nerdgirl

Concur ... While acknowledging error bars in SC polls are high and there may be some satirical factor, I also wonder if there is some factor of the anonymity of the internet ? One counter-example that suggests it may be satire (hopefully ?!?): Louisiana elected a young (36 at the time), inexperienced (3y in Congress), son of Indian immigrants Governor in 2007. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thank you Mr. Powell Thanks for posting that. I didn't get to see/listen to MTP yesterday. Would like to hear the rest of his comments ... VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Just seems like an American to me.

Could you give an example of "Obama's policies" or rhetoric that suggest causality? I'm genuinely asking here because I don't see it ... perhaps you've seen something I haven't (?). As I'm reading it blaming Sen Obama or his campaign for the actions of this one person has some similarities to blaming gun manufacturers advertising (rhetoric) or the NRA (rhetoric) for gun crimes, which I'm fairly confident you (& many others) would not agree. Please clarify if you mean something else. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

One of the most pressing retention issues over the last 5 years, for the Army in particular, is O-3s (Captains). From Defenselink.mil:"Officer retention patterns are changing, causing the services increasing worry about continuation rates, particularly among O-3s. "Anecdotal reports to DoD officials suggest Army, Air Force and Marine Corps captains and Navy lieutenants are leaving the military in numbers not seen since 1973 -- the founding of the all-volunteer force. If the stories are accurate, the services might find trouble ahead when it comes time to pick promotion-worthy O-3s -- they prefer large candidate pools, but might not have that luxury in some specialties. "A hot economy is partly to blame, said service officials, but exit interviews with departing officers seem to indicate a growing disenchantment with military life." It's important to recogize that the 'exodus' are small but significant numbers, on the order of 10-15%. More importantly, imo, is which junior officers are leaving in larger percentages. From December 2007 article in Washinton Monthly: "In 2003, around 8 percent of junior officers with between four and nine years of experience left for other careers. Last year [2006], the attrition rate leapt to 13 percent. 'A five percent change could potentially be a serious problem,' said James Hosek, an expert in military retention at the RAND Corporation. Over the long term, this rate of attrition would halve the number of officers who reach their tenth year in uniform and intend to take senior leadership roles. "But the problem isn't one of numbers alone: the Army also appears to be losing its most gifted young officers. In 2005, internal Army memos started to warn of the 'disproportionate loss of high-potential, high-performance junior leaders.' West Point graduates are leaving at their highest rates since the 1970s (except for a few years in the early 1990s when the Army's goal was to reduce its size). Of the nearly 1,000 cadets from the class of 2002, 58 percent are no longer on active duty. "Colonel George Lockwood, the director of officer personnel management for the Army's Human Resources Command, wrote [in 2006], 'The Army is facing significant challenges in officer manning, now and in the immediate future.' Lockwood was referring to an anticipated shortfall of about 3,000 captains and majors until at least 2013; he estimated that the Army already has only about half the senior captains that it needs. "Read the last line again, please,' Lockwood wrote. 'Our inventory of senior captains is only 51 percent of requirement.' In response to this deficit, the Army is taking in twenty-two-year-olds as fast as it can. However, these recruits can't be expected to perform the jobs of officers who have six to eight years of experience. 'New 2nd Lieutenants,' Lockwood observed, 'are no substitute for senior captains.' "Iraq, in one way or another, is a driving force behind many officers' decision to leave. For some, there's a nagging bitterness that the war's burden is falling overwhelmingly on men and women in uniform while the rest of the country largely ignores it. While many officers don't oppose the war itself, returning repeatedly to serve in Iraq is a grueling way to live. One of the many reasons for this is that it corrodes their families; the divorce rate among Army officers has tripled since 2003. Internal surveys show that the percentage of officers who cite 'amount of time separated from family' as a primary factor for leaving the Army has at least doubled since 2002, to more than 30 percent." The more instructive time period, imo, would be to look back to the days after the Vietnam war and at the creation of the all-volunteer force. How to retain, maintain, and support the junior officers -- of all services -- today who will be the general officers 20+ years from now *and* making military service an attractive option for the best & brightest of tomorrow & today who will be general officers 25-30+ years from now is a concern of mine. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

No. If there was such a politically-motivated 'exodus', that would suggest that those officers and NCOs were there for purely partisan reasons. Rather than serving in order to support and defend the Constitution and the United States. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur w/that assessment w/r/t ineffectiveness of the early Treasury Secretaries. Why were they powerless/excluded/marginalized? Former Secretary O’Neill suggested it was due to the elevation of ideology (neo-conservative) in the early days of the first administration over debate and consideration of pragmatic and fiscal aspects of executing policy based on that ideology. During the second administration many of the early ideologues (e.g., Former DepSecDef Wolfowitz, former USD (Policy) Feith) had left. More traditional realist and comparatively fiscally conservative Republicans gained (some) power. (It's hard to stop a moving, fully-loaded train.) The unanswered question in my mind is the causal chain: did the latter gain some power due to recognition of problems and fiscal consequences of the early neo-conservative driven administration (which would be a more active scenario) or was it just a loss of critical mass (e.g., pure counting bodies)? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Additional expansion of drilling into the Destin Dome is still unlikely to meaningfully affect US dependency on oil and is certainly a “no” in the mid-term (5-10 years). Like the Bakken, the Destin Dome is already being tapped, for the Destin off the coast of Alabama. W/r/t off the coast of Florida, the decisions to not drill have largely been driven by the State of Florida. Chevron has lease on the Destin Dome off Florida. The Depts of Commerce of President GHW Bush, President Clinton, and President GW Bush have all blocked (GHWB) or refused to overturn the will of the voters of Florida & Florida State government (WJC & GWB) on drilling off Florida. Only 0.1% of natural gas is used as vehicle fuel (data table here or see attached pie chart). Natural gas is primarily used for industrial (>30%) uses, home heating (21.6%), commercial heating (13.9%). The few natural gas powered vehicles are almost exclusively sold through California & Nevada, where the impetus in the 1990s for introducing them was largely smog reduction (not reducing US dependency on oil, foreign or otherwise). 8.1M homes (mostly older and seasonally in the Northeast) use oil for home heating. That accounts for

Seriously, what do you mean by a "clear winner"? And by what means do you propose to achieve that goal? What do you mean by this statement? Asking for clarification here: do you mean that dissent should be prohibited? Can you imagine a scenario to achieving "clear winner" status that goes against your core beliefs? Should everyone in the country be required "stand as one" in that situation? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

How many articles does it take to get to "very much"? There have been 552 mainstream media news articles reporting on the attack as of this morning. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks for the additional information. From the story you cited: "[Pittsburgh Police spokeswoman Diane] Richard said [Ms Ashley] Todd now says she isn't sure if it was a bumper sticker on her car or a campaign button on her jacket that angered the attacker. Richard said Todd added new details to the attack, saying at one point she lost consciousness. "'She also indicated she was sexually assaulted as well. She indicated that when he had her on the ground he put his hand up her blouse and started fondling her. But other than that, she says she doesn't remember anything else. So we're adding a sexual assault to this as well,' Richard said."Theft and violence against women seems to be the underlying issue here. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Wonder how many folks are going to try that method? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

It was reported yesterday that the DHS is taking a small step to reduce the ID-triangle. DHs Press release: “TSA to Assume Watch List Vetting with Secure Flight Program”: “The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) today announced the issuance of the Secure Flight Final Rule, which shifts pre-departure watch list matching responsibilities from individual aircraft operators to the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and carries out a key recommendation of the 9/11 Commission. By bringing watch list matching responsibilities in-house, TSA can better remedy possible misidentifications when a traveler's name is similar to one found on a watch list.” Interestingly (to me) this is be discussed in terms of easing the process for commercial travelers rather than as a measure to reduce (altho’ not close) a vulnerability: “Security officials say the additional personal information [collected by airlines on making reservations, i.e., full name, birth date, sex] -- which will be given to airlines to forward to the federal agency in charge -- will dramatically cut down on cases of mistaken identity, in which people with names similar to those on watch lists are wrongly barred or delayed from flights. “Over the years, watch-list mismatches have frustrated countless passengers whose names are similar to those on the agency's no-fly list, or on a second list of "selectees" identified for added questioning. The passengers have included infants and toddlers; Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.); and the wife of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), Catherine, whose name is similar to Cat Stevens, the former name of the watch-listed Britain-based pop singer who converted to Islam. “‘We know that threats to our aviation system persist," he [DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff] said. Secure Flight ‘will increase security and efficiency, it'll protect passengers' privacy, and it will reduce the number of false-positive misidentifications.’” How about false negatives? It's still largely 'security theater' focusing on redcuing vulnerabilities rather than reducing motivation or capability (the other two components to threat reduction). VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I'm somewhat partial to SecDef Gates ... but concur that Sen Nunn would be an excellent candidate. He was offered SecDef twice at the start of the GW Bush admin, and he turned it down twice (before former SecDef Rumsfeld was offered the position). It's about 50:50 mix for me. Know a couple of the folks personally. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

If the "B" was intended to stand for "bitch," this sounds like a hateful crime against a woman. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thought it was JFK who said that? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

"Would this end our dependence on foreign oil?" Simple answer: no. First, the Bakken formation is being drilled, see attached graph. It has been since at least 1971 through today. The single largest prohibition on recovering from the Bakken has been cost. Recovery from the Bakken has cost more than has been economically viable given available methods. Or more simply, crude from the Mideast, Venezuela, Mexico, and Canada has been cheaper. There has not been an incentive in the market. If one wants to point to causal factors: it’s cost and the market. (It’s similar to the single largest prohibition on traditional solar cells.) It’s disingenuous as well as counter-factual to make it a partisan issue. Would it end dependency on foreign oil? Hypothetically, it could (using the latest USGS values) for approximately 1 year, 2 months and 4 or 5 days (depending on which month.) 4.3B barrels of oil (the high end of technically recoverable estimate) sounds like a lot. It *is* a lot. The US uses on average 10M barrels of oil a day. We use *a lot*. How does technically recoverable reconcile with actually recoverable (produced)? Here’s a discussion of the Bakken formation, the geology, and recoverable oil. Does the email you received include any cost on recovery that oil? Technically recoverable is not the same as economically recoverable, which is not to say that the US, if that was a priority, could not choose to pay more if such an action was desired. Cheapest is definitely not always best. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

As the election nears, speculation on who Presidents may appoint to fill top positions increases. It’s a sport for hard-core authorized and unauthorized armchair policy wonks. The November 2008 issue of the ABA Journal features a pair of articles on potential cabinet level and other high level positions in an Obama Executive Branch or a McCain Executive Branch. Both also offer potential Supreme Court nominees as well. I’ve been speculating on former NavSec Richard Danzig as SecDef in an Obama presidency since early 2008 (at least). Was surprised at the Secretary of State suggestion – former Sen Sam Nunn (JD) is more likely nominee (if restricted to lawyers), imo. Sen Lindsey Graham is the SecDef suggestion for a McCain Executive Branch. That one seems plausible but not likely, imo. Robert Gates is a historian (PhD), so suspect that eliminated him from contention in the ABA’s article. There have been suggestions that he might be asked to remain regardless of which candidate wins in November. DHS - Frank Keating or Janet Napolitano? The latter might represent a shift to focus on immigration & borders for DHS. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Interesting question! Complexity of emotions that humans can exhibit - no. Neurological, biochemical and physiological behavior that suggests 'emotional responses' - yes. Varies highly across species. Elephants have been observed to mourn the loss of relatives or member of group, for example. To me, it suggests one needs to think about how emotions are defined. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I quite intentionally didn't try to make any points about Biden's comments. I tried to re-iterate in different words and explain the historical biblical and literary metaphors that [Tankbuster] found unfamiliar & odd. Perhaps I was unsuccesful in either of those attempts. One can dispute my translation. Or one can suggest different interpretations or make conclusions/points as Mike did. I disagree with the conclusion he suggests. Asking *either* of us for clarification is reasonable, imo. Questioning my translation, offering others, or make interpretations/conclusions are all reasonable & encouraged ... encouraged heartily! The vast majority of Mike's questions/comments are charged but fair ... in his exchanges with me that has always been the case. Regardless of the poster (& I include myself in this), reasonable & fair does necessarily equal valid or correct. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What set-up? He’s suggesting that he and Sen Obama realize that hard decisions, unpopular decisions will have to be made to deal with the economic crisis and move the country forward. Simple rhetoric and popular ideas (i.e., the 'bread & cirsuses' metaphor) are unlikely to be the type of policy decisions that will be needed. He expects that some of those necessary decisions will result in low poll numbers (“there” as in a lowing voter approval rather than high). Would you like me to choose two non-contextualized comments that I get to paraphrase by any two politicians to illustrate almost anything I want? Bet I can't do it? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur. Concentration of power in any branch (executive has been the current trend over the last 30 or so years) is of concern to me. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Actually the media treated Pres GW Bush and President Clinton (& President Reagan) largely the same when they replaced almost all of the US attorneys within the first 120 days of taking office. President Reagan replaced 89 of the 93 US attorneys in his first two years in office. President Clinton also replaced 89. President GW Bush brought in 88 new US attorneys in his first two years. Iirc, three or four of the remaining spots were vacant. The precedent was established by President Reagan. The commerical media largely treated Presidents Reagan, Clinton, and GW Bush similarly when the actions were done at the beginning of the term. The nine dismissed by AG Gonzales were among the 88 hired when Pres Bush took office. They were presumably already serving at pleasure of the President. The issue is not the right of the President to replace some or all US Attorneys at any time. No one doubts that he did. The issues rightly reported, imo, by the media were: Evidence that the attorneys may have been pressured to ignore crimes by members of the President’s political party while pressuring them to prosecute members of the opposition in conjunction with an election, i.e. favoritism in pursuing cases. Claiming falsely that the dismissals were “performance related” – the fired attorneys had positive reviews – when they were politically motivated. It is my speculation that if the reason for their firings were made clear from the beginning, there would have been much less attention, i.e,. don't lie especially when lawyers keep evidence to the contrary. Appearance of the historically independent US Attorneys as part of an independent, objective law enforcement executive branch, regardless of party being used for purely political reasons. Retaliation against US Attorneys who were attempting to exercise their authority fairly and objectively in accordance with their oaths of office. Use (some assert over-use) of new rules that allowed folks to serve as “Acting US attorneys” for long times in order to avoid the Senate Confirmation process. That's the 120-day rule. A more precise, imo, comparison would be to President Nixon’s “Saturday Night Massacre” of Justice Department officials as opposed to President Reagan, President Clinton, or President GW Bush replacing the US attorneys at the beginning of the term. Otoh, it does raise the question of whether US attorneys should be career federal civil servants rather than political appointees. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

It’s easy to be a cynic and to complain about “security theater” of commercial air travel; the Atlantic Monthly article -- “The Things He Carried” delicately balances the line between sensationalism of the absurd/exaggerations (e.g., the Pentagon is close but not “approximately 17 feet from National Airport) and highlighting real vulnerabilities created by well-intentioned policy. For those who travel frequently, much of what security-guru Bruce Schneir observes is almost like an announcement from the “US Dept of Duh”™. As always, Schnei¬er defeats (plays with?) security with style. Thought the interview with the TSA was interesting and insightful (incite-ful ?) The point: vulnerabilities will exist, we need to find a level of acceptable vulnerabilities. By focusing on “security theater” – requirements that superficially appear to being doing something – have we created new vulnerabilities? Is the $7B invested in TSA better spent somewhere else … like on intelligence, disrupting foreign terrorist cells, strategic communications, or repairing our own domestic infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc). A few excerpts appended below. VR/Marg --- ---- --- “If I were a terrorist, and I’m not, but if I were a terrorist—a frosty, tough-like-Chuck-Norris terrorist, say a C-title jihadist with Hezbollah or, more likely, a donkey-work operative with the Judean People’s Front—I would not do what I did in the bathroom of the Minneapolis–St. Paul International Airport, which was to place myself in front of a sink in open view of the male American flying public and ostentatiously rip up a sheaf of counterfeit boarding passes that had been created for me by a frenetic and acerbic security expert named Bruce Schnei¬er. He had made these boarding passes in his sophisticated underground forgery works, which consists of a Sony Vaio laptop and an HP LaserJet printer, in order to prove that the Transportation Security Administration, which is meant to protect American aviation from al-Qaeda, represents an egregious waste of tax dollars, dollars that could otherwise be used to catch terrorists before they arrive at the Minneapolis–St. Paul International Airport, by which time it is, generally speaking, too late.” ~~~ ~ ~~~ “During one secondary inspection, at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, I was wearing under my shirt a spectacular, only-in-America device called a “Beerbelly,” a neoprene sling that holds a polyurethane bladder and drinking tube. The Beerbelly, designed originally to sneak alcohol—up to 80 ounces—into football games, can quite obviously be used to sneak up to 80 ounces of liquid through airport security. (The company that manufactures the Beerbelly also makes something called a “Winerack,” a bra that holds up to 25 ounces of booze and is recommended, according to the company’s Web site, for PTA meetings.) My Beerbelly, which fit comfortably over my beer belly, contained two cans’ worth of Bud Light at the time of the inspection. It went undetected. The eight-ounce bottle of water in my carry-on bag, however, was seized by the federal government.” “On another occasion, at LaGuardia, in New York, the transportation-security officer in charge of my secondary screening emptied my carry-on bag of nearly everything it contained, including a yellow, three-foot-by-four-foot Hezbollah flag, purchased at a Hezbollah gift shop in south Lebanon. The flag features, as its charming main image, an upraised fist clutching an AK-47 automatic rifle. Atop the rifle is a line of Arabic writing that reads Then surely the party of God are they who will be triumphant. The officer took the flag and spread it out on the inspection table. She finished her inspection, gave me back my flag, and told me I could go. I said, ‘That’s a Hezbollah flag.’ She said, ‘Uh-huh.’ Not ‘Uh-huh, I’ve been trained to recognize the symbols of anti-American terror groups, but after careful inspection of your physical person, your behavior, and your last name, I’ve come to the conclusion that you are not a Bekaa Valley–trained threat to the United States commercial aviation system,’ but ‘Uh-huh, I’m going on break, why are you talking to me?’” ~~~ ~ ~~~ “To slip through the only check against the no-fly list, the terrorist uses a stolen credit card to buy a ticket under a fake name. ‘Then you print a fake boarding pass with your real name on it and go to the airport. You give your real ID, and the fake boarding pass with your real name on it, to security. They’re checking the documents against each other. They’re not checking your name against the no-fly list—that was done on the airline’s computers. Once you’re through security, you rip up the fake boarding pass, and use the real boarding pass that has the name from the stolen credit card. Then you board the plane, because they’re not checking your name against your ID at boarding.’ “What if you don’t know how to steal a credit card? “’Then you’re a stupid terrorist and the government will catch you,’ he said. “What if you don’t know how to download a PDF of an actual boarding pass and alter it on a home computer? “’Then you’re a stupid terrorist and the government will catch you.’ "I couldn’t believe that what Schneier was saying was true—in the national debate over the no-fly list, it is seldom, if ever, mentioned that the no-fly list doesn’t work. “It’s true,” he said. ‘The gap blows the whole system out of the water.’” Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Most commonly use IE but I like Safari a lot. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying