ShcShc11

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Everything posted by ShcShc11

  1. This is the problem with the austerity concept. "A dollar today does not equal a dollar cut later. Think of the U.S and WWII. America accumulated a massif debt and thereafter had 20 years of good-times. It is much easier to pay back during the good-times than try to cut it now in a zero-bound economy. A dollar cut is equivalent to only 0.30$ in savings in the short-term and has negative GDP output in the long-term. This is already happening BECAUSE of austerity. When Italy reached 7% 10-years bond, it had no lenders. Same thing with Ireland. And the recent Spanish bond sells went badly. So your scenario has still been happening when they were cutting their budgets. Why are the Italian/Spanish bonds higher? Lack of growth, missed revenue projections and Germany's constant threat to "cut them off". Spain is at 23% unemployment... Can't go any worse than that. And Spain in 2007 had a lower debt/GDP than Germany,. Cheers! :) Shc
  2. Greece deserves what it gets. No question about it. Its the unfortunate truth for them. But this isin't about Greece- its about the Eurozone. Countries such as Spain were responsible of their budget and had a favourable Debt/GDP ratio in comparison to other countries (yes, even Germany). If you look at the GIIPS debt chart, it was falling dramatically in 2007. So this whole morality chart should be debunked. This isin't about "you've been bad, you should be punished". Its about "how do we fix the economy so that the U.S won't get sucked into Europe's dumb economic policies"? Major American banks such as Citi and BoA still holds a good chunk of the Eurozone and we really should hope that EU gets out of its turmoil else there is a strong possibility of a financial collapse in the U.S due to collaterals and repos. If you want, I can dig up the numbers and charts of Citi's reliance on the Eurozone. The first lesson of economics is: Economics doesn't care about morality. If you want to save the Eurozone, then it has to gain growth and regain market confidence. A 6-7% 10 years Italian bond is unsustainable - it reached that height because the austerity measures brought Italy's growth lower than projected. Later on, I can go on a little more about the ECB (European Central Bank)'s policies since 2010 and what it did. anyway.. Two distinct solutions are there for the Euro: -Break-up the Euro in the same way the world broke up with the gold standard in the 1930s -Get Married: Currency union is not possible without political union. A United States of Europe would need to be created where transfer-unions happen between states/provinces. Also, See the U.K chart below in regards to how effective its austerity policies were since Cameron's Government came to power. The U.K is now in a Depression worse than the 1930s Great Depression. Cheers!
  3. I suggest you to go look at the U.K. Cameron's motto is: "Austerity is a tough and brave choice". No, its just economic stupidity. The U.K keeps missing its target and they are wondering why the market have little to no confidence in the U.K. Associating credit cards to Government debt is simply Orwellian. Debt can be bad, but not all debt is. Cheers!
  4. Keynesian economics doesn't work... When the Japanese fell into deep financial problems (relating to its banks) back in the 1990s, Milton Friedman agreed with Ben Bernanke's conclusions from his 1999 essay. This isin't Keynesian- this is common sense economics. Reagan and Thatcher did a great job with stagflation recession under its times, but America's Great Recession is similar to the Japanese economic crisis of the 90s. http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/bernanke_paralysis.pdf Based on the last few years, 1 euro of budget cut and austerity brings approximately 0.3-0.4 even in the short run and much much less in the mid-run/long-run. Merkel is by no means evil and I understand she has a tough job to do trying to lead Europe. She is however leading them in the wrong direction and Europe is essentially committing Economic-Suicide. U.K missed its budget target. Spain missed its budget target. Italy did too... and its not just the PIIGS. Finland too. France too. Cheers!
  5. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/apr/24/european-turmoil-american-collateral Germany's Angela Merkel wants to continue her disastrous policy of "cut the budget" and austerity measures ignoring the basics of zero-bound depression economics. "The reality of the eurozone's troubles should lend support to President Barack Obama's campaign against GOP presidential nominee presumptive Mitt Romney and congressional Republicans. It provides a demonstration that austerity is self-defeating, that fiscal stimulus is needed in a deeply depressed economy, that recovery from a financial crisis is a slow and halting process, and that by grasping the nettle immediately, the Obama administration has succeeded in stabilizing its financial sector – while the Europeans have made a hash of it. Yet politics, especially in America, is never so easy. As with his recent campaign stop in which he blamed Obama for a factory closing which actually occurred during the Bush administration, Romney will blame Obama for every problem – no matter how tortured or fraudulent the logic. It would be a great irony if Obama, who has been far more supportive of expansionary fiscal policy than any European leader, is hurt by the blowback from austerity in the eurozone. But this is what can happen when voters are in a foul mood and opponents are unencumbered by the truth." Cheers!
  6. God I wish weather wasn't so bad here in Canada.
  7. Economics in the U.S (and especially Europe for that matter) truly reached an Orwellian level. People doesn't want to accept that supply-sides economics (aka Reagan economics) is nowhere near what we are experiencing since 2008 (zero-bound depression economics). The Reagan economics can only work for stagflation-type of recession. A medicine that cures lupus won't work on someone who has cancer. Correctly diagnose the problems then give the medicine. Cheers! :) Shc.
  8. I think we'll see an attempt at face saving, with a plan to have a two tier Euro system, with the breakaway and setting up of a 'PIIGS' group. Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain having a second economic system which better matches their economic situations while the big economies go on in a premier league Euro system with an opportunity for tier two to progress to tier one if the pre-requistes are met. Its been considered, but it wouldn't work because: 1) Politically, it would be extremely difficult for a country to adopt a humiliating currency. 2) Financially, it would essentially mean bankruptcy for the country involved in a low-tier currency. -Business Contracts that are based on the current Euros would become an impossible mess to fix. How much of the Euros should be converted to "second tier" Euros? -What investors would be willing to put money on countries that are as risky as PIIGS bonds? Two speed currency would bring a stable economy such as the Italy down to Greece status (being unable to repay the debts) 3) It wouldn't fix the fundamental problems of the Euro. If Finland one day had a major internal crisis, they still cannot devalue their currency because of Germany's economic size. What then? Break the Euro currency further tiers? Might as well have all countries use their own currency. This is a good summary: http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/22/zakaria-europe-suffers-from-too-much-austerity/?hpt=hp_c1 Europe faces too much austerity at a time when its economy is at the zero-bound. Cheers! Shc
  9. The alternative is to have a European-bond and/or the European Central Bank guarantees all European debt (minus Greece). This would effectively end the crisis and creating a United States of Europe which has been dreamed of since the 1900s. Without this, European is on a currency which they have no fiscal control/as bad as Europe 1930 when they were under the gold-based currency. Unfortunately, Germany doesn't want to do any of this... This isin't Hitlerism (far from it), but Germany decided to commit Economic-suicide for Europe. Cheers! Shc
  10. Looks like Hollande is going be the next French President. Its quite a shame that none of them have a real viable economic plan to restore the European Union. The patient is sick and dying. Hollande's economic can be summarized as: "I don't really know what to do yet- we should wait and see further developments". Hollande is calling for 75% tax for anyone making over 1million Euros (rubbish idea). Sarkozy's plan is: "Bleed the patient to death like in the medieval ages and let's hope he somehow becomes healthy again". Expect more European Economic crises soon enough... Cheers!
  11. Very nice! Good to hear. I do not particularly think the Me262 had that much of an impact. The Jumo004 engine particularly had a lot of bugs and were sent to war far too early. There was a myth in the post-war era where Adolf Galland and Messerschmitt said the "Me262 could have been operational by March-April 1944 had Hitler not tried to put bombing capabilities". Fact is, the engines could not be ready until Summer 1944. A legendary aircraft for sure, but falls into the same category as the V2 and U-Boat XXIII. Germany just does not have the economy to build them with the quality desired (nor the quantity. Cheers!
  12. Very nice! Is that with the military rigs? Cheers and all the success Bill! Shc
  13. There are also times where a crucial piece of aviation could have turned around an entire battle. Had there been an efficient and precise French bomber with escorted Dewoitine-520, they could have blocked the (2) main Ardennes roads and prevent 7th Pz Div from crossing the Meuse. Bitter positional warfare would have been ensued... If only ... Cheers! Shc
  14. So... anything new on this? Cheers! Shc
  15. She was a beauty weren't she?
  16. or we can rightly acknowledge the goods and bads on both sides. But truth is, people will always tend to side on one place more because they don't have time to do the extensive / time-intensive research. Else people would go on to talk about the real policies that have been laid out and rightly criticize them. e.g: The Ryan Plan which is supposed to be deficit-neutral. However, there's a 850 billion $ gap in which he says he would close tax loop holes without really specifying the which loop holes. (I don't even think we can get even 30 B$ in tax loop holes closures). Cheers! :) Shc
  17. yawn. since when did Political discussions centered around such pointless debates. It would be nice to have a talk again (such as the ones in 1991) about the U.S role in humanitarian situations (e.g: Bosnia and Rwanda). Cheers! Shc
  18. What . a . dick. (and when you see him you can tell him I said that) I bet he'd crap himself if he had a real mal. WTF goes on inside peoples heads?. haha yeah. It was probably a dick move of him. It was still a super memorable/fun jump though. Back then, I was a naive jumper and my first thought was: "oh whatever, at least the parachute opened! as long there's something over our heads and there's a few lines attached, we SHOULD be fine" When you're a tandem passenger, you're #1 concern will always be: "I hope there won't be a double-total malfunction" Cheers! Shc
  19. Did the tandem last summer... there was the freefall then the tandem master opened the 'chute: once it opened, he went: "HOLY SHITTT, 4 PARACHUTE LINES BROKEN!!!" Scary b/c he seemed really genuine when he yelled it out. Cheers! Shc
  20. Quality-wise, its pretty much like the last one. It goes into the psychology of Geraldine and Karina Hollekim a bit. The film has some pretty scenes, great music, great scenes... It has just a bit too much ski-ing haha (but the angle/ski shots are really nicely done). Definitely watch it in HD. If you liked the last one, then I recommend it. Cheers! Shc
  21. What makes you think that Skyhook is an exception ? Well the poster's assertion is that all MARDs are unsafe even in 2012. I'm assuming he is including the skyhook too? If that is so, are there any tangible real-life examples (or better yet, statistics) that demonstrate that it is unsafe? As the good ol' folks at ChutingStar once said: "not necessary, but highly recommended".
  22. "is still true in 2012" even the skyhook? Cheers!
  23. It should be easier because you don't have some damn wall blocking your way. In belly, it should be more or less the same. Sitfly is apparently tougher to do in the sky than in the tunnel. Cheers! Shc