brenthutch
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Everything posted by brenthutch
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Really, we are resorting to name calling? That is OK, you are on the right (or should I say left) side of the moderators. I just find it telling that many of the prescriptions the warmists were advocating, (high population density, public transportation, reusable grocery bags, ride sharing of bikes and cars) are now killing people. Folks are trapped like rats in a cage. My brother-in-law has a business in the Outer Banks, he says the bridges are now closed to prevent COVID19 from getting in, yet New Yorkers of means, desperate to escape NYC, are actually trying to smuggle themselves in via boat, and by hiding in delivery trucks, desperately trying to make it to their summer residences. You guys make fun of us, but I would rather depend on my own skills, preparation and knowledge then to place my life in the hands of Bill de Blasio.
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You are right, sorry, I thought you meant that we would be in recession by Q2. Because of COVID19 looks like you will be right.
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Are you saying that the economy was contracting prior to March? https://www.amtec.us.com/blog/february-2020-economic-report Hardly looks like we were in the middle of a slowdown.
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Ring the bell, class is in session! "In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock). This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, a pandemic, or the bursting of an economic bubble. In the United States, it is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales" In the United Kingdom, it is defined as a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters" So you see, whichever metric you choose, you loose. Class dismissed
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Given that the definition of Recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, and you said "I am predicting that the start of a recession will occur prior to Q2 2020" you are already wrong.
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Given that the definition of Recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, and you said "I am predicting that the start of a recession will occur prior to Q2 2020" you are already wrong.
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??????
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Can you link to where you said second quarter? My prediction was that Tesla would go bankrupt in five years (now three years). Tesla's horrible Q1 results were from a drop in demand caused by the reduction of subsidies (just like I predicted)
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In this new COVID19 world, high density living, public transportation, bike sharing and reusable grocery bags make less sense now than they ever did.
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My thoughts are with you and your son, take care, be safe and attend to the important things.
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I own high end rentals in college towns and lease them to professors, I am no longer in the market.
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I agree 100%. Some banks would go under, others would survive, investors would have been hit hard but those are the breaks. I think it is appalling that the profits are privatized and the losses are socialized, when it comes to large companies. The car companies and the banks were not going to disappear, they would have been dissolved/bought/sold/reorganized and harsh lessons would have been learned. Same thing with the oil companies. Those rigs are not going to go anywhere, that centuries worth of oil and gas is still in the ground, there is still a demand for it and SOMBODY, will fulfill it. If you had told be back in the '90s that there would no longer be a Merril Lynch, I would have said you are bonkers, yet here we are and Merril is an obscure wealth management subsidiary of BofA, life goes on. We should let the market decide winners and loosers, not the government.
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When one gets more than they give, it becomes socialism.
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No, if the domestic oil industry can not compete with the low price of Saudi and Russian oil, they will (and should) go bankrupt. Investors and banks will take a haircut, their assets will be sold at a discount. Others will take up the mantle and the whole process will start again. (its called capitalism) The winners will be the consumer who will reap the rich rewards of cheap, reliable and plentiful energy. The market is a harsh mistress.
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No it was just because bronze became more usefull, and did more with less. As soon as rainbows and unicorn farts (solar, wind and by extension, EVs) can do more with less, the sun will set on the era of fossil fuels, until then...well you know.
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To give some more perspective, Tesla had <90K in total sales while Ford sold 500,000 F-150s (just one vehicle), yet the Muskovites went nuts and drove the stock price up. Obviously Tesla's valuation is based on much more than car sales.
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I thought you said by the second month. As far as your prediction, I don't recall you mentioning a pandemic as being the cause. You said it was the record high stock market, the record low unemployment, inverse yield curve and hundreds of thousands of new jobs that would plunge us into recession. No mention of COVID19. But I am sure if I point out Telsa's horrible Q1 results you will be blaming a virus.
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As your favorite US president likes to say "we'll see"
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/oil-pauses-near-25-after-trump-output-deal-causes-record-surge Do you guys ever get tired of being wrong?
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Hi Jerry, It is not as stupid as it might first appear. It is not a bust on Tesla or its technology, it is just an observation on the (still) astronomical valuation of Tesla. At that price point, Tesla cannot just be a car company. It requires Tesla to be much more than that. A tech company.
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I believe I said something like, "the REAL existential threat of COVID19 has brought into sharp relief the fallacy of the IMIGINARY threat of climate change" And I never said COVID-19 was imaginary.
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OK, I want to buy an EV that meets my needs, what one should it be? I have a wife (who needs a roaming office when we travel) two kids and an 80lb yellow lab that needs his crate. We need to have room for skies, snowboards and extra passengers. We also need a range of at least 400 miles (in cold weather) with the ability to fill up anywhere in less than five minutes. What do I buy?
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I hope that for you, and all others on this forum (at a minimum). But the fact remains that the REAL existential threat of COVID19 has brought into sharp relief the fallacy of the IMIGINARY threat of climate change. It has given the world a taste of what a no-growth, deindustrialized economy looks like and nobody likes it, and nobody will tolerate it.
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It will be so slow that it will not happen!!! We will ALL go to our graves with no GND. ROTFLMAO
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I will have to remember that. From your article; "the fossil fuel industry will bounce back as it always has, and bargain basement oil prices will slow the much-needed transition to green energy." AKA, RIP GND.
