nerdgirl

Hmmm ... I'm curious as to what fundamental X-ray-based technology is planned to differentiate peroxide-containing liquids/gels from other liquids/gels. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Recycling electron almost completely verbatim. The NY Times article cited just doesn’t support the argument. It might suggest something worth investigating: what default rate has been observed in those loans? Are they higher than average? Are they lower than average? Are they more heavily regulated? Or less? How many have been made and what is the average value? $150,000 or $900,000. There’s a lot of speculation but no one seems to be presenting data. The article is about a new program. It doesn’t, however, say anything about default payment rate or securitization of loans hiding the risk or what were the [changing] regulations on that program. It’s not demonstrating correlation unless one wants to find it. Humans have an amazing ability to find patterns. One could also imagine if the level of scrutiny applied to climate change was applied this assertion? One could point to this NY Times article on increase in McMansion’s, this one on accounting mismanagement by executives at an insurance corporation, this one on deregulation and collapse of large energy corporations as indicative of corporate malfeasance, this one from 1995 on derivatives and lack of regulation, this one from 2005 on risks of derivatives still not being adequately addressed, or this one from 1988 on securitization of consumer loans, or this one from this month on why Japan has not been affected by the current global financial downturn: “The Japanese became very cautious after the bitter experience of the cleanup [after their 1990s financial crisis that dragged on for a decade due to inaction]. One result was that they seem to have largely avoided the risky subprime loans that set off the current crisis.” Japan “accept[ed] near zero growth rates in the 1990s and [the lack of borrowing from global markets, high household savings, and presence of self-regulation on the type of risky securitization and economic schemes of the rest of the world] permits the survival of Japanese corporate practices like valuing employees and clients over shareholders.” The point is all, any, or none of those may be as relevant as or more relevant than the 1999 article. Using a well-constructed search phrase and the archives of the NY Times, I could construct a case that either global climate change (speculation on impact on natural resources and access) or missile defense (>$100B in last 10 years) is causal. Those are not likely to be accurate either … but if one appeals to what the reader wants to see, it’s likely to make its way around the blog-o-sphere. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

You're stuck with it regardless of whether the Democrats or Republicans win. Defense spending and the Wall Street bailout are both huge Socialist programs. Bush 43's discretionary non-defense spending increases eclipsed Carter and Clinton's. True ... and at the same time I'd disagree on a strict definitional basis. One could argue that defense spending (will limit my response to that area since it's easier & it's the one to which I can speak write more authoritatively) does concentrate capital into the 'hands' of a few 'elite' companies (Lockheed, NG, GD, etc); small business -- however important for those businesses -- are

Wed observed that my standard Delta ATL-DCA-ATL flight has increased from $199 (all taxes/fees) mid-Sept to $309 (inclusive). /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

You don't have any money. Nor any resources to speak off. Respectfully disagree. What brought many foreigners to the US is still our greatest export – the graduates of the the US higher education system. We also still are the leading S&T innovator … those technological capabilities enabled military superiority in the Cold War and against any peer competitor. Other states, especially China & India, seek to emulate that innovative capacity. While many here criticize and belittle them, in the 21st Century those two resources (higher education, particularly science & engineering) and S&T innovation are invaluable. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Doesn't seeing this kind of thing, and the lunacy of it, just sour you on the whole "restrict-the-weapons, not-the-dangerous-people" mentality? I mean, who can get behind knife laws, gun laws... when they see this being the result of that kind of mentality?? I’ve been long ‘soured’ on abrogation of personal privacy and rights … & efforts to deny basic autonomy of personhood. You may have missed this post … And this one on the positive connection between civil rights and private gun ownership. One doesn’t have to go to the UK to find restrictions on such objects. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

… or any other autonomous rights. From the BBC: Top Afghan Policewoman Shot Dead “Lt-Col Malalai Kakar, head of Kandahar's department of crimes against women, was shot in her car as she was about to leave for work. Her son was also wounded in the attack, and is said to be seriously injured. “Taleban rebels, who banned women from joining the police when they were in power, said they had carried out the shooting. “‘We killed Malalai Kakar,’ a Taleban spokesman told AFP news agency. ‘She was our target, and we successfully eliminated our target.’ “The BBC's Martin Patience in Kabul says Ms Kakar was one of only a few hundred female police officers in Afghanistan and that she had previously received death threats. “Ms Kakar, who was reported to be in her early 40s and had six children, was one of the most high-profile women in the country. She has figured prominently in the national and international media, partly due to a famous episode in which she killed three would-be assassins in a shoot-out - although she said her everyday life involved tackling theft, fights and murders. “Ms Kakar joined Kandahar's police force in 1982, after her father and brothers were also police officers. But when the hard-line Taleban regime took over Afghanistan she was prevented from working.” UK's The Independent followed today, “Women Who Took on the Taliban – and Lost” “Of five prominent women interviewed three years ago by The Independent for an article on post-Taliban female emancipation, three, including Ms Kakar, are dead and a fourth has had to flee after narrowly escaping assassination in an ambush in which her husband was killed. “Religious fundamentalists [radical Islamists – nerdgirl] are waging a ruthless campaign to eliminate women who have taken up high-profile jobs. Parliamentarians, schoolteachers, civil servants, security officials and women journalists ["high profile" = teacher? - nerdgirl] have been selected for attacks by the jihadists. Countless others have been maimed and murdered in villages where the vengeful Taliban have returned to impose the old order. “In the case of Malalai Kakar, the most prominent policewoman in Afghanistan, an additional ‘crime’ which sealed her fate was that she was a determined and effective campaigner for women's rights. Commander Kakar, 40, knew her work made her a Taliban target. She led a unit of 10 policewomen specialising in domestic violence cases. She was uncompromising with suspected abusers, men who in the past had relied on male police officers to turn a blind eye.” Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Interesting read - thanks! VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Los Angeles has ordinances restricting length (

Interesting read overall. Thanks. This caught my attention: Concur with underlying idea suggested by the quoted anonymous author: the economic crisis is global and systemic. As that bard of transparent financial verse noted last March: regulation will never keep up with innovation and new methods of hiding and manipulation in financial schemes: "risk models and econometric models – as complex as they have become, are still too simple to capture the full array of governing variables that drive global economic reality." Add globalization and interconnected/interdependent international markets into the mix and the situations becomes even more complicated. The words also suggest a challenge to some of the causal explanations put forth regarding the US financial turmoil: anyone want to posit that Putin has implemented or allowed a program of affordable housing for poor people? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Pity that theory has been totally discredited by the facts of this crisis. So you're saying that the NYT lied? No, that's not what was asserted. The NY Times article cited is not the 'slam dunk' causal factor as Gladnick's Op-Ed claims. It does suggest something worth investigating, however …what default rate has been observed in those loans? Are they higher than average? Are they lower than average? Are they more heavily regulated? Or less? How many have been made and what is the average value? $150,000 or $900,000? (The overall system can withstand more $150k defaults than $900k defaults.) Are they 0.5% of the overall market or 10%? The article is about implementation of a new program. It doesn’t, however, say anything about default payment rate or any of those other questions I posed above that would be required to show causality. It also doesn't mention anything about securitization of loans hiding the risk or what were the [changing ?] regulations on that program. It’s not demonstrating correlation or causality unless one wants to find it. Humans do have an amazing ability to find patterns. Similarly one could point to this NY Times article on increase in 'McMansion’s', this one on accounting mismanagement by executives at an insurance corporation, this one on deregulation and collapse of large energy corporations as indicative of corporate malfeasance, this one from 1995 on derivatives and lack of regulation, this one from 2005 on risks of derivatives still not being adequately addressed, or this one from 1988 on securitization of consumer loans, or this one from this month on why Japan has not been as affected by the current global financial downturn: “The Japanese became very cautious after the bitter experience of the cleanup [after their 1990s financial crisis that dragged on for a decade due to inaction]. One result was that they seem to have largely avoided the risky subprime loans that set off the current crisis.” Japan “accept[ed] near zero growth rates in the 1990s and [the lack of borrowing from global markets, high household savings, and presence of self-regulation on the type of risky securitization and economic schemes of the rest of the world] permits the survival of Japanese corporate practices like valuing employees and clients over shareholders.” The point is all, any, or none of those may be as relevant as or more relevant as causal factors than the 1999 article. Using a well-constructed search phrase and the archives of the NY Times, a skilled rhetoritician could construct a case that either global climate change (speculation on impact on natural resources and access) or missile defense (>$100B in last 10 years) is causal. Those are not likely to be accurate either … but if one appeals to what the reader wants to see, it’s likely to make its way around the blog-o-sphere. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur ... again ... this is getting to be a repeated habit. One can cite greed, partisanship, and stupidity as factors ... but aren't those semi-constants as well? Certainly weren't innovations of the last 25 years, eh? And good greed drives capitalism to new innovation. The problem is how good greed (entrepeneurial capitalism) is encouraged/fostered versus how bad greed is minimized. As the melamine poisonings of over 50,000 infants in Asia vividly illustrates, regulation without enforcement is not effective whether it be the US financial system or Chinese dairy system. [Edit to add: also a vivid example of where Austrian School economic theory fails; it relies too much an underlying assumption that people will *not* behave deleteriously, i.e., not add cheap poison to products.] VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I *wish* I had that kind of debt...... Ah, yes, postgraduate debt. From NLW for 2006: “About 80 percent of law school students obtain loans to pay for law school, and the average loan debt is $76,763 for private law school graduates and $48,910 for public school graduates.” From AMA for 2007: According to the Association of American Medical Colleges, the average debt burden was for medical school students was $139,517. 75.5% owe at least $100,000 and only 12.4% finish medical school with no loans (wonder how many of those were paid for through USG programs?) Additionally, “the average debt of graduating medical students increased in 2007 by 6.9 percent over the previous year.” VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Perhaps not credit cards … & perhaps not ROTC students ... but the data is equivocal. E.g., an August 2006 DoD Report, “Report on Predatory Lending Practices Directed at Members of the Armed Forces and Their Dependents” found that 17% of military service members use payday loans, primarily but not exclusively enlisted E-5 and below. "This report documents the alarming growth of the predatory lending industry, illustrates why members of the Armed Forces are prime victims and makes concrete recommendations on action [regulations] to fix the problem." -from the letter signed by AMD Steve Abbot (USN, ret) included in the report Those findings was part of the underlying argument for legislation {i.e., regulation) capping interest at 36% (as opposed to the 390 to 780% usury annual interest rates that the DoD found) back in 2006 that was included in the 2007 Defense Authorization Act. (Btw: the investiagtion & report was required eh, 'requested' action by Congress from the 2006 Defense Authorization Act.) Anecdotally, I've observed the preponderance of payday lending storefronts that have joined other establishments typically found outside military installations. Less anecdotally and from the DoD report, “Near McChord Air Force Base and Fort Lewis, there are four times as many payday lenders per capita compared to residents living in the rest of Washington State. Within 3 miles of Fort Hood’s perimeter, there are at least 18 payday lenders and 13 of those are within one mile of base.” VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

You've inverted the respective roles - anthropogenic climate change is the Copernican model that overcame old Ptolomeic ideas. Anthropgenic climate change was the new idea to challenge the old ones. Galileo's invention of the telescope (new instrumentation) validated heliocentric solar system model of Copernicus (that actually did have a Greek version by Samos, not unlike the first hypothetical ideas on anthropogenic climate change and 'greenhouse' gases go back to the 1800s). Similarly advances in instrumentation (computers and imaging) have validated climate observations, and like Kepler's new theoretical work explained (using mathematics and physics), new theory in climate change is advancing on those observations. Like the challenges to anthopogenic climate change, most of the challenges to Galileo came from those outside of the science. VR/marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Unquestionably yes. He can show the journals in which they were published and the protocol of the journals. And one could track back to editors and recover reviews, altho' the latter might require legal intervention and cause. He can also show how many other papers have cited his (Scientific Citations). VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Indeed I do, my wife is Japanese and have a fair understanding. The result of that action put Japan into a 10 year+ recession. Just now, the Japanese banks are looking to invest off-shore again. Uh ... Japanese failure to do anything. Not action. It was the *lack* of action that led to the recession. E.g., Japan's Financial Crisis: Institutional Rigidity and Reluctant Change "From 1985 to 1990, Japan experienced an asset bubble of unprecedented proportions. The Nikkei Stock Index surged in these five years from below 7,000 to over 39,000, while the price of other assets--and real estate, in particular--multiplied many times over. During this period, the central bank maintained an extremely loose monetary policy, holding interest rates at postwar lows. Japanese banks engaged in a lending frenzy and, in doing so, helped to fuel the surge in asset prices. They extended many loans for purposes of investment in the stock or real estate markets. They extended many more for the buildup of industrial capacity on a scale that could only be fully utilized if bubble-period consumption trends persisted. "From 1990, this bubble began to burst--first with a plunge in the Nikkei Stock Index, followed in early 1992 by a tumble in land prices. Both developments had a severe impact on the ability of corporate and individual borrowers to repay loans. The bursting of the bubble thus left banks throughout Japan--both large and small--in financial distress, burdened with massive amounts of bad debt. This bad debt, in turn, weakened bank capital ratios, sharply raising their likelihood of collapse and severely impairing the capacity of banks to extend credit to new borrowers. (e.g., what was seen in the US paper market on Monday ... that affects small businesses who need short term loans). "History is replete with financial crises, however.2 In recent decades, many countries have experienced distress in their banking sectors, in particular. Since the 1980s, crisis has struck several major Latin American and African countries, Russia, and numerous countries in East Asia. Even advanced industrial nations with highly advanced financial systems and seemingly strong banking regulators such as the United States and the Scandinavian countries have experienced severe crises. So, why a book about Japan's financial crisis? At least two features of the Japanese case stand out as distinctive; both are intimately related and pose important substantive and theoretical puzzles. "The first feature is the extraordinary delay by Japanese government officials before intervening to aggressively address the bad debt problem in the nation's banking system. The resolution of banking crises typically requires the use of public funds to recapitalize banks, augment the depositor safety net, and establish a temporary agency to take control of failed banks and dispose of their assets. Since an injection of public funds is always politically unpopular, governments often delay before mustering the political will to allocate taxpayer money to this end. Nonetheless, mechanisms seem to exist in other countries to spur a more prompt response to financial crisis than that seen in Japan. "According to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) study, those countries that made the greatest progress in the wake of financial crisis took a little less than ten months on average before embarking on systemic bank restructuring while those countries making the slowest progress took, on average, approximately four years. "In Japan, eight years passed from the onset of severe financial distress before the government initiated aggressive measures to tackle the bad debt problem and institute fundamental financial system reforms. As a result of this delay, what might have been relatively small costs of clean up in economic terms turned into staggering costs. By the time of this action, the amount of bad debt held by Japanese banks was estimated to total 1 trillion dollars or approximately 30 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Clearly Japan's extraordinary delay places the country well outside even the upper bounds of normalcy." It was *inaction* on the part of the Japanese Diet that led to 10+year recession. The case of Japan supports intervention, whether you or I like it, of the USG. It also suggests that it should be careful policy not rushed. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

You disagree with the data? Hopefully, the USG is avoiding that with action. Do you remember what happened to the Japanese markets in the 1990s? And what their response was? It's not a strawman that you're trying to make ... the data is equivocal. It's not making the case you're trying to make. And the data may support a counter-hypothesis, that the actions of USG (as opposed to the inaction of the Japanese Diet) are stabilizing the market so that the indicators are unclear -- some are up, some are down. What you're asserting supports the pyschological effect of the proposed bail-out, i.e., the actions are stabilizing the market. In some ways it's not unlike the claimants that assert 'we aren't seeing people die from a crisis of polio or measles today in the US, therefore we don't need vaccines anymore.' (Nevermind that the first 6 months of 2008 saw 130 cases of measles, above the 10-y US average of ~60 case per year; those 130 cases were largely in unvaccinated children.) Have you explored *any* counter-explanations? Or are you fitting data to the case you want? Illustratively, copper [& nickel too] prices are soaring ... and for reasons largely unrelated to the financial turmoil. If you don't examine counter-explanations and if you apply sleection bias to your data, you may miss the underlying reasons. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

You actually have a very valid point (altho' I'm not sure it correlates well with the topic of home loans) - increasing college student debt. A typical college student has ~$2700 in credit card debt. The debt burden on college grads from student loans is increasing significantly. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), part of the Dept of Ed, found that ~50% of recent college graduate have student loans, with an average student loan debt of $21,000 (2007). That's a doubling of average loan debt in less than 8 years. Some are much higher & obviously, some are much lower. The highest average loan burden is Washington, D.C., which has an average student debt burden of $27,757. In a survey of loan recipients from New Hampshire, 82% indicated that without student loans, attending college would not have been possible. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Putting aside for a moment the question of anyone's intellectual brilliance or management skills (remember former LANL director Pete Nanos?), I'm more curious w/r/t your opinion on policy toward new nuclear weapons development, as opposed to control on the current ones. Recognize that the two are not completely severable ... but who should drive policy on new nuclear weapons? Defense strategy or DOE laboratories? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Widely reported and not just on Fox News. I already posted one article from Newsweek. Do a little research to find your answer, or is your question a slippery way of trying to debunk my original post? Chris - Would you present some more data on that. I've asked that question before. There were a few districts (e.g., some districts in the Georgia Democratic primary) that got a lot of attention. The majority of districts and states in which there were not pronounced disparities didn't receive any attention, i.e., it wasn't seen as newsworthy ... a la "white Republicans vote overwhelmingly for white candidates" or "peace, again, at US-Canada border." It's not newsworthy. It's been noted previously that in January it was found "In a national survey by CNN/Opinion Research Corp., 59 percent of black Democrats backed Obama, an Illinois Democrat, for their party's presidential nomination, with 31 percent supporting Clinton, the senator from New York." 59% or just over half. One might conclude that when an instance when 70-80% of some definable electrorate goes to Sen Obama occurs you hear about it. When it doesn't, you don't, e.g, "The 28 point lead for Obama is a major reversal from October, when Clinton held a 24 point lead among black Democrats." So at one point more black Democrats supported Sen Clinton -- by 24 percentage points. As Sen Obama's popularity has risen among Democrats, so has his support among black Democrats. Another example of what one doesn't hear about on the blog-o-sphere punditry and another counter-example: in the Democratic Senate candidate run-off in Georgia, Jim Martin (a white man) beat Vernon Jones (a black man). This was the same Democratic electorate that when they voted 66% for Sen Obama versus 31% for Sen Clinton was presented as an example of 'black voters voting for blacks." If the latter assertion was true, one would have expected Jones (the black Democratic candidate) to win the primary run-off, but he didn't. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur that is an interesting read on simple gun-type munitions. Remember when it was originally published.

My apologies, I thought it was clear. Always good to have a check on one's assumptions. I appreciate the request for clarification. The assertions suggested in the original post to which I responded were (1) not supported by the data, (therefore plenty of counter-data provided) and not well-specified (time of change), and (2) the correlations & causations suggested don’t hold (therefore multiple counter-explanations provided). Even if Friday’s data did support the asserted trend (which is doesn’t wholly when more data is introduced), selectively picking one day and ignoring the rest of the week or longer term trends in attempting to explain economic behavior is a less than robust methodology. It may, however, inspire further inquiry ... or generate questions. It was also, like your request for more information, (3) an inquiry as to who or on what basis the things that were asserted as phenomena which we “should be” observing were based, i.e., is it historical precedent (when? where?), is it an economic model (whose?) or is it notional speculation? Do you have answers to (3)? Or counter-explanations? VR/Marg [edit] p.s. to paraphrase [airdvr], the point is it's worth investigating the rest of the story. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

(1) “Should be” according to whom? (2) Oil prices fell $2.07/barrel on Friday due to concerns and uncertainties that the proposed bailout would not be sufficient to restore demand according to most analysts … Otoh, oil prices rose more on Thursday: +$2.29/barrel. Monday saw “Oil makes biggest single-day price jump ever” when prices spiked by $25.45/barrel at noon, finally closely (only) up $16.37/barrel. Other explanations offered for Monday’s surge in price of oil: “A massive jump in the price of oil this week has raised new concerns about the role of speculators and possible market manipulation, but traders say the historic surge had more to do with ‘stupidity’ or poor risk management.” Perhaps more importantly w/r/t oil prices, demand in the US is down more than 5% from a year ago and “[o]il prices have dropped sharply from record-high levels above 147 dollars in July on worries that demand will shrink in the faltering global economy.” The settling of the price of oil at the end of the week seems to more be an indicator than the proposed bailout is having a stabilizing influence. The rise in gold commodity prices is somewhat in line with the proposed assertion that “Commodities should be going through the roof” - prices for “gold shot above $920 an ounce Friday before closing up below those highs.” On Friday, the US Mint suspended the sale of 24-karat gold coins “because it can't keep up with soaring demand as investors seek the safety of gold amid economic turbulence.” Sale was temporarily halted in August too. “… silver contracts rallied even higher than gold on Friday, closing up 23 cents an ounce at $13.50.” From where did you get the data and interpretation that you suggest? For rises to be meaningful, one needs to know over the time period of change. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur. De-creating a new organization or budget line item is even more difficult than creating one. An exit plan or roadmap should be part of the legislation, imo. Yes. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying