FLYJACK

Ryan's height analysis/opinion is highly flawed... His probability distribution is wrong. I would like to have the source for this study... these witness reliability studies vary greatly based on the methods.. the subjects in these studies are exposed to the same event, they were not for Cooper. The Cooper witnesses unlike these studies were not exposed to the same event/experience and have different confidence levels.. Two saw Cooper at the terminal not aware he was to become a hijacker,, they both said they wouldn't be able to ID him,, Virtually no confidence. Alice did not see Cooper standing. Some confidence. Three male passengers knew Cooper was suspicious but only saw him seated. Males are better at sizing up other males than woman are. Some confidence. Flo only saw Cooper standing when he boarded,, he was not a hijacker at that time. She saw him seated but the FBI thought she was too emotional to be reliable.. Some confidence. Tina saw Cooper seated and standing. She said he was seated the entire time except for the brief time when he went to the lav.. She also saw him standing when she went to the cockpit but the lights in the rear were out. Confidence medium. Ryan gave all these witness who saw Cooper standing the same confidence level and ignored those three that saw him seated. The FBI's initial description had Cooper from 5-9.. they updated to from 5-10 based on Tina seeing him standing. This wasn't the criteria used by the FBI for vetting suspects, they used 5-8 as the lower bound. Since almost everyone self reports their height without shoes,, an inch needs to added to account for shoes.. The reported height is an inch less than observed with shoes. So, Tina's 5-10-6' should have the highest confidence level however it suffers from sample size error. One person. One person is not reliable. Tina's observed is actually 5-9 to 5-11 reported height. Ryan claims to understand this but doesn't actually. So, Ryan has a sample size error, confidence error and probability distribution error. For example, in a normal distribution the Cooper data assuming all inputs have the same confidence (they don't) indicate 5-10.5 at the peak (5-9.5 reported), tailing off to the sides.. or probability drops either side,, Ryan's distribution peaks at 6 and drops to zero at 5-10.. this isn't valid even if all inputs have the same confidence level and they don't. Since the Cooper height inputs have a wide variation in confidence the probability distribution confidence is low. Ryan is effectively relying on low confidence data and comparing it to a study where all participants have the same experience. The fact is the FBI used 5-8 as the lower bound for valid reasons. I am not claiming Cooper must be under 5-10, based on the witnesses he could be from 5-8 (reported) to 6 foot... There is no evidence or valid argument to claim Cooper could not be under 5-10 reported height. Since the witnesses did not have the same experience they have different confidence levels, that needs to be accounted for,, however Tina having the highest confidence level exhibits sample size error.. one person.

WAY too short..

Is this Skip's Towncraft Snapper? or this that another pic because this tie is too short to be Cooper's tie.

Ryan, What study is this.. it is not consistent with most others.. Need to see the methods..

Of course it is better to have the passengers go out the back.. when you have a gun and control the doorway. The crew could have run off the front during Cooper's hijacking with Cooper at the rear.

Tina went to the front approx 4 minutes after takeoff.. The rear lights were OFF... when she went forward and last saw Cooper standing About 8:00 Tina saw the stair light go on... shortly after Cooper said he was having trouble with the stairs.. that indicates the lever was moved out of the up/lock detent a second time...

That is a good point,,, these podcast/videos are for Cooper people... doing something for the general public is a completely different ballgame... I have discussed Cooper with top level media off the record and you need to build a base foundation of case facts just to start.. very challenging and time consuming. I imaging Ryan has faced this issue with his book,, balancing a Cooper audience with the public audience level knowledge. But Nicky's whining is a red herring, it makes no sense to criticize me for not doing Cooper media, Georger hasn't done any either. I have done more media by reach than anyone in the Cooper world.. So, it isn't the real issue, Nicky is threatened and is throwing anything he can grab at me in a tantrum because he can't articulate his fear.. just lies and misinformation to discredit. Nicky represents the toxic nature of the Vortex that undermines the advancement of the case.. he needs an intervention.

HAHA,, no nothing like that.. I have facts.. not speculation..

No, nothing like that..

Sure it sucks but there are things I can't reveal..

He claimed it was packed with detonators and plastic explosives... it wasn't.

I can explain that but don't want to give it all away.. Let's say, if H was Cooper then using ONLY a briefcase bomb was not his initial plan. and if Cooper's bomb was fake and he did not have a concealed weapon that would make him vulnerable. H used a gun and a fake briefcase bomb that he threatened to explode by shooting it.

There are things that appear inconsistent that aren't in reality.. The teeth is a good example, when I read that there was a report he was missing several upper side teeth I was baffled because at that time I had a pic of him showing his upper front teeth from 1972 and none were missing.. I couldn't explain it then but I knew there had to be some explanation.. it took me six years and I found out that one person made that claim and it was the two upper bicuspids missing.. Down the side and common for people who wear braces and very difficult to notice. As for exiting out the rear vs the front.. I don't see that as an issue, Cooper had a briefcase bomb and was not revealed as the hijacker whereas H had a gun and was known.. I think exiting out the back was safer for H in his situation, he controlled the exit point. There have been some big things that I have had to work through and a few I am still working on.. the biggest one was if he was in FBI custody how did they not figure out he was Cooper...

Exactly, consider the source,, Nicky who has lied and made false accusations completely screwing up my previous posts.. Clearly, you are threatened.. I think I know why... but, I won't forget this nonsense Nicky. Your behaviour is irrational.

Most people can still function without their glasses, There was an incident when he forgot them and his son brought them to him..

yes of course, but his jump was within a few minutes of getting to the bottom.

The problem here is that Cooper can't determine where he is until he descends the stairs at 8:09-10.. and they are more than a few feet open. Then he may see lights/glow possible ground lights.. but jumps within a couple minutes. So he really had only a few minutes to determine and pick a jump spot. It doesn't indicate foreknowledge or planning but just look down and go...

You have no point... and you need to get your eyes checked because you made many false allegations. You just don't have the game for this stuff, Nicky.

I have my facts straight... you screwed everything up, not me. I was booted from Ryan's FB by somebody. Cunningham told me nobody wants me on FB. Do you think insults and disseminating lies is helpful in any way? So, let me try again, what exactly do you want Nicky? because this has nothing to with Cooper and your strategy seems to be self defeating.

Limbach?, I was definitely booted.. and never posted

I was suddenly blocked or kicked out, can't access. I haven't tried to join again.

That post was earlier.. responding to Ryan's false claim that I was hiding for two weeks... when my step brother passed. Later, last year I left for a longer time. Get your facts right. You have the time frames and context screwed up. What are you afraid of, Nicky??

Nicky, you are confused.. very confused. Amazing that you have managed to conflate 3 entirely separate events. I am not surprised though. Ryan posted the Hahneman files long before.. I left last year for almost a year. Not related. That post you show was in reference even earlier when I left for a few weeks when by step brother suddenly passed away.. Ryan accused me of hiding.. clearly he and you are making claims that you have knowledge of.. So, you keep posting lies here to attack me for some bizarre reason.. you seem obsessed in discrediting me and not discussing the Cooper case. You must feel threatened to lie so much. What is it you really want? Did you draw the short straw? It is a bit annoying to have to respond to your toxic lies... I am sure FB is riddled with them.

It is a really strange strategy to insult and block me from FB (when I never posted anything) while claiming I am afraid to talk outside of here.. IMO, FB is primarily a social platform and because of that it undermines the case with politics and groupthink.. it is better to have fewer people with a higher average case knowledge that far more with a lower average case knowledge. Most people are in this case for the social aspect,, nothing wrong with that but I am not. My goal is to solve thing for myself not to be praised or accepted by others. I spoke to Tom K,, and I won't speak for him, he can speak for himself. but we agreed that the exact cause of the erosion is unknown whether in situ or in the river and an experiment needs to be done on a bundle to replicate rolling/tumbling of a bundle along the river bottom.. I am working on that, we don't have paper (cotton/linen) money in Canada anymore but you can get a cotton linen paper in the same ratio as money. So, it is a bit tricky without destroying $300 USD...

That is the point, Mac got out at a much much higher speed.. albeit a smaller opening. The sled test showed that the stairs were open a few feet with no weight on them.. The fact that the stair light came on twice indicates that it wasn't the speed that held the stairs closed but Cooper's failure to operate them correctly initially. The plane didn't need to slow down..