well. You're also ignoring the part about how South Korea for the most part relied strictly on their digital surveillance and contact tracing apps in addition to manual tracing without the need to shutdown. Here's some other objective info that might help keep your bias in check: "Given the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 and the high proportion of transmissions from presymptomatic individuals, controlling the epidemic by manual contact tracing is infeasible." https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6491/eabb6936 Why New Zealand’s Coronavirus Elimination Strategy Is Unlikely to Work in Most Other Places Coronavirus: South Korea’s success in controlling disease is due to its acceptance of surveillance Coronavirus: why testing and contact tracing isn’t a simple solution How The Painstaking Work Of Contact Tracing Can Slow The Spread Of An Outbreak

I started with comparing to South Korea, a highly industrialised, urbanised, and democratic country of 51 million people. For the last 2 weeks you've been saying we should've shutdown completely like New Zealand, now you're saying we should've been like South Korea that didn't have to shut down at all because of their contact tracing - but this ignores the challenges of contract tracing in much larger countries with heavier tourism and multiple unknown transmission chains making it more likely for the spread to outpace the ability to contact trace effectively. Evidence suggests that covid spreads too quickly for manual tracing alone, as demonstrated in the U.S and throughout Europe, but the one thing South Korea did differently due to legislation in response to the MERS outbreak was to build a digital surveillance infrastructure with specialized contract tracing apps, mobile tracking data, credit card info and CCTV systems. The U.S could implement a system like that, but you'll have to convince at least 164 million people to download a government surveillance app on their phones and get everyone to trust them with your privacy.

Ya I know, New Zealand New Zealand! Because the dynamics of some Island in the South Pacific with 5 million people is like the the contiguous U.S. I mean that's one of the reasons you'd want to move to a bloody remote Island in the first place.

So when you close your borders, you also HAVE to shut down? If you don't, and then an out break still happens, then people like you would moan that we didn't shut down soon enough and wouda coulda shouda known about possible asymptomatic carriers out there and citizens from abroad that wouldn't follow quarantine orders!

Link to what I said then? I was talking about New Zealand's travel restrictions. Travel restrictions are NOT shutdowns. It's all part of the shut down. The only part you haven't explained is how the U.S woulda should coulda kept everyone at work, especially with travel restrictions.

I'm not Phil. Really dude, you were the one that's been going off on how we should've been shutdown like communist New Zealand and now you're talking about not having been shut down. And you're over looking the fact that many of these unemployment claims are more like temporary layoffs than they are job losses. You know, like the TV show: not getting hassled, not getting hustled Keepin' your head above water! Making a wave when you can! temporary layoffs - good times! Easy credit rip-offs - good times! Scratchin' and survivin' - good times! Hangin' in a chow line (Jivin') - good times! Ain't we lucky we got 'em? good times!

No, your cognitive bias is failing to connect the dots. trumps failures in dealing with C-19 exaggerated the effects C-19 should have had on the economy You were talking about the 36 million unemployment claims. If you support the shutdown than those non essential workers would file for unemployment regardless. So now we're back to not shutting down? which one is it?

Pretty much everyone did 250 years ago. It's just funny to me that's he's tying to make a point about "open carry idiots" by comparing himself to people that thought it sensible to settle personal disputes by shooting each other in public.

Ending the shutdown before we have robust testing and contact tracing in place WILL result in unnecessary additional deaths Phil is bitching about the the high unemployment while fanatically supporting the one thing that is causing the high unemployment. You guys seem to be having trouble connecting the dots. . .

Ya, during a pandemic when you're on the internet practically everyday bitching about people wanting to end the shutdown and get back to work. . .

And apparently felt that gun duels were an acceptable way of settling disputes. . .

Personally, your eagerness to criticize his skepticism is more peculiar to me, especially when Wuhan's testing capacity is 100k per day in extreme circumstances and have so far tested about 2 million in almost 2 months - and now suddenly everything's supposed to be scaled by 30 times in 10 days? From Your Article: "Wuhan tested about 1.79 million people between 1 April and 13 May" "In one residential block, more than 2,000 people were tested on Tuesday, but medics reportedly ran out of labels and reagents, which complicated efforts" From Phil's article: "Wuhan’s authorities would have to conduct at least 730,000 tests a day to finish within 10 days, even after excluding people who had already been recently tested." "That is several times the current testing capacity in Wuhan, which the paper said could conduct 100,000 tests a day under extreme circumstances."

From your article: "It is unclear how Wuhan will procure enough testing kits and process all the samples, and whether such a broad, systematic approach is the best use of resources. . ."

Guys. Take a step back a second. This isn't something that's been prepared and all anyone here knows is exactly what was in that single article, that at a drop of a hat the "District health commissions and neighborhood committees" were told that they have 10 days to complete 11 million tests. The clock started yesterday. I simply have my doubts that a 11 million person testing program can be instantly ramped up and completed in 10 days. They don't have instant access to 3.5 million doctors and all the materials needed to perform this work. I agree. That was just sarcasm inspired by Bill's post upthread.

Nonsense! China has over 3.5 million doctors, if each of them tested just 1/3 of a person, they'd have it done by lunch time! You know, maths. Social Distancing

Man. I saw him fire off a throw from deep in the outfield all the way to home plate. Even as a teenager, I was impressed. And it Denny McClain, who ended up getting into trouble. It was an exciting season I was living in northwestern Ohio at the time, só Detroit was my team. Wendy P. Some of the biggest Tiger fans are from that area, especially those watching players come up through Detroit's farm club in Toledo - The Mud Hens.

Denny McClean if I remember correctly. On that note, Al Kaline just died last month.

Poor cousin Oliver lol, I thought that was John Denver.

I don't care who you are, if you're the president of the U.S and your middle name is Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, Hussein, Pot, etc., I'm sorry, but it's going to attract some attention.