snowmman

This is sad, just happened a couple weeks back. thought i'd post it for info when thinking about splash theories. Might have jumped off the 205 bridge into the Columbia? Body was discovered by fisherman up by Kalama, which is North of where the Lewis River enters the Columbia. I guess it's a possible example of what might happen with human body into the columbia at the 205 bridge area? unclear. http://www.columbian.com/news/localNews/2008/05/05292008_Body-found-in-river-identified.cfm Body found in river identified Thursday, May 29, 2008 By JUSTIN CARINCI and JOHN BRANTON, Columbian staff writers A body found May 18 in the Columbia River near Kalama has been identified as Camille Ann McCarthy, 49, of Vancouver, according to a Cowlitz County sheriff’s bulletin released Wednesday. McCarthy was last seen May 17. Her 1989 Plymouth Voyager minivan was found unoccupied, facing south, on the Interstate 205 Bridge on May 21. There were no signs of foul play. The body was found about one mile north of Martin’s Island, south of Kalama. A dive team recovered the body after it was discovered by a fisherman, and it was identified as McCarthy by the Cowlitz County Coroner’s Office. The cause and manner of McCarthy’s death remain under investigation. Anyone who saw McCarthy or her minivan between May 17 and 21 is asked to call Detective Joe Reiss at 360-577-3079.

(I may be just seeing nothing here, but thought I'd throw it out) referencing the new hi-res pdx flight path map http://www.n467us.com/Data%20Files/FBI%20Flight%20Path%20PDX.jpg if you zoom in, you can see faint red "+" pencil? marks behind the black flight path as you go from SEA to PDX There are also 3, maybe 4 of these red "+" marks just NW of Portland. They seem handdrawn to me. They're not anywhere else except under the flightpath and just NW of Portland. Ckret: any idea what these red "+"'s mean, near Portland? As I follow the flight path up N towards SEA, some of the tic marks are off the flight path, as if the flight path was approximated with a straight line. Some have the time with an arrow, pointing to them. Which makes me think they are radar time+location marks? Could the ticks be a logged radar position from that night? What would the ticks near Portland be then? They are drawn heavier. Maybe something else? (edit) They almost look like predicted landing sites

Man we have evidence all around us and I keep forgetting it. The farmer found the McNally money bag. He didn't find money all around his fields. The McNally bag was a airline mail courier bag or something like that? I think? probably similar tensile/burst strength to the Cooper canvas bag...or close enough. So we have our experiment. Very close in altitude, and higher exit speed? And the bag didn't burst. It wasn't tied with rope, probably zipper. But it's good data.

Even though I didn't want to accept the money in the Columbia, it seems like I'm forced to. chain of thought: 1) Feels like I have to accept guru312's "money bag doesn't stay with Cooper'. 2) Given the flight path (consult Sluggo's last posts for jpgs), there's no way for alternative hydrology (see some of my "what we need" jpg theories) to work, if the money bag is in free fall without canopy drift. And if the money bag is lost due to forces, then it has to be before canopy open. 3) So money bag has zero drift. 4) So the money bag had to end up in the Columbia, not the alternative idea of Vancouver Lake then to Tena Bar. 5) And it had to be close to where the flight path crosses the Columbia? (maybe not) By predicting the freefall money bag then, we can actually refine the Cooper jump point pretty exactly, and then draw Cooper's drift line assuming he got chute deployment. I'm following some thin threads here, and you probably have to reread to see if I'm talking thru my hat, but I'd like to hear if there is any alternative thinking? Doesn't going in reverse from money to Cooper's jump point work now. So we can actually predict Cooper's landing site pretty precisely with a canopy drift line? Or: Do we have to accept some alternative hydrology, where it travels in some water channel before it hits the Columbia. Doesn't that lower the likelihood of travelling as an intact bag to Tena Bar? (damage?) In the Columbia straight off the bat seems the more likely scenario to me?

good insight on the bag + rope tying guru312 We could even do this experiment on the ground with jumpers. I'm not even sure jumpers who know what they'll be hit with could do a good job (edit) based on what you've just said. Give 10 people the same stuff, tell them to tie it on, then go around and try to whack it off them with a baseball bat, pinata style. Probably get a bunch of them loose with just one whack. And if you don't like one of them, just swing low, and claim "Sorry, Science you know!" :) Edit: But now it begs the question: so you're thinking the bag wouldn't stay on, but would stay secure enough to not explode on impact? Any personal experiences with bags of stuff hitting soft ground at terminal? What kind of speed would the bag have anyhow? similar to human body?

No, you're thinking discrete drift lines when there's nothing about the 8:15 "guess" that says we need to step in discrete time quanta. The '72 map introduced this idea of discrete drift line predictions, which makes no sense for what we're talking about. It was a shortcut cuz they didn't have the right tools then. We have to draw a drift "zone" ..If the canopy drift distance is fixed (because we know chute/load/wind) then it will create a line that's parallel to the flight path. This line should have a thickness that covers the drift line prediction variance. Then we'll have a ground target line...a fattish one. It's not about circles. If you start thinking circles, it's all wrong and we might miss something?

Ckret: you're jumping the gun here. You immediately talk about the Columbia for water movement. It may be most likely, but the Vancouver Lake, Shillapoo Creek, flooding to Lower River Rd theory I threw out, is possible also. Because Vancouver Lake is so large, it's not immediately dismissable, I think. georger was the first to introduce this alternate water path. I posted jpgs of the distance across Shilapoo in that creek, from the north channel of Vancouver Lake, and it's not that bad. It could actually be more plausible as the low velocity water movement that georger seems to like better. I'm not pushing this idea. Just don't see why you jumped to the Columbia already.

Ckret You posted a picture of the supposed money bag a long time back. Open top, typical, bank "money sack" if I'm not mistaken. Not a zippered bag or anything like that. Long term, on the ground, no matter how it was tied with rope, the rope would eventually loosen and money could dribble out. Or maybe the bag would decompose before that. Hard to tell which would happen first. But: Although the money is a flexible material, it's also possible that the money bag exploded on impact. (edit) maybe not a full explosion..tear, etc. I've seen heavy nylon bags drop 3000 ft and explode. But it all depends on what it hits. Hitting mud (we know it was raining) can absorb a lot of shock. Don't know about hitting water or shredding on bushes or trees. So I would start with: if the bag separates from Cooper and lands on soft ground in that area, (it was Nov, so ground may already be saturated from rainy season?) does the bag explode and bundles everywhere? Showing that the bag doesn't explode, and the bundles don't display the shock impact that georger referred to, would make it plausible that the money could have arrived on the ground independently of cooper. People with experience doing air drops might be able to chime in here, about whether a bag with money would survive as a bag once it hits the ground in freefall.

dnhump. as long as we're talking apologies, I always thought I owed nickdg one cause I mister bill'ed off him way back, and I never met the guy and don't even know what a mr. bill. is. He probably won't know what the hell I'm talking about, but I wanted to apologize.

(edit) I just saw ckret's post. I'll have to find ckret's data again. 377 gave some anecdotal info about storms and wind in that general area. i.e. that accompanying rain statistically gives a further hint about wind direction at that location. We can get the same hint, I believe, from the wind rose, without being so anecdotal. We know surface wind speed that day at that location. So we can look at the wind rose, and just look at cases where the wind speed was 10-11 knots or more. The wind rose uses meter/sec. The conversion is knots x 0.515 = meters/sec So let's say 5.6 meter/sec That means all the yellow data can be ignored in the rose. (light wind almost equally likely from all directions) To have a wind strong enough to meet measurements, it looks like it's very likely to have come from ESE or SE. I suspect this is also correlated to an accompanying rain, based on what 377 has said. I think it's also reasonable to conclude that the wind direction in this case will be similar to 10,000 ft. We can probably estimate the wind gradient as we go up in altitude, based on the gradient that's been reported before, nearby, on 11/24/71. Just from memory, I think that was a peak around 20 knots at 10,000 ft? So I think we have info for a canopy drift line guess. Now we have fuzziness about where to put the jump line...at least 1 or 2 minutes of fuzziness around the curvy flight path, till PDX. (depends on opinions) If Cooper landed in heavy residential areas, he might have been spotted. So we might prefer guessing at drift lines and jump points that meet the canopy drift line requirements, and flight path requirements, but end in more open land. I suppose using today's Google Earth will confuse us, because Vancouver is so much more developed. Just guessing from the '71 air map, it seems there's a lot more open area. So maybe there's nothing to make one guess towards Vancouver Lake, exactly. I still am biased to thinking that the jump point on the flight path, is somehow aligned to the Ingram money find, but maybe not. I'm also biased against much hydrology at work for moving money. But I have no data/insight there.

hmm. and exactly what State would that be georger...

I have an excerpt from a local news article 11/26/71 that said Tina was from Bucks County, PA. It named a town but Bucks County is sufficient. It's in the SE corner of PA.

This could be a stunning find because it gives us a statistical idea of surface wind direction at Portland International Airport in Nov. In short, it says ESE or SE winds are statistically most likely, from '61-'90, in Nov. And by a significant amount. It does show S winds as being next likely, like my NOAA daily map showed for the daily report. But winds shift during the day, and it's hard to find hourly data for '71 Although a 3 CDROM set can be purchased that has it, supposedly. But I like the idea that it shows that the rose shows there's a statistical likelihood of winds from the ESE which we would need for a DZ that ends near Vancouver Lake. The attached .emf file should open in windows picture and fax viewer if you click on it. Tell me if you have problems. You probably have to zoom in to read everything in it. downloaded from ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/downloads/climate/windrose/oregon/portland details on what it means are at: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/climate/windrose.html This is very deep info. It analyzes wind direction and frequency for 30 years from 1961 to 1990 at a weather station, and produces what's called a "wind rose". What's interesting is that a single wind rose can give a probability estimate for 1961-90. The site produced them for each month, at each weather station. I have attached November, for the Portland Intl. Airport station. Surface wind speed is easier to get for a particular day. Around 10-11 knots with a max of 14 knots, still looks correct for Portland on 11/24/71. (downloaded from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/climatedata.html I guess mean? don't know hourly. quoting the site: A wind rose gives a very succinct but information-laden view of how wind speed and direction are typically distributed at a particular location. Presented in a circular format, the wind rose shows the frequency of winds blowing FROM particular directions. The length of each "spoke" around the circle is related to the frequency of time that the wind blows from a particular direction. Each concentric circle represents a different frequency, emanating from zero at the center to increasing frequencies at the outer circles. The wind roses shown here contain additional information, in that each spoke is broken down into discrete frequency categories that show the percentage of time that winds blow from a particular direction and at certain speed ranges. All wind roses shown here use 16 cardinal directions, such as north (N), NNE, NE, etc.

So, the implication is that there was a distributed field support kind of organization. Then they would have distributed information on paper to the various phone centers/offices, that the phone techs could consult. So: Either the information about boxes being deployed was on paper somewhere...potentially multiple copies distributed to multiple sites, or someone got called and distributed info that was in possibly just one file somewhere, or in someone's head. I'm still betting that someone called someone who called Good Old Joe who just knew. I'd like to know who Good Old Joe was that night. There's no way I can believe a story that it was a random tech on the phone. That might be true today, with computerized info and search. Hard to believe in '71. Especially if it was "food drop" data for The Del Monte Company.

Does anyone want me to post a new kmz? I don't know if anyone else is using google earth. (you're missing out big time if you're not) I have a new one with the new high res image overlay ('71 flight map) that sluggo got... I can add sluggo's vortac/v23 stuff (he didn't seem to mind before). It's basically the same info around portland/battle ground that I've posted before, but it includes more of the flight path now. Sluggo: did you update your site to fix the first half high res file? I sent you email.

(ok, I know I joke sometimes. I'm trying to think seriously here about this. And it may be obvious to everyone, but I'll belabor it as usual) The "pressure bump by stairs" sounds obvious, but it's not really. We can discuss the actual physics I think. I was mulling over the actual air dynamics involved with the bump effect. It's substantial enough that we should be able to model it. It wasn't a subtle thing. Here's one thing we have to remember. The stairs apparently have some kind of cloth/nylon? stuff between the handrail and the stairs. Probably to keep passengers from falling thru or dropping stuff thru there while going up/down the stairs. So the stairs are more than stairs. They are almost like a "scoop" . Granted the scoop would be too leaky to grab something like water. But it seems like it could grab air if the stairs banged up. If so, you could calculate the increase in cabin pressure. If you assume the total amount of air grabbed by the stair/handrail "scoop" was pushed back in the plane in zero time, then there's that much more air in the total cabin. This percentage increase would give a "static" increase in pressure. The cabin is so large, that it doesn't seem to make sense, that the "percentage increase in air" would be enough of an effect to cause a bump? so there's got to be more... Now here's where the physics comes in and I'm out of my league. But it should be something a real scientist could do calcs about.... Vortex air guns? Now maybe not a true ring vortex, but it gets us thinking about it correctly, I think. It's not just air pressure increase. It's like an air bullet.. a weaponized (2006) version is described here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vortex_ring_gun You know those air guns that allow you to blow out a candle from across the room? I was reminded of this, because not kidding, I heard a story of a scientist who after he saw one, built a huge one that he would use to knock snow off trees onto unsuspecting friends. Here's a link to an actual version of the toy This japanese video is good to watch there... http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/Science-Fiction-News.asp?NewsNum=1334 So its not just about the amount of air grabbed by the stair. It's the HIGH SPEED[/B] transition of the stairs from open to close, along with the scoop effect that keeps the air from squishing away. Think of it like a big plunger, not just stairs Some may also remember the Mattel Agent Zero M Sonic Blaster 5530 from childhood which was similar. I found an original video from back then on the Sonic Blaster...brought back memories http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kv4iMhMhf7o good to watch. shows kirk russell knocking down stuff with high speed "air bullet" essentially.

Yes, It's also reasonable to assume that pilots would not be familar with cities without airports, like Vancouver. If they land at PDX all the time and are familar with Portland thru that entry point...everything approaching PDX at lower light levels may mentally be "suburbs". Especially since as noted, Vancouver was smaller then. It's just another important case to note where the transcripts might represent opinions at the time, not necessarily facts.

Ckret: Sluggo has advanced the theory that the comment about seeing the suburbs of Portland may actually have been a reference to Vancouver. Looking at the 1971 air map, one can see that the likely "lighted" area of Vancouver was much smaller than today. Also: the North end of Portland butts up against the columbia, and is mostly city? So since they're coming from the north, it's unlikely they would actually see suburbs of Portland first . Are we in agreement that they were probably seeing Vancouver to some degree? I'm paraphrasing a discussion I had with Sluggo, but he can chime in to correct, or restate. (edit) If in fact they were reporting seeing the southern suburbs of Portland, it's a whole nuther ball of wax. But that's unlikely, right?

yes, but remember there is no such "thing" as Boeing..it's all people. There's likely no computers or database to interrogate in 1971? It's very unlikely anyone punched a search query into a computer terminal. (hmm... someone might know how much of Boeing records/files were computerized in 1971, possibly little). The first line contact probably said "I dunno...I need to talk to xyz" or "I dunno, you need to call xyz" It's like there was a chain of information flow that had to happen. And it had to happen thru people. At some point, maybe someone consulted some files. Someone would have to have access to those files. More likely, the chain went till someone had it in their head already, as a maybe foggy memory. There's a lot of scenarios possible. We might never know, now, if the interviews didn't pursue it. However, you never know if some of the folks are still alive and might remember. It might not be worth pursuing though.

Is his age a prime number? If so the information is probably pretty reliable. The encryption devices developed at Paradise Ranch were all based on prime numbers. Sluggo: in the future, maybe we can refer to all such info as coming from "The Box"

Good job highlighting this stuff again Sluggo. I just realized something...The pilot said they were reading the proposed procedure? Is the pilot reading notes that he's taken? There's no way there's a manual on the plane he could be consulting on this procedure. Did the info come in prior radio messages, and he's just confirming it now with Flt Ops? If Flt Ops had given info that he took notes on, I always wondered where Flt Ops got their info. Did they find a report quickly? Probably not...no quick computer search for pdf files back then? Human search..probably they called someone on a telephone. Who did they call? We'll probably never know, although if it was '71 we'd obviously pursue this detail a lot, just to know. I'm thinking they must have called someone, cause on Thanksgiving Eve, with the timeline we have, it's unlikely someone with the right knowledge happened to be in Flt Ops, or got dragged in quickly enough. Although maybe that was the scenario. Can't tell.

good info. On the "food drop" tests, I'm assuming they only tested stair deployment? i.e. they didn't do real box drops like the FBI did? Ckret has said the FBI was the first "reported" to do the drop test that led to the "popping" data...but I'm wondering. I'm wondering how they (whoever the pilot is referring to) tested "stair deployment" if the stairs don't deploy unless weighted. What exactly did they test? Did the agent doing the interview press this issue? I suspect there was more info to be gained, that maybe was not realized to be important, at the time? As others said when the issues was raised a couple of pages ago this is correct. In order to take off you obviously need a higher angle of climb to get in the air. This often means the tail is going to come fairly close to the runway on takeoff. With the stairs down it is pretty much a given that it would've lead to tailstrike. Here is visual evidence showing you why. a 727 takeoff http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2WeKH04who a 727-100 landing http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WloSnR35IU

I'm going to multiply the error bounds with this, but combining the middle US theory with a college theory might say he went to college somewhere in the middle US. Me, I'm biased away from military being a primary thing, although maybe a contributor. Upper level military? the buzzcut and the linear thinking and weird convoluted staccato communications gets embedded in those guys. It's like that's where our tax money goes...to program those guys. So that doesn't really resonate, for me. (edit) Just realized this sounds offensive. Yes it reflects a bias. But people can tell me if I'm off base. No accent would simply mean he was from the middle of the US somewhere. Same old trick with national newscasters. It would also imply english as the primary language and having been born in the US by parents who used english as their primary language. The lack of slang may indicate a higher level of education. Not necessarily a college, but it could also be from further education and leadership courses from with in the upper enlisted ranks of the military. It also points away from someone with a previous conviction. I've yet to meet someone who has done any sort of jail or prison time that hasn't picked up some sort of none-popular slang.

thanks for the pic Jo. I get a better feel of Duane being a fun guy to be around. The tattoo is interesting. Any idea when he got it? trust me Jo..you don't want to know! It'd be better if Ckret sat around watching "Heat" over and over again, I think!

Yeah georger, maybe you're right. I always figured if Cooper lived, there would always be a backstory that we'd never hear about, like did a shrink ever tell him he was psychotic, and meanwhile Cooper is thinking. "hmm maybe I am,....what's real anyhow?". If he's halfway intelligent, he might realize he could be. But if you're Cooper, how could you tell? One of those mysteries of life. Our problem is we can only see Cooper from the outside. Even if we put together a reasonable story, it probably won't be complete. I guess it doesn't need to be for solving this puzzle from the crime point of view, but at least should give us a little compassion for human frailties. I'm guessing a lot of things that made up Cooper could be considered both strengths and weaknesses, depending on context. Probably got rewarded and punished at different times for exactly the same behaviors. I've read that psychopathic tendencies end up actually being rewarded in businesses at certain levels. Which is why we need the good guys like Ckret, to help everyone stay in between the white lines!