nerdgirl

Who do you think the next war will be against? And why? (Since all of our crystal balls have such precise fidelity.

Thank you for the notice. He served his country. He is recognized as a hero to many, many Americans. For that he should be honored, and he will be long remembered in history. ---- ---- ---- Goodness knows I love a good debate ... but respectfully hope that we might create another thread to continue a lively debate. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I absolutely agree with the criticality of the entrepreneurial spirit. I’m a little struck by the figures. Is it really true that small businesses are responsible for 85% overall jobs, or do they create 85% of the new jobs or something else? Are small business really responsible for 90% of the overall economy, or 90% of the growth in the economy? What percent of the GDP? What’s the definition of a small business, i.e., 10, 100, or 500 people? ---- If anyone's interested in (what I thought was) a fantastic read on different styles of capitalism (e.g., US vs Europe vs India vs Russia) & the importance of fostering innovaton, I highly recommend Bob Litan, et al.'s new book Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, and the Economics of Growth and Prosperity, which is available to download free in total from Yale Press wiki. Litan currently spends most of his time at AEI. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

And waiting in my inbox – another NAS study: Benchmarking the Competitiveness of the United States in Mechanical Engineering Basic Research Abstract: “Mechanical engineering is critical to the design, manufacture, and operation of small and large mechanical systems throughout the U.S. economy. This report highlights the main findings of a benchmarking exercise to rate the standing of U.S. mechanical engineering basic research relative to other regions or countries, key factors that influence U.S. performance in mechanical engineering research, and near- and longer-term projections of research leadership. U.S. leadership in mechanical engineering basic research overall will continue to be strong. Contributions of U.S. mechanical engineers to journal articles will increase, but so will the contributions from other growing economies such as China and India. At the same time, the supply of U.S. mechanical engineers is in jeopardy, because of declines in the number of U.S. citizens obtaining advanced degrees and uncertain prospects for continuing to attract foreign students. (emphasis mine) U.S. funding of mechanical engineering basic research and infrastructure will remain level, with strong leadership in emerging areas.” p. 55: “Mechanical engineers (with S&E degrees) are projected to have an average rate of employment growth through 2014 [9-17 percent]. Although total employment in manufacturing industries – in which employment of mechanical engineers is concentrated – is expected to decline.” Furthermore, if the US wants a next generation Joint Strike Fighter (F-35) or DD(X) destroyer or Stryker vehicle or JCAD or Reliable Replacement Warhead Program (RRW) – even if I agree w/the JASONS assessment that the RRW is not needed – mechanical engineers are needed … including American citizens who can get clearances. [/unpaid DoD advertisement] The US does make a lot of money selling military equipment to other states. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

There are two (possibly more) issues at play: (1) The cited CIS study on illegal immigration, which recommends that illegal immigrants not be granted amnesty based on its conclusion that legal, low-skilled workers are larger financial burden on the US than illegal ones. The CIS study goes through a couple different scenarios and determines that it costs $6,022 (low estimate) more for legal low-skilled, minimally educated workers to the US than illegal immigrants, i.e., the "nationally border challenged.” (2) Legal immigrants and the science and technology workforce. While globalization has benefits for the free market globally, there is a domestic national security component as well. This was eluded to in the President’s American Competitiveness Initiative (ACI), which emphasized the importance of entrepreneurialship and innovation. How valid is the rhetoric that there aren’t available young scientists and engineers? (Maybe not available at the price Bill Gates, et al. want to pay.) I disagree with Gates; more H1-B visas is not the answer to “How to Keep America Competitive”. Before globalization, the market would have adjusted (hypothetically) to raise the prevailing wage. One result of globalization is the wages can remain low if there is an available workforce to fill them. American kids aren’t stupid … okay, the subset who might be likely to go into a science or engineering field aren’t completely stupid. They see and hear about “off-shoring,” labs closing, how much work you have to do compared to a business degree, etc. A few folks recognized the connection between lack of available decent-paying jobs and decline in one subset of engineers when the Southern California aerospace industry seemed on the verge of collapse, e.g., #’s of jobs “decline[d] from 370,000 in 1988 to slightly more than 160,000 in 1996. Despite some modest gains since 1996, aerospace employment remains below 170,000, less than one-half the level of a decade ago,” (from Trends in the Southern California Economic Region). In 1987, aerospace engineering-related jobs accounted for 10% of the US manufacturing jobs (see Chapter 2 Life After Cutbacks: Tracking California's Aerospace Workers). More recently, the National Academy of Sciences report Rising Above the Gathering Storm recognized the jobs connection. The declining American science and technology workforce is a *major* issue for many of the federal agencies, including the DoD. The Under Secretary for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (AT&L) charged the Defense Science Board (DSB) with looking back to the Cold War and the “technologies” (i.e., capabilities in DoD-speak) that gave the US strategic dominance and technological advantage over adversaries (i.e., precision, speed, stealth and tactical ISR) and identifying equivalent technological capabilities for the 21st century: 21st Century Strategic Technology Vectors In addition to identifying 4 critical “capabilities,” the DSB found that there is a lack of career science and technology development – a “crisis” – for DoD activities. This is exacerbated by the decline in math and science education, which was seen as creating a national security problem. A major theme of the DSB study was that revitalizing human capital is essential for the DoD to realize the technology needed to dominate over adversaries of the 21st century. Both Ken Kreig then-(USD(AT&L)) and John Young (the DDR&E) repeatedly have spoken about this repeatedly, including acknowledging the lack of reasonably well-paying jobs as an issue. From personal experience, which I hope does not reflect the behavior of most US companies, I had to deal with the CEO of a small company who wanted to hire successive foreign PhDs on H1-B visas for 6 months at ~30% the prevailing wage, fire each after the company had gotten all of their expertise, and repeat with someone new. The CEO also wanted me to sign all of the paperwork; he wouldn’t sign the INS forms. Nevermind, the questionable ethics of his strategy, because you can’t argue normatives. Hiring someone on an H1-B visa at less than the prevailing wage is illegal, (some of you might argue with that law, but it was the law). He proposed all sorts of creative schemes to get around the requirements; I learned more about the CFR than I ever wanted. It does happen. Reference to the earlier altruism discussion, while I had many less than self-less motivators, such as not wanting to break the law, I ended up being ‘punished’ for not being a ‘team player.’ Not only were there no repercussions for the CEO for doing the wrong thing, but there were negative ramifications for doing the right thing for me. The 4 guys (all 10-25 years older than me) who remained silent took the easy path. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

A read of the CIS study’s Executive Summary presents some different conclusions than are part of the usual rhetoric. “With nearly two-thirds of illegal aliens lacking a high school degree, the primary reason they create a fiscal deficit is their low education levels and resulting low incomes and tax payments, not their legal status or heavy use of most social services.” Connecting back to the thread on Democratic Presidential Candidate John Edward’s proposal for ‘universal’ college education, there’s a potential correlation that it’s because he wants a more highly educated workforce that will pay higher taxes (in terms of absolute dollars). The CIS study also notes that: “Costs increase dramatically because unskilled immigrants with legal status -- what most illegal aliens would become -- can access government programs, but still tend to make very modest tax payments.” So from a comprehensive perspective, poor legal, unskilled and un/underemployed American citizens cost (i.e., those not paying taxes or very small amounts of taxes in an absolute sense) the federal government the most. “Reducing the costs illegals impose would probably be the most difficult of the three options because illegal households already impose only about 46 percent as much in costs on the federal government as other households.” & “If illegal aliens were given amnesty and began to pay taxes and use services like households headed by legal immigrants with the same education levels, the estimated annual net fiscal deficit would increase from $2,700 per household to nearly $7,700, for a total net cost of $29 billion.” (NB: the CIS study specifically identifies children born to illegal immigrants: “Many of the costs associated with illegals are due to their American-born children, who are awarded U.S. citizenship at birth. Thus, greater efforts at barring illegals from federal programs will not reduce costs because their citizen children can continue to access them.”) The CIS study asserts that they are not alone in their conclusions: “Our overall conclusion that education level is the primary determinant of tax payments made and services used is very similar to the conclusion of the 1997 National Research Council report, "The New Americans." The results of our study also closely match the findings of a 1998 Urban Institute study, which examined tax payments by illegal aliens in New York State. In order to test our results we ran separate estimates for federal taxes and found that, when adjusted for inflation, our estimated federal taxes are almost identical to those of the Urban Institute. The results of this study are also buttressed by an analysis of illegal alien tax returns done by the Inspector General's Office of the Department of Treasury in 2004, which found that about half of illegals had no federal income tax liability, very similar to our finding of 45 percent. ------ From just reading the executive summary (which can be *highly dangerous*), one of the conclusions that I take away is that the US needs to insure that there are reasonably well-paying jobs available to its legal citizens. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The Battle of Athens comes to mind. There's also been instances where the KKK were fought off by the black community - one of the original reasons for gun control laws was to prevent them from getting guns. Thanks - those are both compelling examples. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That’s one way to express it. Albeit that a large percentage of foreign oil is in the Middle East, it's not the only place. You could also say that a keystone of US foreign policy is the advancement of democracy; [one can debate the effectiveness of the execution and planning behind the current implementation plan for achieving that goal, but it’s part of the strategy]. So how are oil & “the American Way of Life" connected, less w/r/t late 20th Century American consumerism and more w/r/t ideals of the American Way of Life? In addition to declaring the world flat from globalization, Friedman has proposed his “First Law of Petropolitics” hypothesis (“theory” to social scientists) that there is “a literal correlation that could be measured and graphed—between the price of oil and the pace, scope, and sustainability of political freedoms and [market-based] economic reforms,” i.e., lower oil $ =’s more freedom around the world (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3426). “The First Law of Petropolitics posits the following: The price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions in oil-rich petrolist states. According to the First Law of Petropolitics, the higher the average global crude oil price rises, the more free speech, free press, free and fair elections, an independent judiciary, the rule of law, and independent political parties are eroded. And these negative trends are reinforced by the fact that the higher the price goes, the less petrolist leaders are sensitive to what the world thinks or says about them. Conversely, according to the First Law of Petropolitics, the lower the price of oil, the more petrolist countries are forced to move toward a political system and a society that is more transparent, more sensitive to opposition voices, and more focused on building the legal and educational structures that will maximize their people’s ability, both men’s and women’s, to compete, start new companies, and attract investments from abroad. The lower the price of crude oil falls, the more petrolist leaders are sensitive to what outside forces think of them.” Now democracy does not = freedom … nor does correlation = causality. But doesn’t it make you go “hmmm?” (Okay, there’s probably some out there who are going “yawn.”)

Thanks for the links. While echoing concerns about the potential for a downturn in the economy, the references focus on the impact of the housing market and credit over-extension (i.e., subprime mortgages) rather than oil. David Rosenberg’s article (in WSJ) says nothing about oil. He does reference two other economists: “The better GDP numbers [as forecast by Citigroup economists] reflect an improvement in trade. But notwithstanding the export gains apparent in recent corporate earnings reports, most of the contraction in the trade deficit reflects slower import growth resulting from weaker domestic demand.” & “Robert Kessler, head of the eponymously named Kessler Investment Advisors in Denver, which specializes in managing Treasury portfolios for institutions and very high net worth individuals, sees that process as the inevitable result of U.S. consumers' binge on credit of all stripes -- not just for housing.” Wessel (WSJ on NPR) gives a mixed outlook and does consider high oil prices in the milieu: “Housing is worse than we anticipated ... oil prices are higher and going higher" and tightening credit conditions will make it harder for consumers and businesses to borrow….But many forecasters believe the resilient U.S. economy will avoid a recession. "The more optimistic people say that exports will bail us out of this," Wessel notes. "The dollar is weak and that makes our exports more attractive to foreigners. And foreign economies — China, Europe — are pretty strong, so that gives us a ready market." Optimists also say that as long as the job market holds up, "people will have money to spend and they'll keep spending," Wessel adds. But he says that exports and the job market aren't strong enough to offset the downsides of a housing slump, high oil prices and a credit crunch.” And he goes onto talk about housing market slump.” Even with all the combined factors, “Wessel says his guess is that the economy will go into a short and shallow recession, and that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates enough to prevent a sharp downturn.” Business Week’s Peter Coy is even more specific: “More than anything, what's behind the likely cut is the continued decline of the housing market, which threatens to drag down the entire economy.” W/r/t recession: “First, not all economists are as worried as Rosenberg is about recession. Wachovia economists wrote Oct. 26 that, although they expect a rate cut in October and another in December, it's not a crisis situation: "Strong gains in consumer spending and a significant rise in exports more than offset" a big drop in residential construction, they wrote.” W/r/t inflation: “That concern undoubtedly intensified this week when inflationary pressures strengthened from two sources. Crude oil for December delivery rose nearly $5 a barrel during the week to a record of $91.18 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The threat of U.S. conflict with Iran, which is a major oil producer and a significant military power, was largely responsible for lifting oil far above its natural level based on current supply and demand. High oil prices will probably lift gasoline at the pump back to well above $3 per gallon.” That’s the most interesting piece to me, because I’m interested moreover in the foreign policy ‘puzzle.’ As the gathered economics experts cited in the 2005 study mentioned in the WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB111270255444198252.html) asserted $90/barrel oil was going to push us to recession. We’re there. What we saw in 1973 is not happening. There are lots of reasons. Some argue we’ve already passed peak oil. But the US maintains the importance of energy security as linked to Middle East as part of the National Security Strategy and foreign policy. Is it time to re-examine that precept? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

QuoteActually, several economists are beginning to rtalk about a looming recession.Quote Could you point to the specific economists? And to what cause(s) are they basing their assessments, e.g., $120/barrell oil, collapse of subprime mortgage market, or something else? There's been speculation that the Federal Reserve Board may not decrease interest rates or only decrease by 1/2% due to concerns over inflation. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Do you have in mind any specific historical situations, particularly post Civil War, in which the exercise of the 2nd Amendment by non-uniformed civilians was used to enable execution of the other original nine or some of the more contentious later ones, e.g., voting rights? None are popping into my mind … but that’s far from implying they don’t exist … hence the question. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

How about it Jakee? You seem to think your so smart. Let's here about how nicotine is so harmful. Clearly I'm not "Jakee" but I'll offer three concise ways (a couple of which have been mentioned or alluded to by other posters) by which nicotine is more harmful than THC: (1) Toxicity. The LD50 (lethal dose) is at least two orders of magnitude lower for nicotine than THC, i.e., need a lot less nicotine to kill. (2) Greater impact on US healthcare costs due to use of nicotine-containing products, e.g., lung cancer, emphysema. (3) Greater absolute number of deaths per year due to smoking or using nicotine-containing products. Those aren't necessarily the criteria by which the decision to make one legal and the other illegal for recreational use was made. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks for the link. There are some very powerful videos available through the site. "Insurgent Headquarters Discovered Destroyed" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1Qf6EBUKHU)vividly illustrates the well-spoken professionalism of the US soldier, the difficulty of countering insurgency (e.g, difficulty finding such bomb-making facilities), the importance of HUMINT (& fostering military-civil relations), the non-trivial challenge of EOD, and the state of infrastructure (aka as a colleague of mine in the sandbox says - "It's a hole"). http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=MNFIRAQ "Multi-National Force - Iraq established this YouTube channel to give viewers around the world a "boots on the ground" perspective of Operation Iraqi Freedom from those who are fighting it. Video clips document action as it appeared to personnel on the ground and in the air as it was shot. We will only edit video clips for time, security reasons, and/or overly disturbing or offensive images. What you will see on this channel in the coming months: - Combat action - Interesting, eye-catching footage - Interaction between Coalition troops and the Iraqi populace. - Teamwork between Coalition and Iraqi troops in the fight against terror. What we will NOT post on this channel: - Profanity - Sexual content - Overly graphic, disturbing or offensive material - Footage that mocks Coalition Forces, Iraqi Security Forces or the citizens of Iraq. This YouTube channel is brought to you by www.mnf-iraq.com, the official Web site of Operation Iraqi Freedom." VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Great link - thanks! Kilian's paper that Mankiw links to looks very interesting (to me). So what does it mean for US foreign policy if Thomas Friedman is right (& the world is flat) ... or another way of saying it ... geopolitically, why does the Middle East matter? That's why I referenced the National Security Strategy & the Under Secretary's words, because according to the current US National Security Strategy, energy security is very important. The calculus w/r/t the rising energy demand of China & India has had implications on defense and foreign policy. Energy security is necessary but not sufficient alone w/r/t foreign policy. If the perceived impact on US economy is removed (i.e., what all the experts and models predicted), how should that impact US foreign policy? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks for the suggestions. What will Heinburg, with whom I'm not familiar, tell me about geopolitics & the best choices for US foreign policy? If "we are all peakists" should that not imply that the US economy should be becoming more sensitive to the price of oil and should not the expert economists (such as those I mentioned in the WSJ article I cited) be right? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

One used to hear that if oil hit $90/barrel, the US (&/or oil-importing nations) would descend into recession, e.g., from the Wall Street Journal in 2005 (after oil rose to >$50/barrell): http://online.wsj.com/article/SB111270255444198252.html. We’re at $90 and probably heading for $100/barrel without strong indicators of recession. (The sub-prime mortgage market collapse seems to be impacting the economy more than $90/barrel oil.) If for whatever the reason, one begins to question the ‘common assumption’ that some $$$/barrel price of oil will push the US into a recession, what are the implications for US foreign policy? Energy security and access to global energy sources, including concern w/r/t China’s energy demands, are part of the US National Security Strategy (p.19+, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.pdf). See also remarks by Under Secretary of State Alan Larson as part of State’s comments on the U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, (http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/itps/1202/ijpe/pj7-4larson.htm): “We need to secure reliable supplies of energy at reasonable prices in order to foster economic growth and prosperity, and to ensure that oil cannot be used as a weapon. We must deal with some hard facts about the international oil markets. Two-thirds of proven world oil reserves are in the Middle East. Europe and Japan, like the United States, rely on imports to meet a growing portion of oil needs. Aftershocks from global oil supply disruptions will ripple through the global economy. Finally, problem states control significant amounts of oil.” From Former Special Assistant for Strategic Futures, Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), Pentagon, Tom Barnett's book The Pentagon's New Map emphasized the importance of parts of the Middle East, energy globalizatization, and the importance of bringing tint the world community those Middle Eastern oil-producing countries that are part of the "non-integrating" gap. Excerpt at: (http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=3964): "Six OPEC members located in the Persian Gulf — Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — control two-thirds of the proven, "conventional" oil reserves and over 90% of the excess productive capacity in the system." VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Is it only a political or an economical question? Or are the historical and ethical issues so far subsumed that they are not to be considered? Given: history & ethics are much harder to correlate with data and hard numbers. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Where did you find $2.69 in GA? I filled up last night for $2.89, which is the cheapest around where I am; most stations have been ~$2.99 since August. (And noticed Friday that it was $2.65 in downstate Illinois.) VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

While not solely about LT Murphy's Medal Of Honor ceremony, this weekend's Wall Street Journal published a piece on former US Navy SEAL Marcus Luttrell, the 'lone survivor' of the firefight with Taliban that killed Lt Murphy and the other two SEALs. http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110010788 While one can find lots to comment and apply to foreign policy, human nature, and the nature of conflict, the author keeps the article focused on Luttrell. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Historically (per the thread title), when Social Security was created it was explicitly not to be subject to a means test. After some 70 years is it time to reconsider that? President Bush's plan included a proposal for “progressive indexing” -- cutting benefits of the more affluent. How about reconsidering the FICA wage caps (rather than raising the FICA tax rate)? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

My sincerest condolences to Eric's partner, family, and friends. He impressed me when he stood up when others would stand back and say nothing. His contributions and presence here will be missed immensely. BSBD /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That's beyond my areas of expertise. State government interdiction in Texas w/r/t tort reform seems to be having a positive impact w/r/t availability of physicians, particularly Ob-Gyns: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/05/america/05doctors.php VR/Marg Well, you and I are on the same page then. Much can be done. Government take over would not be among the choices for me anyway If the free market place can (or will) proverbially step up to the plate to deal with the issues in a manner that is acceptable to the majority of population that would be preferable. I see the current US discussion largely as a response (not a 'backlash') to the problems, rising costs, and expectations that consumers are experiencing with the current private healthcare system. If the current system was working, would this dialogue be taking place? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That's beyond my areas of expertise. State government interdiction in Texas w/r/t tort reform seems to be having a positive impact w/r/t availability of physicians, particularly Ob-Gyns: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/05/america/05doctors.php VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Both social security and healthcare expenditures will increasingly impact the US economy. From my perspective, the trends w/r/t the US healthcare system are deleterious and of more concern than Social Security. The impact of healthcare expenditures (~16% of GDP FY06) is larger on the overall US national economy than Social Security (~4.1% GDP FY06, http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/press/2005/analysis_midsession2005071405.pdf). The rate of increase of cost of healthcare (private costs and benefits/entitlements) is larger than Social Security, inflation, GDP, population. ---- Nota benes: A couple comparative because the budget is a zero-sum game: -- Defense-related spending ~3.9% of GDP in FY05 (not including Supplementals for OEF/OIF, See Chart 1 at http://www.heritage.org/research/features/issues/issuearea/Defense.cfm and Chart 4: “modernization” covers a lot of budget items, including Basic Research, Applied Research, and Advanced Technology Development (BA1-BA3). -- Foreign Aid, which includes some military aid, accounts for ~0.2% of GDP, see Figure 8, p.19 of http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/31987.pdf ---- Heathcare costs: The rising costs of health care aren’t necessarily coming from the type of illnesses that are getting the most attention today and I suspect that you will agree with me that the government (aka ‘the taxpayer’) can’t pay for it. Someone else can argue the normative of who "should" pay for it in a free-market. "In eight of the top fifteen conditions [by cost not by incidence], a rise in the cost per treated case, not rising numbers of cases treated, accounted for most of the growth in spending. For instance, the treated prevalence of heart disease remained constant between 1987 and 2000. Thus, a rise in the cost per treated heart disease case accounted for nearly 70 percent of the rise in medical care spending btween 1987 and 2000." (http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/hlthaff.w4.437/DC1) The 6 mostly costly conditions are heart disease, pulmonary issues [asthma, smoking,etc], mental health conditions, cancer, hypertension, and trauma; see data table: http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/vol0/issue2004/images/data/hlthaff.w4.437/DC1/Thorpe_Aug_Ex2.gif In 1950, the US spent ~5% of GDP on health care. If you had a heart attack in 1950, it was usually fatal. Most of us value living longer and staying healthy. How are we going to pay for it? Projections for the U.S. health care spending range from -- 24% of GDP by 2011 ( http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/hlthaff.w3.1v1/DC1) to --20% of GDP by 2015 (http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/abstract/hlthaff.25.w61) to --“one-third of GDP” by 2050 ( http://www.ncpa.org/pub/st/st286/) If current expectations of care continue (in which you might include “elective care”) eventually hard choices are going to have to be made, e.g., including but not limited to rationing care &/or increased taxes. Medicare & Medicaid are also expected to grow, as those costs are connected to overall increase in medical expenses. Two different estimates: Medicare expenses are estimated to increase from 3.1% (FY06) to 7.3% of GDP by 2035. Medicare expenses are projected to increase to 11.3% of GDP by 2081 (2007 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, pp. 92-93, and 141-142, http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR06/trTOC.html[/urk] & [url]http://www.cms.hhs.gov/ReportsTrustFunds/downloads/AlternativePhysicianUpdate.pdf) The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated the cost of Medicare & Medicaid to consume 21.9% of GDP by 2050, assuming that medical costs overall continue to rise at their historical rate rather than increase (The Long-Term Budget Outlook, Congressional Budget Office, December 2005, http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdoc.cfm?index=6982). I don’t know of any good, robust analysis of the economics of a severe health care strain, such as mutation of H1N1 avian influenza to a strain that is highly contagious human to human. Larry Wein (Stanford Business School, altho’ he’s more of an operations research mathematician) has done some *very good* work constructing models but the assumptions he makes w/r/t the biology and epidemiology have been problematic, im-ever-ho.(References most welcome.) Social Security: ‘Running out of money’ or not expected to maintain a surplus indefinitely? Benefits are expected to exceed income from payroll taxes ~2015. Between ~2015 & 2025, Social Security is expected to cover the gap btw payroll taxes and benefits using interest from investments. Around 2025, economists estimate the Social Security Trust fund will begin redeeming (i.e., cashing out investments), which will impact the overall US federal budget surplus or deficit. In the same analysis cited above, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that Social Security to rise from 4.2% (FY05) to 6.4% of GDP by 2050. Social Security is also fixed *comparatively* to healthcare. Yes, there will be more people (as Baby Boomers retire) but the benefits are not going to increase based on costs of new technology. Benefits from Social Security may actually decrease; it’s not quite the ‘third rail’ of US politics that it once was. Retirement age w/r/t receiving Social Security benefits is already set to increase. ---- Both healthcare and Social Security are facing economic challenges due in no small part to changing demographics. Is the likely impact of increasing healthcare costs potentially going to have a greater impact on the US economy and nation than aging critical infrastructure, especially all the bridges and highways built initially as part of the Eisenhower’s “Limited Access System”? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

And then we could try "victims of illegal employment practices". Yes, I like that one. ---- Yes, discourse and rhetoric matters. How many of us carrying Cypres-equipped rigs through airports have been careful to emphasize it's a small device to release the reserve? Can't even mention "cut" these days in the US, never mind the "small explosive charge." I once was offered a margarita made in a "high speed vortexer." /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying