benny

Of all of the people we might be able to vote for next November, who would you say is the most well educated? Dean or Edwards... Definitely not my father's name got me a degree Bush. Never go to a DZ strip show.

Well, fair or unfair, the tax cut was a stupid move. What did they tell us, "give us 5 billion dollars and we'll give you 1 million new jobs." Where are those new jobs. If you've been keeping up with other posts around here (see Cold Mountain boycott), you'll find that many are going to India. But the stock market's BOOMING they tell us. Great, so all those rich folk that could "ride out" the recession are now even richer and they can hire even more Indian's to tell them why there cell phone, laptop, PDA or whatever they bought from Japan isn't working. But, as far as the war is concerned... I think the ease with which our boys swept through Iraq showed us just how much of a threat Saddam really was. I doubt we'd find it quite so easy in Syria or Saudi Arabia for that matter. Listen, Saddam is/was definitely a bad guy. Bad enough to risk American soldiers lives? That I don't think. Are there instances in which it is definitely worth the risk? Yes, and as I said before, I'd wholeheartedly support an invasion of Saudi Arabia or maybe just a toppling of there tyrranous royal party. But wait, they're our friends.... right Never go to a DZ strip show.

You seemed to avoid the whole SUPPORTING terror networks part of my reply. Saddam did, N'Korea does not. Sorry for "avoiding" it, I kinda got tired of typing. What evidence has been offered that Saddam was "supporting" terror networks? While it may be possible, in general, Saddam's policies ( i.e. not instituting an Islamic theocracy) tend to piss off the radical Islamic fundamentalists almost as much as we do. I think they were particularly pissed at him for inviting us over there by invading Kuwait in '91. Even still, if the terrorist thing is your argument, I have already pointed out that there would have been better places to invade than Iraq.... Indonesia, Syria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia... the list goes on and on, 15 of 19 911 hijackers were from where? Saudi Arabia. How many of 19 September 11th hijackers from Iraq? 0. Hmm... Seems to me if we're under the Bush Doctrine of pre-emptive strikes, there might be some more worthy places to be pre-empting. Never go to a DZ strip show.

No one from N Korea has attacked the US. N Korea is just trying to stay alive...They don't support terror networks. Well, no one from Iraq had attacked the US either.... for that matter, Bush Sr. and Donnie-boy Rumsfeld and Saddam were all buddies until Saddam got too big for his britches... But oh, it was ok that we were selling them wmd back then... I mean, it served our interest right?? I'm all for a strong military, hell, I think we should raise military salaries by at least a good 50%. But not while cutting taxes for the top one half of one percent of income earners though... Never go to a DZ strip show.

If it were truly about the terrorist threat, or the threat of weapons of mass distruction, we would have been in many places other than Iraq. Heck, there are many places I would support the invasion of, for instance, North Korea where we've got Kim Jung Il screaming "HEY, LOOK OVER HERE, WE GOT DA NOOKS!!!" or Indonesia where terrorism and support thereof is much more a problem than it ever was in Iraq (the only reason Ansar Al Islam thrived in Northern Iraq was our no fly zones, otherwise Saddam would have killed them (the terrorists) off years ago). But, when the people who are now telling us we have to stay in Iraq for who knows how many years are the same people who right up till September 11 were telling us that we needed to go breaking international treaties and spending billions of taxpayer dollars to develop a system to shoot down ICBMs in space, I find this whole Iraq thing a little fishy. A lot of good their pre-911 decisions did us against those 747s. Listen, I don't think that the people in the military are stupid. And I am very grateful that they do what they do and do it so well. But, their leaders definitely are capable of making mistakes and to question the decisions of our elected officials is in no way unpatriotic, in fact, particularly when it comes to matters of risking our own citizens lives, it is quite possibly one of the most patriotic things an American can do. PS, with AssCroft et al out there telling us we better watch what we say, I don't think we really can feel comfortable criticizing our government. Have we forgotten McCarthyism or the alien and sedition acts so quickly? Never go to a DZ strip show.

I have to say I agree. I think, however, the reason skydivers might lean a little toward the republican side however is because many have military background. But, if I was in the military, I'd want a CiC (that's commander in chief) that wouldn't put my life at risk so his buddies could get no-bid contracts in Iraq's soon to be booming oil industry. If threat was the reason for invasion why aren't we in North Korea? If "liberation" was our justification where were all these Hawks when Clinton liberated the people under Milosovich's tyrrany without losing an American soldier's life. Oh wait, that's right, they said we had no business being there. Never go to a DZ strip show.

Does it happen to involve the ability to drive a spike through a railroad tie using neither ones hands nor legs? Never go to a DZ strip show.

Unfortunately, the analysis given by whoever wrote that silly little article, is quite weak. OK, I definitely do think pro-athletes are overpaid, and pilots, hell, I want the guy who's trying to keep my ass in the sky making enough money for it to be worth his while. But, so much the this stuff, like salaries for pro-athletes, we are responsible for. And it's not just ticket sales. If we, the consumer, want to be able to actually attend those games, stop buying the things they sell us on tv during those games. When we stop giving them our hard earned dollars, they'll change! Never go to a DZ strip show.

I wish I could be there. I did my first jump, a tandem on Mike Mullins King Air out in West Tennessee a few years ago. Sweet ride, our jump altitude was 14.8K that day! Never go to a DZ strip show.

your friends must spend a lot more time jumping out a planes than driving or they are really good drivers. I've known several dead drivers or passengers. Hmm, how many fatalities of tandem passengers have there been? Never go to a DZ strip show.

oh my god, i had nightmares last night about how i was gonna get reemed on this one. as soon as my head hit the pillow I knew that my math was just completely wrong! Oh well, that's the problem with drinking and doing math problems... or driving. Question, what do you guys think of (maybe just slightly) inebriated tandem passengers. I think the DZ could face liability issues if something happened. Legally, a non-sober person can't sign the waiver and all. Never go to a DZ strip show.

Well I'd say the likelihood is that those people made many more "drives" during the year than 100. I drive at least twice a day. I'd say that hold true for about every American at least... making a total of... 730 drives per person per year (I think this is way conservative)... so, the numbers still seem to be in my favor in jumping out of an airplane vs driving a car. Never go to a DZ strip show.

I think freefall in the belly position must put a great deal of stress on the shoulders. I had an injury while playing flag football (yes that is flag) where i did some damage to my left shoulder (took 3 weeks before i had full range of motion back). Did my AFF1 two weeks ago and for a couple of days afterward the damn thing was sore. Never go to a DZ strip show.

No, it is not. (Common misconception among skydivers though, so there you DO fit in...)

I'd say the odds are, I'll buy the second. Never go to a DZ strip show.

I find it comforting to know that if this thread is any indicator, I might actually fit in the world of skydiving. Who woulda thunk it that there would be so many math nerds jumping out of planes. I guess maybe that we are logical enough to realize that even though it's scary as shit, it's still statistically safer than driving! Never go to a DZ strip show.

Man, I like you, at least you compliment me before ripping me! I know, I know, stats have value, hell, I'm an econ major, that's about all we do anymore. I was just pointing out that, in the case of no other outside factors, say, a random number generator, the odds of getting one number are simply 1:x possible numbers. I'd say physics could actually give a little better view of the parachute situation, and the coin toss, as both are affected by the laws of physics. I don't really hold a coin toss as being random. I mean, there are ways you can influence the outcome of a coin toss in just the way you flip it. Ok ok, thanks. Me off soapbox too. Obviously I don't believe what I said in that previous post or I wouldn't be hurling myself out of a plane this weekend. But hey, statistically it's safer than putting me behind the wheel. Never go to a DZ strip show.

Hmm, well, we've all thoroughly ripped the lark's original question to shreds and gone on to some rather interesting analyses. I have another thing to thow in here. If we look at it from a purely gaming point of view, the odds of double mal are much higher. a probabity that an event will occur in its purest theoretical sense is simply that event divided by the total number of possible outcomes (in the case of a coin 1:2). now, the way i see it when jumping out of a plane, the possible out comes are: no mal, single mal, double mal. So, 1:3. now those kinds of odds would keep me grounded. I guess my point is the theory of probabilities doesn't really apply to this situation or much of any other real world scenarios, unless of course you're in insurance. Never go to a DZ strip show.

Well, I think it would be better than never jumping again and living to 100, unless of course you died from a heart attack at 100 whilst nailing a 20 yr old blonde... now there's a way to go Never go to a DZ strip show.

I understand your point and agree happy, however, I was simply pointing out that even if it had everything to do with statistics, skylarks reasoning was wrong. If you read the lark's original post, he said he was asking a mathematical question. Or, maybe more correctly a question about the nature of probability. But, I digress. Never go to a DZ strip show.

So a person with 2000 pack jobs and a person with 20 have the same chance of packing a lineover. Is that what you believe, really? A coin flip is pure probability. A coin doesn't get any better at packing, does it? A coin doesn't get smarter, that is why the probability stays the same. Well now, we actually never discussed the experience or skill of the packer... Which think for the reserve, and hence, double mal situation, that doesn't really apply as they have to be done by FAA certified riggers right? Umm, anyway, under your argument the more experienced person probably has a lower likelihood of a double mal. I'd say I tend to agree with you. That doesn't help the lark's argument though. What was your point again? Never go to a DZ strip show.

ahh. i have it now.... within any given year your chance of dying in a car wreck are about 1/6000.... how many times have you gotten behind the wheel... ooh, you gonna die man! Never go to a DZ strip show.

The law of averages only really applies to sample sizes at or approaching infinity, i.e., you flip a coin forever, and in the end (which doesn't exist, this is forever mind you) 50% heads, 50% tails. Oh my god, I can hear the statisticians rolling in their graves... Never go to a DZ strip show.

You see, your understanding of stats and probability is simply wrong. the 5000+ JM and the 300 jump novice, have the same probability of having a double mal. Which, from the other info in your post you seem to believe is about 1/25000. So, 1st jump, or 50000th jump, you have a 1/25000 chance of a double mal. Never go to a DZ strip show.

Thanks for the encouragement, I'll do LII and possibly LIII next Saturday. I already thought " this is fun as !!!" though. I tried breathing deeply as the plane ascended to 14K, and going through the flow in my head, but my heart felt like it was about to leave my chest, and after my exit count I almost didn't go... I'm not sure really if I went or if my JM pulled me off the airplane! Oh well, hopefully I'll get over that "oh shit am I really gonna jump out of this perfectly good airplane??" feeling. Skies... Blue skies Never go to a DZ strip show.