FLYJACK

From the Anderson interview.. I didn't catch it before.. 8:05 is the last comms with Cooper. "The oscillations continued" "but were smoother"... that means there were oscillations right after the contact with Cooper to slow the plane down and before. "Bill called back"... 8:05 last contact with Cooper after oscillations were smoother. "more time passed" "suddenly came that bump"... more time is after 8:05. 5-7 minutes? 8:05 time 12-13 minutes from the Columbia. So there were oscillations that were noticed for a while, why make the sudden 8:12 report.. these oscillations were different. Bigger. "The stairs weren’t opening like Cooper needed. Cooper called me on the interphone while Tina was riding up front with us. Cooper had let Tina come to the front. He yelled, "slow it down!." I stated back to Cooper, "OK." And we did; we slowed the plane. The oscillations continued, as I remember, but were smoother and we hadn’t heard anything from Cooper. Bill called back to him and he finally answered. He said everything was “OK”. More time passed. And then suddenly came that “bump”. After the final "bump" which we felt with our ears, we all discussed it for awhile, waiting for another bump. It never repeated, so we assumed that was his exit." 7:50-53 quick climb 7000 to 10,000 and hold. 170-180 knots. Crew on O2] 7:54 pm MSP: As soon as reasonably sure the man has left the quicker you can land. 305: Roger. Miss Mucklow said he apparently has the knapsack around him and thinks he will attempt a jump. MSP: Roger. After leaving this freq go to 131.8 we have direct phone patch There (to Company and FBI) 305: Roger. 8:01 pm MSP: What is altitude? 305: Now at 15 thousand. (typo) Indicator 160. Fuel flow 4000. 15 degree flap. Gear down. CQN will stay at 10,000 until he has left. MSP: Roger. 8:05 pm 305: Have attempted on two occasions to make contact with individual he did not reply. Then used PA system and he said, “Everything is Ok”. MSP: Roger. ANDERSON SAID, more time passed from 8:05 = 7 minutes later.. THIS HAS TO BE THE JUMP TIME (mark your maps) 8:12 pm 305: Getting some oscillations in the cabin. Must be doing something with the air stairs. MSP: Roger. Crew discusses and waits to call it in.. 8:20 pm 305: Called. (no response from Cooper) MSP: Go to 131.8 (phone patch to company on that freq.) SEADD: He (Nyrop?) is already on that frequency. MSP: Roger. We are on the phone and will be talking to him shortly. SEADD: Roger

I agree with Darren's money guy,, if the 9700 bills were spent in US one would pop up in circulation eventually,,, people focus on the initial passing of the bills but they would still circulate for years,,, and there were lots of star notes in there, star notes a very collectable.. Cooper either lost the money (if he survived) or the money was taken out of the country and spent. Also, it may be still hidden somewhere,,, BTW,, If Cooper survived but lost the money on land,, would he stick around and look for it?

Drilled down with the smoothed flightpath.. Top yellow is 20:11 at top and 20:13 bottom. Left red line is smoothed FP. Right yellow is max chute drift.. Blue arc is walking distance to Heisson Store by 11:30.. outside that Cooper could not have walked to the store by 11:30. red squiggly = RR tracks Note the large dense forest right in the middle.. Anybody know what that is?? I went back to 1985 and that area was smaller. In 1985 90% of that area was clear open land..

The rate of climb gauge registers pressure changes... oscillations are pressure bumps. Anderson referred to many bumps.. minor and the largest one.. The pressure bump for Cooper leaving was a major oscillation. A series of fluctuations ending in a single pressure event... that suggests a unique short timeframe event. "but it wasn’t a one time event but a series of fluctuations which attracted our attention. I saw it first then alerted Scott and Bill, ending in a single pressure event we felt in our ears" so-called.. "pressure bump" the term used to distinguish the large pressure change/oscillation. "the "rate of descent" gauge that detected the so-called "pressure bump." Largest bump by far.. must of been preceded by smaller bumps aka oscillations. "We all agreed that the gauges were detecting a disruption of airflow, most likely caused by Cooper testing out the aft stairs. But we all felt one physically distinguishable "bump" with our ears which came abruptly after we had been monitoring the gauges. We all felt it almost in unison, surprised, "there he goes!" It was the largest bump by far, an abrupt pressure change." One physically distinguishable bump (vs gauges) "We all agreed that the gauges were detecting a disruption of airflow, most likely caused by Cooper testing out the aft stairs. But we all felt one physically distinguishable "bump" with our ears which came abruptly after we had been monitoring the gauges. We all felt it almost in unison, surprised, "there he goes!" It was the largest bump by far, an abrupt pressure change." Oscillations occurred prior to 8:05, the 8:12 report was not the first notice of oscillations. "The oscillations continued, as I remember, but were smoother and we hadn’t heard anything from Cooper. Bill called back to him and he finally answered. He said everything was “OK”." My take from all the pieces... The "oscillations" on the gauge were minor pressure bumps.. the problem is the crew didn't distinguish at the time between minor and major... they tried to separate the two later. Minor oscillations were occurring for some time noted both before and after the 8:05 Cooper call. The 8:12 Oscillation report was at minimum 7 minutes after oscillations were first noticed. likely much longer. That shifts the entire timeline.. back to the drawing board.. before 8:05 oscillations 8:05 last contact with Cooper smoother oscillations 8:09 bob on FDR, trim adjust 8:10-8:12 Crew reports getting oscillations.. (more minor ones or new major ones = Cooper jump)

Everyone has lost the plot,,, The flightpath map has serious limitations,, Rejecting the "FBI" flightpath" based on the tight curves and erratic direction changes demonstrates a lack of understanding. The plots have 1 mile location error and the line is far too large to represent a 727.. We get a VERY crude path estimation on that map. I went through each plot and marked the error rate to create a wider potential path that was still within the plotting error. Then I drew a smoothed path which is probably far more accurate than that black line.. It completely eliminates the erratic changes and sharp turns.. It may not be the exact flightpath but it is within the plotting error. With this smoothed path everyone should be able to find Cooper's LZ and those crew meals.. The methodology,, I marked each radar plot exactly then added the 1 mile error. I drew two boundary lines one on each each side of those timing marks, the drawn black path line was ignored. It created a two mile wide corridor. Then I drew a smooth path within that corridor, within the radar/marking error. It proves that the path can be substantially smoothed out and still be valid. It may not be the exact path flown by NORJAK.. but it is much closer than the crudely drawn black line and it better reflects a jet's path. Best to open in a new window and expand it to see better. adjusted to see the smoothed path..

Now, you have shifted your argument to later than 8:11.... from had to be after 8:13. But your are applying the same premise. That is why the 8:09 FDR event is important. Crew statement times are just not accurate enough. He left the plane after 8:09... yes,, about 8:11. The FBI analysis had the oscillations at 8:10.. last I checked 8:11 is after 8:10. I am sticking with about 8:11, no matter what the bump oscillations were. My guess is there were oscillations on instruments and larger ones that were noted as bumps until a big one.. Cooper leaving. To argue a time separation proves Cooper jumped after 8:13 you need to have a long period of time between the two events. If they were noted starting at 8:09.. you can have oscillations and the pressure bump before 8:13.. nothing shows it was later. We have 4 minutes between 8:09 and 8:13. That said, it is possible, I just don't accept your argument for it using the 8:12 timestamp, the times just aren't that accurate. To get to the Columbia R Cooper would have to have stood out on the stairs for 8-9 minutes.

Your assumption in incorrect, the 8:12 time stamp is not accurate enough to support your argument. I believe the pressure bump was the largest "oscillation"....

I know they use bob, I have always used blob... It is telling us that an event occurred at that time. Probably Cooper on the down stairs.. Assuming the plane was being flown on auto is irrelevant,, Rat said manual but others have pointed out that it isn't necessarily one or the other, there is an in between where the plane is flown manual with auto systems. I am not a pilot but they aren't necessarily opposites.. However, the plane was flown that 8:09 trim event occurred. I disagree 100%, It is the most important timing event we have. If it was Cooper at the bottom of the stairs extending them at 8:09, The noted oscillations start and the crew reports them.. We are getting oscillations,, at 8:09/8:10 real time not 8:12 timestamp. Your 8:12 time argument is over. We have Cooper now on the stairs at 8:09. How long would he have stood there before jumping? 60 seconds? 120 seconds? 180 seconds? 240 seconds? that only gets you to 8:13. That is lots of time.. For Cooper to jump next to the Columbia he would have had to stand there for 8-9 minutes and jumped over the lights of Vancouver/Portland. That seems very unlikely. The conflation between "oscillations" and "pressure bump" doesn't move the 8:11ish jump time... The arg that the bump had to be after 8:13 is not valid. Is it possible Cooper jumped later,, sure, anything is possible but I don't see any evidence to support it vs the 8:11 time. The 8:12 crew comms timestamp doesn't do it.

Chaucer, You keep making the same error. You and others are not taking the data into proper context. The comms timing is not as accurate as you seem to think. You are applying a degree of precision that isn't inherent in the information. The marks on the map are not as accurate as you think. Each mark can be a mile off to the side in any direction. The exact time associated with each mark can be off at 3 mi/minute. The "flight path" is not precise in the short lengths. It is a plot not really a path. The Pearson plot was an estimate by somebody trying to make sense of it. Those marks do not mean the plane was actually there at that time. The turns can appear sharper than they really were due to the plotting error. Take the "flight path" and add a mile on either side, the plane could have been anywhere in there. The line in the short term is far more erratic than the the planes actual path. People don't understand what it really is. It is not the actual path, it is an estimate based on plotting. I have been working on this,, a graphical smoothing of the plots using a 1 mile error.. it would take out the erratic nature and sharp turn and better represent the actual path.

The pressure bump was a big oscillation.

I bet that Airline food is still out there somewhere... Maybe Eric can find it.. and do a TV show on the search.

The FDR recorded something at 8:09, they didn't know at the time that the stairs didn't drop much when opened. The stairs were opened much earlier so what was it? possible trim adjustment to maintain level? why? Maybe, Cooper first goes all the way down the stairs causing the rear drag. IMO, figuring this thing out is the KEY to establishing all the times.

This newspaper piece reported that Cooper took some of the crew food ration's with him.. Cooper had requested meals for the crew. Newspaper claims are sometimes not accurate but it makes sense and that isn't the typical error newspapers have. IF TRUE, where did he put the FOOD... the briefcase maybe.

yes, There is no missing mark There is one in the middle of the river if you look close,, Look to the left there are three +'s hanging out there they line up with the ones for the path Those were apparently an error in E/W but N/S lines up. That makes the previous section a bit long but the next one is short and it self corrects. When the section is calculated the speed is consistent. It doesn't mean the plane speeds up it is the marking error. You can tell because the next one is short and by the next one the timing is corrected.

Funny, Ulis said you can't figure out the ground speed from the map.. I got 182.37 k Robert99 est 182.86 k.... and yours is close.. although a different section of the path. You can't clear it up.. the information isn't precise enough to pin it down.. that 8:12 report could have been 8:10.. Some reports had 8:10.. We just can't know for sure. Then, even if you got a time pinned down, you can't pin down the planes location.. We have a minute plus/minus for the event and a minute plus/minus for the N/S flightpath.. 0.5 - 1 mile E/W plus/minus then the chute wind drift potential up to 4-5 miles.. that ends up being a lot of real estate. At the time they didn't really know what happened and filled it in afterwards... so what they said, their perspective and language changed. If the crews reported oscillations ended in a bang, there isn't a time separation between events. It is like saying closing a car door is two separate event times, the swinging it and then the bang closed. Anderson inferred that there were many bumps,, what were those,, another expression for oscillations or what? Unless we get some new info it is just speculation, That is why I believed the 8:09 FDR blob is the key to establish events.. something significant occurred at 8:09 and that time is the most accurate. Any idea what that was? Here is my best guess.. I can't prove it, just by processing all the info. 8:09 Cooper goes to the end of the stairs, fully extended or close, that is the blob.. trim adjust maybe 8:10 Crew reports oscillations (8:12 time stamp) 8:10 - 8:11 my data suggests the plane slowed, probably due to stairs down and drag. 8:11 Cooper jumps causing bang or pressure bump.. 8:11 - 8:12 with stairs back up plane regaining speed.

I did a very detailed analysis right along the flight path from 19:54 through 20:26, a 32 minute stretch... measuring each segment precisely and converting to miles, NM and speed.. Each minute mark was measured and longer 5 minute increments were measured to get a smooth data set as a check. I found that the missing 20:04 time was made up by the adjacent marks, I compared the 19:59 to 20:05 and the radar sweep must have just missed that time. Since each mark can be off, the marks before the missing 20:04 made up for the missing mark by being longer. The missing 20:04 is not relevant. Obviously each of the manual marks is not precise but over the course of the path any deviations get corrected. I followed the path and since it has a plotting error the result isn't exact, but it is very close. The average was 3.49 Miles per Minute or 3.04 NM miles per minute.. I found that the GROUND SPEED from 19:54 to 20:26 averaged 210 MPH or 182.3 NM. Does that sound about right.. for ground speed.. Rough calc/est, 165 KIAS X EST 1.20% = 198 less wind EST 15k = about 183 kn If I did that right the path seems to match NORJAK.. The reason the path is erratic is because it is a minute plot with a 0.5 mile error. It is not really a representative path, it is a smoothed plot. The minute marks were made manually and are not precise. There are only a few major timing mark outliers. 165 is the min control KIAS for the F106, that eliminates the F106 from the flightpath as it would have had to fly at the min along the entire path from 19:54 and minute marks would be far more randomly spaced and variable if the F106 was doing circles or s turns. F106 = busted.

"after 8:12" do you mean 8:12:01 plus... or 8:13:00 plus.. if the report was between 8:10-8:12, you have 360 seconds from 8:10-8:13, the reported oscillation and bump could have occurred within that time. We don't have seconds marked.. are the times rounded up or down or concatenated??? IMO, that 8:09 FDR mark is a significance event... marking something. We have all run into this,, with the imprecise data/comms we can't determine the exact location, IMO, the highest probability is 8:11 plus or minus a minute.

That time stamp in not precise enough... Reviewing Anderson's interview there are some other problems.. He mentions minor oscillations on the gauge, then no more major ones.. (major and minor oscillations) He mentions a final bump, a distinguishable bump, largest bump... (many bumps) At the time the crew wasn't sure what happened all their perceptions of the event were formulated later. My speculation is that there were minor oscillations and major oscillations described, those major oscillations were "bumps" until the final big "bump". In real time the crew wasn't distinguishing between bumps and minor gauge oscillations.. they did later. The 8:09 FDR blob is a significant event.. it seems too early for the "pressure bump" but it might be and the times are off a bit.. But, what if it was Cooper reaching the bottom of the stairs, pushing them down, trim adjustment. Oscillations reported between 8:09-8:11 and jumps at 8:11.. (within a minute time variable)

Now I remember that interview, vaguely, those statements are a fairly recent recall and some out of context. "When the final bump happened and the oscillations stopped that sealed it. But even then we weren’t sure and we waited before calling anybody. " The interview confirms the other evidence that the crew reported the "bump" late... there was a delay. That undermines the assertion that the bump was after 8:13. Then the bump oscillation sequence becomes moot. The minor oscillations on the gauge started well before. It was 8:11. The recording was analyzed. It may be semantics. Anderson is referring to his gauge oscillations. "Not really and it wasn’t exactly as you describe. These were minor oscillations. We detected on the gauges only. " It is clear there were very "minor oscillations" not felt but seen on the rate of climb gauge before the bump. This was confirmed in the test. "very little" The bump was seen on the pressure gauge. I didn't realize there were two different gauges.. They didn't fully realize it was Cooper.. "We just presumed pretty quickly that it was Cooper fiddling with the aft stairs but we weren’t one hundred percent sure because we were already flying dirty, with throttles up and fighting icing and weather." There were more bumps or one? or were those oscillations? no further MAJOR airflow disruptions. What about minor ones? "We all agreed that the gauges were detecting a disruption of airflow, most likely caused by Cooper testing out the aft stairs. But we all felt one physically distinguishable "bump" with our ears which came abruptly after we had been monitoring the gauges. We all felt it almost in unison, surprised, "there he goes!" It was the largest bump by far, an abrupt pressure change. We all thought he had exited the aircraft at that point, because the gauges never detected any further major airflow disruptions after that ‘thud’. The re-test duplicated the oscillations and the pressure bump exactly. " That interview is important but it still isn't clear when these guys are are referring to oscillations, fluctuations, disruptions or whatever.. felt or seen on gauges.. Anderson is clearly referring specifically to the minor oscillations on his rate of climb gauge which had been occurring for some time. He states those oscillations ended after the bump. I believe that was not immediate but when the stairs stopped undulating, that may be brief. He also said no more major oscillations,, what does that mean? they were described as minor.. did they continue on his gauge.. were they describing the bump as a major oscillation? The ear plug coming out is from the pressure bump.. an increase in pressure = door closing.. then "we're are getting some oscillations"... bigger ones? minor ones were occurring for a bit..

They are the same thing.. the pressure gauge change was the pressure bump.. the oscillations continued after the bump.. There is no other evidence... what evidence? Do you think the stairs rebound up stop and don't oscillate?

Door was opened much earlier, so not that. It is right here... pressure bump = gauge change Gauge before oscillations Therefore pressure bump before oscillations.

Pressure gauge.. at 8:11,, some reports are 8:13 but those are from inaccurate transmission timestamps, they narrowed it down to 8:11

Sure it is that was when the instruments registered it. There was confusion because they were simultaneous, the pressure bump was the first oscillation.

How do you know the pressure bump didn't occur between 8:10 and 8:12?

That isn't true the doc I posted referenced the pressure bump felt then oscillations.. "My ear plug came out (pressure bump first) and I uh, we're getting some oscillations.. (oscillations after)" I don't agree with your assumptions... We have reports of oscillations and a pressure bump, nowhere is there anything suggesting the pressure bump occurred after the oscillations.