nerdgirl

Why? And why "fishy"? Context: -- The leader & founder of the compound was recently convicted and is serving two consecutive sentences of five years to life for being an accomplice to the rape of a 14-year-old. Addditional charges are pending on four counts each of incest and sexual conduct with a minor in Arizona. -- The 50-yo "husband" of the missing 16-yo (her identity is known; her whereabouts are unknown and she gave birth to a child at age 15) was "sentenced to jail last year after pleading no contest to conspiracy to commit sexual conduct with a minor. He was ordered to register as a sex offender for three years while he is on probation." -- Reportedly an unspecificied number of the minor females at the West Texas compound are pregnant. -- The officers obtained search warrants (multiple) and even initially delayed execution of the search warrants at the request of those in the compound (to put it diplomatically). One could speculate that delay may be associated with the disappearance (was she kidnapped?) of the minor who alerted the authorities. Being on the fringe of society is not the issue. Adults having unlawful intercourse (statutory rape) with minors and child abuse is the issue. If you (general not specific 'you') don't like the law, that's your option. If you violate the law, you risk consequences. I commend the San Angelo and other west Texas law enforcement, along with the FBI, for executing a lawful search. What would you have suggested/recommended? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

And unless you are working w/US Army's Edgewood Chemical and Biological Center (ECBC), US Army's Dugway Proving Ground, Battelle Memorial Institute, or a few of the DOE labs, you will not be working with actual neat agent, (specifically Schedule 1 agents per CWC & US national implementing legislation). One can do work at Universities or other private institutions with most precursors and simulants but not agents. Alternatively one can be part of a collaborative project where materials are sent to ECBC, DPG, BMI for testing. University campuses do not have neat -- or even dilute -- agent. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes, there were some less than stellar questions, along the lines of Q. "Why haven't we secured our ports?" A. "Well, it's been tough to do from Baghdad, but we'll get on it." Over all, better than the previous testimony. No major flubs - some very good questions and some very good answers. I would like to know that too. A friend/former colleague (& retired FA74/Chem Corps LTC) commented w/r/t the Congressional hearings that the wrong guys were testifying. Both GEN Petraeus and AMB Crocker are executing policy as it is directed to them do so. Sure they have input and options to influence/impact crucially how policies are executed. When is LTG Doug Lute going to be called to testify? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Napalm gel (sodium palmitate), naphtha, "Greek fire," similar flammable organic compounds, red phosphorous, or other incendiaries are not considered chemical weapons. You know that. /Marg Yes and not too long ago we had people in this very forum telling us it is a chemical weapon. But then again they may think water boarding is using chemical weapons. Yep, lots of things have been written on this board & other places about chemicals weapons with which I disagree, including who has/had them. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The rumors were prompted largely by Sec of State Rice’s appearance at Grover Norquist’s weekly DC meeting of inside the beltway conservatives. Speculate some wishful thinking on some folks part who want to see her as VP too. Political pundits were talking about it on the Sunday morning news programs last weekend. To be precise, she first came to Stanford’s Center for International Security and Arms Control as a fellow in 1981 before joining the Stanford’s political science faculty. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Napalm gel (sodium palmitate), naphtha, "Greek fire," similar flammable organic compounds, red phosphorous, or other incendiaries are not considered chemical weapons. You know that. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Hypothetically -- playing out the scenarios -- w/a little bit of devil's advocacy in the mix: if that’s the metric to be applied, would you (general “you,” not necessarily specific “you”) support/advocate legal possession of chemical or biological weapons (i.e., weaponized agents and munitions) by those who are trained and can safely manipulate them? The danger of adopting the strategy suggested in your comment (beyond the pseudo-hypothetical I posed above) is that it creates a skill or qualification test for what is argued to be a right. Is this really the argument and rationale on which you all want to base private gun rights? Way to twist things Bill. I was talking about you wanting to regulate what I can buy to now mustard gas. I am more of a blister agent fan myself anyway. W/r/t sulfur mustard (neat agent, traditional or improvised munitions), it's actually a moot point. Public Law 105-277 (in 98 or 99, I forget) implemented statutory law that prohibits possession of sulfur mustard (& other chemical warfare agents). 18 USC ... makes it illegal for a person to knowingly “develop, produce, otherwise acquire, transfer directly or indirectly, receive, stockpile, retain, own, possess, or use, or threaten to use any chemical weapon.” (It's the CWC implementing legislation.) Additionally, it is unlawful for any person to assist or induce any person to do the same, or to conspire or attempt to do the same. Violation of § 229 is punishable by fine, imprisonment, or death, and, also, triggers civil ($, IIRC minimum $100K) penalties. There are exemptions for approved facilities at CWC-permissible amounts and for transfer and destruction of agents. VR/Marg p.s. Sulfur mustard is a liquid a SATP; it solidifies at ~56F (depending on how pure). Sulfur mustard *is* a vesicant or blister agent. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

On my short list. -- The Universe and the Teacup: The Mathematics of Truth and Beauty. Non-technical exploration of the role of mathematics in popular culture and other things you wouldn’t expect. Being techie-inclined I actually wish the author included equations.

Aaah, now I see where your misassumption is - you're trying to generate it all on the US soil. Guess that would create a new commodity for the US to sell; something akin to Norway primarily using hydroelectric and selling most of the North Sea oil. See figure 2/3rds down the page from this 2005 Science News Focus piece. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Nope, only 10% coversion efficiency, over 100km^2 (versus the ~547km^2 you cited.) Assumes siting in southwest US (& other similar high solar radiation areas around the globe) not Maine or the Pacific Northwest. So you agree with me - fantastic! VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Not sure on what you based that assertion. Rick Smalley (Rice), Nate Lewis (CalTech), Dan Nocera (MIT), Sam Stupp (Northwestern) & I have made some different calculations. Less than half the size of Colorado. But more importantly, so? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

This past Monday, NPR's "Morning Edition" featured an excellent story & tribute, "Navy SEAL Killed in Iraq Receives Medal of Honor." VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I can find a lot of wisdom in what Marc writes. Energy demands are going to go up. Where is that increasing demand likely to be the largest? Not the US (by far). Not even China. India & Africa. Where’s the largest deficiency of infrastructure for meeting energy demands? Africa. Where are the highest growth rates expected to be in the next 25 years? Africa. Where is the largest change in demography expected? Africa & the developing world. By 2015, there will be 23 mega cities with populations in excess of 10 million. Of these, 19 will be in developing countries. By 2020, Africa will have 11 cities having more than 5 million inhabitants and more than 3000 cities with populations in excess of 20 000 (an increase of almost 300% from 1990) What’s the age demographics in those areas (& the Middle East, i.e., Tom Barnett’s “non-integrating gap”)? While most of the developed world gets older (US is an exception partially due to immigration), Africa and the Middle east have a youth bulge. All this combined is a recipe for instability. Recognition of that is one reason behind the DoD’s creation of a dedicated AFRICOM combatant command. I hope you’re right. I’m not sure history or situations in other parts of the world support that assertion. I will be hopeful nonetheless. Historically, as the price of oil increase from 1970 to 1982 (~$2/bbl in 1973 to nearly $40/bbl in 1982), there was no increase in production in response to price as economic theory would presume. Price had no effect at all. Production merely dropped. This was true even when there were nearly 5000 drilling rigs searching for oil in 1982. In order for patterns of consumption to change, something is going to have to happen to make maintenance of those patterns severely onerous. The market might drive to that end. People’s behavior will change then, especially in lieu of the reality that … The global requirement for power is ~13 trillion watts (or terawatts/TW). By 2050, the world’s energy needs are estimated to be ~28 TW. If every acre of arable land on the planet was converted to biofuel production, only 7 TW would be generated. (Nevermind, no food to eat, no crops to feed livestock, no natural fibers {sans silk}.) Even with the addition of 5,000 new nuclear power plants, thousands of additional wind turbines, and using every available flowing water source for hydroelectric power, it still will not approach 28 TW. Conservative estimates put the US reserve of coal to be enough for the next 200 years; some estimates suggest 250 or 300 years. We are going to use coal. From an economic perspective and limiting dependence on foreign energy sources, we should use coal. It’s on the table and should stay there. Invest in technology for cleaner burning and CO2 storage. Politically, also have to deal with liability issues for CO2 sequestration. 165,000 TW of sunlight hit the Earth every day. Invest in photovoltaics. Don’t take my word for it: to quote Steve Forbes from Dec07’s Forbes/Wolfe Nanotechnology Forum: w/r/t dealing with energy and climate change. “technology is the critical piece.” One of his prime concerns is that America’s declining investment in science and decline in training of new scientists and engineers is creating a situation in which America will be “buying” new ideas and innovation from foreign sources (like China) and becoming clients rather than selling them on the global marketplace. That’s what the view of the market. Algae – first commercial plant. Actively solicit ideas: For example, there need to be more Dennis Bushnell’s provoking some brilliant and some near-heretical ideas. So yes, lots behind what Marc notes. VR/Marg ---- ----- ----- Sources of data on which my conclusions are based: -- US Dept of Energy’s International Energy Outlook 2004 -- National Intelligence Council – “Global Trends 2015” & “Mapping the Global Future 2020” Attachments: (1) Regional Stability - “This map indicates the relative stability of the countries within EUCOM [i.e., one of the US DoD Combatant Commands; prior to the stand-up of AFRICOM late 2007, EUCOM included Europe and Africa - nerdgirl]. The stability of a country was determined by studying the political pressures within a country and the succession of power over the last decade. The data used is from the CIA World Fact Book. Areas marked in red indicate significant opposition to the current regime or a recent history of conflict in the succession of power. Areas marked in amber indicate countries that have political problems, but no armed conflict. Areas marked in green are considered relatively stable, with little opposition to the current government.” (2) Rate of Natural Increase (birth rates) – “The Rate of Natural Increase is defined as the Crude Birth Rate subtracted by the Crude Death Rate. The resulting number gives the population based on how fast the population is multiplying, and not how fast it is growing or reducing based upon other factors such as immigration and emigration. This is important because it shows which countries are growing rapidly. A rapidly growing population is difficult to handle, and a country can quickly be overwhelmed by an explosion in people.” (3) Electricity deprivation – Areas of the world in which populations do not have access to electricity. North America, Europe, Australia, and Japan do not appear on the map. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Very cool! Thanks for posting that! In addition to Jeanne’s observations, especially w/r/t concentration of manufacturing facilities, I’d be very curious to see two additional pieces: -- Normalization per capita -- Similar maps for China, especially SE and NE; India; Bangladesh (Dhaka); Nigeria (Lagos); and Mexico (Mexico City). What does it look like in places where there really are no environmental regulations to a lot less than even in the reddest of American States? VR/Marg [Attachment: graph showing geographical distribution, or concentrayion, of 75% of US population based on 2000 Census.] Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Best line thus far ... “War is not a linear phenomenon; it’s a calculus not arithmetic.” /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I had not heard of that. Do you have any links to reports? Is there an NGO (domestic or international) driving the effort? I have lots of questions: what’s the infrastructure in Zimbabwe? Capacity? Infiltration of cell phones and internet? Any leads would be much appreciated. Thanks. It would not qualify as "cyber-warfare" as based on what you've written the actions are being organized and executed by citizens (or 'non-state actors'). If it becomes too annoying and disrupting the government (i.e., the actions are effective in the political goals you described), I could imagine *Mugabe claiming* it was ICT-enabled terrorism. From what you describe, it sounds as if citizens are demanding accountability by their government using technology ... in a situation when normal, governmental process has failed. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Excellent! /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

General Petraeus and Amb Crocker are testifying before Congress on Iraq. First is the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) – just started. Available via C-SPAN. Hypothetically, if you were on the SASC or Senate Foreign Relations Committee, what would you ask? I would ask GEN Petraeus about implementation of counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy and tactics. How are the ideas being translated into action? Successes and recommendations for operationalizing the strategic aspects? I would ask him to address criticisms such as those by LTC Gian Gentile. I would ask for comments on LTC John Nagl’s proposed Advisory Corps. I would ask Amb Crocker if he sees a civilian equivalent of LTC Nagl … and if not, why not? (An easier ‘out’ would be for him to site the same reasons SecDef Gates has previously.) And if he does, I would ask then for his recommendations on how to revitalize that capacity? I would ask for both for their comments on progress of SSTR efforts. Specifically where does he need help and what recommendations he would have for successful, executable SSTR? And who should be doing it, especially 'R'? (I anticipate GEN Petraeus’ answer to the last will be “not the Army” or “not the uniformed military.”) Who then? In consideration of varying accounts of increasing frustration w/r/t Iranian involvement in attacks on U.S. and Iraqi Army units, should the US take a more aggressive approach toward Iran, or does Iran represent the kind of strategic and enduring threat to American security posed by transnational and radical Islamists terrorist groups like al Qa’eda? To GEN Petraeus: Recently, your image and person has been appropriated by conservative groups such as ‘Freedom’s Watch’ to support the policies of the Bush Administration. Although there is little you can do about such groups from Baghdad, it is hard to imagine GEN George C. Marshall permitting his image and person to be similarly used for political purposes during World War II. Do you worry that you, personally, and the General Officer Corps in a larger sense, are being over-politicized? I would ask Amb. Crocker about the Iraq central bank and oil revenues. What would you ask? And why? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What’s a “Neo Dem”? Is that like “neoliberalism”? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Please go back to my original post. The section quoted was taken *directly* from the Fitna News Agency, selected as indicative of reactionary (rather than pro-active) behavior. In the same quoted section, reference is made to "Bill O’Reilly’s militant calls for violent demonstrations and reprisals against ‘unbelievers’ who dare to oppose his dogma.” VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

When did Pope Benedict do that? A reasonable guess is that the Fars News Agency (FNA) intended the comment as reference to Benedict’s 2006 Regensburg lecture. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Do you therefore seek out articles that aren't peer reviewed? Seek them out? No...but I don't automatically dismiss them because they haven't been approved by the 'consensus', either. & There’s a legitimate question in there. If some group of scientists working under the scientific method reporting public data & generating reproducible results were systematically excluded that would be a completely reasonable & legitimate contention. If it were true. But it’s not. (As an aside: there are groups for which that has been historically true; how true it remains is subject to some debate.) If the contention were true, how did these guys get published in peer-viewed journals? Gou, X; J. Peng, F. Chen, M. Yang, D.F. Levia, and J. Li. 2008. A dendrochronological analysis of maximum summer half-year temperature variations over the past 700 years on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Or these guys? Hansson, D. and A. Omstedt. 2007. Modelling the Baltic Sea ocean climate on centennial time scale: temperature and sea ice. Climate Dynamics Or these guys? Very high-elevation Mont Blanc glaciated areas not affected by the 20th Century climate change, C. Vincent, E. Le Meur, D. Six, M. Funk, M. Hoelzle and S. Preunkert, Journal of Geophysical Research, May 2007.Vol 112, D10. Or these guys? Van de Berg, W.J., van den Broeke, M.R., Reijmer, C.H., and van Meijgaard, E. 2006. Reassessment of the Antarctic surface mass balance using calibrated output of a regional amtospheric climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, 10.1029/2005JD006495. Or these guys? (& this one is from Science!) Monaghan, A.J., Bromwich, D.H., Fogt, R.L., Wang, S.-H., Mayeweski, P.A., Dixon, D.A., Ekaykin, A., Frezzotti, M., Goodwin, I., Isaksson, E., Kaspari, S.D., Morgan, V.I., Oerter, H., Van Ommen, T.D., Van der Veen, C.J., and Wen, J. 2006. Insignificant change in Antarctic snowfall since the International Geophysical Year. Science, 313, 827-831. Those are all from respected, peer-reviewed journals. The World Climate Report Blog does a nice job of tracking them. Interestingly (to me), WCR touts (in order to demonstrate its credibility?) itself as “Acclaimed by those on both sides of the global warming debate, World Climate Report has become the definitive and unimpeachable source for what Nature [i.e., one of those peer-reviewed technical journals] now calls the ‘mainstream skeptic’ point of view.” Don’t always agree with them; don’t always disagree with them. What I love about them is that they show the primary *data,* pull apart the *data,* and discuss methods! I do seek out challenges.

The US National Snow & Ice Data Center has multiple on-line collections of glacier pairs, some going back to the 1890s. Most are from Alaska; there are a couple from Peru. The USGS at Glacier National Park also has an extensive collection of historic and current glacier pairs. I’ve seen some pairs from South America (Cordillera Blanca) & the Alps (Rhone & Pasterze) back to the mid-1850s. A glacier pair from Rhone in the Alps comparing 1859 to 2001. NB: These are *very* provocative photographs. They may be visceral illustrations of the effects of climate change. They are highly effective illustrative images. They are, however, not input data for climate change models: correlation does not equal causality. They may serve to provoke scientific research to understand the underlying mechanism(s) that led to the observations. A *very* reasonable first question is: “well are there other glaciers that either aren’t receding or are getting larger?” A May 2007 article from the well-regarded, peer-reviewed Journal of Geophysical Research entitled “Very high-elevation Mont Blanc glaciated areas not affected by the 20th century climate change” is the closest of which I am aware. (And that study is looking at the top of the glaciers not the terminus (bottom).) Otoh, studies of the terminus of Mont Blanc glaciers (both French & Italian sides) show receding, including L’Argentine for which there are historical records, of varying quality, back to the 1600s. Welcome observations of terminal glaciers that are not receding! Needs to be addressed. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Well, now that's a completely different metric altogether. Ya might be able to build that case. Altho' it would be most interesting to compare incidence of "piss-taking b'stard"-ness among practicing scientists versus skydivers ... & what about those who fall into both categories? Oh my! /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That article is at least formatted to look as though it was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Unfortunately, it wasn't actually published there. It doesn't appear to have been published in any respected, peer reviewed scientific journals. Nor are any of the authors qualified to speak authoritatively on the subject of climatology. Thanks for all those links. I was not familiar with the Robinson incident before. There's a fascinating turn/inversion there in context of those who argue against climate change policy & the underlying science making explicit or implicit assertions of fraud somewhere in the mix. Robinson mimiced the Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) format and mass mailed his article, along with a Wall Street Journal editorial and a petition. Now whether this was fraud or the intellectual version of a little Photoshopin' is undetermined; it was not an indicator of high integrity. Robinson's actions stirred such confusion that the National Academy of Sciences (an organization founded in 1863 by an act of President Abraham Lincoln) issued a statement: "The NAS Council would like to make it clear that this petition has nothing to do with the National Academy of Sciences and that the manuscript was not published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences or in any other peer-reviewed journal. "The petition does not reflect the conclusions of expert reports of the Academy." Most scientists tend to be a-political in their work. Sorry, guys that is reality ... plus if I started talking about supramolecular porphyrin networks, heme- & cytochrome mimics, & ssDNA-conjugated carbon nanotubes, etc most of you would tune out faster than you already do. There's an argument that incidents like this should be impetus for scientists to be more engaged in the public sphere and public debate. I'm not sure. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying