snowmman

no attachment. This sounds like a new photo. Please attach! remember you have to hit "upload" after you browse and pick the photo. Then "submit" Although you've done it before successfully...?

Hi 377. Thinking about what you said: (edit)..just read your updated post...thanks, FUNNY! This info Ckret on his recent chat with Brian is new information. The idea of "debris in the area" doesn't seem consistent with what the dig photos show, but maybe we're talking about small debris. I was thinking if the debris was large, it would mean that the money bag deposited 3 bundles and then left the area with the rest of the money (possibly some was lost earlier though) without getting snagged on this debris and without depositing more bundles nearby. This assumes the debris was there before or at the same time as the money bag. Could be after though. This all assumes you subscribe to a bag-moves-with-water theory. There were cows in the area. I once had a large model rocket land in a field and overnite cows chewed it in half. A reasonable theory would be that cows chewed the money bag, depositing the 3 bundles. Or that earth moving machinery did. I'm only half-serious, but mainly trying to show there is no data supporting water movement. It's just a random guess. A key question is whether the money bag got ripped off on jet exit. If that is highly likely, than water movement theories make more sense. BUT: if the money bag got ripped off on jet exit, it's probably because it slipped out of the rope bindings. I might guess that meant the ropes stayed with cooper, while the bag slipped out..remember the rope is just wrapped around the bag..no attach points on the bag. Parachute suspension line is slippery? Also, the bag has to come loose, but the top has to stay closed. Maybe there were multiple ropes, so the top didn't come open on the loss of the money bag. I have a hard time with the "money bag lost" plus "money bag still tied up when it hits the ground" scenario. And I can't understand why more bills weren't found. It's hard to believe the bag first "opened" at Tena Bar, releasing the money from a protected environment. I can't picture a full story about the money that makes sense, other than a plant or other human intervention.

Georger, If you're correct, it doesn't matter what people think. If you give up so easy, then it was right to push back on you, cause it's more likely you're wrong. I think you're wrong. I don't care what other people think. I also have no connection to the other folks you mention. That's in your own head.

Reply> The money arrived no earlier than 1974, and no later than the last flood which could have left it there, minus time for silt eroded in the meantime to yield the 2" silt overlay found. You don't know the patterns of silt deposit and erosion. There could be 2" of deposit and erosion daily for all we know, during the high water period. The high water mark may be reached every year for all we know. You don't have the 1980 Tina Bar geology report, so you don't know if it's in error about the clay layer. You also don't have data on the material that was moved during dredging. What you're saying is that you heard a geologist said something and you believe it. You don't have data on whether earth moving equipment moved sand on Tina's Bar or not. Or whether the sand on Tina Bar is a mixture of dredging spoils and natural sediment deposit. So all you can really say firsthand is "I Don't Know".

Let's assume I planted a stack of $20's at Tina Bar this past weekend, about 3" into the sand, 30' up from the current shoreline. How long do you think before it's going to be found? (DZ.com readers don't count) A) Never B) 1 year C) 5 years D) 10 years Newspapers have lasted 15 years in landfills (inhibited microbial action). We don't have good data on the decomposition of US currency covered in wet sand in the Tina Bar environment (temperature, microbes, etc). But I think it's reasonable that if not flooded away, 10 years might be a upper limit before natural decomposition to nothingness. Second question: Aluminum and tin cans and plastic float and last longer than paper. How many 5-10 year old tin cans/plastic/aluminum cans exist about 3" below the surface at Tina Bar? A) none B) some C) a lot if A) none, why not?

I finished reading all of Catch-22. Sluggo was wrong. (post 2204) Snowden's parachute wasn't missing. Snowden was wearing it. The morphine Yossarian tried to give Snowden was missing, replaced by a note. Yossarian tried to give aspirin instead. "There, there," said Yossarian. "There, there." He pulled the rip cord of Snowden's parachute and covered his body with the white nylon sheets. "I'm cold." "There, there." (End of chapter 41 "Snowden," pp. 463-4)

georger: I have two facts that might apply: 1) I drove past Woodburn this weekend 2) 377 has fished for tuna, and has used rubber bands.

You find 3 bundles of cash, out of a larger known group, in the sand. Nearby are a river, and a road. Your scientists tell you that the decomposition and state of the money is consistent with all decomposition happening at the find site. There is no data that suggests movement beyond the find site. You're missing the jumper, the bag, and the rest of the money. There's no data that says the jumper had to have died. The detective in the tan coat says it's obvious the money arrived via the river. The detective in the grey coat says it's obvious the money arrived via the road. (human plus car). Detective Tan says "But Why?" Detective Grey says "To achieve the effect that it did from 1980-2008..no investigation." Or was there some other reason there was no investigation?

There are 3 kinds of people in the world. Those who move money by water, and those who move it by hand. A) There is no evidence of the money moving via water displacement. Therefore we should assume first that the money was planted by humans. B) There is no evidence of human money plant. Therefore we should assume first that the money was moved via water. Let's examine those two statements. Which is more likely true, given what data we have? One could argue that if the second was true, we should have found more money, or the bag elsewhere. Wouldn't discovery of other money be more likely than non-discovery, given the fact of discovering 3 bundles? So: The more likely scenario is the first. Explain where I'm wrong, in terms of probability... Pretend I'm putting money down on a craps table, and trying to figure out what's more likely.

1) There is no data that suggests any method of money arrival at Tina Bar is more likely than another. Ckret's talk about natural causes for the movement (water) being more likely is based on no data. He's just being a bad FBI agent. It's just b.s. There are 100 ways the money could have arrived there. All are equally likely based on the data we have. 2) The full data for the circumstances of the Ingram find has not been released. The full list of relatives and children present is not available. The story told by 5-year old Denise of finding the money first has been dismissed for unknown (to us) reasons. 3) There is a recurring myth that only two of the bundles had rubber bands, and that the third had none and was thinner. Be nice to confirm/deny that. In short, there's nothing to be gained in discussing the money find as we currently know it, unless we have/get more data. Sure you can explore all you want about water levels, but it will prove nothing. Even with the exact right water movements, the money could have arrived there thru alternate means. One analysis that's needed is a accurate min-max lifetime of the money at Tena Bar. Also an analysis of what caused the purple colorations. I'm scratching my head at why people want to talk about the money find more? Isn't it just a waste of time? Or am I missing something? If you assume Cooper augered in, then you might use the money find plus hydrology to create a search area. If you believe Cooper survived, then you have to believe the money bag came off, to start wondering about hydrology theories. Either way there's no supporting data. Ckret can't prove the money bag came off, or that Cooper augered in. On another note, were the pay phone records at PDX airport from the afternoon of 11/24/71 analyzed?

REPLY: GORT. KLATU BARADA NIKTU ? it goes both ways, doesn't it? "you are" "no, you are" "no you are" (edit) alternate theory attached http://www.fbi.gov/hq/lab/fsc/backissu/april2006/research/2006_04_research01.htm

http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/magazine/16-07/pb_theory "All models are wrong, but some are useful." So proclaimed statistician George Box 30 years ago, and he was right. But what choice did we have? Only models, from cosmological equations to theories of human behavior, seemed to be able to consistently, if imperfectly, explain the world around us. Until now. Today companies like Google, which have grown up in an era of massively abundant data, don't have to settle for wrong models. Indeed, they don't have to settle for models at all. Sixty years ago, digital computers made information readable. Twenty years ago, the Internet made it reachable. Ten years ago, the first search engine crawlers made it a single database. Now Google and like-minded companies are sifting through the most measured age in history, treating this massive corpus as a laboratory of the human condition. They are the children of the Petabyte Age. ... This is a world where massive amounts of data and applied mathematics replace every other tool that might be brought to bear. Out with every theory of human behavior, from linguistics to sociology. Forget taxonomy, ontology, and psychology. Who knows why people do what they do? The point is they do it, and we can track and measure it with unprecedented fidelity. With enough data, the numbers speak for themselves. ... There is now a better way. Petabytes allow us to say: "Correlation is enough." We can stop looking for models. We can analyze the data without hypotheses about what it might show. We can throw the numbers into the biggest computing clusters the world has ever seen and let statistical algorithms find patterns where science cannot. The best practical example of this is the shotgun gene sequencing by J. Craig Venter. Enabled by high-speed sequencers and supercomputers that statistically analyze the data they produce, Venter went from sequencing individual organisms to sequencing entire ecosystems. In 2003, he started sequencing much of the ocean, retracing the voyage of Captain Cook. And in 2005 he started sequencing the air. In the process, he discovered thousands of previously unknown species of bacteria and other life-forms. ... Learning to use a "computer" of this scale may be challenging. But the opportunity is great: The new availability of huge amounts of data, along with the statistical tools to crunch these numbers, offers a whole new way of understanding the world. Correlation supersedes causation, and science can advance even without coherent models, unified theories, or really any mechanistic explanation at all. There's no reason to cling to our old ways. It's time to ask: What can science learn from Google?

What has any of this to do with DB Cooper? It brings up one thought. Theory: Cooper didn't own or shoot a gun. If he did, I would think he would have brought it and displayed it on the hijack? Just my bias when thinking of personalities/behaviors. People can chime in with thoughts.

I had made reference to the US 1970 census data. The 136 page document is available online. http://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/documents/1970-02.pdf there are 9 sections, you can change the -2 at the end to 1-9, or look here and select them...you only need the -2 though, I think...there is a 67M 1970.zip there that has it all, if you're obsessive. http://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/documents/ Here's the breakdown by age groups in WA in 1970. It's a reasonable guess that half of the number are male. (OR numbers are about 2/3 of these but similar) one could estimate that there were about 100k males in the 45-50 age group in WA in 1970. Washington 100,000's (page 25) 280 under 5 years 608 5-13 years 271 14-17 years 192 18-20 years 232 21-24 years 432 25-34 years 374 35-44 years 393 45-54 years 305 55-64 years 191 65-74 years 131 75 and over I'm just reporting how the data is broken out here, kind of a sign of the times that they broke out black and everyone else? wash, excluding black (page 28) 1,655,910 male 1,681,951 female only about 70.5k black in WA in 1970 98.5 males per 100 females total 3,409,000

okay, okay, you got me. Here's a picture of the home digs. We call it "The Salt Pit", affectionately. Ckret should have stopped by when he swung round Iraq.

[world airway history in the interesting period, plus Ed Daly anecdotal email at bottom...age, gambling, 727 knowledge, it all adds up. If he was a skydiver, he'd probably have done some mass murder too!] World received a contract to carry military personnel and equipment on trans-continental routes. A succession of contracts and new aircraft followed quickly thereafter. World expanded from a pair of DC-4s at the beginning of 1960 to a fleet of eight DC-6A's, four Lockheed Super Constellations and three Lockheed 1649A Starliners by the summer of 1962. Daly decided to take World public - selling 19.5 percent of his stock in an initial public offering that raised $22.9 million. By the late 60s, World had a fleet of six newly acquired Boeing 727-100s, five 707-373Cs, and had broken ground on the $11 million Air Center and International Headquarters at Oakland International Airport. On June 30, 1966, Ed Daly reserved delivery positions for three Boeing model 2707 supersonic jetliners. More so than any other airline, World played a major role in the United States' involvement in the Vietnam conflict. During most of the war, World - along with most other airlines, provided airlift for military personnel and materiel across the Pacific. But in July 1968, World started Rest and Rehabilitation (R and R) flights for battle weary troops from Vietnam to Japan and Australia. In addition, World was responsible for delivery of Stars and Stripes, the military newspaper, to Vietnam from Japan where it was printed. In December 1970, in association with the United Service Organization (U.S.O.), World offered a "Homecoming Fare" to servicemen and women in Vietnam and other Pacific bases. For $350, military personnel got a round trip flight from Saigon to Oakland. The service ended in December 1971. an email posted on the web: Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 To: Subject: World Airways - Last Flight from Da Nang Steve, I knew all those guys. My only “combat” experience with Ed Daly was in 1979 when we were on strike and he came to the picket line with a revolver. He was waving it all over the place. I was about 3 feet from him and turned to go get my picket sign when I heard the damn thing go off. I dived into the iceberg plants and then heard the bastard laughing. He fired off a couple more rounds then left. He used to come out and arm wrestle us on the picket line. He was very strong. He was known to show up to union negotiations with a gun, slap it on the desk and say, “OK you sons of bitches let’s talk!” Our union was the Teamsters and he even scared them. I’ve got a lot of Daly stories some funny but most were sad. He was a mega drunk and won World in a poker game. While that flight was going on I was flying Rescue HC-130s for the USAF. BTW, We had to watch that video during new hire indoc and some recurrents until Daly died. He was an SOB but definitely a real man. Loved to fist fight to settle problems.

You probably mean "Airport 1975" when they lower him into a hole in the 747? That was flight 409, not 305. (edit) image of the scene attached

post 1087 of the old thread. From skyjack71. Before I arrived here. I just found it and smiled at the coincidence. "Before we hit I-5 he pointed down a road and told me about a tavern at Dollars Corner and that he knew a man there. I went to Dollar Corner in 2001 and asked a lot of questions. One man (named Snow) pulled me aside and gave me the directions and the a man I was to find. He claimed to have remembered the man in the picture I showed and that he used to get up and sing with the band...and that this other man was a hermit type but that he knew him....the crew and I never found the man and they had a schedule. I also did not have time to go back on my own with the ladies (one was an undercover Narco off-duty doing this as a favor)."

Some people recommend screws over nails, but hardened screws are not as yielding (long term) as common nails. I use polyurethane glue first. Quite messy. Get it on your hands and the only way to get it off (if it dries) is abrasion. Get it in your hair, and well, you wait. Actually I'm a bit of a wuss. Mostly use a palm nailer, except the brad nailer for molding. The real problem with sistering up against old wood is that the old wood has shrunk, so it's dimensions are less than the new wood. Worth the extra money to buy kiln-dried 2x10's (which are smaller). But actually not common, mostly green wood sold nowadays. A sledge hammer is your friend when sistering joists. That and some screw jacks and nice wood clamps. There you go. Now we all can go and do honest labor.

"The available evidence suggests that the correlations between physical characteristics and personality traits are nearly always too small to be trusted for the needs of individual prediction." Possibily one could imagine this was key to Cooper's "not getting caught"...i.e. stereotypes. Stick with that thought, but you won't. uh....let's see, damned if I do, damned I don't. I've been dying to work in the phrase "Hobson's Choice"...I'm not sure it's exactly right, but it'll do. Just figure out the course Hobson would take if he wanted to keep Scylla and Charybdis equidistant. It's all about flight paths, as you and Sluggo well know. We all need a really funny Cooper t shirt or bumper sticker. Any ideas for text? 377 "The hydrology was provided by Charybdis" ? wait, that's not funny, that's a real theory.

Just ignored or bulldozed over for more condos. Nobody wants to "work"any more in America. Everything is free, which means nothing is free! (Not even air) I had a dream one morning that we were looking for Cooper on Easter Island and still couldnt find him. Turned out - - - he had left with Sluggo and Ckret five weeks earlier, on an iceberg, due to secret information about tides from - - - Snowmman. not true. For instance, while ckret may have real guns, I own 4 nailguns. Before I starting looking at this cooper thing, I was sistering 2x10's in a crawlspace. Now that really sucks in comparison.

"The available evidence suggests that the correlations between physical characteristics and personality traits are nearly always too small to be trusted for the needs of individual prediction." Possibily one could imagine this was key to Cooper's "not getting caught"...i.e. stereotypes. Stick with that thought, but you won't. uh....let's see, damned if I do, damned I don't. I've been dying to work in the phrase "Hobson's Choice"...I'm not sure it's exactly right, but it'll do.

That is universal law. In real estate you take the highest most popular selling price and the lowest most popular selling price the mediam priced home is calculated that way. NOTE: I did not say the highest and lowest price- it is qualified by number of homes sold in each category. Except in science. In science if your knowledge is only a range, then you state the range. If you state an average, you're assuming even probability across the range, and also you lose the min/max info on the range. So there's loss of information. If you're arguing that the FBI investigators are not scientific, but more like real estate agents, okay. I have no data on that.

"The available evidence suggests that the correlations between physical characteristics and personality traits are nearly always too small to be trusted for the needs of individual prediction." Possibily one could imagine this was key to Cooper's "not getting caught"...i.e. stereotypes.

Actually, I am the Google. I have to answer a couple billion other queries in between this stuff ;) (edit) I believe the most important clue is he first asked for door open/stairs deployed in air. Then changed it to door open/stairs down. You saw that in the latest transcript (it's at Sluggo's site, from ckret), right 377?