nerdgirl

I don't know if you intended it as such or not, but I think your concluding comment is just as relative -- if not moreso -- to much of the discussion in the "Should the US Negotiate with the Taliban?" thread. The US military excels at traditonal military operations. We have the best military in the world and the most sophisticated equipment. Traditional military operations and sophisticated weaponry are unlikely to yield success in asymmetric warfare. Especially the kind of long term success needed to reduce radicalization and foster stability in places like Iraq, Afganistan, the Islamic Maghreb (e.g., Algeria), or other parts of Africa (e.g., Tanzania - al Shabab & Al-Ittihad al-Islami and Uganda). ... prior thoughts on SSTR and here. We don’t do SSTR well, and we don’t train (most) of our uniformed military to do SSTR. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

A couple additional observations from the cited report that either resonated with me … &/or are something that I think need more widespread attention (the second one admittedly may reflect my experiential biases). (1) Middle of page 7 in section 6 “The Economy:” “The worst problem facing the economy is the “brain drain” of both intellectuals and experienced managerial talent which has either fled the country because of the danger and chaos of the past years--- or been murdered while trying to rebuild Iraq.” In late 2003 thorough 2004, I was involved with a program to ‘bring up to speed’ Iraqi university professors on topics that they largely had not kept pace with due to sanctions and that they specifically requested. A lot of different things happened with the program and security issues eventually forced changes in execution/implementation and duration – & this was in Sulaymania (Kurdish north), the “Berkeley of Iraq” – for us and for the Iraqis. GEN McCaffrey’s assertions mirror some of my observations then and subsequently. For all the criticisms of intellectual elites or whatever is the euphemism for “pointed headed” academics and intellectuals made here in the US, GEN McCaffrey’s comments illustrate the downside of not having those “pointed headed” academics and intellectuals. (2) Top of page 8 in the section 7 “The US Armed Forces” part d: “Many of the leaders are on their third or fourth combat deployments. Fortunately, it is my impression that the most effective Captains of the combat forces are staying with us. We are having greater challenges keeping the mid-career NCOs’ at grade E-6.” I’m familiar with retention concerns regarding O-3s, particularly those from the USMA; I was not, however, aware that E-6s were as critical a concern – or moreso as GEN McCaffrey seems to indicate. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur that’s it’s valuable analysis and recommendations from a highly credible source. Not sure that GEN McCaffrey's analysis exactly supports the conclusions being suggested here. Nor does it necessarily support analysis w/r/t the next administration. Rather it is critical of the policy choices of the current administration, particularly during the first years … and largely reflects criticisms and commercial media accounts from outside “The Building.” VR/Marg From p. 8-9 of the cited report 8. SUMMARY: a. The new Administration will have to think through their military options in the coming six months and devise a regional strategy for CENTCOM. General Petraeus will no doubt have a new concept to recommend for the rapidly deteriorating tactical situation in Afghanistan. The available US Army and Marine combat forces are insufficient to support continued robust presence in Iraq while also rapidly reinforcing our presence in the Hindu Kush with mountain infantry capable units. b. The likely strategic outcome will be a more rapid forced drawdown than desirable in Iraq in order to enhance combat power for Afghanistan. It will be a tricky balance--- but in my judgment we will pull this off successfully. Iraq will stabilize with the rapidly increasing power of the Iraqi Security Forces ---while we reinforce the inadequate NATO combat power in Afghanistan. c. It is hard to not be bitter about the misjudgments and denial of the DOD leadership during the first years of the war. It did not have to turn out this way with $750 billion of our treasure spent and 36,000 US killed and injured. • If we had employed adequate ground combat power in Iraq during the initial intervention with the needed Military Police units, Civil Affairs, Engineers, Cavalry forces, and reconstruction assets. • If we had not dismissed the Iraqi Army and thrown thousands of Saddam’s penniless officers out on the streets. • If we had not dismissed the Baathist cadres in the government, academia, the Iraqi Armed Forces, and business -- leaving the state rudderless. • If we had put together an international coalition with a clear UN mandate before we intervened in Iraq. • If we had not lost the support of the American people with misjudgments about Iraqi WMD programs and Secretary Rumsfeld’s subsequent, egregious misstatements of facts about the reality of the growing insurgency war on the ground. • If we had not issued illegal orders which resulted during the initial years in the systematic widespread mistreatment (and occasional torture) of thousands of Iraqi and Afghan detainees under our control. (This shameful situation has now been completely corrected.) • If we had made leadership of our allies to gain their cooperation a primary objective of our diplomacy ---and allowed the Secretary of State to take the lead instead of the Pentagon. • If we had understood the requirements of COIN operations earlier -- and not arrested and then turned into insurgents the thousands of Iraqi young men who we dragooned into detention centers with inadequate control. • If we had more effectively engaged Iraq’s neighbors---in particular the Saudis, Kuwaitis, Jordanians, and the Turks. • If we had seen the growing strain on our ground combat forces and expanded the US Army by 200,000 troops beginning in 2002. d. As the Saudis note with great sadness---we entered Iraq uninvited…but we must not leave the same way. It is essential for both US and Mid East security that we pull out of Iraq in a deliberate and responsible manner--- and leave a stable and functioning state. This is clearly within our capabilities. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What do you mean by negotiations? Do you mean day to day interactions with individuals outside of Kabul who may identify with/align with Taliban or with Mullah Omar, et al? Currently, the US does not have diplomatic relations with the Taliban. Before one can devise a plan for a solution, one needs to identify clearly and communicate the mission. What are we negotiating for? Is the mission in Afghanistan part of the GWOT, the main thrust of the GWOT? Is the mission solely limited to capturing the leaders of al Qa’eda? Is it wider? And does it include nation building? And who is responsible for SSTR? Currently it has largely fallen to the military due to lack of institutional capability as the US foreign service/USAID was decimated capacity-wise since the 1980s, as my favorite PhD historian noted in Kansas last fall. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Congratz to both of you! /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Agreed. Largely concur as well. I do think it’s indicative of the amazing ability of humans to find patterns in images. Back in 1999 I did a series of images for a 'science as art'-kind of art installation based on micrographs of crystals I'd made, called “Crystal Pteroglyphs.” I found all sorts of images from large Midwestern hay bales to whirling dervishes to a dragon to a critter in microscopic images of crystals. The collection starts with a diptych (side-by-side images) of a pterogylph from Homolavi Ruins of northern Arizona (“Being whole_prehistory” and “Being whole_circa 1999”). Found my own “alien spacecraft” & "Martian landscape" too.

So who would you recommend I take with me? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks Dan. Don't think there's anything with which I would disagree in those two statements ... other than maybe looking to Islamic Maghreb for radical Islamists these days. Would love to hear more of your stories and observations. Part of the issue for me is who or what really is the Taliban. As you and I know, "Taliban" means "student" in Pashto. As was done in Iraq, can the low-level and upwards to some point, folks who really just want stability be co-opted in something vaguely similar to the 'Sons of Iraq' groups? I think that kind of co-option is critical. Historically, terrorists groups rely on explicit and tacit support from the wider population. As the indigenous population moves against them, the terrorists group, generally, disintegrate/collapse (Tupac Amura, Red Cells), re-integrate in non-terrorist manner (IRA), or take over: How Terrorist Groups End (RAND, 2008). What if they don't agree to put down their arms or refuse to acknowledge the central or pronvincial authorities? I'm betting you've heard Pres Karzai referred to as "the Mayor of Kabul." Is there anything to suggest that scenario - historically or culturally? Or from a perspective of them being threatened? The Taliban is far from being faced a the Melian bargain of surrender or annhilation. Concur. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

... took me a minute ... So, how do you translate "punk" into Pashto? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That's kind of what I did w/what I received - donated to the Atlanta Catholic Worker House; it's a soup kitchen. Also donated to two political candidates. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I suspect what you describe may be a very different definition of "bad boy" than many of the respondants applied. Like others, I base the preference for "nice guy" over “bad boy” on the latter meaning “asshole” or “jerk” or "controlling." The former also doesn't mean "doormat" or "wimp" or "passive agressive." Inability to challenge me is the first thing that loses my interest. Ability to challenge me in a non-'asshole' way, (which admittedly is highly subjective,) is almost always the first thing that gets my attention ... & keeps it. But that's just me. 235#. I have no doubt that if he _wanted_, he could be a very effectively intimidating asshole. What initially attracted me to him was how kind he was and he asked interesting questions … when I spoke with him on the phone. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Three favorite books: PW Atkins Physical Chemistry – to understand how the world works from sub-atomic to astronomical. Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel – how human societies come into being and work, why some have power, and others don’t. (His most recent book, Collapse is on how civilizations fall apart, haven't read it yet.) Octavio Paz Selected Poems – because sometimes poetry is more important than ‘how’ and ‘why’. And "+2" or "+3" on Marion Zimmer Bradley's Mists of Avalon /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I think you’re selecting on the wrong variable. There’s no evidence of which I am aware that there have been significant physiological changes in the human brain over the last 100,000 years or so. Certainly hasn’t been over the last 400 or so years since the Scientific Revolution. If there was such a fundamental change in logic capability, there would need to be a concurrent change in brain cognitive capacity. Rather I would attribute the rise in apparent “logic” being due to rise in institutions and rise in capacity to record and transmit information. Otoh, over the last 10,000 years or so we’ve seen the rise of institutions, notably first cities. The rise of such basic institutions allow for segregation/separation of labor and allow for specialization that enables more rational planning, implementation, and execution. That doesn’t mean it’s ‘high logic’ by early 21st Century standards; nonetheless it took more logic than prehistoric hunter-gatherer groups were capable of to build the pyramids (Egyptian and Mayan), Angkor Wat, etc. Of course, one of those institutions that arose with civilization was organized religion. I would suggest that the other significant independent variable is capacity to record and transmit data. More information can enable more “logical”/reasoned/informed decisions. Starting with invention of writing (~7000 years ago), that capacity was significantly accelerated with movable type, the vacuum tube, the transistor, and age of silicon. The singularity? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Oooh ... I like that site! Lots of FOIA obtained data. Thanks. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Largely concur. Thanks for quoting Hamilton. To me, it's an example of problems with the idealized doctrine of original intent. Sometimes what is the thought of as the late 20th/early 21st century vision of original intent is not supported by the primary data ... otoh, sometimes it is. E.g., another perenial SC 'favorite,' here I would lean toward a more literalist reading of 2nd Amendment *as well as*/*in addition to* cognizance of changes in views on standing armies. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The beltway rumor-mill is a flutter … from the last day or so … Obama Leans Toward Asking Gates To Remain at Pentagon for a Year Gates Signals He Would Stay On More on former SecNav Danzig: Potential Defense Secretary has focused on management issues A few hours ago, it was announced that former Sen Sam Nunn will lead Sen Obama’s defense transition team: Obama Taps Former Georgia Senator for Defense Transition Team VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Good catch. On the FP site, the top picture is not the recently released one; it’s not the one that’s enlarged below it. It’s an another picture that shows what the shadows should look like, e.g., as you note in the top picture Kim Jong-il’s shadow is at the same angle as the soldiers surrounding him. Conversely in the bottom (enlarged picture), it’s vertical. One also doesn’t expect foliage that green & full in North Korea in November. If you go to the BBC site, you can see the full image (no trees) and inconsistent vertical shadow by “Dear Leader” relative to the angled shadows of surrounding people at the wide angle. Admittedly it is confusing, hence why I linked the BBC too. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What do you think? The Taliban sheltered and directly supported al Qa’eda in their planning of the attacks of September 11th; are currently engaged in armed insurgency against the Afghan government; and are killing US uniformed service member, allied uniformed service members, and other civilians (US and Afghan) ... nevermind militant advocacy of an oppressive, religious-based government. During an October talk at the Heritage Foundation GEN Petraeus, Commander CENTCOM, suggested that the US should consider engaging in discussions. [Full video available to listen/watch yourself; the discussion w/r/t negotiating with former Iraqi insurgents and current Taliban insurgents is toward the end, ~an hour into his talk] GEN Petraeus said, “I do think you have to talk to enemies” ***. He emphasize that it was necessary to have specific goals and strategies a priori for discussion and highlighted the importance of doing one’s homework and understanding the “the decisive element – human terrain” a priori [read: anthropological, social, cultural, historical] to understand the motivations and strategic culture. Throughout, GEN Petraeus emphasized that reaching out to insurgent groups, including some “with our blood on their hands,” as he did advocated for Iraq through application of counter-insurgency strategy and operations. More from UK’s International Herald Tribune: “Petraeus sees possible value in talking to Taliban, and from NPR: “Gen. Petraeus Supports Talks With Taliban.” (Line that made me chuckle: “only the military could have a 2-page SOP to determine what is or is not sectarian violence.”) I’m very skeptical for a number of reasons, largely driven by historical experience. Through June 2001 the US negotiated with Taliban representatives, including at very high levels on counter-drug inititiatives and gas pipeline proposal, e.g., Sec State Colin Powell and the US gave the Taliban $113M in 2000 and $43M in 2001 as part of counter-drug activities. Clearly those efforts did not do anything to limit the Taliban’s support of the al Qa’eda – both explicit and tacit (hiding) support. I haven’t seen anything substantive to suggest that the Taliban movement has significantly changed. What I wrote/cited here (especially the lower half on “What Petraeus Understands.” Afghanistan is an order of magnitude if not more complex than Iraq. I heartily agree the counterinsurgency (COIN) theory applies. Afghanistan has never had a strong central government; it’s a-historic to rely on/expect a strong central government model The argument for negotiating with the Taliban, in addition to that which GEN Petraeus eloquently describes regarding application of counter-insurgency theory, may represent a re-rise/re-assertion of classic realpolitik – deal with who’s in power, a la former SecState Kissinger -- as a master of realpolitik -- had little to no interest in regime change or pro-democratic movements. Realpolitik prioritizes working with regimes/governments that cooperate beneficially with the US in support of US foreign policy goals, e.g., Latin America policy of the 1970s supporting less than upstanding representatives of free democracies, such as General Pinochet’s regime in Chile, with the oppressive military junta in Argentina, Uruguay, etc. So what do you think … and why? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Whether you knew it or not ... yes, there is one school of thought that states asserts exactly that. For tightly coupled systems of sophisticated technologies, normal accidents theory states that accidents will happen. It was originally developed to explain the Three Mile Island disaster and has subsequently been applied to Space Shuttle Challenger and Columbia disasters, commerical aviation disasters, the chemical industry, marine transport, and other high-risk, high-technology endeavors. The main alternative is high reliability theory. Yes, I have heard of that. Part of my job has always been to balance safety, reliability, and cost. The only way to make something 100% safe is to not make it at all. High reliability theory, like that employed by USN Nuclear submariners (which is the classic case), does maintain that with proper training, management, & safety culture 100% reliability can be achieved. I tend to be of the 'normal accidents' school of thought, but 'true believers' in HRT assert 100% safety is possible. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Whether you knew it or not ... yes, there is one school of thought that states asserts exactly that. For tightly coupled systems of sophisticated technologies, normal accidents theory states that accidents will happen. It was originally developed to explain the Three Mile Island disaster and has subsequently been applied to Space Shuttle Challenger and Columbia disasters, commerical aviation disasters, the chemical industry, marine transport, and other high-risk, high-technology endeavors. The main alternative is high reliability theory. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Not as far as I am aware. Good point. Good questions to which I don't know the answer. If it was released 2 years ago, the bar would be much higher. Today it's something that makes, me at least, go "hmmm"? And chuckle a lil at the similarity to the July Iran incident. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

You're correct that sarcasm is frequently difficult to read over the internet ... perhaps that's a lesson that applies across the board, eh?

Do we have a true democracy? Or is it a republic? The closest large-scale democracy as I see it is the Californian ballot initiative process. Does the underlying ethical issues of a knowledge-test matter for a true democracy change when one thinks about a Republic? We do have additional requirements for elected representatives. Should there be a knowledge-based test for representatives to the republic? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

So is there an ethical/moral/jurispridence reason underlying your objection to a minimum knowledge-based test ... or is it based on historical patterns? Historically the tests/barriors have not usually been knowledge-based but rather phenotype (race), genotype (sex), or class (land-owning or freeman). Are we condemned to repeat history? Or do you see some underlying ethical issue with disenfrancisement that trumps the potential for even the most apparently and rigorously vetted reasonable test? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

We all remember Iran’s PhotoShop misadventure with the cover-up of the misfire of one of four Shahab-3 missiles during this summer's Payambar-e Azam 3 (“Great Prophet 3”) military exercises. Well, there’s suggestion that the recently released images purported to show North Korea's “Dear Leader” are faked causing new rumors about the state of Kim Jong Il’s health. UK’s The Times apparently first questioned the veracity of the photo, the BBC did the image analysis, and Foreign Policy also reported on the story. PhotoShop as foreign policy tool, eh? ... VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying