billeisele

Vaccination and NPI's (masking, cleaning, distancing etc) You must be watching different events than me. I'm not seeing masks or distancing. Didn't see either at the World Series last night. 1) They are dropping actually 2) 57% is enough to get rates to drop as long as it's paired with other NPI's (like masking.) To get 100% back to normal you'd need to get that to 80-90%. You may be correct. The data I used was calendar 2021. The current death rate is back down to what it was in late August but still higher than what it was from March 10 - August 22. The current death rate is 6X higher than what it was in early July which was the low for the year. Let's hope the decline continues. ?? They do recognize natural immunity and other treatment protocols. Google monoclonal antibody treatment, for example How is natural immunity being recognized? I'm not seeing it mentioned in the restrictions like the newly released travel guidelines. It would have been difficult for anyone to disagree with MAB treatments, it can work even in extreme cases. Other countries are recognizing treatment protocols that the US still doesn't mention. The EU is a good example on natural immunity acceptance and treatments. If what was published is correct they have dropped the need for vaccination cards.

Dang, your PPo2 must be slipping.

Was simply using COVID as an example of what is wrong in Washington. It's ridiculous that the current issues are split along party lines. Bad actors are on both sides. As for COVID...the US stats are: 13.7% of population has had it, 0.22% (734,752 people) of population have died from it. Of interest is the US 2020 and 2021 annual data: COVID cases 6.21% for 2020, 7.38% for 2021, and deaths 0.11% for 2020, 0.11% for 2021. Obviously the 2021 data is not a full year. This shows an increase in (reported) cases and an identical chance of dying (so far this year). This assumes that the CDC reporting is accurate. Too many variables to draw definitive conclusions but it does raise some interesting questions. With college football in full swing and no one wears masks or distances, why is there not a notable increase? Post game alcohol cleansing? If 57% of the population is fully vaccinated why are the death rates holding steady? Is that COVID fatigue and people are out exposing themselves? Why is the US refusing to recognize natural immunity and other treatment protocols especially since the EU has done so? One could spend days digging thru data. Of interesting note is the declining death and infection rates in India where vaccines are in short supply and Ivermectin is widely used. This is WHO data. Over the last 30 days the death rate is 0.06%, the US is 1.36% and CAN is 0.3%. The case rate per 1,000 is 0.42, the US is 7.8 (18.6X higher), and CAN is 2.7%. This could simply be reporting, who knows. Roll on, don't croak.

It's evident that this is political, as are other things going on in DC. It's difficult to believe that elected officials with supposed intelligence can have opinions that fall strictly on political lines. Until that stops all of us are at the mercy of the political party in charge. Sad. Multiple studies have indicated that natural immunity among past COVID-19 patients is strong and similar or superior to the protection from COVID-19 vaccines. Some experts have pushed for federal health officials to take natural immunity into account when issuing recommendations and rules. But federal authorities currently recommend virtually everybody get a vaccine, including the recovered, arguing the strong protection gets even better when those people have a jab. Harshbarger, though, says a number of Americans object to getting a vaccine while pointing out that natural immunity to other diseases is accepted as an alternative to vaccination. She and 10 other members of the House of Representatives late last week introduced the “Natural Immunity Is Real Act,” a companion to a Senate bill from Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), Mike Braun (R-Ind.), and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska). It would require federal agencies to “acknowledge, accept, and agree to truthfully present, natural immunity pertaining to COVID-19 pursuant to promulgating certain regulations.” The congressmembers are presenting the bill as President Joe Biden’s administration works to finalize a regulation that would force private companies with over 100 employees to mandate presenting proof of COVID-19 vaccination or have staff members be tested weekly for the disease. There is no opt-out for natural immunity. Other mandates are already in place on the federal, state, and local level that have led to some Americans losing their jobs. “I’ve read some of the studies that show that natural immunity, in a lot of ways, can be more effective. And I know there’s one study that shows that the percentage of protection is even better than two doses of the vaccine, in some cases. There is ample scientific data out there that show that. Think about it. We have immunity against measles, and smallpox, and they accept that. Why won’t they do it for COVID?” said Harshbarger, a licensed pharmacist since 1987. “Too many medical leaders are refusing to publicly recognize what overwhelming data has already shown—protection afforded to individuals with natural immunity is real, robust and durable,” Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.) added in a written statement. “Denying science only contributes to existing confusion, misinformation, and mistrust among the American people. This bill helps restore trust and faith in the Public Health system, while maintaining our fight against COVID-19.” The other co-sponsors are Reps. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), Chris Stewart (R-Utah), Bill Posey (R-Fla.), Mary Miller (R-Ind.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), and Chip Roy (R-Texas).

