nerdgirl

While it might not be true for all/most, best blind date thus far has been first winter ascent of a Colorado 14-er, i.e., one of the 52 peaks with summits over 14,000ft. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Through a sub-state actor: AQ Khan. Brief synopsis: Khan is a metallurgist or materials scientist (not a nuclear physicist or engineer) who spent a great deal of time in the 1970s making friends and business contacts with legitimate researchers and businesses in Europe. Leveraging those connections, he established a transnational clandestine network relying on front-companies to bring together the knowledge, materials, and infrastructure to build the capacity for Pakistan to enrich uranium. Enriching uranium is hard (technically challnging); the design of a uranium-based weapon is comparatively easy. It's (roughly) the inverse for plutonium. (And this is why folks are concerned with Iran & its centrifuges.) He became the "father" of Pakistan's nuclear bomb. Whether or not and the extent to which the Pakistani government, the Pakistani Army, &/or the ISI (Pakistani intelligence service) knew about Khan's activities is still debated. The Pakistani government denies knowing about it ... yet he used government planes to move large equipment. I'm not confident to assert that the Pakistani government gave Khan explicit instructions or permission. I see little evidence to suggest that there was not tacit approval. He also was willing to work with, buy from, sell to other states (DPRK, Libya, Iran). What AQ Khan illustrates is the ability of a well-connected individual to exploit the benefits of globalization for purposes that many consider detrimental to international security. Altho' many/most Pakistanis regard him as a national hero. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The fissile cores and the non-nuclear components of the weapons, as well as ballistic missiles, are reportedly stored separately. The main reason Pakistan did that was not to secure against theft by insurgent Taliban (or others) but as an insurance that a deterrent or response capability would remain if India tried to take out Pakistan's nuclear weapons capabilities. That policy was instituted in response to a specific external, state-based threat. The threat has changed. Is that still the best policy? Are multiple stores of fissile material the best policy for securing that material from a domestic insurgency? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The best western estimates are that the (Pakistani) Army has control (of the nuclear weapons). Yeah... I was trying to make sense of this article before I wrote my post but then decided calling it "somewhat strange" would have to do. Dr. George Perkovich is arguably the leading expert on Pakistan's nuclear weapons, outside of the USG. Inside the USG, the leading expert is arguably Dr. Peter Lavoy, on leave from the Naval Postgraduate School as acting chair of the National Intelligence Council (NIC). Not unsurprisingly, can't find any recent statements attributed to him ... anything the DNI releases is likely to have Lavoy's metaphorical fingerprints all over it. Perkovich was is quoted in an article released today on control of the nuclear weapons and the Pakistani Taliban: “‘I would say that I thought [the threat] was exaggerated -- that there were 10 or 12 other [threats] in Pakistan that were more probable and were also very grave – [but] it’s gotten much worse in the last few years, and you have a sense of parts of Pakistan now becoming ungovernable by the Pakistani state,’ Perkovich says. ‘Today I'm feeling like we really, really have to focus on the nuclear danger in a way that I wouldn't have said was the case until recently. It's not an exaggeration to say that there is a risk.’ “Most experts say they have no doubt that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is now under tight control by Pakistan's Strategic Plan Division -- the security structure headed by 58-year-old General Khalid Kidwai and intended to keep the weapons from falling into the hands of Islamic militants, Al-Qaeda scientists, or Indian saboteurs. “Perkovich says current safeguards should ensure that any possible collapse of the civilian government in Islamabad would not affect the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons -- at least, he says, as long as General Kidwai remains in control. “‘The civil government is not relevant to the control of nuclear weapons in Pakistan; it is entirely an army issue,’ Perkovich says. “We do have a strong sense that [Pakistan’s nuclear weapons] are controlled by elements in the army that have been selected and are reliable. As long as that control by this current military leadership remains strong, then I think one can have pretty good confidence that these weapons won't be used crazily.’ “But Perkovich says his concern centers around what could happen if pro-Islamist elements within Pakistan's military and security forces turned against Kidwai. (Estimates of radical Islamists infiltration of military varies. I’ve heard as high as 75% but that’s usually as the ‘ground soldier’ level rather than general officer. Most estimates I hear still consider the Pakistani General Officer corps to be highly dependable, westernized, non-Islamic fundamentalists. One has to dive deep into the structure to really appreciate how those positions are tightly controlled and class-dependent, including by familial relations and history as factors – nerdgirl.) “‘The risk on the nuclear side is that the country falls apart or has a civil war that the bad guys win,’ Perkovich says. ‘The fear comes if there is a coup within the military so that, somehow, the people now in charge within the military get dispossessed of their nuclear weapons by other people in the military who would be less responsible.’ [I.e., Kilcullen’s 75% failed state prognostication if current policies do not change – nerdgirl.] “To that ‘first fear,’ however, Perkovich adds another alarming scenario: ‘The second fear is [if] there is basically just a takeover by the Taliban and somehow the military crumbles and flees.’ So there is legitimate reason for concern, i.e., worst case scenarios are not close to zero probability. And at the same time, the worst case scenario probablitly, while still very low, is increasing. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Rep Bartlett (MD) asked LTG David Barno, USA (ret), who former commander of US forces in Afghanistan; former LTC David Kilcullen, PhD, Australian Army, who is an expert in counterinsurgency theory, doctrine, and operations and worked closely w/GEN Petraeus on his application of COIN strategy, which is better known as “the Surge” in the US; and Mr. Shuja Nawaz, Director of South Asia Center, the Atlantic Council (I’d never heard of him before, he’s apparently the South Asia expert) to each “prognosticate” on the probability of the 3 potential outcomes for Pakistan (that LTG Barno suggested in his opening statement): (1) failed state, (2) stalemate/status quo, or (3) gradual improvement. The 3 provided their prognostications:

I'm not sure how you define "righties;" there have, however, been a number of individual conservatives and conservative-identified organizations who have opposed torture, including waterboarding and other euphemisms for torture. E.g., 5 Reasons Torture Is Always Wrong: And why there should be no exceptions Stand Up and Be Counted The Conservative Case Against Torture Torture and moral bankruptcy More on Torture On Bush's torture policies Opposition to torture has long been a uniting, non-partisan issue across America. It's been one of the many things that makes America great! It's been a key part of President Reagan’s invocation John Winthrop’s vision for America to be that “shining city on a hill.” /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Marc, perhaps I've missed it, which is entirely possible. Would you point me to a specific post, url or #, where any evidence that torture has been effective has been presented? Thank you. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks for passing that along. Altho' I've mentioned the specific case before (actually a few times), it's probably worth re-iterating: torture produces bad intelligence. Policy makers make decisions (like to go to war) based on intelligence. Bad intelligence makes the process of making good policy decisions more difficult. "The key example is Ibn Shaykh al-Libi, a Libyan al-Qaeda trainer captured in Pakistan in 2002. He denied knowing of any links between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda, but, under torture, 'remembered' that Iraq had trained Islamic terrorists in the use of weapons of mass destruction. His evidence formed the centrepiece of George W. Bush's pre-invasion speech: 'We've learnt that Iraq has trained al-Qaeda members in bomb-making and poisons and gases.' Al-Libi's 'confession' was entirely false, but by the time the CIA retracted the claim, the war was under way. It's not notional or hypothetical: torture produced bad/faulty intel that was passed on to US policymakers. One more reason torture, waterboarding, "enhanced interrogation," and other euphemisms for torture is bad policy. The other reasons include but are not limited to: wasting time & money; increasing risk of reciprocity on US service members and deployed civilians; fueling insurgency; impedance of US foreign policy and national defense goals; morals/ethics, and it doesn't work: "The Allies in the Second World War learnt that lesson early on. While the Gestapo employed verschärfte Vernehmung (“enhanced interrogation techniques”, ) British and American interrogators adopted far more sophisticated methods, using psychological pressure that produced extraordinary results." Sixty years + of experience -- across Democratic and Republican administrations, across multiple organizations, across intelligence, military, and law enforcement -- recognized the ineffectiveness of torture, waterboarding, "enhanced interrogation," and other euphemisms for torture. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I don't know... marching over Islamabad and taking over Pakistan's nuclear arsenal aren't really one in the same event. Picture someone invading Washington successfully and then trying to use the U.S. nuclear arsenal. It's not as easy as it sounds. On top of that, I believe the chain of command from the civilian government down to the "button pressers" in Pakistan is somewhat strange. I doubt TB could order an attack and actually have it happen. (I'm not entirely sure the current government could order an attack and actually have it happen. ) The best western estimates are that the (Pakistani) Army has control (of the nuclear weapons). Regardless, Pakistani Taliban in control is not a positive development. ---- --- -- --- ---- I’m slightly annoyed that I missed David Kilcullen and LTG Barno’s (ret) testimony to the HASC on “Effective Counterinsurgency: The Future of the U.S.-Pakistan Military Partnership.” HASC only does live video/audio casts ... Found the video! Statement from the ranking majority member Statement from ranking minority member And RUMINT (rumor) is that Kilcullen (retired Australian Army officer) used the phrase “and kick your ass” in open session to describe the indirect rulership bargain between the Pakistanis and the tribal leaders. !!! /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes - VX & GB. Have not been in a CS or other riot control agent chamber. Used stannic oxide to test seals on M40. Heard (apocryphal?) stories about Marines at Quantico doing push-ups in CS. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Proverbs 5:18-19 May your fountain be blessed, and may you rejoice in the wife of your youth. A loving doe, a graceful deer — may her breasts satisfy you always, may you ever be captivated by her love. Can we just leave it here and call it the night? Song of Solomon 1:2,4,13 Let him kiss me with the kisses of his mouth: for thy love is better than wine. Draw me, we will run after thee: the king hath brought me into his chambers: we will be glad and rejoice in thee, we will remember thy love more than wine: the upright love thee. A bundle of myrrh is my well-beloved unto me; he shall lie all night betwixt my breasts. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I didn't know that. Thanks for the link. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Let me try an illustrative analogy ... Many members of the military (& a few 'special' civilians) have been trained in live chemical and biological warfare agent environments, does that mean they were victims of chemical weapons? The US military also does live chemical warfare agent training at Ft Leonard Wood; does that mean that we should use chemical warfare agents (nerve agents, blister agents) offensively? (That question may deserve its own thread.) Soldiers, sailors, airman, and Marines are trained in live agent environments to execute defensive countermeasures and to operate in a contaminated environment. It's not training to use CW or BW. I don't feel like I can compare myself to victims of Halabja either. The use of waterboarding in SERE training was based on torture methods used by the Soviets and North Koreans against US service members. The US military uses waterboarding as part of SERE training to resist torture, i.e., tacitly acknowledging it is *torture.* It's training to resist torture. It was not intended as an instructional manual for interrogation. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The techniques of waterboarding and other "enhanced interrogation" methods were found to be ineffective during President Eisenhower’s (Republican from Texas, as you likely know) term. I.e., For those who are looking for a correlation between political party or State of birth and USG torture policies, they don’t correlate. Waterboarding was considered torture and shown to be ineffective under President Eisenhower's adminstration. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That doesn't really seem to be the case. The operatives seem to generally be on the non-effective side of the argument, as has been demonstrated in numerous other threads on the topic. Here is a good thread to read for more in depth info. Be sure to follow the links contained within. NOW HERE is a none political opinion that should be regarded as gospel By the way, what I quote and pasted was as far as anybody should go Really Marc. Really? Did you look through the thread as [jcd11235] suggested? Here's a list of some of the folks and organizations cited in that thread who have asserted the ineffectiveness of torture: The US Army Human Intelligence Collector Operators and US Army Interrogators The active duty and retired Marines who are members of the United States Marine Corps Interrogator Translator Teams Association LTG Harry E. Soyster, USA (ret) and former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), i.e., the Defense Department's lead intelligece agency, & Commanding General of Army Intelligence and Security Command (INSCOM): “If they think these methods ["enhanced interrogation," i.e., torture] work, they're woefully misinformed. Torture is counterproductive on all fronts. It produces bad intelligence. It ruins the subject, makes them useless for further interrogation. And it damages our credibility around the world.” LTC James Corum, USA (ret), who stated “The torture of suspects [at Abu Ghraib] did not lead to any useful intelligence information being extracted." Former CIA Directorate of Operations (DO), not the analysis side, officer Robert Baer: torture is “bad interrogation. I mean you can get anyone to confess to anything if the torture’s bad enough.” Larry Johnson, another former CIA officer – operations not analyst – and former deputy director of counterterrorism at the Department of State “[Jack] Cloonan [32-year FBI veteran, whose experience included counterintelligence, counterterrorism, the Joint Terrorism Task Force] and a New York Police Department detective secured actionable intelligence from a suspect in the foiled millennium-bombing plot in just six hours on December 30, 1999 -- by following FBI procedure, and by encouraging a suspect to pray during his Ramadan fast. The suspect even agreed to place calls to his confederates, which led to their speedy arrests.” Ray McGovern 27-year veteran of the CIA and was responsible for preparing & delivering PDB’s to President Reagan and President HW Bush. David Becker, DIA John Berglund, DHS Brian Boetig, FBI Michael Gelles, NCIS Michael Kremlacek U.S. Army Intelligence Robert McFadden, CIFA (it was DoD agency) C.A. Morgan III, Intelligence Technology Innovation Center (aka ITIC, part of CIA, unless they’re ‘officially’ ODNI now) Kenneth Rollins, Joint Personnel Recovery Agency (another DoD agency) Scott Shumate, CIFA Andre Simons, FBI John Wahlquist, National Defense Intelligence College (part of DIA) There is no comparable list of operators and interrogators supporting use of waterboarding, "enhanced interrogation methods," or other eumphemisms for torture. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I’m going to respond seriously as if you are asking a genuine question, which isn't to imply that it isn't ... but I'm tired & may not be as diplomatic as usual. My apologies, Rule of law. At the core, that’s the answer to your question. We are a nation of laws. We are not anarchy. We are not a despotic dictatorship or regime. We are not the Taliban or al Qa’eda. All the evidence suggests it doesn’t save lives. The evidence suggests that it wastes time, produces bad information (that has to be investigated thereby wasting more time, money, and potentially putting lives at risk). The evidence suggests that there are more effective means that produce good intelligence and that have worked in real-world “ticking time bomb” scenarios to save lives. The evidence suggests that it puts US and allied soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines, and deployed civilians at greater risk (than they already are). If waterboarding saved lives, whether it is wrong or not would be a different question. I believe that. The facts and the evidence support that. I don’t have to invoke an ethical argument – just looking the facts. The evidence – both inductive and deductive from the particular of KSM and the general of 60+ years of torture being ineffective – supports that. Considering all the evidence that has been presented, I ask (more rhetorically) how one can possibly believe that “any good information was obtained from these interrogations that prevented attacks and saved lives”? Not of you [AWL71]. But notionally of the John Yoo’s and Michael Hayden’s of the world. As I’ve stated before I don’t think they’re “idiots” or any other pejorative name one could use. I also see nothing to suggest that that they were acting intentionally maliciously or malevolently. I’m confident that they genuinely believed that *at the time* that they were doing right and acting in the US national interest. I am also quite confident in stating they were wrong. Very wrong. What is the cognitive process that one goes through? How does one justify the situational ethics of *justifiably* decrying torture by terrorists and justifying to one’s own use of torture? It’s *not* like rationalizing cheating on your spouse in which one comes with all sorts of justifications for why “it’s okay, this time … the wife’s a bitch, he’s rich & powerful, she’s a supermodel, he makes me feel ‘loved’ …” By what cognitive process does one push aside all the available historical, legal, strategic, technical, and operational information in favor of an operational tactic? I don't get it. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The argument for waterboarding is that it supposedly gets information that cannot be gotten by other means, right? If you have to waterboard someone 183 times and still don’t have useful information, does that suggest it is an effective technique? One of the arguments is that torture will produce quick results in situations in which lives may be at risk (that’s the ‘ticking time bomb’ scenario). If it’s done 183 times over a month is that ‘ticking time bomb’? If someone brings you a reserve to repack 183 times in a row because he’s had 183 malfunctions in 183 jumps – while that might be a great client from a capitalist perspective – is that indicative of an effective, good packing technique for the main? (Especially if you’ve got 60 years of evidence that says there are better ways of packing that do work and that have worked, even in real ‘ticking time bomb’ situations.) ADM Blair’s statement: is not untrue. I suspect that you’re reading that the “High value information” was a result of waterboarding, etc. That’s not what the memo’s language says. It says the three acknowledged detainees, (Khalid Sheik Muhammad, Abu Zubaydah, and Abd Nashiri) who former DCI Gen Hayden, USAF (ret) acknowledged were waterboarded, etc. also provided high value information. Hayden acknowledged that information was obtained *before* they were waterboarded. The most important, “high value” information and most quickly obtained information from KSM seems to have come from his laptop computer. His laptop. More details in my post from last year. (Please note that those statements are references to Defenselink.mil transcripts and to direct statements from practicing operators.) Now maybe ADM Blair did intend your interpretation. (Or whoever wrote the memo; the likelihood that he *wrote* the memo is close to zero. A member of his staff in all liklihood wrote it, he signed it, and it was sent off to public affairs.) Suspect a more reasonable and more likely explanation is that it was recognized as being unclear when it went through public affairs review. Nothing’s changed to support claims of effectiveness. There's still no evidence of effectiveness. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

It is the Unclassified "Training, Code of Conduct, Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape (SERE) Training" Army Regulation 350–30, which refers to FM 21-76-1. Regardless, that does not obviate any of what I wrote on the intention, history, or mis-use of a training manual for resisting torture by the Soviets and North Koreans as an instructional manual for use by the US. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What may be most indicting is that there may be more truth than metaphor in that. The Fiction Behind Torture Policy: The lawyers designing interrogation techniques cited Jack Bauer more frequently than the Constitution. If people who are as smart as John Yoo (I may disagree vehemently with his legal and ethical thinking; he's not 'dumb,' however) can be influenced by fictional television, what does that say for the rest of us? No one wants to think that they're influenced by television -- we all want to think that we're independent skeptical thinkers. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Very seriously: what kind of information or evidence would it take for you to not consider torture, including water-boarding, to be a policy of the US Government? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The SERE training methods were largely derived from tactics used or believed used by North Koreans and Soviets. The training manual was intended as training doctrine to enable US soldiers, airman, sailors, and Marines to develop skills to resist torture by our enemies ... it was *not* intended as an instruction manual for what we should do. I guess some of the chickenhawks who never served in any capacity.. missed that part. Perhaps ... I'm not sure. You are correct that the folks who have advocated most strongly for use of water-boarding, "enhanced-interrogation" methods, or "torture warrants" were overwhelmingly (1) non-military, and (2) had no operational experience in interrogation. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Desperate? No, interested? Yes. There are conflicting statements being made by many people. Real results can answer many questions. Ihave to believe there is a real reason Cheney is asking for more to be released Yes, he's desperate to defend his policies and his choices. (Not you.) Rather than taking responsibility. Again I look forward to the release of more information - transparency. I strongly suspect that the release of more information will further show what we've seen thus far, i.e., torture is counter-productive and, as Sen McCain has also said the use of torture and “enhanced interrogation” has been the “greatest recruiting tool” for al Qa’eda, al Qa’eda in Iraq, and other insurgents targeting US soldiers, airmen, sailors, Marines, deployed civilians, and US nationals abroad. “So you can't underestimate the damage that our treatment of prisoners, both at Abu Ghraib and other [facilities, has] ... harmed our national security interests.” “What I am interested in and committed to is making sure we don't do it again. We're in this long twilight struggle here, and so America's prestige and image, as we all know, was damaged by these stories of mistreatment. And we've got to make sure the world knows that that's not the United States of America that they knew and appreciated for centuries.” That last part is in what I am most interested. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The SERE training methods were largely derived from tactics used or believed used by North Koreans and Soviets. The training manual was intended as training doctrine to enable US soldiers, airman, sailors, and Marines to develop skills to resist torture by our enemies ... it was *not* intended as an instruction manual for what we should do. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Or getting desperate? I am very much looking forward to release of what Mr. Cheney has purported. Thus far every claimed instance of water-boarding, "enhanced interrogation," or other torture securing intelligence has been false: information was already available, produced reams of faulty information, or just plain lies. Now history is not predictive; it should not be ignored either. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying