nerdgirl

I concur with the you regarding the threat of radical Islamists, particularly to liberal democracy, as the OP noted. And as I’ve described before, they “hate” me (educated, independent, feisty female) more than you. Unless the US decides to use nuclear bombs to devastate the entire Islamic world (from Morocco to Malaysia) transferring a neo-Cold War/Fulda Gap mindset is a deleterious proposition. There’s a binary, light-switch-like mindset in which some view the world as either you’re (1) a wussy liberal appeasing foreign dictators or (2) pushing military invasion. That’s the mind-set that needs challenging in order to have a “clear winner.” The US excels at hard power (from tanks to planes to ships to electronic warfare); somewhere over the last 20 years, we’ve lost our soft power advantage. America’s public diplomacy faces “a fundamental problem of credibility.” *Both* soft and hard power are important! We used to have both. Soft power was crucial in winning the Cold War and defeating the single most strategically threatening and heinous regime of the 20th Century; no military invasion necessary. As some PhD historian said in Kansas last fall: “Public relations was invented in the United States, yet we are miserable at communicating to the rest of the world what we are about as a society and a culture, about freedom and democracy, about our policies and our goals. It is just plain embarrassing that al Qaeda is better at communicating its message on the Internet than America.” In that talk, that PhD historian critically highlighted the funding disparity between State and DoD, an ironic and bold statement that has been noted by more than just me. Some guy from across the pond with a lot of ‘fruit salad’ has expressed this more fully and strategically (because ‘strategic communications,’ about which my favorite PhD historian spoke, is tactics/means): “The new paradigm is war amongst the people [in the US, more commonly known as ‘asymmetric warfare’ – nerdgirl] where the strategic objective is to win hearts and minds, and the battle is for the people’s will, rather than the destruction of an opponent’s forces. “The essential difference is that military force is no longer used to decide the matter … The strategic objective being to alter the opponent’s intentions rather than to destroy him.” It’s not about changing attitudes of ‘terrorists’/coddling insurgents/‘hating America’/historical revisionism/whatever – it’s recognition that the civilian population provides tacit or direct support of the ‘terrorists’, insurgents, and/or radical Islamists and why & how important that is: those are the men (mostly) that in some combination we will have to convince, cajole, capture, or kill (… and compromise with …) if we are to have a clear winner. Shutting down access to money laundering and bank accounts alone is not the solution either – most radical Islamist activities are funded at low levels. We can blow things up like no one else can. Really cool innovative technology for blowing things up is not a problem, but can we re-build them? And rebuild them so that when we leave they don’t crumble/disintegrate completely? The latter is not something for which the majority of US military has been traditionally trained. US foreign policy cannot be treated as a light-switch in which anything other than full-on military intervention is derided, disparaged, or ridiculed. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

From the inorganic molecules present on the early Earth: photocatalytical reactions in a reducing atmosphere. More here (including ref to a Machester chemist) on pre-biotic synthesis of RNA &/or DNA. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

No, it's not a common name. As I understand it was reference to Alaska's Bristol Bay, which features some magnificant natural scenery, e.g., 1, 2, & 3 in addition to being significant for fishing. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

They won't because the USG is much better prepared. Lessons Learned have been applied. As always don’t trust me, listen to individuals from US National Guard, US NORTHCOM, Army Corps of Engineers, HHS, DOE, Red Cross, & FEMA: briefing from Friday, hosted by DoD. Note how much they emphasize they change in preparedness and execution versus 2005. Keesler AFB was also decimated by Hurricane Katrina, something one hears about a lot less. From Air Force News, "Hurricane Katrina smashed 'a good 95 percent' of Keesler Air Force Base, Miss., turning it into a pile of debris and mud, said a base spokesperson." A friend of mine (Lt Col) gives a talk he titled “Hurricane Katrina: An Unintended Transfer to the Navy.” The National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) was alerted last week. (Any medical-related folks looking for paid volunteer opportunities, NDMS is recruiting and you’re indemnified as part-time USG/DHS employee.) VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

So your walk stuck to the nicer neighborhoods. Still no. You’re now 0/3 on assumptions or 0/4(?). --- - --- - --- I’ll let you be the expert on identification of covert crack houses, condos, or other private residences of illicit drug activity; that skill set, I’m not unhappy to concede, is outside my expertise. Notation of absence of plywood on doors and windows requires no specific training, and absence of boards on windows and doors eliminates “boarded-up crack houses” by simple logic. Your comment is, nonetheless, an excellent illustration that the incidence of drug activity and distribution cuts across demographics and geography. To further that & return to the thread topic, by comparison, meth labs are more likely to be found in small towns and rural areas according to the US DOJ. The Council of State Governments Report on Drug Abuse in America – Rural Meth (chaired by the Governor of Alaska) also documents the higher prevalence for meth use in “non metro” areas: “… rural and small-town youth were more likely than urban juveniles to become substance abusers and that an eighth grader in a rural town is more likely to use illicit drugs than an urban eighth grader. More specifically, when compared to urban eight graders, rural eighth graders are 104 percent more likely to use amphetamines in general. They are 59 percent more likely than their counterparts in large cities and 64 percent more likely than eighth graders in small metropolitan areas to use methamphetamine specifically.” Is there a valid correlation (setting aside causation) between meth labs and drug use in rural areas and the predominant politics of those areas? (Probably not.) Both are indicative of illegal behavior. Not of any political leaning. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I like Governor Palin a lot. And not for snarky reasons either. She took on what she saw as ethical lapses within her own party and the AK “old boys” network. Sounds like she offended a lot of people … may be difficult to disentangle how much due to her choices and how much due to her being a strong woman in power. She does seem to live her politics. Don't get me wrong, have substantial disagreements with many of her policies, particularly the social policies. Governor Palin may not be as traditional Republican in some other ways than have been described: From the Seattle Times: “Over the opposition of oil companies, Republican Gov. Sarah Palin and Alaska’s Legislature last year approved a major increase in taxes on the oil industry -- a step that has generated stunning new wealth for the state as oil prices soared.” In August 2006, Palin passed legislature imposing a tax of 22.5% to oil companies in Alaska. In October 2007, she increased the tax to 25%. “‘By receiving an equitable share for our resources, we are now in a position to demand more accountability and seize opportunities to save for future generations,’ [then-Governor] Palin said in a statement released last December as she signed the next tax bill into law.” NB: that’s the same windfall tax proposal that Sen McCain criticized Sen Obama for proposing. More notable: Governor Palin “raised taxes on oil profits by $1.5 billion a year and rejected industry ownership of a $25 billion pipeline,” i.e., she transferred ownership from private entity to the State. Compare that to what was mentioned by Rep Maxine Waters said during Congressional hearing that garnered much vitriol – very similar. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur strongly. While I have no doubt that there exist among the 90M or so Republicans (or conservatives) in the US a few who do espouse Nazi ideas/neo-Aryan/anti-government ideas, the overwhelmingly vast majority don't. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Adam Smith's work is liberal economic theory. I don't dispute that, I said that liberal economic theory does not equate to liberal political theory. What do you think liberal political theory is? Thus far most (all?) of the criticism in this thread have re-stated a single, innacurate highly partisan aphorism. Conservative political theory does not equate to liberal economic theory. Both political theories are subsets of the liberal economic theory. In the 1980s, economic policy wonks of the conservative political movement adapted/adopted neo-liberalism. That's what I said... Then why did you disagree with me? That's what liberal policies espouse. Late 20th/early 21st Century conservative policies want less or none. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

How's it looking to you? How many boarded up crack houses did you pass? I'm sure your "walk" had something to do wth MLK. Nope, had nothing to do with MLK. Zero boarded up crack houses. Lived in South Central Los Angeles during the 1992 riots. When I Washington DC I frequently stay in northeast quad, near North Capitol NE. You don't live there now though do you. Why is that? Job. Don't live in the suburbs, rural area, Outer Mongolia, or Oslo either. During a depression? Hardly a suitable comparison. I disagree. It is *the* single most apt comparision. I would argue that it's the lack of cognizance of history -- our own history -- that underlies much of the argument against the New Deal programs. In order to have cogniznance of what the situation is like in states lacking the institutions and infrastructure of the US and western world. That's what it looks like. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What do you think is the prevailing economic theory? Since the day of Adam Smith, liberal economic theories have prevailed in the capitalistic world. Liberal economic theories do not equate to liberal political/socialist ideals. Socialist does not equal liberal. That is just as in err as saying conservative equals fascist. Neither is correct and it limits useful dialogue. Adam Smith's work is liberal economic theory. Before Smith, the predominant belief was that without poverty people would not want to work and that everyone would be lazy and pursue leisure (as did many aristocrats who owned virtually all of the property -- because remember before liberalism the concept of private property was extremely limited). The predominant view among English conservatives at Smith's time was that the poor were poor because God meant them to be so. It's also connected to Protestant work ethic, i.e., God looked with favor upon people of wealth and success in business. Otoh, Smith, asserted that more wealth to common people would benefit the nation's economy and society as a whole - the invisable hand. He proposed market economics as the economic policy to accomplish that. Smith proposed *limited* intervention not *no* intervention. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

War in Iraq Global Reliance on Oil WMD Proliferation Do you fear the poliferation for concern that they will actually be used, or just that it limits the leverage of threatened US force? Yes ... and more. While historically nations that acquire nuclear weapons do not go to war with each other, that's not a historical trend on which I want to base US foreign policy. Making a choice to pursue an offensive nuclear weapons program has a de-stabilizing effect. Proliferation. E.g., if Iran succeeds at producing nuclear weapons, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey are likely to make decisions to pursue offensive nuclear weapons programs. Parts of the Egyptian government have already mimiced/co-opted Ali Bhutto's "eat grass" apothegm. Also increases risk of transfer to sub-state or non-state actors. Whether direct, indirect, or tacit, more nuclear weapons states increases that risk. In 1950s & 1960s there were no credible terrorist groups seeking nuclear weapons. Now there are. WMD is also not just shiny-metal-death; it's bugs & gas too. One question among policy wonks today is 'why hasn't al Qa'eda used a WMD'? Well, by formal definitions (i.e., USGs multiple ones, agency-dependent), they have or more precisely, an affiliate in Iraq has. Btw Oct06 & Jun07, there were at least 15 incidents in which chlorine was coupled with IEDs or VBIEDs. It emerged as a “signature tactic” for insurgents in AQ-linked groups in Al Anbar province. Most civilian fatalities were due to conventional explosives. Over 300 US service members affected, including 65 US service members during 3 Jun 07 attack in Diyala; no US deaths. Beyond the concussive and blast injuries, it was successful in terrorizing civilians and complicating military operations. I am just as concerned about large state proliferation as "annoying states" doing low-tech or 1950s-esque US & USSR (1980s Iraq) offensive BW & CW programs or radical Islamists making incremental changes to incorporate chemical or simple agents in dispersive devices, e.g., the Mubtakar. As well as our home grown extremists, e.g., William Krar (anti-government, white supremists, right-wing extremist) now serving time on a number of charges who had in his Tyler Texas self-storage locker the makings (in various state of assembly) multiple portable improvised cyanide generating devices. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

One example. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

For me, that was the most interesting part. I hadn't thought about that correlation: long term effect of deleterious conditions on POW health and life expectancy. I can build plausible explanations to support as well as to counter. Would like to see some data supporting the assertion. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Please explain how liberalism is responsible for the increase in GDP that has been the root cause of all the great improvements in this country. That statement has multiple assumptions that are not proven … & may not be valid. Is rise in GDP the root cause of all great improvements in this country? Or is the rise in GDP a result of choices and structures that have been made by the US? The stronger case is for the vector of causality to be for the latter. (E.g., what is the correlation btw investment in science & engineering and resulting new technology and increases in GDP? see Vannevar Bush’s now-famous ‘Science: The Endless Frontier.”) But the question of “does a decrease in poverty correlate with a rise in GDP” is underlying your response (or at least I’m going to pull that question out). Fundamentally, how does GDP grow? (1) Have more people working and (2) have people work more efficiently. When large percentages (really large, e.g., >50%) of people are in poverty or dependent on subsistence income, one doesn’t get a rise in GDP. To the contrary, high poverty rates generally combined with other elements can push a GDP to be negative or even a state to brink of failure, e.g., Economists have long known and have empirical evidence that reducing rampant poverty correlates with increase in GDP. That’s the underlying principal of Pres Bush’s Millennium Challenge Corporation. The policy issue is how does one induce reduction in poverty: possible policy options range from kill/poison/eat/deport the poor (overall poverty is reduced but it’s probably not viable as a blatant policy) through efforts to stimulate economic growth (which has commensurate “hows? – education, trickle down economics, rise minimum raise, increase or decrease taxes on certain groups, targeted investment, etc) to (limited to massive) redistribution of wealth to income caps. You may also want to compare US GDP from any year in the 1800s to any year after 1938 to see the positive impact. The larger question for the 21st Century US, im-ever-ho, is what percentage of the population can the US afford to not have contributing and still economically grow? What do you think is the prevailing economic theory? Since the day of Adam Smith, liberal economic theories have prevailed in the capitalistic world. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That's akin to saying that the basic premise of conservatism is to line the pockets of big business through fraud and to start wars to which other people's children are sent to fight and die as canon fodder. Neither description is accurate. No balls. Ovaries, perhaps. Did a 4 mile walk through inner city Atlanta this morning. Lived in South Central Los Angeles during the 1992 riots. When I Washington DC I frequently stay in northeast quad, near North Capitol NE. There are parts of Tokyo & Moscow in which I hesitate to walk alone. I've also been to urban and rural areas of India, Nepal, and Mexico and seen the poverty there. When one compares the US to those areas or to much of sub-Saharan Africa, the US has done very well over the last 75 years since Pres Roosevelt introduced the New Deal. And frankly, we should. Hold the bar high for ourselves, rather than lower it. My question is how many people (1) have seen rural and urban povery outside of the US and seen the deleterious impact on those nations, I'm confident there are quite a few; how that group intersects/overlaps with the most outspoken critics of western liberalism is unknown) and (2) how many people remember or have any knowledge of history of what the US was like in the 1930s? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes. In addition to pointing out that radical Islamists are the antithesis of liberalism, the track record of liberalism has afforded the world individual rights, rule of law (versus Divine right of Kings), freedom of speech, freedom of reading material, market economics, the concept of private property, child labor laws, decrease in poverty rates (compare poverty rates of the 1800s in the US when estimates range from 50-75%+ of nation living in poverty to the last 50 years when it varies ~8-12%; decrease in poverty correlates with decrease in crime & increase in GDP), veterans benefits (e.g., Roosevelt’s original GI Bill) … & the weekend. Those are all products of liberalism. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I don't recall the specific ratios there, but it won't be quite that large, iirc. The impact of China's sex imbalance is largely speculative at this point. The most common concern is that SRB will lead to increased levels of violence with possible threats to state stability and security. Rise in the sex industry (prostitution) is expected, along with increases in violent coercion and trafficking. Not aware of any speculations of rise in homosexuality. Would not be surprised … just not aware of any. It is important to recognize that the cause of the sex imabalance problem(s) isn’t China’s one-child policy per se: the cause of the problem is the preference for sons & lack of value for daughters. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes, and that one reason why "China is doing it wrong." In 2008 sex imbalance (or sex ratio at birth [SRB]) ranged from 108:100 to 130:100 (the higher numbers in places like Guandong province, SW China). And the imbalance is increasing at a higher rate than expected; initial expectations were that the 120:100 (or 1.20 SRB) would not be reached until 2025. India has an SRB of 1.07. Average "natural" SRB values are typically 1.03-1.04. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

One of the problems with this analogy is that if you asked your son if he needed to go to the doctor or the dentist or brush his teeth or do his homework or any other number of things that as a parent one might think a child needs to do, he is likely to disagree. The analogy breaks down too easily. It's also not a good analogy for arguing for universal healthcare. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur w/r/t the impact -- too often underestimated or ignored or treated as a proverbial third rail, im-ever-ho -- of population growth and commensurate demand for resources. China is doing it wrong, imo. How does one address population growth 'right'? Someone [credit Jeanne, iirc; apologies if not] suggested ending tax incentitives for more than 2 children as one step. That could impact the US. Altho' our population growth is mainly due to immigrants; in some European countries, e.g., Italy, the population trend is negative. Outside of the US, western Europe, Russia, and Japan, there are youth bulges:"Developing countries bear the brunt of rapid population growth, and are currently facing the largest ever youth cohort in history—1.3 billion people between the ages of 12 and 24. ... In countries where youth make up 35 percent of the total adult population, the risk of conflict, with all other factors being equal, increases by 150 percent compared to countries where youth make up only 17 percent of the adult population, as in most developed countries. In 2000, youth made up 35 percent or more of the adult population in 44 countries, including many in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia." One of the So What? Who Cares? factors -- & tieing into our threads on humantarian objectives for military intervention -- the US military & allied militaries are likely to be called or may act on a moral imperative (Wilsonian) to intervene. We've already seen the stand-up of US AFRICOM in Oct07. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) does a great series, also im-ever-ho, on Mapping the Global Future, with some fantastic data & discussions on how demographics impact resource issues and how they impact US national security. There have been 4 iterations released thus far (2010, 2015, 2020, 2025) and the 2030 work is being completed. The hardest part in my experience is getting over the 'tyranny onthe inbox' and past the demands of the immediate budget cycle/news cycle. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Resource Scarcity Global Population Growth Iran Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

War in Iraq Global Reliance on Oil WMD Proliferation Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Aaah. FCS is a specific US Army platform not all future combat systems, although I can see how if one was not familar with DoD MDAPs that could be a confusion. Correct. New weapons platforms, e.g., the RRW. That's a good thing, imo. Concur ... however, FCS is not what you think it is nor is it what Sen Obama has proposed. And the current DoD is already slowing development of FCS. FCS has been highly problematic, has had >$70B in cost overruns (over the original $92B estimate for 1/3 of FCS), and currently OSD & the Army are considering cutting it: "'They are looking to slip it to the right [i.e., move the deliverables further out in time - nerdgirl] or kill it,' said a source familiar with FCS options advanced by the Pentagon's office of program analysis and evaluation [PAIO was started by SecDef McNamara and reports directly to the secDef; they are *very* powerful - nerdgirl]. "Army officials are working to convince Pentagon leaders, including [DepSecDef Gordon] England, to reconsider cutting or even terminating FCS, the service's only major new-start development program. "Army Chief of Staff Gen. Peter Schoomaker is scheduled to meet Friday with England and again make the case for the program, a briefing that is expected to discuss FCS' relevance to today's challenges." That last part is of particular interest to many who are balancing the needs for capabilities against a peer-competitor (e.g., China) versus assymetric or counterinsurgency operations (e.g., Iraq or Afghanistan). VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Do you have a source for that? Sen Obama has asserted he will not support the development of new nuclear weapons platforms (e.g., the RRW). His defense policy, however, includes support for "plans to increase the size of the Army by 65,000 soldiers and the Marines by 27,000 troops" and defense acquisition platform includes increased support for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, electronic warfare capabilities, C-17 cargo, KC-X air refueling aircraft, Marine littoral combat ships, and advanced biological agent countermeasures. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

You're welcome ... I try.