nerdgirl

Guessing this was the article, yes? It also notes that "The other teen [not the one that the other alleged "hit" was made on] said he initially didn't know whether to take Forde seriously. In September, he said, Forde had made a similar statement about a hit, only that time the target was a girl." For the sake of argument, even if Mr Forde was "joking," is threatening to kill students an appropriate thing for a teacher to joke about? Probably not, imo. Others may disagree. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur. Both wrong. Differently wrong. W/r/t this incident, however, there is nothing that suggests that the teacher was making sexual advances toward a student. "Georgia teacher Randolphe Forde accused of putting a 'hit' on his student" "A Clayton County Police report says that Forde pulled a student off a school bus on October 9 and told him he 'would pay him to kill the victim.' Forde then wrote the 16-year-old victim-to-be's name on a piece of paper ... "... the two [teacher & student] also argued in class on or around Sept. 30, and Forde threatened to 'hit him in his 'effin mouth.'" The local school board made the firing decision that was reported in the AJC article I quoted previously. The criminal case is still to be resolved afaik. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That should be Fallout 3 expansion pack mission. Hee-hee. I like it. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

You're very right w/r/t conventional terrorism. I suspect that the folks at BAS are thinking about nuclear or biological terrorism rather than conventional terrorism, but I might be wrong. Otoh, a few years back I remember being at a meeting in San Francisco, at which one of the speakers, Chris Chyba, challenged a number of folks who were on a panel with him, including former SecDef McNamara (i.e., Chyba’s a bit of an iconoclast), that much of the world doesn’t consider nuclear terrorism a real threat. For much of the global south, for example, there are other problems (disease, clean water, corruption) that are much more threatening and critical and at the same time, they don’t perceive themselves as being likely targets as Washington and Moscow do. Last fall, I was at Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) – it’s like the IAEA & NPT-executing body but for chemical weapons – one of the most interesting conversations, among many (that I get to define as subjectively interesting) was with delegates from South Africa and Philippines. Along with a UK staffer, we were talking about differing perceptions internationally of the relative risk of biological weapons. The South African noted that he considered chemicals a much bigger threat than biologicals. The Philippine delegate concurred. The situation is (generally) the inverse in the US and UK. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Interesting observation. I hadn't really thought about that. Both are important, particularly concerns regarding Pakistan's nuclear arsenal; it would surprise me if it was the driving factor. My speculation is all those will still be factors that could push for moving closer to midnight, along with DPRK's 2nd underground test, Iran's announcement (begrudgingly) of the Qom enrichment facility, end of START without a follow-on treaty, CTBT still not ratified, lack of movement forward on the IAEA nuclear fuel bank (as a way to limit proliferation risk associated with nuclear energy 'renaissance') and failure of the Copenhagen treaty. As factors for moving further from midnight, the "road to zero" movement to reduce nuclear stockpiles and all those factors that the Nobel Prize Committee cited for awarding Pres Obama the Peace Prize. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Allegedly because the student was gay. Article from the Atlanta Journal Constitution here. "The Clayton County school board voted to fire a teacher accused of ordering a hit on a student, officials said. "In a unanimous vote, the nine-member board decided to uphold the recommendation made in December by a tribunal to terminate Mundy's Mill High School teacher Randolphe Forde. "Forde was arrested and charged in October with making terroristic threats against an 11th grade student in one of his classes. Authorities allege that Forde asked whether the student was gay, then offered $50 to a classmate to 'put a hit' on the student." What business is a student's sexuality to a teacher in a algebra class? Forde was a substitute math teacher. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

60 Senators would also have to approve it. Something I'd consider rather unlikely. 60 senators have to approve a treaty? Where would I find some info on this process. You caught me unaware on this one. Or, what is the process called so I can google it All treaties have to become the law of the land by being approved or ratified by the US Senate. It's Article II, section 2 of the Constitution. It also means that any international treaty, law, convention, or agreement to which the US is a State party is also the law of the land in the US. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I find the invocation of the PC argument w/r/t the Fort Hood shooting to be interesting and speculate that it is partially a distracter. A politically popular one to blame, yes. But a small, if not very small, factor, imo. My strong speculation is the reason that Hasan was not removed from Army has much, much, much more to do with the shortage of physicians in the US Army, especially psychiatrists. “Political Correctness” is, imo, being used as something of a distracter to shift attention from recruitment and retention problems. And they aren’t new or exclusively due to the OIF/Iraq War. OIF/Iraq (in particular) & OEF/Afghanistan has exacerbated them, however. I agree w/LTG Schoomaker’s, who I respect tremendously – served on a review board (Biomedical TARA for the DoD-acronym-inclined ) with him when he was 1-star, comments in that Stars and Stripes piece, in principle. Between the op tempo and overwhelming work schedule, it isn’t that someone issued a memo ... it’s that given that context and the environment, it makes it less difficult to ignore problems because, among a whole number of other things, focusing on them means the already overburdened folks left have more work to do. Dealing with the shortage of psychiatrists and other trained medical specialties is, in many ways, a more difficult problem than blaming “politcal correctness”; it’s also more systematic in repercussions, which makes it a tougher problem. I don’t know the total long-term solution. One piece, which I’ve advocated previously, I want military service to be seen as a first choice option for more. I want ROTC and Jr ROTC in San Francisco, Santa Monica, Austin, Evanston, Boulder, Ann Arbor, Madison, etc. One of the reasons for the origin of the draft in early 20th century US was a concern that the ‘best & brightest’ would join the military and be killed in WWI. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Interesting discussion. Thanks.

Would be fun if I was closer (actually I think I will be closer, just not that close, on the 6th - Phoenix ). Altho' I'd probably root for New York's Bravest. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

On Thursday, the hands of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientist’s Doomsday Clock will be moved. The clock has been at 5 minutes to midnight since 2007. The closest to midnight it’s been is 2 minutes in 1953 after the US & USSR first detonated/tested thermonuclear weapons. “The Doomsday Clock conveys how close humanity is to catastrophic destruction--the figurative midnight--and monitors the means humankind could use to obliterate itself. First and foremost, these include nuclear weapons, but they also encompass climate-changing technologies [this was added in 2007; some folks disagreed w/its inclusion-nerdgirl] and new developments in the life sciences [i.e., genetically engineered biological weapons or unintentional pathogenic organisms-nerdgirl] that could inflict irrevocable harm.” A timeline of the clock’s movement from its inception in 1947 can be found here. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists was founded in in 1945 by scientists and engineers from the Manhattan Project. So what do you think – does the apparent nuclear program of Iran, DPRK’s two alleged nuclear tests, ending of START, and the renaissance in nuclear energy (w/accompanying reprocessing risks) mean the clock should be moved closer to midnight? Or why not? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

DC – Mayor Fenty and Chief Lanier Announce Lowest Number of Homicides in Four Decades "Mayor Adrian M. Fenty and Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier announced today that the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) closed out the year 2009 with the lowest number of homicides since 1966. "While the national trends are showing homicides reductions at 10 percent, Washington, DC saw a 23 percent reduction; more than double the reduction of other major cities. In addition to the dramatic reduction in homicides, MPD’s homicide closure rate continues to increase also bucking national trends for a second year. “'Thanks to the MPD officers who put their lives on the line every day, the District of Columbia became a safer place to live in 2009,' said Mayor Fenty. 'I commend Chief Lanier and her team on their hard work, and look forward to building on their gains in 2010.' “'I could not be more pleased with the hard work put forth by the members of this department,' said Chief Lanier. 'I truly believe that our dramatic reductions are the result of intelligence-driven community policing and our focus on repeat violent offenders; which has been greatly enhanced through the use of technology,' "MPD’s strategy is focused on two key principals; focusing on repeat violent offenders and building strong partnerships with the members of the community;" Some of the strategies and tactics employed, like blocking off streets in certain parts of town (NW [correction: NE] & SW) as examples, have been extremely controversial. The initial data does support the new mayor's ideas and his new police chief's execution. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks! Have another one. It's still cold here. Thanks for posting pics from where you are. Oh my! That's a lot of snow! By comparison - snow in ATL. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Your post reminded me of a favorite from when/where I grew up: Stroh's Blue Moon ice cream.

Probably not surprising to anyone, I think that's too simple of an answer. Not disagreeing completely. But I think there's more to it. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

With my limited English skills, I only do understand that "09/11 was pre what we have today..." - so you still have it today? And "then again", the system completely failed. Which one, rushmc? What is "You system of people ......"??? Your post is not easy to understand. Trying my best but, no chance to understand you at all edited for typo I understood what he wrote. Rather than seeming to make it personal (as I read it), e.g., "no chance to understand you at all ," he might respond if you just asked for clarification? Thanks!

I doubt 9-11 was what he meant. The case of Richard Reid, the shoebomber, however, does have multiple parallels to Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab beyond incorporating explosive material into clothing items. One question that terrorism-wonk type folks have been asking over the last week is why that incident (Reid) didn't prompt changes beyond just forcing travellers to take off their shoes? Part of the answers is that it did, but not in ways that were critical w/r/t the 'underwear bomber' case apparently. Part of the answer is that w/Reid's case, the overwhelming emphasis in responses/changes was to TSA rather than the IC or the whole-of-government coordination. One can speculate a whole lot on the reasons behind that. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Maybe a little part of it is who said it in each case too? Just a little? Perhaps - although I submit that 'go to waste' is not exactly a neutral statement. Maybe a lil' more than perhaps? And maybe not - I'm pretty certain that I know my own thoughts better than anyone else. Of course, no one of whom I am aware suggested you didn't. That doesn't mean that one can't acknowledge that occasionally a little tiny bit of one's reaction to to something might have more to do with who said it than just the content. And sometimes that's because a person is more abrasive or fails to communicate well. Well, I guess now we know where the original quote came from. Yes, Milton Friedman, who was the 'father' of Chicago-school economics, as I had assumed you knew, yes? Altho' as I wrote previous wrote, I'm betting he borrowed the idea from someone else, something like President Reagan borrowed John Winthrop's verbiage about a 'shining city on a hill' which was adapted from Biblical line and that probably came from near Eastern tribes before that. Profound ideas tend to get repeated. Dpeends on which ones you are referring? For example, politically the Troubled Assets Relief Program is still a popular kicking ball; most economists (whose writing sounds more like Friedman's than Emanuel or Roper) now recognize how close to global economic collapse we were, however, and the crucial role of such actions in preventing a complete collapse, e.g., from the conservative Economist "For many people on the planet, the Great Recession was not all that great. "That outcome was not inevitable. It [the avoidance of a "Global Depression"] was the result of the biggest, broadest and fastest government response in history. Teetering banks were wrapped in a multi-trillion-dollar cocoon of public cash and guarantees [i.e., the TARP in the US]. Central banks slashed interest rates; the big ones dramatically expanded their balance-sheets. Governments worldwide embraced fiscal stimulus with gusto. This extraordinary activism helped to stem panic, prop up the financial system and counter the collapse in private demand. Despite claims to the contrary, the Great Recession could have been a Depression without it." Of course, some will still argue to the contrary, which is always their right. And that really wasn't an example of change, it was prevention at the last possible moment. Legislative change to financial regulation is still to be passed. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Maybe a little part of it is who said it in each case too? Just a little? Perhaps - although I submit that 'go to waste' is not exactly a neutral statement. Maybe a lil' more than perhaps? Another Chicago-school economist, Paul Romer also more succinctly summarizes Friedman's idea to the succinct “a crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” Perhaps 'go to waste' is a more succinct & operational way of conveying Friedman's more academic way of saying "until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable"? Friedman is famous (in some circles) for advocating taking advantage of a military-political crisis (the overthrow of the democratically-elected government in Argentina) to force through economic changes that were very much opposed by all but an elite few. Sometimes those changes are for the better. Friedman was cognizant of history. Power holders & power holder wanna-bes throughout history have recognized the opportunities presented by a crises. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Maybe a little part of it is who said it in each case too? Just a little? /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

I was in Moscow for my 30th birthday. I had the best birthday cake of my life. Don't know where the folks that hosted my birthday dinner got it, but it was amazing. The closest flavor that I would associate was orange creamsicle. Had a rose water lassi at a Middle Eastern restaurant in Dearborn Michigan that I've never found an equal to. Perfect balance of sweet and tangy with the unexpected rose water. Luv mango lassis but that rose water one was the best. Ted Drewes frozen custard in St Louis is pretty awesome. (Much, much, much better than Imo's pizza, imo.) /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Mr. Emanuel is paraphrasing, perhaps more succinctly, a concept Milton Friedman espoused: In interviews, “Now, you never have real changes unless you have a time of crisis. And when you have a time of crisis what happens depends on what ideas are floating around, and what ideas have been developed, and thought through, and are made effective. And I believe the role that people like myself have played in the transformation of public opinion has been by persistently presenting a different point of view, a point of view which stresses the importance of private markets, of individual freedom, and the distorting effect of governmental policy. That may not persuade anybody, in one sense, but it provides an alternative when the time comes that you have a crisis and people realize that you have to change.” And in his writing, “Only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable.” (p. ix) Suspect that Prof Friedman borrowed the idea from someone else as well. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

That has been one of the arguments w/r/t eradication of large game species in the Americas, e.g., Wooly Mammoths. But is it a bigger impact, i.e., what are the relative numbers of poaching versus subsistence hunting? (Putting aside the other potential drivers for the moment.) Trying to find some data, rather than conjecture (as much fun as the latter may be ): here’s one study that asserts 300 gorillas a year killed by poachers in central Africa – don’t know the veracity of that report. This story states that “A big reason why hunting used to pale next to habitat destruction is that as recently as the 1990s animals were killed mostly for subsistence, with locals taking only what they needed to live.” “The problem now is that hunting, even of supposedly protected animals, is a global, multimillion-dollar business. Eating bushmeat ‘is now a status symbol,’ says Thomas Brooks of Conservation International. ‘It's not a subsistence issue. It's not a poverty issue. It's considered supersexy to eat bushmeat.’” This study from 1994 notes 62 gorillas killed in one year for subsistence (table top p 152) . The authors of that report *do* cite subsistence hunting as a cause of low density of gorillas in the area surveyed (p. 157-158), an area in which they state does not have other confounding factors (deforestation, poaching, civil war), so that may be the strongest argument for the argument that subsistence hunting is a threat. Of course, low density does not equal extinction. This study, from 2009, states: “Hunting is the major driver of large mammal decline in Central African forests. In slowly reproducing species even low hunting pressure leaves spatial gradients with wildlife density increasing with distance from transport routes and human settlements. We conducted an ape survey in the mountainous Moukalaba Doudou National Park, Gabon, to evaluate whether potential population gradients would emanate from the three human population centers in the region or the villages surrounding the park. “The results indicate that Moukalaba’s ape population is more impacted by commercial than subsistence hunting and suggest that park management should focus conservation efforts on the human population centers.” In that area poaching was found to be a bigger factor. Laughed at the recommendation too -- it's not the gorillas that are the problem but the humans. Still not sure … and am still skeptical that subsistence hunting is the primary or even secondary threat to survival of gorilla populations. Like most of these issues, imo, it's not one simple factor that is all to blame or is the 'silver bullet' solution. Some can be much more important tho.' But I’ve learned some new stuff about the different factors threatening gorillas, so that’s cool. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Habitat elimination tends to focus animals into pockets, rather than wide expanses, making it very easy to hunt an entire enclave into nothing. Now once you get a species down to this sort of dire strait, not hunting them may just prolong the end, but certainly it prevents any chance of a rebound. Doesn't that argument suggest that the driver is not subsistence hunting? It seems to be at what level one wants to pinpoint the problem -- when eradication of a species or sub-species population appears to be inevitable -- or identifying the drivers/factors that get to that point before eradication appears to be inevitable. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Someone who’s not an unauthorized armchair expert recently published in a rather unusual place a pretty scathing critique of intelligence from operations to analysis to linking it to strategy that, imo, highlights some of the system-community-wide problems of the intelligence community. It focuses on another situation, but one that has, imo, parallels to the problems brought forth w/r/t the unsuccessful Christmas Day terrorist event. Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan by MG Michael Flynn, who is currently active duty general officer in the US Army in Afghanistan. It was unusual because active duty officers don’t usually publish reports through Washington think-tanks, which the Center for A New American Security (CNAS) is, and MG Flynn has received some criticism and support, concurrently, from his superiors: “Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said [SecDef] Gates found Flynn's analysis ‘brilliant’ and his findings ‘spot on.’ “But Morrell said Gates had ‘real reservations about the general's choice of venue for publication.’ “Flynn's report was issued on Monday by a private Washington think tank, surprising Pentagon officials. Some saw it as a breach of the established military chain of command and an unusually public flogging of intelligence agencies that Flynn is meant to lead in Afghanistan.” There are outlets for publishing, like Parameters or Military Review, but something like MG Flynn’s report would more typically go through ISAF or CENTCOM Public Affairs. One can speculate on lots of reasons why the report’s authors chose to do what they did … & lots of folks are. MG Flynn and co-authors biggest criticism is that intelligence collection is being overly prescribed in focusing on one narrow area. “Eight years into the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. intelligence community is only marginally relevant to the overall strategy. “Ignorant of local economics and landowners, hazy about who the powerbrokers are and how they might be influenced, incurious [the choice of the adjective ‘incurious’ struck me - nerdgirl] about the cor¬relations between various development projects and the levels of coopera¬tion among villagers, and disengaged from people in the best position to find answers – whether aid workers or Afghan soldiers – U.S. intelligence offi¬cers and analysts can do little but shrug in response to high level decision-mak¬ers seeking the knowledge, analysis, and information they need to wage a successful counterinsurgency.” Why is that kind of information important? That kind enables the intelligence or “the information and solutions that foster the coopera¬tion of local people who are far better than outsiders at spotting insurgents and their bombs and providing indications and warnings ‘left of boom’ (before IEDs blow up).” If one goes in arrogantly believing one knows what one’s doing because that’s the way it’s always been done or whatever that doesn’t benefit anyone. Among other critiques are ones that keep coming up in discussions of intelligence community reforms: over-reliance and over-emphasis on classified sources and disregard or dismissal of open-source information, aka OSINT: “This vast and underappreciated body of information, almost all of which is unclassified, admittedly offers few clues about where to find insurgents, but it does provide elements of even greater strategic importance – a map for leveraging popular support and marginalizing the insurgency itself. “In a recent project ordered by the White House, analysts could barely scrape together enough information to formulate rudimentary assessments of pivotal Afghan districts. It is little wonder, then, that many decision-makers rely more upon newspapers than military intelligence to obtain ‘ground truth.’” One of the report’s recommendations is to have intelligence collectors act more like journalists operationally. There’s also recognition of a need for greater understanding and real-knowledge beyond 3-second sound bites: “The format of intelligence products matters. Commanders who think PowerPoint storyboards and color-coded spreadsheets are adequate for describing the Afghan conflict and its complexities have some soul searching to do. Sufficient knowl¬edge will not come from slides with little more text than a comic strip.” Reminds me of the words of one of my favorite retired Marines, TX Hammes on “Dumb-dumb bullets: As a decision-making aid, PowerPoint is a poor tool. Commanders make decisions. Hypothetically, intelligence should be used to help make the best decision. If the intelligence is ‘dumbed down’ too much, it can be more harmful than beneficial. (And I write that as a full-on member of the PowerPoint tribe.) In the DoD and national security community, PowerPoint has become the primary format through which knowledge is communicated. That’s just the way it is. And PowerPoint isn’t all bad, it’s a tool (like guns). What is critical is how the user/human uses it. /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying