snowmman

Ckret is the best at making these hidden jokes. I think this might be the first time he referenced Cooper possibly making a "logical" decision. Good one!

Didn't some of the moon rocks actually get into private hands? article here http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C00E3DC103FF936A1575AC0A96F958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all 32 were authorized into private hands by Congress http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/09/26/moon.rocks/ Imagine if you could convince someone you somehow got a rock NASA secretly retrieved from Mars but didn't want to inform the US because there was water and microbes detected on it. Basically you see my point. Human imagination is boundless. Trying to pretend you can predict it is silly and a waste of time.

377: you're not clever enough. The thing to fake was the sawed off machine gun that Cooper obviously had in the paper bag. :) Once you start going down all the "fake" scenarios, there is no limit to the imagination. There's not enough data to prove any "fake" is untrue. It's funny you focus on bills or chute. What about Cooper's long underwear? (supposedly) or the girlfriend he had on the side? or the needle he used for that last good rush?

Interesting. Actually, the worse the bag tie-on, the better Cooper's survivability. i.e. no whapping him upside the head. Best for Cooper to loose the bag immediately.

Maybe I'm just all caught up in this red state/blue state way of thinking, but I hate the way Sluggo's most excellent recent Analysis jpgs end with a blue tick. It seems we really want to end with a red tick. Is there data to end with a red tick? It doesn't matter how far you have to go for a red tick. Just need to end with it. (assuming the reliability of single red ticks are not in question...otherwise might want more than one red tick after Portland) Sluggo?

in response to Ckret's post: I was watching Cops one night and listening to the "Bad Boys, Bad Boys" song, and thinking about Ckret and this forum, and all my MP3's lovingly acquired over 9 years, including everything Lou Reed has ever done. And I went and deleted/destroyed them all. Damn, and you say I'm not doing my part here!

(this is just speculation, but I thought it's interesting and maybe someone has more thoughts) I was fascinated with the recently released high resolution flight path map. Especially with the location labelled First Plot. Up near SEA. I was surprised to see that the first radar tic might not have been at SEA, but a little bit out...i.e. we don't have tics for the whole flight path? We know USAF radar was used to produce the '72 map. Possibly it was used for the radar tics for the '71 map. We've always speculated that maybe Mt. Hebo, OR was the, or one of, the radar sites the USAF may have used, because it was tied into SAGE. (reference previous stuff I've posted) (edit) We like the SAGE idea, because two F106s were sent up for intercept from the 318th Fighter Interceptor Squadron at McChord. They were Delta Darts and they supposedly were fully armed. It would be interesting to mull over whether there was any possible shoot-down scenarios discussed that night. The anecdotal info from a SAGE scope op confirmed that they would be sent in two's as standard intercept procedure. Mt. Hebo, OR no longer has the radar site, but it is cleared, has a road, and you can find and see it in Google Earth if you type it in the name. I was curious about the distance from Mt. Hebo to the first radar tics on the '71 map we now have. I had always been stressed about the distance of the plane from various radar installations, knowing that distance, low altitude, irregular terrain, and rain, combine to reduce radar accuracy. (Thinking of '71 technology) 150 miles from a single radar site seems to have been the limit for radius, assuming the radar was pointing inward. Some? SAGE sites were perimeter only, since they were supposed to be looking for Russian bombers. Speculation, since USAF had other radar. The distance from Mt. Hebo,OR to the "First Plot" point seems to be about 119 miles. So that's interesting, it's within the 150 mile radius. Could be why we don't have ticks all the way to SEA? I attached some old photos of Mt. Hebo I took when I used to spy for the Russkies...(KIDDING! but the photos are real)

okay, if we just run with that, then you're asking us to find a jump point that has the money bag coming off and landing in the Columbia, or some bit of land that might get flooded or a stream...I'm thinking stream is unlikely because of small size...probability/likelihood of any particular money landing site is probably correlated to it's area..stream area is small..columbia is big...banks of columbia are big. And this landing site for the money has to be within 1/2 mile of the flight path, probably less, depending on how you vector the money relative to the plane's path. And this jump point has to be before the Columbia. So given this difficult set of conditions, you think it's somehow obsessive to focus on the data requirement that's forcing us to have a jump point before the Columbia. Now I'm scratching my head because I feel this vibe of how "hey we don't need to be so analytical" when all the requirements for the equation seem to demand a lot of precision on everything we talk about. In fact, the lack of precision, the willingness or desire to grab at an answer that might be "close enough", I think is what has always doomed this investigation. Just because you see a possible grab handle doesn't mean it's the right one.

