nerdgirl

What do you see from his thesis that was the critical tipping point? I've read Gladwell's book. I'm trying to understand your point. He noted clearly that the school environment has a larger influence on a kid than does their home/family environment. I don't have the book in front of me, and it wasn't something I would have thought feasible, but his sources seem pretty solid. I guess I’m still not getting how or what you’re connecting from Gladwell’s hypothesis to the thread topic and school environment. Gladwell’s book is about how seemingly small relative changes in an environment can add up to what he calls the Tipping Point, subtitled: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. He applies an epidemiological model, calling them “social epidemics,” regarding how small changes in the right conditions can lead to an epidemic or Hush Puppies being repopularized, i.e., how seemingly small, superficially uncorrelated/unconnected & unexpected factors can have disproportionate effects. And how connectors, mavens, salesmen, stickiness, and context can make an idea fly … or never get off the ground. That’s what I was asking – what is the small, superficially uncorrelated/unconnected, or unexpected factor from American schools environment that you see as having a disproportionate effect w/r/t Americans being able to qualify for military service? I can construct an argument regarding how changes in school environment (like more students, lower caliber teachers) leads a poorer education system … but that’s not a tipping point argument necessarily. Perhaps more interestingly —as I get to subjectively define ‘interesting’ -[at myself] –I can also steal someone else’s (economist Edward Glaeser) argument & data that investment in public education in 1900 explains why the US became a wealthy nation (& why Argentina didn’t, which was the 8th wealthiest nation in 1900). I hypothesize new opportunities for women after WWII in the workforce such that the best-n-brightest pursued other careers, like doctors, lawyers, etc. rather than largely being socially confined to nurse, secretary, or teacher as a tipping point w/r/t education. I can see the Vietnam War as one tipping point related to the thread topic, altho’ not that not a small thing. I can cite former Surgeon General Kessler’s thesis on the food industry manipulating neurological responses, designing foods to induce people to eat more than they should or even want and the discovery of hydrogenation as a tipping point. What’s the tipping point that you see w/r/t school environment as it relates to decline in qualified applicants for the military? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I think Vietnam era... and partly because of racial integration in the services slightly before that. More cultural and ethnic diversity in the military made it "distasteful" to the white middle and upper classes. I would have cited Vietnam as well. But had not thought about the second part. Hmmm .... just want to think about it. Thanks for the response. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

On a personal level, I concur. On a policy level, I’m much more interested -- and very much own this as my prioritization-- in capabilities lost, especially ones that are of US strategic interest. Like loss of Arabic translators. “‘We face a drastic shortage of linguists, and the direct impact of Arabic speakers is a particular problem,’ said Donald R. Hamilton, who documented the need for more linguists in a report to Congress as part of the National Commission on Terrorism,” [i.e., the Bremer Commission, who released their report in June 2000 - nerdgirl] A 2005 GAO report, “Financial Cost and Loss of Critical Skills Due to DOD's Homosexual Conduct Policy Cannot Be Completely Estimated GAO-05-299” found that 757 (or 8%) of the 9,488 service members discharged held “critical occupations” such as “voice interceptor, data processing technician or interpreter/translator." In 2005, the GAO estimated that the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy (DADT) had cost US taxpayers $191 million since 1993. Some charged that was an under-estimation by $173M. And the GAO responded. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Enjoy my old stomping grounds. I am taking my kids there next year to show them where Daddy grew up, went to school, college etc. Ohh, if you see my mom, say Hi lol I'll only be there for about 48hrs - flying over to give a brief then back to ATL. Was there in June for a longer time a few years ago & it was lovely. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

W/r/t my experience – as it sounds like Kate’s experience turned out fabulously! – it was damned painful for a short while. And there was the poor guy, for whom even at the time I felt sympathy, who was stuck sitting next to me on the flight back from Oslo that I cried the entire way. I kept apologizing to him for crying. I’m sure there’s a post on some internet site by that guy somewhere about the ‘trans-Atlantic flight that he had to sit next to the girl who wouldn't stop crying.’ The flight attendant finally just brought me a box of Kleenex ... and another beer. I can laugh at it ... now. We both recognized at some level, even through the painful parts, that we’re two really good humans … just not necessarily good together as a couple. Frankly the distance can make it harder, but it also can (doesn't always tho') prompt one, imo, to communicate and to really figure out what really matters and why rather than just relying on ease of familiarity and proximity. Hopefully your long-distance relationship will have the ending that you want.

That's the part on which I focus too. Altho' it wasn't emphasized in the link that Andy posted, others stories on the retired Generals' report and talk at the National Press Club have mentioned it. To invoke a Malcolm Gladwell, Tipping Point-esque reference, when did that transition occur and what prompted it? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Was it obvious during grenade practice? I'm just asking. I've never participated in grenade practice. All just told me in one form or another, e.g., one guy who was being deployed to Iraq introduced me to his boyfriend at a going-away party. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That's a neat way of looking at it, imo. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks for putting that out there. Had not heard that argument before -- at least as I'm reading it with emphasis on the part I italicized above, it sounds like it recognition or acknowledgement of intolerance by some few (?), very few (?) who will/may create problems. I personally know a few gay men currently serving in the military. They're all in non-combat arms MOS, all highly trained (e.g., psychiatrist), and all in fields that are have challenges keeping folks. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What do you see from his thesis that was the critical tipping point? I've read Gladwell's book. I'm trying to understand your point. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Do you think it should or shouldn't be? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Trans-Atlantic, July 2002 - early 2006. Me in Illinois, California, and DC. Him in Oslo. We met at a 10-day workshop on technical arms control issues. He ended up extending his stay in the US by a month. And it actually worked really, really well. It took effort, but he was very much worth it. Split up for lots of reasons - changing feelings and different directions & desires for the future - he wanted me to move to Oslo and live with him. We're still very good friends. I'll be at The Hague next week, and he's coming over from Brussels for dinner. (Really, just dinner.) He jokes that in 40 years he's going to buy me a cabin adjacent to his north of Sognefjord so that we can retire and write together ... and argue about policy/politics. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Altho’ my original idea was to go as a member of China’s ‘iron rose’ militia, I ended up going as an Egyptian harem girl to coordinate with my date’s costume. Since we were going to a party hosted by a couple gay friends of mine (and this weekend was ATL’s Pride Festival), I knew better than to be a straight girl dressed as a queen, i.e., Hatshepsut or Cleopatra, at a party full of Queens. Fabulous Southern Queens at that. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

It was in 1995 when it was renewed. The 90-day notice for withdrawal is not so clear, especially as things play out in the real world, e.g., DPRK. My take is that an nuclear-armed Iran will destabilize the region. I do not want to see Iran acquire military nuclear capabilities. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I think that's the obvious conclusion [teasing] “Obvious,” eh? So when do I get to hear it on Fox News Sunday or Meet the Press? [/teasing] I don’t really ‘hear’ the National Security Advisor’s comment as being antithetical to my speculations regardless of their novelty or even to GEN McChrystal’s recommendations in general. Am I missing something? I thought that particular interview was more in response to GEN McChrystal’s speech he’d given the week previously at IISS in London. The SecDef a couple days later at the Association of the United States Army annual meeting also chided the speaking out of chain-of-command, i.e., as you know, COMUSFOR-A/COMISAF --> USCENTCOM Commander --> SecDef --> President. See slide. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes. And they've signed the additional protocol. Imo, technically they are not in violation of the NPT. *Not* because I think they're sincere in their claims of pursuit of peaceful nuclear energy. (I don't.) But because when the NPT was written (1960s), it was wrtten that a state in order to be in violation had to be so far to the right in terms of construction of an actual device, i.e., have an actual deliverable device. Imo, it's a largely an artifact of the expectations of the time that states like Iran (or Pakistan) would not have the technolgical capacity to be able to indigenously produce nuclear weapons. The states that could at the time, e.g., Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, weren't of concern as proliferants. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Very cool! Evans is one that I haven't done. There are more I haven't done than one's I've done tho' ... & none on wheels, either self-propelled or not. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

We've been watching (slowly on dvd) the HBO mini-series adaptation of David McCullough's biography John Adams. If McCullough's version contains any truth, the Revolutionary-era Continental Congress shared a lot in common with today. I think the mini-series does an excellent job of showing the debates and disagreements regarding things that are often (& sometimes a-historically) assigned as consensus to the "Founding Fathers," especially between Adams and Jefferson. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I’ve been thinking about/speculating on why Pres Obama has not announced, even if to reject, a response to recommendations included in GEN McChrystal’s report for a bit now, as I wrote in this post. I don’t think it has to do with inability to make decisions, even if that is an opinion expressed, although I'm open to arguments to that end. Since taking office, President Obama has made quite a few decisions regarding Afghanistan, e.g., authorizing increases in combat and support troops (>34k) since February; expanding targets to include major narco-traffickers, i.e., combatting what’s keeping the Taliban flush; authorizing increasing number of drone missions into Pakistan, something about which I have mixed opinions; and the change in leadership from GEN McKiernan to GEN McChrystal. A lot of that, especially the increases in troop numbers, hasn’t gotten much of attention, particularly by the media. If indecision is the explanation, one would have to explain how all of those were anomalies. Until mid-September or so, Pres Obama has, im-ever-ho, been making strategic decisions and forward-looking (rather than just reactionary) w/r/t Afghanistan and supportive of COIN approaches being brought to him by his military and national security advisors. Strategic decisions … not operational and not tactical. Since mid-September, I agree that there has been a lack of publicly-announced major policy decisions … at least ones in public. I’m asking myself, what’s the explanation for the delay *now*? Why? Is it indecision or is it a strategic delay? Domestic politics or something else? Giving current operations the opportunity play out? Re-organizing too often doesn’t solve a problem, it just re-arranges the problems (& ya have to print new business cards ). First-order explanation, imo: decision-making and intra-agency coordination, much more so inter-agency coordination, takes time. There’s more to consider than just GEN McChrystal’s recommendations regarding military force structure for US foreign policy … especially if the intent is not to replicate earlier efforts, i.e., “a whole of government approach is required, one that integrates all tools available international and interagency partners.” If one puts that aside and sets aside allowing current operations time to establish a vector of success or lack thereof, however, on whom is the delay putting pressure? My working hypothesis is that it’s putting pressure on Afghan President Hamid Karzai. The ‘fighting season’ is drawing to a close in Afghanistan. Large numbers of additional troops would not be likely to deploy until late winter/early spring. Who is or what is the single biggest obstacle to implementing a successful counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan at the moment? Imo, President Karzai. Fundamental COIN theory: got to have a vague ‘semblence of credible government. The current legal structure of the Afghan government puts the President as the head and gives him tremendous power, including the naming of provincial governors. If it's just a counterterrorism strategy, one can (more easily) ignore the head of a foreign state. Afghanistan had a presidential election in August. Karazi had to get greater than 50% of the vote to avoid a run-off election. He’s been insisting that he had greater than 50% of the vote basically since 21 August. Final results were only released 7 days ago, showing Karzai with less than 50%. Altho’ there was a fair bit of concern that that he might reject the election committee’s findings, Karzai reluctantly (to put it diplomatically) agreed to a run-off election, which is now scheduled for 7 November. Not releasing the official US strategy and intentions put pressure on Karzai. I also suspect that violence targeting international actors, not just the military, in Afghanistan & Pakistan, will increase between now & 7 November. That's my current speculation ... who wants to poke holes in it? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Same with my '96, 180K+, and still on the same clutch.

Yeah ... I like my lil' purple truck tho.' And it's something of a stubborn thing too - how long can I make the clutch last. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

1995 Ford Ranger 180k+ miles, still the original clutch. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I can certainly empathize personally with that. I've found that most of my favorite photos of me are on top of mountains. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Since the day President Obama received General McChrystal's recommendations. Curious … because I’ve been thinking about this for the last week or so, why do you both (or anyone else) think Pres Obama has not publicly acted? What’s your thinking behind that reasoning? In February, Pres Obama authorized the deployment of 17,000 more combat troops (Marines and soldiers) to Afghanistan almost immediately after he received GEN Petraeus’ request through the SecDef and another 4000 in late March. He's authorized 13,000 “support troops” (civil affairs, engineers, medical personnel, intelligence, and military police) as well. All of that has not got much attention. If one -- which I'm not implying either of you are or would ... or not -- argues that Pres Obama can’t/won’t make a decision or change w/r/t Afghanistan, does one explain those authorizations as anomalies, along with his decision to change leadership? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Difficult in an "elephant repellant" sense, or in the sense that levels of violence aren't expected to decrease in a time frame on the order of the attention span of civilian leadership (regardless of whether someone, somewhere believed things were getting better?) A little of the latter - successful counterinsurgencies, on average, take 12-15 years. But more that measuring the success of a counterinsurgency is just hard. One is trying to measure relatively intangible things or things that can have multiple variables, like confidence in government. Rarely is it counting a physical thing, which is easy. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying