crwtom

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Everything posted by crwtom

  1. what would be the motivation to claim such stuff ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  2. a superfluous and unmotivated hypothesis Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  3. Which one is your favorite interesting quote from the page: In comparison, Amercium-241 is a similar toxic Alpha radiation emitter. Instead of a half life of 138 days like Polonium-210 has, it has a half life of over 450 years. It is far more toxic - and there is 10 times more than the 'exempt quantity' amount in every smoke detector in your home. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  4. are you claiming liberals don't pay taxes? Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  5. Henry Kissinger gives up hope on Iraq and says Victory in Iraq no longer possible This at the heels of Blair's 'Iraq disaster' interview , and earlier dissent by Military Times and Ex Neo Cons. ... as well as GWB "fight it to the end" comments on Iraq in Vietnam. BTW, when he made these remarks in Vietnam didn't this diplomatic genius essentially tell his host country "the lessons is that we should have conquered you guys" Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  6. Tally thus far: one flipped over car, almost 30 arrests (including one who punched a police horse), and 35 couch/dumpster fires. Not anywhere as bad as in 2002 ... but I still rather stay away from campus for the week end. Some trivia for the super superstitious: Last night’s Pick 4 number in the Ohio Lottery was 4239, the exact numbers of the final score. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  7. Agree with him or not - he's definitelty one of the sharpest minds. Here what must have been one of his last Interviews He's not to be confused with a conservative though He's anit-war, and for legalizing prostitution & drugs. In the article he also thinks the fact that the Dems won this election is good thing - a split government keeps spending down. I guess he'd prefer limbo over heaven - just because he'd have another choice open which way to go from there. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  8. read Jared Diamond on this. (Guns, Germs & Steel or more recent articles) He connects it to geographical axis, that are going East West in the more succesful Eurasia, and North South in the less successful Africa. Really interesting stuff! Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  9. very plausible hypothesis - so I couldn't help testing it with the 33 votes in the 2006 Senate elections. See the plots in the attached images. The first shows how voter turn out depends on margin of victory of the winner. In a deep red or deep blue state you would expect the margin to be high and in a purple state to be low. By hypothesis high margin would therefore mean low voter turn out. In fact you find negative correlation (see regression line) but it is a rather mild one. What seems to have a stronger effect on voter turn out is the size of the state (population of eligible voters). The second plot measures how the turn out depends on population is logarithmic scale. There is a notably stronger correlation. That is, turn out in smaller states is likely to be higher. Obviously in a small state a single vote for a senator counts more. People may consciously think that way and, as a result, feel stronger about voting. Or parties may see it as more cost effective to focus their "get out the vote" campaigns in smaller states. Fewer people and events to pay for for the same vote in the Senate. Also true that in Germany and other European countries the decision whether to vote or not was for a long time after the war considered equivalent to a decision for or against democracy and democratic process. People who didn't vote were suspect of being fascists or communists. More than two generation after the war this view has faded quite a bit though. So much for the causes. Not uninteresting also consequences of low voter turn out which is essentially what people like Rove thrive(d) on. The "get out the vote" campaigns, and "mobilizing the base" are virtually unknown campaign tactics in democracies with voter turn outs in the 80%-90% range. Simply because everyone is already "out" to vote and is already "mobilized" whether in the base or not. Preaching to the base is not anywhere as effective there as in a 40-50% turn out democracy as the US is. There is no big reservoir of 50-60% democratically lazy people to tab into. As a result the focus in much more on getting moderate swing voters rather than radicalizing you party to get some base out - at least for the big parties. Competition on the far ends arises in the form of small new parties which often either disappear as quickly as they the appeared, or they get absorbed into the main stream such as the green parties. In any case the likes of Rove would be quite lost on this turf. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  10. The fact is that Bolton is by no measure a straight forward nomination, and there are many questions that need to be answered. Is he (still) the "quintesential kiss up kick down guy" (as the former official of this admin C Ford called him) who has a deeply hostile attitude towards the institution he's supposed to work with, or is a transformed and effective diplomat. If he seemd to work well in the last few months was that because he knew he was "on probabtion" or will you expect him to operate this way in the future too. Senators from both sides have points of views on both sides of the nomination as well as many questions. (There are also dems that have signaled an open to mildly positive position) There is a process in place to sort this out. I'd say give that process some credit and wait for it to take it's course. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  11. they are working together with Repub Sen Chafee, who said he will block the Bolton nomination, or Repub Sen Voinovich who strongly opposed him before. There is bipartispanship - just not the one that Bush would like. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  12. Prove to me that YUG doesn't exist Prove to me that TUR doesn't eist Prove to me that POR doesn't exist etc Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  13. In UK terms: Imagine the queen is still chief executive (instead of a prime minister) and the anti-monarchy party won both the House of Commons and the House of Lords. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  14. "morals" is a vague idea of an optimal strategy or a part/tool thereof in the game theory governing the inerplay between individuals and society. The fact that murder is universally deemed as reprehensible and under threat of punishment is because you wouldn't have a functional society if eveyone had to constantly fear being murdered. If people had to spend all their time looking over their shoulders whether someone was about to get them or waste resources on acts of revenge they could not go about constructive jobs, raise families, etc. A minimal level of security guaranteed to every individual has proven crucial in order for a society to progress and be successful in the game between individuals and groups. Societies that can not guarantee such securities tend to implode and disapper (in a macroscopic Darwinistic sense). The tool to guarantee the secuity is again game theorietic - imposing s threat that out weight the benefit of, e.g., murder. There may be some inate hardwired "morals" - which, similarly, be explained by biological selection and survival of primate groups and societies. (this may be manifested in instincts like empathy etc) It seem though, to the greater extend, the use of and adherence to rules that guarantee the safety of individuals is cogniitively/culturally evolved through time. There are many societies in history (and even today) where arbirary killing and murder is not taboo - we tend to look onto these societies as very primitive and lost in the dark ages. The full story is presumably a fair amount more complicated and subtle. (Which it should be since it's a very long one) Nevetheless, there is no reason to cook up some phantasy black box instead of trying to understand the dynamics that brought about this self-control of society (through "morals" of whatever) over the past tens and hundreds of thousands of years. Talking about deity doesn't explain anything (that only replaces one unknown with another and confuses everyone) However, deity has proven a very useful tool for a society to exercise contral over itself. Cheers, Thomas ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  15. Bush said Rummy will stay until the end of his presidency. So does this mean Bush presidency is over? ... just hoping? Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  16. Well, obviously Dean was hoping for a two-third majority in both houses (which would have opened all doors) but got gravely disappointed by the current results that tied his hands. GWB doesn't exactly have a track record of being a good listener. He needs constant reminders - - - such as 230+ house reps of the wrong color. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  17. 40% Atheists here? How is it that atheists are so hopeless as Presidential Material? Americans are twice as likely to vote a Latter-Day Saint into Power Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  18. not sure if this was already posted somehwere The End of Suburbia - 52 minute Documentary on Oil some other sicknesses of US society that suburbian life style aggrevates * Obesity - people don't walk anymore * Destruction of environment * Social isolation - people don't know many of their neighbors Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  19. or anyone else who he right now still saying they're doing an A-OK job. (which would me a much longer list) or anyone who would create a such a mess (which you never did, I'm sure) Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  20. After the Bush Admin started blaming its generals for the debacle in Iraq to preserve the Rummy Mummy the frantic finger pointing among the war mongers continues. Now even those who concocted the ideology and rationale the war and were pressing the admin for a invasion from day one are bailing out - read "Former hawks now say they wouldn't back Iraq war" The military is also pointing back as you can read the Editorial Time for Rumsfeld to go in the Army Times. The joke about Barney being the last supporter of GWB on Iraq and Rumsfeld starts sounding more and more real. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  21. The verdict of in the Dujail trial of Saddam Hussein is scheduled for Sunday, November 5th - two days before the US midterm elections. Is this a simple coincidence or was this choice of date for the verdict influenced by US interests (either in US or in Iraq) that are hoping for an impact on the US elections? Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  22. so what's an illegal combatant who is not already a crminal? somone who forgot to renew is combatting permit? Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  23. it's the Maple Leaf for the Canadians and Scott Joplin. Oak is the leaf that was popular with the Nazi's Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  24. you forgot a tie in the senate - although you should usually not bet on a coin landing upright on its edge this seems like a likely possibility according to many polls. That'll keep Cheney busy. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true
  25. interesting how language has changed. There was a time when the first choice of adjective was `brave' or some such thing. Now it's become `poor' . Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true