________________________________________ His original request was for BELOW 10,000 ft. What's your reaction to that? cloud cover was 100% at SEA right? I don't know the altitude, maybe same as down by Portland? was it 5000 ft? sluggo should have mentioned the cloud cover height when introducing a skydiver expertise question, no? Have people out there jumped thru clouds? how does that affect your decision making? Assume you wouldn't know whether clouds would be broken as you approach your DZ.

Why did the crew "feel" that way? There's nothing in the air for them to feel...So guessing: Based on a time perception from some last landmark? Based on getting some radio traffic from PDX tower? Did they see the Columbia thru 60% cloud cover? I'm not asking you to do any more work...but somehow you're remembering some detail. Did they just say that exact quote "I felt like we were still North of the Columbia" and there was no followup in the interview? I'm actually wondering what you're remembering when you say they "felt" ...or is that Ckret felt? it's unclear.

So do you guys still get fascinated when you find leg irons without legs in them? Actually yes. What did they look like? home made? were the bends sharp or curved? Were the corners filed after the metal was cut? How were the holes made? clean? did it look like a drill press was used? Surface rust? Iron, mild steel, stainless?

[There's an intriguing story I thought I read from back then about a kid thinking they found a body?, but when they went back with the sheriff, there was no body. I can't find that story anymore and not sure if I imagined it. Be interesting if Ckret had any false reports of body found that week around the Columbia] Okay, time to get serious again, as we wait for new numbers from Sluggo. Here's the problem. If we come up with a scenario "close" to what we're currently discussing, that explains the money, then a no-pull body should have impacted not too far off? Unless, it would travel farther along the flight line and maybe end up in the center of the Columbia? That article about the possible suicide jumper/body found, is kind of why I always figured a no-pull into the Columbia would result in a body found (I'm thinking the body would not have exploded into parts at terminal if it hit the water).....the body might go a long ways before it snagged up or was detected though. Fewer people in WA/OR back then. So maybe back then it was possible to lose a body in the river, easier? That recent body/floater hit an island way past the Lewis. It's really far to the ocean. It's hard to believe a body would just go all the way out and not be found. I guess eventually sink/eaten/decompose. I was thinking at one time of a body impacting into mud and disappearing (Sauvie Island) but that seems unlikely now. There are some places around the Columbia that seem soft, at the current flight path, so maybe something there. I was also mulling over displacement theories connected to the 205 bridge/highway construction. but that's a little upstream of the flight path crossing. Groundbreaking for that bridge was August, 1977 which is really interestingly close to the years we like for the bag. But I think construction workers would have noticed something. SO: I can't help but think the data is not going to point to bones, but to "Cooper landed okay" But then I can't believe someone in full canopy over Vancouver would have gone unnoticed at 8:15 that night. He'd have to land and packup the chute? Wouldn't take it with him...Quick burial? But then it would be found eventually? It's heavy enough population there. So is it going to be a no-pull into the Columbia for Cooper and his body just not found? Hmm...not sure where this is going to lead us.

Sluggo you are really funny! I've incorporated the secret technology you just passed in that .wav into the top secret drone based on vacuum tubes I'm developing here at Paradise Ranch...we won't need the prime numbers any more!

oh master I am putting the tubes back in the Whirlwind lovingly crafted from thrown out parts I found in my journeys to SAGE centers. it will LIVE again! She breaches! I really like the idea of fine tuning the estimation algorithm to include acceleration/deceleration prediction. Not sure if we can. But just brainstorming: It's would seem to me that you would want to incorporate information from behind and ahead, to figure out where you currently are? See we're looking at a full history. It's not like we're flying the plane and can only look at what we just did. We can take a single point and look at the past and future, and predict the most accurate present. We're omniscient? I'm not sure on the details, but it just feels like the best fine tuning would be not talking about error margins with the data on the current algorithm, but whether an algorithm could be created that folds in external info not currently used: like 727 acceleration/deceleration capability in the Cooper configuration at the fuel consumption rates we know. See what i mean: it's about using existing info to the max, but also wondering if external data not currently being used, can be added to the recipe. Think about the simple little thing I tried to do to refine the wind rose prediction, using knowledge of the measured wind speed. Another way to look at it: shuffle the times, than compute whether the known information contradicts or allows it..i.e. working the data from behind. Accept the data, and work the algorithm. Why does make sense? BECAUSE THE FRIGGING PREDICTION ALGORITHM DOESN"T MAKE SENSE? so don't be a slave to it...figure out a set of data that works given what we know and the capabilities of the plane and it's probable actions at the time (probable: result of transcripts/interviews/etc) I'm just thinking out loud here...

uh... yes this is how it's done, isn't it? When it doesn't fit any other way, it suggests some data is bad. You then look for bad data. If you find it and confirm it's bad, you throw it away. I could ask you the question Jo: why do you think any of the previous data was correct? or more correct? We have more information now than we ever had. You can look at all the information over the last 36 years, and say: which data is more likely correct? I pick: right now.

no money could explain not getting caught. Would have been easier to get caught if you had the money. As long as you don't try again, you're home free. Maybe realize it was a stupid idea, if you survive. The money would actually be a problem. People would notice the effect, unless you threw it away.

f*ing brilliant sluggo. my random swag needed 2 minutes. You got a minute back, right? cause 20:04 is missing ...well you've highlighted it in red, so I'm assuming you're saying LOOK HERE Nixon taught us everything we needed. His gap was 18 minutes. This one is 1?

I've had lots of theories, yes. I checked with Ckret on something I read in a news article but there was nothing to it. Ckret confirmed.

*** The red pins have times written next to them and the blue ones are just tic-marks with no times. So for the blue ones the time was based on the average length between the red ones and hence marked EST for ESTIMATED.*** ok, I'm thinking about error accumulation. The longer the run length of blue pins, the more your error increases because you're using an old estimate. You need a red pin every once in a while to resync you. We can estimate the possible error accumulation by understanding how much the plane could accelerate or decelerate thru the blue only area, The constant spacing is assuming no change in speed? Basically we need to end with a red pin, to have any chance of accuracy. And the blue estimates should include data from a forward red pin, not just backward red pins, to be as good an estimate as possible? It sounds like maybe the estimating algorithm is just broken when the plane is changing speed? I'm flailing again.

I'm totally confused. The only thing that comes to mind is the scene out of Silence of the Lambs. Ckret lets me borrow it sometimes The thing is that Lecter said everything we need to catch him is in these pages. Dr Lecter said a lot of things. He's here, Ardelia. Is this Lecter's handwriting? "Clarice, doesn't this random scattering of sites seem desperately random, Like the elaboration of a bad liar? Hannibal Lecter." Desperately random? What does he mean? Not random at all, maybe. Like there's some pattern here. But there is no pattern or the computers would have nailed it. - They were even found in random order. - Random because of the one girl. - The one he weighted down. - Fredrica Bimmel. From Belvedere, Ohio.

okay, then someone stole all the flight speed info from 20:12 to 20:18 why wouldn't it be on the flight recorder?

someone stole all the red tics from 20:12 to 20:18? there are none? (edit) so the critical flight path area was all estimated? whereas the other areas were more precisely measured?

Random guess, using what Quade said, with jump point being right near the Columbia so money bag with 2500 ft or so of travel along the flight path ends in the Columbia (or on its shore) at the flight path crossing river point. I don't know what to use for canopy drift. I put ~3 mi here but probably wrong? requires about 7 miles of extra plane travel past 2015 on the flight path..which would be at least 2 more minutes?

Hi quade. Thanks for real numbers. Yeah, I just offhand said "zero" cause I just didn't know...wasn't thinking. I was thinking kind of "well it's not going to get to Vancouver Lake like one theory might want"...and I shortened that thought to "zero drift" your number sounds good. Are you using that term to mean no drift in the river or no drift in the air? Assume the uppers were averaging about 20 mph and the bag falls at 90mph (not quite as fast a a normal human in freefall, but still pretty fast). Obviously these numbers are just for the purposes of illustration. 90 mph = 132 feet per second 20 mph = 29.333... feet per second Assume an exit and loss of the bag at 10,000 ft. That's 75 seconds in the air for 2200 feet worth of drift in the air. The bag would absolutely not have fallen straight down from the airplane or when it separated from Cooper unless it did so on the ground itself.

Sluggo has mentioned that he didn't think 205 was there in 1971 The 205 bridge was apparently just completed in 1982 picture from here attached (long description there) (edit) from the curve of the bridge and the islands underneath, and comparison to current Google Earth. I think this photo is looking at the Vancouver side, so gives us a feel for what it looked like in 1982? https://www.columbian.com/history/transportation/205bridge.cfm