The current number is 679,000. The challenge is that the actual cause of death wasn't (at least in the early months) verified and the experts agree that many were classified as COVID that most likely weren't COVID. Regardless of the number it's too many. Based on the CDC stats one has a 12.9% chance of getting COVID and a 0.21% chance of dying. It would be interesting to see the stats recalculated for calendar 2021. If the presumption that many of the most vulnerable died in 2020 is correct then the numbers for 2021 would show less risk.

These two charts from the CDC show info on US COVID deaths and all deaths. Interesting.

It 's challenging when there are qualified experts that disagree, and when there is specific evidence that supports the opposing opinion. Some rely on "their" experts and quote what they say. Others rely on experts with opposing statements. It's especially irritating when folks are attacked and dismissed for having a different view.

Hey Jerry - It's interesting info. There are a couple informative posts below mine that provide quality info on N95s and discuss/refute his claims. Education is a good thing. The mask info is especially helpful. The two problems I see with masks is how they are worn (incorrectly), and the N95s with exhaust ports. I've always said that one issue with COVID is the lack of consistent and quality info and guidance from the government and other "so called" experts. This guy is obviously passionate about what he believes. Some of it is correct, some of it is not. If there was full disclosure and more clarity from "our leaders" it would help to manage COVID, and it would lessen the believability of these type folks. There are plenty of folks that are confused by the differing opinions and will easily point to this type passionate speech as accurate. One specific point is disclosure of the data on side effects from the vaccine. Lack of easy access to that data can lead some to believe it's being purposefully hidden. It would also be helpful to have easy access to the list of pre-existing conditions that could make taking the vaccine risky. People are scared of COVID and some are scared of the vaccine. The lack of a quality consistent message, and easy access to data doesn't help that.

thanks for the good info

A six minute listen from a practicing physician specially trained in immunology and inflammation regulation. He refutes many common beliefs about managing COVID. - some of the CDC recommendations are contrary to the scientific evidence, some of the studies providing that info were sponsored by the CDC - you can't make respiratory viruses go away, they circulate all year long, they can not be filtered out, COVID has animal reservoirs so it can't be eliminated like smallpox - vaccination changes nothing, it does not make one immune - masks don't work, respiratory viruses are spread by respiratory particles and the particles can easily pass thru the mask - treatment with commonly available inexpensive medications work - no vaccine stops infection, vaccinated people usually have lessened symptoms or don't have symptoms but they shed pathogens, they become the source of spread - vaccines will not make COVID go away - Vit D levels of 25 or greater significantly reduce your risk - people that had COVID get no benefit from a vaccine, no reduction in symptoms or hospitalization rates, and suffer 2-4X the rate of side effects if vaccinated afterward As a minimum this should make one wonder.

Good news for those with immune system challenges. Interesting that they call it the CCP virus (Chinese Communist Party). "the agency [FDA] said the drug combo can now be given to high-risk groups as a measure after exposure to prevent progression of the disease." FDA Authorizes Antibody Cocktail as COVID-19 Prevention Treatment (theepochtimes.com)

Exactly, and that's one of my main dislikes of the solar companies in my area. Have a friend that did solar. He needed more attic insulation, and to remove the incandescent lighting. The solar company sized the system for the existing house then they "offered" to do the insulation and lighting. They also installed a powered attic vent fan. If the attic is properly insulated the vent fan isn't needed and actually can cause problems. Four problems. The solar was sized for energy usage that no longer existed, they charged almost double what it should have cost to do the insulation and lighting, and the attic fan. On the lighting - everything was converted to LED. I luv LED but putting it in a closet or storage area where the light is rarely on is not suggested. If he had done what billvon suggests, and not put expensive lighting in areas where it's almost never used, the payback on the system would have been years quicker.

Jerry - We may have crossed paths at a DOE event. There are many great examples of how well efficiency works. In 1990 I bought a 1987 house, not bad construction but they missed the simple stuff (relative to energy use). Luckily it was a crawl space home with good attic access. I sealed the wiring and plumbing penetrations, and did a few other simple things to reduce infiltration. The prior owners were elderly and just 2 of them. We were a family of 4, presumably using more hot water, more laundry, more TV and more plug in devices. The consumption went down 22%. The one unknown was their thermostat setting. It was a 2-story house with 2 HVAC units. 10 years later the units were replaced. We used a gas pac downstairs and a heat pump upstairs. The two major changes were the increase in EER/SEER and reduction in the upstairs unit of 1/2 ton because it was oversized. Amazing, another 30% decrease in consumption. The upstairs unit was the trick. 2 ton on 1600 sq ft., but used a 2.5 ton air handler, set the fan on low speed. That thing easily controlled the humidity and it was quite comfortable at 77/78 degrees. Oversized units were a common problem on the houses I audited. Typical HVAC guy knew that a bigger unit cooled the house and they wouldn't get called back. This is one system that most homeowners know nothing about. After controlling infiltration, insulation is key. Foam insulation is the new thing and it works great, one reason is it 100% stops infiltration. But it's expensive. It also adds structural integrity to the house. I'm not yet sold on foaming the roof deck because that doesn't allow the shingles to cool off by transferring heat to the attic. We'll see about that in a few years. If shingles start failing early that will by why. I'm now in a house with a Spanish style tile roof. It's surprising how cool the attic is and how low the consumption is. On geothermal, we got heavy into that. Great idea if the cost of the piping was reasonable. I may still be "the guy" that has installed the most geothermal units in SC. Did about 1,800 of them. Mostly in houses but some commercial like gyms, apartment complex, theaters, churches. We did a military housing complex and that type bulk installation gets some good pricing in pipe installation and equipment. We used vertical wells. Brought drillers from OK and TX. It was master metered and had demand data so it was easy to monitor consumption. The reduction was 40+%. Closed loop is the way to go. Vertical is expensive unless one is in an area where the drillers are accustomed to doing it. Horizontal is great. Even better if one has a backhoe with a narrow bucket. Great for rural folks. The equipment is standard price. With this tech it's important to understand payback and how the tech works.

Interesting research coming from Israel on the difference in immune response between male, female and age, and the difference between those that had COVID and those that took the vaccine. The one definite is there is a lot we don't know. Israeli research finds COVID-19 antibody levels differ between men and women | The Times of Israel

Exactly. Energy efficiency is the least expensive method to save money. I've had customers ask me about solar and when auditing their home it needs insulation, ventilation, infiltration mitigation and other standard items. All of which are significantly cheaper and more effective than solar. Ignoring that advice they go for the sexy solar solution. So dumb. It is surprising how much the utility bill will decline just by doing the basic stuff.

He worked in a statewide system and at the end of his career was the acting Director. He was the Deputy Director for a few years prior to that. He was stating what he knew from first hand experience. Another statement was, "You'll most likely see the death rate decline as the most vulnerable die off." My point on that comment was it would be interesting to see the data for a period like 2021, presuming that many of the most vulnerable would have died in 2020. The stats we've been discussing are data from the start of the problem. They show a 1.7% death rate of those that had COVID, and 0.18% of the overall population. Yes on the flu comments. While it may be possible, it's difficult to believe that flu deaths were almost zero. No question that COVID is the primary cause of many deaths. The unknown question is, of the total deaths reported as COVID, how many weren't primarily COVID but from other causes where COVID "pushed them over the edge." Regardless of that number, the chance of dying from COVID, if one is otherwise healthy, is quite low, and lower than the overall statistics. Yes, some parts of the world are taking, what we consider, drastic measures. In the case of India, wonder if deaths are occurring in high density poor areas with almost no hygiene? No doubt there are COVID deaths not being reported. Russia and N. Korea certainly aren't reporting.

Will probably see a combination of storage technologies. At home, local and regional. This is much like we see with solar. Storage is one step but reliable, safe and economical point source generation the another. That's where small modular reactors come into play. If that becomes feasible that is also a game changer. The grid will be there, but if the technologies above come into play it will be quite different.

Good morning. So these two doctors have differing opinions or experiences. No need to argue that. What is interesting is that there are historically reliable stats on deaths from various causes. In 2020 there was a substantial decrease in deaths from cancer, heart disease, flu and just about everything else that people die from. Draw your own conclusion. I try to stay away politics on this issue as I don't see it as a blue or red issue. I also try and stay away from the minority fringe groups like antivaxxers. Follow the money is right. Phizer is certainly doing well with 2nd Q earnings of $8 billion (up 59%) and expected to hit $35 for the year from vaccine sales. Wonder why the MDs aren't promoting healthy habits and immune boosting? Yeah, not much money in that. The data refutes your statement that the odds of death are ~2%. That data includes the old, frail, those with significant pre-existing health issues and those that died from something else but had COVID. The CDC reports that approximately 90% of the severe COVID patients had one or more underlying health conditions. It would be interesting to look at the current data, let's say, starting in 2021 and recalculate the numbers. Bottom line is if one is relatively healthy, and they get COVID, the odds of death are markedly low. The PCR test can't determine the strain, it requires a DNA test. They are doing sampling (about 750 a week on new COVID cases) and extrapolating the data. The CDC estimates that 80% are Delta. Dr Peter McCullough is a cardiologist, principal faculty member in Internal Medicine at TX A&M U Health Sciences Center, and Vice Chief of Medicine at Baylor U Med Center. He has over 3 dozen peer reviewed articles related to COVID 19 treatment protocols. He stated that at least half of the new COVID infections result from injection failures. He's done extensive research on COVID. The CDC is not tracking that data. I know a guy that early 30's has been vaccinated and has COVID. All this type stuff makes the message difficult to believe. There was a Navy ship with 3,800 vaccinated folks on board. A little over 100 got COVID. Not a huge percentage but the point is it wasn't reported by the media. That type data is being ignored in favor of the media hype. What a mess.

I copied it from a post I made elsewhere. They were my words. Didn't want to have to retype everything.

The plan is to make up the losses with volume, or you know, that thing.

Bill - the source article is a little confusing. Seems that most of the generation is from natural gas with much of it coming from the NE-ISO, not from in-state generation. I agree with Wendy that decentralization would be nice. The point being that the grid is still needed thus those pesky wires, complex combination of transformers, controllers, SCADA, trucks, people, etc., and the ongoing expense of making the grid operate. The various forms of storage are good for short duration, some are very short. The point source solar systems work when the resource is available. They have about 30% solar availability which is just slightly less than in SC. What they also have is high electric rates, at ~ 20 cents/kWh, lucrative incentives, net metering and quite aggressive REC sales and values. That makes large scale solar quite lucrative. Combining all that gets them a payback of less than 10 years on a typical system. In SC the electric rates are 10-12 cents and the incentives are much lower. The payback is in the range of 8-10 years for large scale solar to never for residential solar (some residential paybacks are better but most are terrible). One item of ongoing concern, and one that is a tangled mess to understand, is incentives and subsidies. No doubt the existing system is subsidized. It would be a great PhD candidate project to examine all the federal, local, tax, incentives, subsidies, and cash flows, to untangle that info. I'd luv to see the real numbers without that stuff. Once energy storage, SMR's or some other technology becomes economical then the conventional grid won't be needed. That can then shift a ton of grid-expense money into the "new way" of electrifying stuff. It's coming.

Had an enlightening conversation with a retired public health doctor. He said that almost everyone that died in 2020 was classified as a COVID death if they had, or were suspected to have had, COVID. All the old people that had cancer, heart disease, or anything else that old people die from were classified as COVID deaths. There were virtually no flu deaths or deaths from those common causes in 2020. He said, "all those people were going to die anyway, they weren't killed by COVID." The death stats are inflated at least 30% maybe 60-70%. If you take that into consideration then the risk of dying from COVID is actually less than a tenth of a percent. Looking at the US government reported stats: Population 328 million, covid cases 33.8 million, deaths 604,252. That equates to a 10.3% chance of getting COVID, 1.7% chance of dying if you get it, and 0.18% chance of dying from it in the US. Certainly these numbers would be worse without vaccines but no one really knows. The lack of credible info and outright lies creates mistrust. There are a high percentage of people in the US that don't want to take a chance with their health. They see that, to some degree, the vaccine isn't working. They see the misinformation and lies, and that breeds mistrust. They see the negative outcomes that some are experiencing from the vaccine. They understand the stats and see that the risk of a negative outcome from COVID is less than 0.1%. These same folks are doing other things to stay safe.

Ms Wendy - when the renewable isn't working where do they get power from?

Harnessing tidal energy and ocean currents has a ton of technical challenges. Some can be overcome with money. Seems that it's always a question of economics. It's will be interesting to see the long term results.

Jerry - I'm right there with you, amazing things happening. On a side note, a friend of mines grandmother died this week at 103 years old. It's hard to imagine the changes she lived. Not just tech but culture, wars, famine, disease and everything else non-tech. But on the tech side to live at a time when there was no such thing as electronics and then be able to have everything with a small pocket sized device. Would have luved to have asked her about that. Was waiting to see your input, always enlightening, thanks. Seems that the tech exists next will have to be better economics.