nerdgirl

No worries. I still like you alot.

I think you've highlighted the critical differences between conventional & to some extent counterterrorism approaches (e.g., invocations of kill all the terrorists) and counterinsurgency. GEN McChrystal has asserted that the metric for success is not insurgents killed, or more specifically from his confirmation hearing: "Although I expect stiff fighting ahead, the measure of effectiveness will not be enemy killed. It will be the number of Afghans shielded from violence." Counterinsurgency is not about killing the insurgents. And yes, counterinsurgencies have been effective. The British in Malaya and the US-Philippines effort against Abu Sayyef Group (another radical Islamist terrorist group) over the last 8 years are two examples. Because of your background and your knowledge (that's a compliment btw), your response in this post is perhaps the most interesting and informative to me thus far. Another critical piece of effective counterinsurgency is the views of the domestic population of the counterinsurgents, aka the American public. If you as a smart, knowledgeable individual are seeing the current strategy (which reflects shifts in military/DoD going back to 2004 not the Obama administration) as "how many do "we" have to kill or attack before they will see that we are "right"?" then the US and the DoD are failing at domestic strategic communication as well as the international deficits that SecDef Gates has spoken about. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

It's on today's opinion page. I just went back to it and it's dated OCTOBER 5, 2009, 11:33 P.M. ET Yes, it was published in Monday's Opinion section. Look further down. Right above "New York." /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Now that's the kind of marketing that makes me inclined to investigate whatever gaming console it is (?) that Bioshock plays on (is played on?). /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

FOR CLARIFICATION, ALL OF THESE QUOTES ARE FROM BACEVICH Who's borders? Sealing yourself in and ignoring the enemy only allows them greater freedom and movement. Only a halfwit terrorist would be caught by the yellow pack workers that are employed by border control. Actually controlling access or making the public 'feel' safer? Are airports and seaports not controled to the best of the lacking ability of border agencies at the moment? If not why not? Technology keeps overtaking ICT security progress, good idea in principle but very difficult to negate the human screw up factor This statement alone demonstrates a total lack of understanding of the enemy and his tactics and stratergy. The cold war was fought against states. This is fought against organised and loosely organised groups and individuals following a doctrine of hatred. The funding is not only from donations around across the world but also often not using traditional banking/financial structures (The Tailban et al didn't have a rough time because of Lehman brothers going under) Money is also raised from the Heroin that is produced and exported. Now last time I checked there was already a ban on such trade. As for weapons, anyone who has ever been to Dara market would know that they make them themselves, if you want a good copy of a AK thats the place to be. Also as I remember the 9/11 terrorists brought down three airliners using knifes. I went through a airport twice this week carrying razors in my hand luggage and they confiscated my contact solution as it was 120 mL not 100mL and let me kept the razors. Go figure! They already have billions, if anything it would only serve to accelerate the funding against the west. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

You do realize that the date posted/headline date is "Jan. 20, 2010," yes? Mohamed ElBaradei's term ends in November 2009 as well. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks for posting on the reasons behind your 'no' vote. I chuckled (perhaps a less than diplomatic response) at your comment w/r/t German troops. One meme I recall from Brussels this June was that if the Germans could get any further north they'd be in Tajikistan. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Hmmm ... interesting idea. It's definitely out of the box. Logistical challenge. But even the suggestion would certainly make interesting politics, particularly w/r/t Iran. (How would all those Iraqi troops get to Afghanistan? ) At the time the Soviet Union collapsed, American primacy was not viewed as arrogance. It was viewed as marking 'the end of history' and sign of victory of democracy & free market capitalism. In between then & now, a lot of things happened. Imo, part of it is we are a victim of own success: as far back as the Pres Eisenhower's inaugural speech there has been recognition that increasing the development of the world increases markets to which we can sell goods. In helping raise the status of other countries, new markets were created; we also created competitors economically and groups who were threatened culturally, e.g., radical Salafist & al Qa'eda backlash with goal of recreating the 7th C Islamic Caliphate. Not sure that the genie of the 'flat world' can be put back in the metaphorical bottle. What the world had in 1992 -- global US primacy -- may not be re-attainable. Concur. History is not predictive but it should not be ignored either. (That's a nerdgirl original, afaik ) The question is which history is the most informative. Vietnam is an informative start but also problematic. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan is specious - we're neither looking to occupy nor fighting a conventional war nor is it a Cold War conflict. French in Algeria? British in Malaya? OEF-Philippines? Iraq after counterinsurgency strategy was introduced? The American Revolution? (We were a successful insurgency after all.) /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

While I would agree that the threat was not recognized or down-played for much too long, "only" is perhaps a bit hyperbolic. At least 110 publications & citations dealing with Taliban between 1980 & 1990. Thanks for your comments. I share what I am reading as concerns w/r/t the legitimacy of the current Kabul government. And that extends beyond the elections this past August. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I would argue that in a globalized economy, it is very important. At a first order level, IQ correlates largely with nutrition and exposure (or lack thereof) to certain compounds. Average national IQ also correlates with increased GDP. Something akin to the *data* discussed in IQ & the Wealth of Nations with a physiological (nutrition) and development explanation (rather than latent racial explanation). Therefore raising the average national IQ is likely to raise the average GDP. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I wonder if there's some implicit (if not explicit) necessary but not sufficient level of intelligence for success? I.e., which is truly the independent variable? Malcolm Gladwell has put forth what he calls the 10,000 hour rule, which essentially states that one has to invest 10,000 hours in something to become successful. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Reminds me of the attached cartoon. Is arrogant assertiveness better than (sometimes tentative) questioning? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Interesting question. Not sure. It would depend on a lot of things: who was the person to me? Who was I to that person? What purpose does holding onto the note serve to me? Is it a reminder to me to live life to the fullest, to tell the people I care about how much I care about them, or does it serve some other useful purpose (as I see it)? Maybe then. Maybe not. I've never been the intended or unintended recipient of someone's suicide note, so it's all speculative on my part. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I think that may be what we're starting to see: greater questioning of is the mission counterinsurgency (which is a type of escalation, altho' *very* different from conventional operations) or should it be containment? The current Undersecretary of Defense (Policy) -- 3rd in line w/in DoD --is strongly COIN-leaning. Gates view, imo, is wider than just COIN but extends to larger SSTR (security, stability, transition, reconstruction) issues (reflecting his time at USAID). The Special Advisor on Afghanistan and Pakistan is COIN-leaning. Whole bunch of OSD (Office of Secretary of Defense) appointees are COIN-conversant. /Marg [edited to expand acronyms] Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The situation or GEN McChystal's request for more troops? Can you point to the those docs? (Not necessarily questioning the veracity ... I'm just a 'primary data' addict ... & not a Vietnam scholar by any means.) If Pres Johnson was of that opinion, was it not his obligation to act accordingly? I.e., should the President *always* defer to his generals w/r/t troop deployment? From what I do know about Vietnam, I do think that the Westmoreland and escalation cases are useful models to consider. I.e., history is not predicted but it shouldn't be ignored either. At the same time, one should, imo, recognize that the strategic emphasis was different and that the operational strategies were *very* different - "search and destroy," the aggressive bombing campaigns against North Vietnam that SecDef McNamara feared would constitute genocide if increased (as Generals wanted) in a classified memo to Pres Johnson, etc. Has there ever been a case of a General that has said that and has not been effectively removed from power? (I don't know.) Adm Fallon went too far in some of his comments and retired. Are there counter-examples? (Anyone?) /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes, he's Special Forces. More specifically Army Ranger. (Others can debate/disagree with me whether or not or too what extent that qualifies as SF.) One of the best, imo, ....oh, what's the word I'm looking for (brain-farting at the moment ) ... narrative biographical sketches by another SF officer: The Pope. I wouldn't necessarily call him a COIN guru. He's a definite convert and viewed widely as an operator who can execute and implement COIN-based strategic objectives. Dave Kilcullen is a COIN guru. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Very much appreciate that concept. Suspect that's not uniformly appreciated ... but more are getting it. From a COIN perspective, there is a huge deficit w/r/t training Afghan police as well as the other skill sets you mentioned and the folks to do it. And that's something that GEN McChyrstal specifically noted throughout the 'leaked' COMISAF initial assessment, as well as by others. At the same time I'm not sure that there are enough 'door kickers' to enable security in Helmand, in Farah (how many folks outside of Tehran, intelligence analysts, and me even have western Afghanistan on their proverbial radar?), in Wardag (where the Hizb-e-Islami fighters led by Gulbudin Hikmatya dominate), and a few other provinces. One might argue that much of east (Khost, Kunar, Nangahar, etc) has too many 'door-kickers.' Not sure if that the detailed knowledge one needs or if that's starting to go from strategic to operational: where are which 'baddies' and how to deal with them. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

So far almost half of the respondants have voted 'no'? I'm genuinely curious as to the underlying thinking? If you don't want to post, send me a PM. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Remember when people said the same thing re: what to do in Vietnam? Everyone was telling them to do either A or B; but instead we did C, and the rest is history. I won't be surprised if the same thing happens this time around, too. No, I don't remember. What was "C"? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur. So very strongly concur with the first three sentences. I'm not sure if we do have enough 'door kickers' there. It's what we're asking them to do, in some cases, with which I find problems. 'Door kickers' are trained and usually execute very well their training ... that training is rarely in population-centric, counterinsurgency operations; reconstruction; or stability operations (as you well know). /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Great post - both data and commentary. I appreciate the view from the outside looking in on our domestic politics. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Is that true? (Or is it a negative 'begging the question'?) Is it a false correlation? E.g., do GEN Petraeus and SefDef Gates' leadership qualities have anything to do with their having PhDs in international relations and history, respectively? (That might make them good at Trivial Pursuit ... or enable some interesting anecdotes tho'.) /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

For clarification, by "get out" above, you mean get out of Afghanistan, yes? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I haven't. Do you have a link? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

How do you think we should go about winning? By what methods or strategy? What would you recommend & why? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying