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Everything posted by Chaucer
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The FBI was so honed in to the skydiving community and the community itself then was so tight knit, that I doubt "one of their own" would be able to pull it off and either A. not be found out or B. not eventually spilling the beans.
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B. A requires me to be under threat of death. C requires others to be under threat of death.
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"Good bye to people I've trusted I've got to go out and make my own way I might get rich, you know, I might get busted..."
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Sounds like you didn't enjoy the episode. Sorry about that. Cheers!
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So, Cooper didn't sing the blues?
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Right. And has been pointed out, the age of the program is essentially meaningless considering its necessity. Also, word use is meaningless in this regard as well. That's not how stylometry works. It's not just about WHAT words are used, but HOW. It's phrasing, construction, and convention. It's linguistic style. The more I look into this, the more I'm convinced the original conclusion was right.
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It's important to point out that Barb was not pulled out of a hat. There was a suspicion that she was Clara. No one was claiming Sheridan Petersen was Clara or William Reca. I encourage more analysis into this, but I believe it will not yield a different result than the original.
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The question really isn't "Is Barb Dayton DB Cooper?" I think we can all agree that is very highly unlikely. Rather, the question at hand is "Did Barb Dayton write the Clara letters to Max Gunther?" That is a much more likely possibility based on Marty Andrade's analysis. However, that analysis - and even Marty would agree - should not be taken at face value. More investigation and analysis needs to be done to really put this to bed, but initially the results seem very encouraging.
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??? You talk about the need for a different program besides Signature. I AGREE with you and share some for you and others to use. Then you take some kind of passive aggressive dig at me? Why? Haven't we moved on from the days when the Vortex was nothing but agendas and vendettas and petty jabs? You see, This is the problem. In your post, you made good points. There ARE questions about sample size. There IS a question about the reliability of older programs vs. new ones. There IS a need for peer review. Then you go and make it personal and undermine your own argument talking about some ridiculous "Cabal" and taking shots at me for something that I said weeks ago - things that are true by the way. Look, none of this is personal. Critiquing WJS is not a personal attack on you. Questioning Gunther is not some kind of conspiracy to ruin you. Discussing the idea that Barb was Clara is not some kind of personal affront directed at you. Suggesting such makes you look like a hypocrite who can dish it out but can't take it. You want to be able to "call people out" and "speak the truth", but when people disagree with then it's some conspiracy to discredit your work on WJS? C'mon...not every discussion is an argument. Not every debate is a fight. Worse, making this personal clouds your understanding of who is an ally and who isn't. My post was intended to HELP you and create space for further investigation into this, and somehow you thought I was piling on and attacked me for it. When you see enemies behind every tree, the forest becomes a dark, lonely, scary place.
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Here is a list of free downloadable stylometry programs in case you wish to run the analysis again with a different one: https://guides.temple.edu/stylometryfordh/programs
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Other than the obvious huge news from this episode (I won't spoil it for those who have not heard it), the other "holy shit" moment was realizing that Jo Weber knew about Dr. Roman and the double homicide long before it recently came out in the Vault. It is absolutely remarkable how much knowledge - even minute, seemingly innocuous details - she possessed long before the files began to be released. She had to have had access to them from some agent or former agent. Eng? Himmelsbach? The Vortex swirls...
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OK, let's pump the brakes here. This is how misinformation enters the Vortex and takes on a life of its own. The origin of the "facial tic" notion was CONJECTURE by "Prospector" on the DB Cooper Forum several years ago. It is pure speculation on that person's part and is not based on any actual evidence. That doesn't mean it's not a valuable discussion, but to be clear, it is derived entirely by a supposition by someone, not any actual evidence.
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I think this is the origin of the tic notion.
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These two cases are very tangentially rated to Cooper. First, a young woman who went missing in 1969 has been identified using investigative genetic genealogy. This is the same technique that would need to be used to give Cooper a name. Moreover, her remains were found on Sauvie Island just a few miles north of Tena Bar: https://people.com/human-remains-identified-as-portland-teen-who-went-missing-in-1970-8599722 Second, the story of a young girl who went missing from Vancouver, WA just two weeks after the DB Cooper hijacking. Her clothing and other belongings were later found near Battle Ground, WA. She is believed to be a victim of serial killer Warren Forrest. Coincidentally, a body was found at the Cedar Creek Grist Mill which is just south of Lake Merwin in spring of 1972. At, the time it was thought that the remains could be that of DB Cooper. That body was later identified at Barbara Ann Derry, who was also a victim of Warren Forrest. https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/cold-case-spotlight/sister-still-hoping-answers-jamie-grissim-s-disappearance-n691386# The Vortex swirls...
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Do you mean the protruding lower lip that the eyewitnesses kept mentioning? I know Rose drew attention to that in the video interview his grandson did a few years ago.
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Agree completely. There's no harm in testing these things. Could you be a huge nothingburger? Sure. Won't know until we try.
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Probably right. However, shroud lines in a reserve chute are not frequently handled. They are usually packed and forgotten. I doubt the FBI handled the shroud lines as much as the tie. So, perhaps we might only find Cooper's and Cossey's.
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I don't think we can know the answer that question until it's tested. It's a long shot for sure.
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I guess I'm thinking more immediately. It is certainly possible that technology will advance enough to distinguish multiple SNP profiles in order to do FGG. However, any material used by Tom and Eric would be destroyed and unavailable for further analysis. So, I'm not dismissing their efforts, just pointing out that as of right now, it will not give us DB Cooper's identity.
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Great question, and I don't think anyone has an answer. Still, rootless hairs can now be used for mitochondrial DNA. In speaking with a geneticist, they said the hairs are the best option - of course that's the one that we don't even know where they are or even if they still exist...
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So, this might be out of place considering the recent discussions, but in speaking with experts on the topics, it would seem that Tom and Eric's approach to the DNA - which is Ancestry DNA - will not result in a last name for Cooper. Rather, the hope is to catch all the DNA profiles found in Tom's MVAC and see if there are "clusters" of similar DNA which might result in a "Cooper profile". The problem with that approach is that you cannot use forensic genetic genealogy. Forensic genetic genealogy which entered the mainstream with the arrest of the Golden State Killer and has gone on to be used to solve dozens, if not hundreds, of cold cases, needs no more than TWO genetic profiles. It is impossible to proceed with genetic genealogy with three or more profiles. With Tom and Eric's effort, the best you can do is hope to isolate Cooper's profile and then test other samples against it to confirm or eliminate suspects. For us to give a name to Cooper using DNA, we must test material that gives us two or fewer profiles. The tie, obviously, is not that artifact. Perhaps, the best hope to identifying Cooper is testing material which we KNOW was touched only by Cooper or is only from Cooper. I can think of only two: the shroud lines from the cut-up chute and the missing hair slide.
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Damn, this place cleans up nice. That rotten stench is gone. Guess I'll hand around a bit.
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User account name: georger