nerdgirl

Thanks for starting a thread on this. When I was listening to this story on NPR this morning, the part that stood out to me and struck me as odd was the assertion/rationalization that release of the tapes could cause “grave damage” to US security due to potential disclosure of identities of interviewers. Something that could cause “grave damage” to the US is the definition of Top Secret. Is General Hayden suggesting that the CIA can’t control material at the Top Secret or higher level? I hope not! There's no FOIA exemption category for "stuff that embarrasses us." Tapes and transcripts can be redacted from TS to Secret or lower. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

If Massachusetts has passed hate crime legislation (?) and if the crime (assault) is found to be motivated by racial hatred, then yes, it could be considered a hate crime. Who’s arguing it’s not? On Tuesday, a white woman and a white man were assaulted while riding on a Baltimore public bus by nine black middle school students. This case is being investigated as a hate crime. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

In some ways … but perhaps not in the way one might initially read. Civil servants recognize that partisan control of the Executive Branch and Congress will change. What doesn’t change is the Executive Branch versus Congress. That’s the real divide in DC … not Republican-Democrat. Flippantly, Congress thinks it’s their money that the Executive Branch should do with as Congress dictates; the Executive Branch thinks it’s their money that Congress won’t give it to them. Everyone thinks that they're doing the 'right' thing for the taxpayer and the nation. Civil servants have the tacit knowledge, the experience, and the personal networks to get things done. That’s a hugely underestimated value, in some ways similar to still-active low-D number skydivers. Political appointees – that is, the Executive branch leadership – are sometimes like a 200-jump wonder (w/that excitement), sometimes like Lew Sanborn (w/wisdom and experience), and sometimes like a whuffo … but they have the decision-making power. Depending on the level, policy is signed off by political appointees or Senior Executive Service members (equivalent to a General Officer in civil service). The usual quip is “you never sign what you write and you never write what you sign.” And let’s not forget that in DoD, many of the offices are supported by uniformed folks. Heck, in many parts of DoD, it’s *much* easier to get a military billet than a civilian billet; trying to add a civilian billet in OSD is almost impossible. Adding contractors is the easiest. There also are pseudo-political alliances as far as Soviet studies scholars (i.e., Cold War mentality) versus those who aren’t (post-Cold War). In some Executive Branch agencies these differences are more pronounced, one might speculate. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

"Not only does God play dice, but he sometimes confuses us by throwing them where they can't be seen. "All the evidence points to him being an invetrate gambler, who throws the dice on every occasion." — Stephen Hawking

The biggest difference between a journal like Nature and popular sources is primary data and analysis versus secondary, tertiary, quinary (

In our new era where newspapers are at risk of becoming extinct, it seems that they run a lot of free advertisements masquarading as articles. The choice of the specific technique mentioned (SPECT) & the conspicuous absence of functional MRI struck me as curious. … Amen’s clinic has been profiled on Quackwatch.com: “A Skeptical View of SPECT Scans and Dr. Daniel Amen.” “For about four years (2002 to 2006), the The Amen Clinic's home page stated: ‘Everything starts and ends in your Brain-Soul connection. ‘How your brain and soul work together determines how happy you feel, how successful you become, and how well you connect with others. The brain-soul connection is vastly more powerful than your conscious will. Will power falters when the physical functioning of the brain and the health of your soul fail to support your desires, as seen by illogical behaviors like overeating, smoking, drug and alcohol abuse, and compulsive spending. ‘It is the aim of The Amen Clinics to provide instructional programs and materials, evaluations and medical treatment where necessary to help you to understand and direct your mind to enhance your relationships, your work, and your health!’ “The Amen Clinics charge $3,250 for a ‘comprehensive evaluation,’ which included the patient's history, two SPECT scans (concentration scan and baseline scan), a physician consultation, and a 30-minute treatment follow-up appointment. Follow-up scans after treatment are $795 each.” ---- ---- ---- ---- Does this sound like quasi-Scientology to anyone else? So yep, the author is hardly free of conflicting financial interests. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Stepping back, in some ways many (not all) pieces of this whole thread have a sense of rationalization in the context from which it originated: Focus on “thoughts” (frequently in the proverbial ‘heat of the moment’) rather than what one does/doesn’t do with them and how one chooses to express those thoughts. It’s not about normatives – what one should or shouldn’t think (‘thought police’) – or say/write “infringing freedom of speech” – it’s about choices. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes & no. Yes, in many ways, it was a coincidence. Diplomatic efforts started in 1999 (as far as has been publicly acknowledged) and were largely spurred by the success of sanctions that had effectively isolated Libya and were impacting (negatively) the Libyan economy. Much has also been speculated regarding Gadafi's concern with the future of Libya and succession. He's a rationale actor. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes, correct. LEU is non-weapons grade for use in nuclear power. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Asking you some questions I posed recently in another thread ... Do you think that new technologies being used as a substitute or short-cut – that’s a little too pejorative of a characterization but hopefully the idea is conveyed – for good training and for maintaining professionalism in LEO? I don't think there's evidence to suggest that's the intent ... but it may be an unintended consequence. Instead of valuing professionalism and judgment that comes from training and experience, is there a trend to short cut with technology? I hope not but ... Do you think that tasers (& other non-lethal/less lethal [the NIJ term]/"weapons which do not cross the death barrier") may/will/have lead/led to an escalation/increased tendency to use of less lethal force? Or lowering/lowered the proverbial bar to use of force when previously control of the situation was dependent on the professionalism of the officer? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

The unclassified version of the NIE suggests that sanctions were largely responsible for spurring the Iranian leadership to choose to shut down the nuclear enrichment program in fall 2003: "Iran may be more vulnerable to influence [via diplomacy, sanctions, & inducements] on the issues than we judged previously." "Our assessment that Iran halted the program in 2003 primarily in response to international pressure [emphasis nerdgirl] indicates Tehran's decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs. This, in turn, suggests that some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressure, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways, [i.e., carrots *&* sticks, emphasis nerdgirl] might—if perceived by Iran's leaders as credible—prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program." According to the unclassified NIE, the alleged single defector’s (Ali Rez Asgari) assertions – I’m guessing that NewsMax is trying to make a parallel to Curveball – were confirmed/corroborated by the IC through signals intelligence (SIGINT, i.e., intercepted telephone calls): "one of more than 1,000 pieces of information [emphasis nerdgirl] cited in footnotes to the 150-page classified version of the document." Other sources allegedly included “photographs taken during the media [i.e., totally open western photo journalists] visit this year… were reviewed by intelligence analysts who concluded Iran continues to face ‘significant technical problems’ in using the facility to enrich uranium.” Open source analysis - yeah! There's an implicit acknowledgement that a huge 'elitism' barrier may be crumbling, i.e,. acknowledgement by the IC that open source data is valuable! I know at least two of the people mentioned in the NewsMax article personally … & they aren’t the ones whom Timmerman lauds. Under Fingar’s leadership (who now heads the NIC – the folks ultimately responsible for NIE & PDBs), State INR was correct on the analysis regarding the aluminum tubes, which became the now illustrious footnote to the Iraq WMD NIE: Analyze this: inside the one spy agency that got pre-war intelligence on Iraq—and much else—right. There are lots of pieces of the story with which I’m having trouble and have yet to form my own firm conclusions w/r/t the role & how to increase the value of IAEA inspections and transparency (not limited to the nuclear realm), multi-lateral negotiations, the role of the removal of Saddam Hussayn/OIF in Iran’s leadership calculus (if any), if the 2005 NIE report was wrong when it claimed with “high confidence” that Iran had a active nuclear weapons program, why should the 2007 NIE be any more credible when it claims that Iran cut its nuclear weapons program in 2003? What changed? One hopes better intelligence data & less stove-piping w/in the IC … result of following recommendations of the Intelligence Commission & reorganization of the IC/creation of the DNI? As far as low enriched uranium (LEU), which is (very) generally 5-20% enriched uranium, Iran does not have to stop that program. That’s their right under NPT. Iran’s plans to produce LEU were so widely known that Iran invited IAEA to inspect its uranium mines back in the mid-1990s. It’s the HEU (~ >90%) that is of concern ... as well, as pre-2003 allegations of indicators of enrichment in between those levels (for example, ~30-80%). Would that suggest they were inadvertantly doing *really* well in their LEU ... or suggest that they were (past tense) doing poorly at their HEU attempts? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

No. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Unclassified NIE Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities

Interesting argument. I struggled to disentangle centralization, which can be autocratic and non-capitalistic/non-socialist, from the comments about socialized health care. Might there be a little bit of selection bias in your cases and your interpretation of the cases to the US? Contrast the result in Venezuela to that in recent election in Russia (autocratic, non-US-style capitalist and non-socialist)? Or the trend among recent elections in other South American (e.g. Morales, de Silva) and Central American countries to more socialists leaning candidates? Mexico's Calderon (who's more right) tried to do something like Chavez did, via attempts to disband the Federal Electoral Institute (the independent electoral watchdog), e.g, "Hobbling Mexico's Democracy." I don't know what was the outcome there. In contrast to France, the Poles defeated the sitting Law and Justice Party Prime Minister in Poland and replaced him with a more left-leaning candidate, who less inclined to having missile defense-associated sites located in Poland. How about Norway's unprecedented coalition of Labour Party, Socialist Left Party, and Centre Party? Concur here ... and would assert that we are struggling to stay ahead with our entrepreneurial form of capitalism ... vs the autocratic/oliogarchic capitalism of Russia & many African states, the state-oriented capitalism of most of western Europe, and 4th form, which I can't remember ... sorry. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Concur heartily. I largely read John Rich's response in the prior thread to be intentionally exaggerated (a la John Bolton) to make a point w/r/t the language you chose. ----- ---- ----- ---- Mmmm . . . I'm not so certain about that. That would mean that Stephan King is a hypocrite because he doesn't kill people and Tom Clance is a hypocrite because he's hasn't blown anybody up. Fair enough. Exceptions for good and bad art excluded. I doubt, however, that you would disagree that the public figure who claims to be strictly against sex outside of marriage and publicly criticizes others for not adhering to his/her belief system ... but turns out to have 5 simultaneous extra-marital affairs has a problem with reconciling words, actions, and beliefs, yes? Pragmatically, true; is that the standard that you to advocate? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

There seems to be another component as well - what you say (or in this medium, what you write). Are what you do, what you say/write, and what you think in harmony/agreement/connosance? When those three are dissonant, someone (generally, not specifically) may be called 'hypocrite.' VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

[tongue planted in cheek] You know you're a Republican if you can't stand your gay uncle, but you invite him to your son's wedding because he's rich. You know you're a Democrat if you can't stand your rich uncle, but you invite him to your daughter's graduation because he's gay. You know you're a Republican if you support George Bush's plan to put a man on Mars. You know you're a Democrat if you want that man to be George Bush. You know you're a Republican if you think Colin Powell might make a good President, if he weren't black. You know you're a Democrat if you think Colin Powell might make a good President, if he weren't conservative. You know you're a Republican if you think every Democrat is a closet Communist. You know you're a Democrat if you think every Republican is closeted. You know you're a Republican if you wouldn't mind if the Commonwealth of Massachusetts seceded from the Union. You know you're a Democrat if you wish the Republic of Texas had never become a state. You Know you're a Republican if you start off on third base and think you've hit a triple. You Know you're a Democrat if you hit a single but believe you deserve a triple because the other team got one. You Know you're a Republican if you believe the U.S. Constitution clearly supports strip mining. You Know you're a Democrat if you believe the U.S. Constitution clearly supports strippers. [My favorite!] You Know you're a Republican if you can't fathom that Abraham Lincoln was actually a Republican. You Know you're a Democrat if you can't fathom that Abraham Lincoln was actually a Republican. Copied from “The Specious Report,” which excerpted from: You Know You're a Republican/Democrat If... /Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

What do you think about refocusing the Dept of Energy laboratories to focus on alternative energies across the spectrum? The common mantra that I’ve heard is that they’ve “lost their mission.” Let’s give ‘em a new one! Instead of fighting over who’s going to design the RRW or trying to be DHS or DoD labs. We also get a lot more that’s part of our 21st century society from petroleum than just oil and gas to burn up in combustion: solvents, inks, lubricants, paraffin wax, petroleum jelly (used in medical products) sometimes blended with paraffin wax in medical products, asphalt, petroleum coke (used for carbon and graphite products, such electrodes, anodes, and liners), chemical feedstock (used for plastics, pharmaceuticals, etc.) VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Thanks for the links – particularly to the CPL O’Connor’s affidavit. There are clear cases where use of non-lethal/less lethal force is warranted, and ones in which it clearly is not. The tests are the ambiguous cases, of course; although, after reading CPL O’Connor’s own statement, it’s harder to make a case for the being warranted use of force, imo. CPL O’Connor repeatedly maintains that the (e.g, bottom p.8 of the affidavit) use of force was “necessary.” His estimation of his own demeanor as “very direct” is discussed (bottom p.9/p.10) and should be contrasted with the discussion of General Orders and Codes of Conduct (p.15) on patience, that “In the face of extreme provocation, we’re [law enforcement officers] are supposed to maintain a patient demeanor.” CPL O’Connor repeatedly admits (e.g., p. 14) that he should have exercised multiple other options: “I’m definitely going to talk longer [before using a taser] next time, and let the calls [for additional officers] hold.” CPL O’Connor explains/offers contextual material/excuses/rationalizes his behavior during the traffic stop because he was “edgy” from not having eaten (p. 11, top). At one point there is a discussion of the CPL O’Connor’s assertion of “empty hand active [emphasis nerdgirl] aggression” by the driver. Initially, he asserts that was the verbal ‘resistance’ that the driver displayed. When the IAG interviewer points put that CPL O’Connor also indicated/checked “verbal resistance aggression,” CPL O’Connor then suggests that the first part was when “he reached his hand up towards me, right before I tased him” (p.10). “Aggression” or self-defense or surprise or automatic reflex? It’s hard to reconcile CPL O’Connor’s narrative with the video. CPL O’Connor acknowledges handling prior comparable incidents differently – without escalation to use of less-lethal or lethal force – before he had a taser. The NIJ just closed a solicitation for more “less lethal” technologies. Does this suggest an escalation to use of less-lethal force or lowering the proverbial bar to use of force when previously control of the situation was dependent on the professionalism of the officer? Perhaps. Are new technologies being used as a substitute or short-cut – that’s a little too pejorative of a characterization but hopefully the idea is conveyed – for good training and for maintaining professionalism in LEO? I don't think there's evidence to suggest that's the intent ... but it may be an unintended consequence. Instead of valuing professionalism and judgment that comes from training and experience, is there a trend to short cut with technology? I hope not. VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Did you really mean to imply that if someone else doesn’t agree with you that person is closed minded? Yes. Yes, there are unknowns and undiscovered. Science is the methodology. New instrumentation as you describe will allow us to extend our understanding within the physical realm that has been limited by our biological construction. We can't "see" or "hear" (w/out technical imaging equipment) in the X-ray or microwave spectrum but those parts of the EM spectrum were there before they were "discovered" and understood. Actually string theory is currently being more hotly contested than anthropogenic climate change, e.g., “String Theory Smackdown” and “String Theory, With No Holds Barred” and “ 'The Trouble with Physics' Oxford Debate.” The first two … well, sort of. Why does life exist? Because carbon is small … & I’m not being completely flippant: electronegativity – can relatively easily, but not too easily, make & break covalent bonds; electron hybrid structure – can make lots of different types of bonds, with different strengths, and in different orientations. Also shift to an oxidizing versus reducing (hydrogen) atmosphere (which has recent scientific contestations, not sure how credible or dubious merit), distance of Earth from Sol, etc. What is self-consciousness? Or even consciousness? Phenomenologically, yes that still debated – because it’s philosophy. Cognitive sciences are offering neurochemical and neurobiological clues to understand how the human brain, with its 10^10 neurons & 10^14 neural connections (probably an underestimation), constructs consciousness. It’s not a very romantic or idealistic way to look at it … & it removes some of the ‘specialness’ of humans on which much of Judeo-Christian faith is predicated. And then there’s AI. Neither are total mysteries. The nature of the soul is the realm of theologians, mystics, madman … and old lovers who still find desire, bliss, and solace in each other’s arms.

Congratulations Mike!

From Forbes.com Top Businesses Demand Climate Action Excerpted text below. Couple thoughts: Does recognition by global corporation mean the climate change is about money & the new industries that could be created … or is it about survival of the species that inhabit the planet and the current free market structure? I hadn’t planned on paying much attention to the Bali meeting – might now. The potential role/impact of these globalized commercial firms on a potential international treaty/convention piqued by attention. The biotech industry was one significant (but not the only) factor in the failure of the addition of a verification protocol to the Biological and Toxins Weapons Convention (aka BWC in US); otoh, the chemical industry was a significant (but not only) factor behind the US ratification of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Is this Freidman’s “the World is flat” hypothesis playing out or … ? VR/Marg ---- ----- ---- ---- ---- ----- “Some of the world's top business leaders are demanding that international diplomats meeting next week come up with drastic and urgent measures to cut greenhouse gas pollution at least in half by 2050. “Officials from more than 150 global companies - worth nearly $4 trillion in market capitalization - have signed a petition urging "strong, early action on climate change" when political leaders meet in Indonesia. “The hastily prepared petition drive, coordinated through the environmental office of Britain's Prince Charles,[huh? emphasis nerdgirl] is signed by leaders from mainstream powerhouse companies such as Shell UK, GE International, Coca-Cola Co., Dupont Co., United Technologies Corp., Rolls Royce, Nestle SA, Unilever, British Airways and Volkswagen AG. “The petition is aimed at the United Nations conference in Bali, convened to draft a new environmental treaty to replace the Kyoto accord, which expires in 2012. “Contrary to the argument that mandatory pollution cuts would harm the economy, the business leaders' petition says ambitious emissions reductions would "create significant business opportunities." “In the three weeks that the business leaders circulated the petition, primarily in the United Kingdom, Europe, the United States and Australia, more than 80 percent of the giant firms contacted agreed to join in, said petition coordinator Craig Bennett, of the University of Cambridge's Programme for Industry. “In January, the CEO's of 10 major U.S. companies urged President Bush to support mandatory industrial greenhouse gas emission cuts. The White House is against that policy. Since their January plea, the industry group, the United States Climate Action Partnership, has grown to include 27 of the world's largest firms. “Other companies signing the British-based petition include Nike Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Virgin Group, Barclays PLC, Gap, Nokia, Pacific Gas and Electric, and the Rupert Murdoch-owned News Corp., which runs the conservative Fox News Channel. “’There are voices that you may not normally expect to be heard on this particular issue," Barrington said. "It just shows how concerned we are about the issue.’” Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Already here. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Okay, so what is the evidence for/against and what efforts are underway w/r/t eliminating voter fraud in Venezuela? Why evidence is there that past elections should or should not have been verified as transparent and open? What have been the problems with the Carter Center Elections Monitoring groups? Do the estimated/guestimated voter fraud numbers exceed the electoral margin? VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying

Yes, we’ve got strongly opinionated and smart folks here – that’s what makes it fun! It does sound like you and LouDiamond have varying degrees of experience, expertise, and interest in the region that motivates you to be more aware than some others, perhaps. I can relate a lot about incidents by the Grupo de Comandos Revolucionarios, Operacion Argimiro Gabaldon (Argimiro Gabaldon Revolutionary Command) in 1970s Venezuela and other South American communist, socialist, and other unspecified left-wing terrorists groups (including some that pushed for environmental reforms! ), but that’s a different area of knowledge … so I have some ignorance and some expertise. I fully concur w/Lou’s call for being cognizant of history. Given that … I have 2 holistic & 2 specific interests in South America’s longest democracy: 1. Acknowledging that there are significant dissimilarities in the government structure, history, and culture – from my perspective (owned as that), what led to the rise of Chavez in Venezuela was largely (a) due to outside economic factors that (b) led to pronounced wealth disparity among the citizenry. Acknowledging that Caldera inherited a lot of problems, what did Venezuela get while he (& his predecessors) was in office? Inflation and increased wealth disparity (concentration in a narrow group of the citizenry). Again the parallels are not pristine and trends in wealth disparity are much more pronounced in Venezuela, but are there lessons that the US should be learning? I think yes. 2. How does the US govt (in general, not any specific administration) chose foreign policy interests? Democracy is not easy … & letting out my cynical side, I’d quip democracy is the right to be as stupid as you want to be. 3. Involvement of Venezuelan government under Chavez with Columbia’s FARC. There’s been a fair bit of radical Islamist activity over the last 15 years in the Tri-Border Area (further south), which is about as ungoverned as Pakistan’s western territories. No, FARC is not radical Islamists & Venezuela is not ungoverned, is this a new model for South American state/sub-state activity? 4. Rhetoric w/r/t wanting nuclear capabilities … thus far stated to be purely for domestic energy. Chavez with the bomb or nuclear capability is not something I want ... nor de Silva (Lula). Heartily concur! Hopefully we can learn from them too. Here in SC? No. Full invasion? No, and not currently as far as I can tell w/in the USG. Was some military or CIA action discussed while Roger Noriega was Asst Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs? That’s speculation at this point … There are circumstantial and other documents suggesting that some action was contemplated. For example, see the redacted for public release State OIG report, which found that: “it is clear that NED [the National Endowment for Democracy], Department of Defense (DOD), and other U.S. assistance programs provided training, institution building, and other support to individuals and organizations understood to be actively involved in the brief ouster of the Chavez government [emphasis nerdgirl].” Otto Reich (another former Deputy or Deputy Asst Secretary of State) in April 2005 The National Review wrote w/r/t to Chavez that the “pressing specific challenge is neutralizing [emphasis nerdgirl] or defeating the Cuba-Venezuela axis.” VR/Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying