nerdgirl

One piece that doesn’t get much attention in the popular debate has to do with manufacturing capacity. Japan Steel Works is the only supplier of 600MT castings that are required for reactor vessels. They do 4-6/y, aim to increase to 10-12/y. There’s a line. Japan Steel Works charges to *get* in line; countries/companies are selling their spot in line to high bidders. In the US, Babcock & Wilcox (who manages DOE’s Y-12 as part of consortia) is looking to upscale capability but even the best scenarios would not have the manufacturing capacity is limited. One alternative, that is still years away, are smaller designs. The ban on reprocessing originated during President Ford's Adminstration as a response to India's "Smiling Buddha" nuclear weapons test. President Reagan lifted the domestic ban on reprocessing, but no commercial entity has pursued it. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yucca Mountain never opened. It was zero'd out in the budget of the last year of Pres Bush's administration. Pragmatically, we are likely to continue on-site storage. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What's the freakenomics theory? And, no this isn't my area of expertise. I just find the issue comes up and I'm a primary data addict. Looks like there has been at least one study that I found easily that did investigate the correlation between weather and crime: "Weather and Crime" (full text pdf) Abstract: In studying the causes of crime, most criminologists have concentrated on traditional socio-demographic variables, such as age, sex, race, and socio-economic status. However, some researchers have investigated the influence of the physical environment on criminal behaviour. There is a recent theoretical basis for research into the influence of weather on crime: the situational approach, rational choice theory, and routine activities theory all suggest that weather could significantly influence crime rates and criminal behaviour. This paper brings together for the first time the accumulated research on weather and crime. It discusses the theoretical background, examines research into the influence of different weather conditions (such as high temperatures, rain, and wind) on various types of criminal behaviour, outlines problems with the current research, and suggests ways of advancing knowledge about weather and crime. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What was the crime rate there during Javanese/Sumatran rule of the island? I have no idea and think that would be fascinating comparison seriously. Hyperbolically, you don't mean the presence of white people -- or just British colonialsts -- caused crime in Singapore? The British left Singapore in 1946. It's a very interesting place, imo. Very different from the US. Individualism is seen very differently than it is in the US. At the same t ime, they have some similar multi-ethnic/melting pot issues that we do. No you're getting it all wrong.... The UK stopped the captial punishment after control over Singapore. What am I getting wrong? Your second sentence doesn't make sense to me. I think there are some words missing: "after giving up control over Singapore"? The British didn't stop capital punishment in Singapore, and they left in 1946. No what I said was "You know that's why they didn't have a crime problem in Singpore until the UK took over." What I meant was that Singapore had capital punishment until the UK banned it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Singapore The UK never banned capital punishment in Singapore. Singapore has capital punishment today. See the first line of the Wiki article you linked. Before the British took over in the 18th Century, Singapore was part of the Javanese kingdom. I don't know if capital punishment was practiced or what the crime rates were then even notionally. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What was the crime rate there during Javanese/Sumatran rule of the island? I have no idea and think that would be fascinating comparison seriously. Hyperbolically, you don't mean the presence of white people -- or just British colonialsts -- caused crime in Singapore? The British left Singapore in 1946. It's a very interesting place, imo. Very different from the US. Individualism is seen very differently than it is in the US. At the same t ime, they have some similar multi-ethnic/melting pot issues that we do. No you're getting it all wrong.... The UK stopped the captial punishment after control over Singapore. What am I getting wrong? Your second sentence doesn't make sense to me. I think there are some words missing: "after giving up control over Singapore"? The British didn't stop capital punishment in Singapore, and they left in 1946. /Mar Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What was the crime rate there during Javanese/Sumatran rule of the island? I have no idea and think that would be fascinating comparison seriously. Hyperbolically, you don't mean the presence of white people -- or just British colonialsts -- caused crime in Singapore? The British left Singapore in 1946. It's a very interesting place, imo. Very different from the US. Individualism is seen very differently than it is in the US. At the same t ime, they have some similar multi-ethnic/melting pot issues that we do. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

One might say that the example of the Nazi's shows that over-reliance on names are problematic. Similarly nation-states that are called Democratic and Republics, like the DPRK, are neither democratic nor republics. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Prime Minister (and General) Thein Sein. What wall needs to come down there that you would ascribe to socialism or marxism? Karl Marx? Do you think he was a dictactor? On what do you base that? What political position do you think he held? Like this, perhaps? That's one way you could choose to interpret my question. Or you could have chosen to respond with a specific case. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Wow! Those are quite striking. Thanks for posting the images. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Is that a 'wall' or exercise of allotted power? Or un-allotted power? Is there a specific case to which you are referring because I'm not aware of one. (That might be multiple.) If I'm reading your comments correctly, it almost sounds as if you're advocating for a 'fire wall' of sorts between technical experts and exercise of political power? Is that correct? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Do you have a specific example? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks for that example. I wasn't aware of it. Something for me to learn more about. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur. I'll even push it a lil' further -- identifying that there is a problem is easy compared to figuring out the causes. (Figuring out solutions is harder and implementing and executing the solutions is hardest.) We have had a few discussions at times trying to pull apart some of the causes both of murder and crimes rates. Imo, a big step is disentangling correlation with causation. There may also be physical/physiological causes, e.g., one known physiological link (correlation … possible causation) has been found for increase in violent crime: lead poisoning in US cities in the late 1970s & 1980s and with the accompanying decrease in crime in the 1990s as exposure to lead has decreased (via elimination of lead in gasoline & paint). Lead … not gun availability or gun control. Is that likely to be the only factor? No. Very, very rarely (if ever) are there single independent variable explanations for observed social phenomena, of which incidence of crime is an example. Previous discussion on role of lead and an illustrative response here. In my mind, at least, the lack of correlation between legal access to guns (i.e., liberal gun laws) and crime, including murder, has been demonstrated convincingly. Does anyone have new data to suggest otherwise? W/r/t social or cultural factors, imo, it’s important to keep in mind: if there are social and cultural factors (variables) at play, particularly w/r/t homicide, we’re generally debating 0.5%, 2%, at most 5% changes in violence levels domestically (per capita). If one goes back to historical data: overall violence has declined most dramatically as the impact of religion on western society has decreased and secular & civil-based law has increased. An anecdotal observation that I've heard repeatedly from APD officers -- so it's just that: anecodotal, i.e., the kind of thing that might spur further investigation but not on which I would base thinking or policy recommendations-- is that crime decreases in Atlanta when it rains. (How often does it rain in the UK or Ireland?) /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That's brilliant. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I will.

Twitter has had running stream of tweets that featuring '#FOTW' (Fall of the Wall) since the end of October. As discussion moved to the question of which walls still have to come down and responses from and against China increased, the Chinese government blocked access to Twitter wall. Height of irony, eh? Or recognition that electronic walls are more (?) or as (?) powerful than physical walls in the 21st Century? Which walls still have to come down across the world? And oh-my-goodness, PM Gordon Brown sounded inspiring and dare I say, charismatic, during his remarks on Monday night in Berlin. And major kudos to him for citing Burma! The mayor of Berlin, President Sarkozy, and PM Brown all mentioned reduction in nuclear weapons. President Medvedev was silent on nuclear weapons. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

In the excerpt you cited, Gladwell’s not stating that the influence of schools outweighs the influence of parents for all kids. He’s not even asserting that for most kids. He’s trying to find an explanation for why some minority of kids choose to smoke regardless of influence of parents and influence of schools. Schools teach kids the potential physiological harm of smoking, e.g., lung cancer, emphysema. That’s pedagogy, i.e., what schools are supposed to do; it’s a direct message not a meme leading to a ‘tipping point.” Nonetheless a minority of kids still choose to start smoking, even when their parents don’t smoke too/also/as well. He’s also challenging the argument that there is a genetic predisposition to smoke (or by extension to addictive behavior), i.e., the ‘nature’ part of the ‘nature’ vs ‘nurture’ debate and the role of genes in influencing behavior rather than just physical traits. Gladwell’s seeking an explanation for the behavior of that minority of kids not the majority. He doesn’t address whether the majority of kids are influenced more or less by the family, by schools, or by “social peer group.” In finding his explanation for those kids who choose to start smoking, he’s not talking about comparing the influence of the family socially versus the school socially. It’s “social peer group” -- social peer group is different than the school environment, i.e., the difference btw burn-outs and Boy Scouts or athletes. Another more common term for Gladwell’s explanation is peer pressure. I could write more about how I might see Gladwell’s ideas, including those in the section you excerpted relate to (or not) the thread topic. And I do agree with you that there *are* places where it relates … but your comments suggest that you’re not really interested in talking about it. I’ll choose to see a small bright-side or small movement forward tho’ in getting you to site the excerpt from the book. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I haven’t read the book from which the script was adapted. But I do know that one of the main characters is based on retired Army COL John Alexander and some of his experiences and programs. (His wife’s review of the movie.) I met him in 2007 at one of the Army’s “Mad Scientists” conferences. Am curious to see how faithfully he resembles his Hollywood depiction. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks. I try.

Hey, I use "one" as a non-specific pronoun all the time ... is that a personal attack on me? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Ain't gonna happen I hope you're wrong ... but the popular vector of domestic politics does seem to suggest you're correct. Folks seem to recognize it, but there does not seem to be much forward movement to do anything. Why? Otoh, especially w/r/t the specific data cited in the "Ready, Willing, And Unable To Serve" report (as opposed to the emphasis in the media & the discussion here), I would like to see a historical comparison on academic achievement/education adequacy of the American 18-24yo recruiting pool 50 & 100 years ago? While there are exceptions, educational and training requirements for American military personnel are increasing. Over the last 50 years, the vector is accelerating in the direction of needing folks who are smarter and more educated ... not just 'warm bodies.' As someone mentioned, in most services to advance w/in the officer ranks one must acquire a master's degree. (The caliber of some, not all, of those degrees is another subject ... and sometimes that's not the fault of the service member but demands of the institutional service or just a bunch of other things.) In 2009 we test more than we did in 1959 or 1909; 'better' may be more subjective. Overall, 85% of adults have high school degrees (last years census data available). The highest rate ever in the history of the US. Btw 1995 and 2009, on-time graduation rates have increased (data). Places like Las Vegas have been exceptions to the general trend that includes urban schools. Which is not to imply that there are not problems w/r/t public education, I do wonder how much is a 'manufactured crisis'? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What do you see from his thesis that was the critical tipping point? I've read Gladwell's book. I'm trying to understand your point. He noted clearly that the school environment has a larger influence on a kid than does their home/family environment. I don't have the book in front of me, and it wasn't something I would have thought feasible, but his sources seem pretty solid. I guess I’m still not getting how or what you’re connecting from Gladwell’s hypothesis to the thread topic and school environment. Gladwell’s book is about how seemingly small relative changes in an environment can add up to what he calls the Tipping Point, subtitled: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. He applies an epidemiological model, calling them “social epidemics,” regarding how small changes in the right conditions can lead to an epidemic or Hush Puppies being repopularized, i.e., how seemingly small, superficially uncorrelated/unconnected & unexpected factors can have disproportionate effects. And how connectors, mavens, salesmen, stickiness, and context can make an idea fly … or never get off the ground. That’s what I was asking – what is the small, superficially uncorrelated/unconnected, or unexpected factor from American schools environment that you see as having a disproportionate effect w/r/t Americans being able to qualify for military service? I can construct an argument regarding how changes in school environment (like more students, lower caliber teachers) leads a poorer education system … but that’s not a tipping point argument necessarily. What’s the tipping point that you see w/r/t school environment as it relates to decline in qualified applicants for the military? You're reading too much into my statement. I wasn't trying to tie in Gladwell's overall thesis, I was citing a specific part of his book. I asked the question because I was curious what you saw in Gladwell's work that connects to the thread topic. That's all. At first I was curious to see what it was with full expectation that there was something there. The point: that I wanted to read more on *your* thinking. (It's a compliment not a criticism.) Now, I'm wondering if you may have read something into Gladwell's work that isn't his point ... but I'm not sure ... that's why I asked the question the 2nd time with context. Because your reply didn't make sense in the context of the work cited. (As opposed to telling you what you're doing, as you did to me: "you're reading too much into my statement".) /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

ie, stop letting teachers/schools blow off PE and recess. Even in the 80s, the quantity of PE I did varied considerably by location (I went to 8 different schools in K-12). Since then, I believe the levels have only decreased. Did you look at the report? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Primary data: “75 Percent of Young Adults Cannot Join the Military: Early Education across America is Needed to Ensure National Security.” It’s only 16 pages, with lots of figures. (I looked at those first. -[at myself]). There’s also are reports individualized to each of the 50 States, i.e., good for using to make the case to one’s federal and State Senators and Representatives to fund early education programs, e.g., Head Start. The top level/take-home message I took from my quick look is build more schools and invest in public education. Edit to add: maybe Glaeser's findings on investment in public education is more related than I initially thought. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying