speedy

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Everything posted by speedy

  1. For a start the globe doesn't respond neatly to simple increment in greenhouse gases - don't misunderstand, greenhouse gases have increased and have been doing so since the industrial revolution but the world has been rather taciturn where response is concerned. Since the 1976 PDO positive phase shift, for example, the globally averaged mean temperature has been rising (trend 0.17 °C/decade, that is, if the trend were to continue for a hundred years the world would warm 1.7 °C). The preceding three-decade period, however, has been re-evaluated to 0.02 °C/decade (0.2 °C over 100 years). The trend throughout the available series (since 1880) is a much more conservative 0.04 °C/decade (0.4 °C over 100 years). The net result, according to the GHCN-ERSST Data Set at least, has been 0.5 °C rise over the entire period of record while the GHCN Land Surface Data Set suggests almost 0.9 °C since 1880. Whether such a warming is to be considered unusual is difficult to determine since we have so little data over longer periods. The Central England Temperature record dates from 1659 and appears to be reasonable proxy for northern hemisphere temperature and it contains warmings of greater amplitude and more aggressive trend in both the early 18th and early 19th Centuries than that which we believe occurred during the 20th despite minimal disturbance in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels at those times. So, we are moderately sure that the world has been warming although our precision for measuring same is not high. We are not sure about baseline temperatures and we have no way of telling what should be considered the 'correct' temperature. In addition to this we have some discrepancy between where we expect to find warming in accord with the enhanced greenhouse warming hypothesis and what we can actually observe. Then there is still a wide disparity between atmosphere-derived temperatures and near-surface ones so we are not yet convinced about being able to remove the effect of irrigation schemes, for example, and their regional temperature and humidity perturbations and so derive the effect of emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Nor are we assured of having adequately dealt with the urbanisation of temperature recording points so it is possible, even likely that some of the estimated temperature increment of recent decades is due to urban heat island - this remains contentious, to say the least. On top of all this we have to contend with the misuse of process models attempting to divine the future and producing somewhat extraordinary 'projections' that are paraded as though they constitute data. Worse, these "projections" rely on "positive feedbacks" (multiplier fudges) whose very existence is uncertain and the net sign of the combined feedback mechanisms is unknown. These fudges are necessary because the climate forcing of a small rise in a trace gas like carbon dioxide is known to be quite small on its own. Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  2. To be honest, I can't say that this generalization really holds true for students at our dropzone. Watch a student with 10 jumps land a canopy and you can't tell if they were SL of AFF trained. As for letting the SL student concentrate just on canopy control, I have noticed how wound up they get concentrating on their exit. Oh, I can fix it for you... "AFF students either fixate on the FF part of the dive (the exciting bit!) and brain lock about canopy control (the exciting bit!)" Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  3. Which method did you learn? Severall others have pointed out how AFF students don't pay as close attention to the canopy portion of the FJC as they do the FF portion. Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  4. I have never quite understood the "SL for canopy control" and "AFF for FF" thing. People talk as if AFF students never have to fly a canopy. So what is exactly the advantage of SL over AFF for canopy control? Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  5. Well that would be very nice of you. Although I am a bit surprised that I can't find it on the net. Maybe it was never said by HAL? "Hello, Dave. Shall we continue the game? " Is the bit I would like.
  6. Yeah, I've found the second one , but "shall we continue the game" is not there. Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  7. I am looking for a digital (mp3, wav) snippet of HAL in 2001 Space odyssey saying "Hello, Dave. Shall we continue the game? " and "I'm sorry, Dave. I can't do that" Can anyone help? Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  8. Well Chuck, start laughing. Here at the world games in Duisburg, Germany, they charged people to watch the skydiving events. The swooping events were a sell out. Not only did wuffos buy tickets but skydivers as well. The publicity surrounding the event was huge though. TV reports covering local competitors and the likes. http://www.duisburg.de/worldgames_archiv/en/default.htm Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  9. So effectively you are saying that all domesticated cows have the runs? How awful for the poor cow. Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  10. I think that the flash is nicely put together. It would have mean convinced if I was that way inclined. Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  11. Riggers pack reserves for cash! Sparky Looking at what they get for a reserve pack job I can't believe that they only do it for the cash Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  12. You mean clicky? Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  13. So I guess billvon is a duck is also OK Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  14. Naaa.. just pump all the water out of the gulf into the pacific ocean. Then N.O. will ok and hollywood would be at risk. Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  15. Which is something I will do now for the 4th time. I still end up in arguments about what the report recommends with people. For instance, side by side? Cutaway or not? Thanks for reminding
  16. O.K. I guess you have got me there! I am definately not going to start an arguement with you about when it's justified or not. I will always lose! So, you are right
  17. Will there be weight limits based on the IPC rules? see here. Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  18. I agree, it's just like banning smoking, people will do it anyway. nuff said. Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  19. Do anyone really disagree with this statement? I certainly don't. And if a less extreme measure may not accomplish the same objective.... ask again, but nicely.
  20. Yes, but if the FJC student had fun landing her HP canopy you could still say, "The passenger student is an adult; she made the choice to participate and obviously had fun." Stop foisting nanny state morals on her. I think with your last paragraph you have cancelled your first paragraph. I must go with Billvon here, when the passenger is not in a situation to judge the dangers, we as experienced people should err on the side of caution. In this photo I suspect that was not done. Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  21. Looking at Sunshines total of 20583 twenty thousand? Don't you do anything else sunshine? Or is someone out there with more? Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  22. Actually Mr. popsjumper, he is making a point about posters that peeves me a lot on here. The point that people make snap judgmental decisions about another posters character based on very little information about the poster. Any YOU are also doing another pet peeve of mine, which is failing to read the posts you are replying to. There is nothing ironic in what mattjw916 posted to which you replied. Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  23. Can't see the pic, but do you mean it's attached backwards, or, it's flying backwards? Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  24. What if you're doing CRW? I wouldn't want either in that case. An AAD like cypres would not bother me one bit when doing CRW. A RSL on the other hand would be a definate "no way". Dave Fallschirmsport Marl
  25. If you don't deploy a landable canopy, how are you going to"land the canopy safely"? I have seen it tried and it doesn't work for shit. Sparky If you don't put your rig on before you jump, how are you going to deploy your canopy? I have heard that a certain video man tried this. It didn't work for shit. Dave Fallschirmsport Marl