PrairieDoug

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Everything posted by PrairieDoug

  1. PrairieDoug
    JT - I got into this thread simply to respond to Squeak's claim that the "statistical chance of death does not go up the more times you jump." I just wanted to clarify that even if the chances of your dying on any single jump don't change (they are independent events), for any given person the chance of a fatal accident increases the more they jump. That does not mean the probability is the same for everyone or that we can reliably predict the odds for a particular individual. We only know that, for each of us, there is a greater chance of dying if we make 10,000 jumps than if we make 10 jumps. The above statements are basic statistical truths, not opinions. Doug
  2. PrairieDoug
    Huh? All I said was the probability of an accident increases the more you jump, ignoring the benefits of increased currency. That in no way implies that skydiving will necessarily result in death. The probability of a fatal accident each time we jump is so small that indeed people can make many thousands of jumps without dying. It's also possible (though very unlikely) to go in on your first jump. Both of those possibilities are completely consistent with a statistical analysis. That's exactly what statistics are good for. "Predicting" the past isn't very enlightening. Doug
  3. PrairieDoug
    You are correct that the probability of H on any single toss does not change, but it's also true that the probability of at least 1 H does increase with more tosses. From this simplistic standpoint, jumping more does increase your odds of an accident. In the real world, though, this is at least partly offset by the fact that jumping more improves skills and judgment. Doug
  4. PrairieDoug
    Exactly! That statement alone is worth at least a couple of the hours I've burned on dz.com recently. Doug
  5. PrairieDoug
    Here's a link to an article from the Business section of today's Washington Post on the 180 day proposal: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/04/AR2007060401789.html The column states that "virtually everyone in the industry supported the change, including manufacturers and material suppliers, pilots, skydivers, smoke jumpers and riggers, who do the actual packing." There are a couple of glaring factual errors. USPA membership is listed at 3,500 and freefalls are reported as occurring "from 1,200 feet at 150 mph." Doug
  6. PrairieDoug
    Sergio - You seem like a good guy, and from this more detailed description I can see where you were coming from with your original post. I sometimes have an annoying tendency to get a little self-righteous, which in this case was compounded by the experience of watching a family member get steamrolled by colon cancer. However, that doesn't justify my public criticism of you and in retrospect I should have just let it go. Best wishes for med school and many safe skydives. Doug
  7. PrairieDoug
    Now that - coming from Funks - really is funny. Doug
  8. PrairieDoug
    The OP sounded like a 6th grader who just left a sex ed class. Getting the "giggles" at inappropriate times is understandable, but finding a rectal exam so "hilarious " that you gotta write a post about it is truly childish. Maybe I am "overserious" - Lord knows I've been called worse - but I stand by my comment. Doug
  9. PrairieDoug
    I hope you grow up before you become a doctor. Doug
  10. PrairieDoug
    I base my equipment selection not just on what I can get by with if everything goes according to plan, but also what will help me get out of a jam. Executing emergency procedures requires accurate altitude information under conditions where every second is precious and judgment is subject to error. Doug
  11. PrairieDoug
    Damn, I hadn't counted on any canine competitors! Oh well, 2nd place won't be so bad.
  12. PrairieDoug
    Reading this thread reaffirms my strong belief that it's idiotic to seek medical advice from people who have no professional training. To the OP, please keep working with your doctor to find a treatment strategy that's effective for you with minimal side effects. Doug
  13. PrairieDoug
    Oh yeah, Selena, I'm lined up all right. In fact, I think it's only fair for me to notify my skydiving brothers that I've got the Cabana Boy contest locked up. I still encourage them to enter for entertainment value, just don't harbor any illusions of winning.
  14. PrairieDoug
    For clinical depression with a biological component, "thinking like a soldier" is simply not effective by itself. However, I agree that being determined to move forward is part of the solution, in combination with whatever treatment is recommended by a medical professional. That's based on personal experience. Doug
  15. PrairieDoug
    Stan is 60???
  16. PrairieDoug
    I love the "age-neutrality" of the sport. There's a terrific crew of hardcore jumpers in their late 50s-early 70s at Chambersburg. They are a blast to jump with and show no signs of slowing down. Doug
  17. PrairieDoug
    Well done. I get more out of the experiences of people who have to overcome obstacles than those who are natural wonders from the start. Psychological/mental hurdles can be the most challenging... it sounds like you are on the way to putting those behind you. Doug
  18. PrairieDoug
    Hi Jen - From this thread it sounds like the boogie is gonna be a blast! Will there be skydiving as well? Doug
  19. PrairieDoug
    I met Dave Landeck at the 2005 DZ.com holiday boogie. A very friendly, squared-away guy. I would be proud if my son turns out like him. Condolences to all who loved him. Doug
  20. PrairieDoug
    People make time for what they care about, whether it's a relationship or watching a DVD. Doug
  21. PrairieDoug
    I saw it yesterday and thoroughly enjoyed it (maybe more than I should have). I'm not a big horror fan, but this is campy enough to take the edge off the bloodbaths. It has a lot of really memorable dialogue, characters, and images. The double-feature format breaks things up and keeps the 3 hour running time tolerable. Doug
  22. PrairieDoug
    Congrats Jenn and Chad... you guys really help create a positive vibe at Chambersburg. Now if only I could get Jenn to jump with me... Doug
  23. PrairieDoug
    Not this guy... I prefer shape, proportion, and "perkiness." (And it looks like you're fine as far as those are concerned.) If you do decide to get some work, please don't overdo it. An overambitious boob job is a turnoff (for me). Doug
  24. PrairieDoug
    Way to go, Amber. Perseverance will take you a long way in this world. Doug
  25. PrairieDoug
    Just curious... Is there a particular threat that makes you feel safer with a concealed handgun? Doug