SethInMI

my exposure to cricket was initially through Douglas Adams "Life, the universe, and everything", and that happily has stuck with me. --------- "The game you know as cricket," he said, and his voice still seemed to be wandering lost in subterranean passages, "is just one of those curious freaks of racial memory which can keep images alive in the mind aeons after their true significance has been lost in the mists of time. Of all the races on the Galaxy, only the English could possibly revive the memory of the most horrific wars ever to sunder the Universe and transform it into what I'm afraid is generally regarded as an incomprehensibly dull and pointless game. "Rather fond of it myself," he added, "but in most people's eyes you have been inadvertently guilty of the most grotesque bad taste. Particularly the bit about the little red ball hitting the wicket, that's very nasty."

I just learned about the Garmin Autoland a few weeks ago. Pilot dies on you, no worries, just push the big red button and the plane starts squawking emergency on the radio, picks out the closest airport, and lands on the runway.

Re: the discussion about flying on autopilot and Joe's comment about real pilots wanting to fly. My wife likes to drive. She likes the control, she likes the challenge. I, on the other hand, the vast majority of the time just want to get to my destination. I don't mind driving, but I am more than happy to be the passenger, so the idea of a self-driving car I don't see as a threat. The world will be much safer when the only human drivers are those who really want to drive, they are the ones paying attention. Sure there are the hot-rodders, the street racers, the assholes who want to drive but shouldn't but that's the minority of the problem. It's mostly just idiots not paying attention or not understanding how driving works.

that's true of all these robo-taxi implementations (Tesla, Waymo, Cruise, etc). I think eventually they will become ubiquitous, but the only way really to validate them is in simulation, and no matter how much you do, you can't cover every case. The only trust I place is because they work; the bet that past performance IS a guarantee of future performance. What about that corner case? Well you hope that the odds of you being the one to find it are very low. I know I could be on a plane that has the poorly attached door, or the turbine blade that is about to fail, but the odds are low enough that I don't give it a thought.

I got my Tesla FullSelfDriving(Supervised) trial software installed a few days ago, so I have 30 days to experience it see if it is worth the 5k or 8k whatever the going rate is. After a few drives I am very impressed. Having worked in robotics for a long time, I know how good software makes difficult things seem easy. "Of course it worked that way, why would it not" and only when facing buggy / developing code do people realize how hard something can be. And that's how the car feels when driving. Very intuitive. It stops when it should (at lights, or stop signs, or yields, and then goes when it should. Waits for the light to change or the traffic to clear before turning left or right, etc. The visualization is impressive too, all the cars and pedestrians in the vicinity are plotted seemingly exactly where they are in reality. Is it perfect, no, I had to guide it out of a lane that became right turn only when we wanted to go straight, and it takes turns a bit tighter than I'd like but the path to the "robotaxi" future seems far more possible than not-possible, which is not something I would have thought a year or two ago. Maybe with more time I will be come more skeptical. I will take it to NYC next weekend, so will get a bunch of time on and off highway. The fact that Tesla is doing this with cameras only (so maybe 2k? hardware, I really don't know how much 7 cameras and a processor cost) is the game-changer.

As I think others said, the "cast aluminum" that Tesla is innovating is not their use of it, but the large castings, the largest used on passenger vehicles as I understand it, creating an entire body out of far fewer parts than conventional car construction. and yes, that's a pretty MG. threads can always drift in that direction for me!

Musk did something similar with twitter iirc, fired half the company then brought back key personnel, so he is at least consistent in his chaos; at this point anyone working for him has to view themselves as cannon fodder. as for the reason for the re-hire, this idea of him doing a 180 and not stopping Supercharger installations, his "we are doing $500M of installs in 2024" tweet might be more sales speak. I would want to know how 2024 spending compares to 2023 and planning for 2025. $500M might be what is needed to wrap up existing commitments. If 2023 had $900M and 2024 is planned for $100M then this really isn't a pivot after all, but without context his tweet doesn't mean much.

I defer to your knowledge of those days. At school in the early 90s I do remember the trackball mice (windows and apple) as being crappy, and the Unix workstations having optical based mice that were great.

I know you aren't asking me, and anecdotes aren't evidence, but my anecdotal experience fwiw: bought Model 3 in Aug 2021 Initial QA: missed small paint flaw near trunk, Tesla fixed with touch up paint (did terrible job, only saving grace very hard to see spot) trunk closed with uneven sides (left higher than right, Telsa adjusted and I'm ok with it still off but hard to notice) two interior plastic parts popped off, had to be re-snapped in place Subsequent 3 years: Tweeter in A Pillar died, was replaced Charger port circuit board died so I couldn't charge, was replaced so I'm not out any $ for these issues, and I'm happy with the car, but yes initial QA is not great.

Like others are saying, it isn't that Tesla was first with anything, it's that they did it right. Like Apple with the mouse. Apple didn't invent it but they used it properly, combined it with good software design to produce an innovative product. Tesla was rolling out OTA software updates to its entire fleet multiple times a year from 2012 and still does it today for millions of cars. Other car companies are finally getting on board 12 years later. I think that is why auto manfs. gave their UIs to Google and Apple via Android Auto and CarPlay. They couldn't keep up without an OTA mechanism. Having to use Android Auto is a PITA comprise that is finally dying now all? new car models can OTA and have Google or other UI built-in.

Even after 3 years I get in my Tesla and it feels like the future. Musk loves innovation, it doesn't have to be just software, and in fact I think he likes innovative hardware more, be it a new efficient rocket motor or re-usable first stage from spacex, or Tesla with its huge castings, fancy heat pump for cabin heat, or just the single screen no gauge cluster design of the 3 and Y. But bring software and hardware innovation together, and that is what SpaceX and Tesla will be remembered for (imho). The idea to put a cell modem in every car paid for by Tesla was brilliant. You don't need android auto anymore or apple car play, b/c you can update the UI yourself. And you can update the rest of the car's software at the same time. And now you can allow people to control their cars from an app on their phone, b/c they can talk to the car even when they are not in the car. Such a simple hardware concept, a modem in every car, but it changed everything.

Nice to see. I seriously wondered if they would ever get it back in the air. I never got a chance to jump it when it was flying "before"; I sure hope I get at least one jump out of it now it is back.

I read that too, and there likely is truth to it, but one counterpoint to the "irrational Elon" narrative is the fact that in Europe and in China, the Tesla fast charging network is now a small percentage of the total installed fast chargers. China i think just a few percent, and Europe around 15 percent. So the argument is that Elon is seeing the writing on the wall and deciding that the US will also follow suit, other networks will get their shit together and take over, especially since the Tesla connector has largely become the standard for charging connectors now. Still feels way pre-mature to me.

My understanding is that Elon is saying the existing network will be maintained at its current high reliability level, but it won't be expanded anymore (or at a very reduced rate) so new chargers will have to come from other providers (which the reliability will be ??)

A lot of Tesla owners, me included, are stunned. The tesla charging network is the envy of all other EV owners, and for Elon to say "We've done enough, no more" is, as Vizzini would say, "inconceivable". And yet, here we are. I got 40k miles on my Model 3, probably 8k of those on Supercharger supported trips. I'm sure I will have many more, but interesting times are here for sure.

I'm curious what your SIL is going to do. Did he buy the Model S new? Is he going to stay with Tesla for his next car? Go to a different EV brand? Or go back to ICE?

Interesting. Geely is going to sell in the US, through its Volvo subsidiary. I suspect BYD will watch and see how that goes. I read that the Biden administrations view of the tax credit rules for leases of EVs is pretty generous, and I suspect if Trump wins he could re-interpret them and close that door.

I've been seeing this alarmist subject popping up for me lately, the latest from the NYT: The gist is that BYD and Geely the big chinese automakers are going to be selling EVs & PHEVs in the US soon and will be cheaper than Tesla, and cheaper than any domestic / european ICE cars / SUVs. This will flip the script of subsidy debates, instead of the conservatives griping over EV tax credits they will be clamoring for EV tariffs to push the price back up. The liberals will be pinched, as they want to support EVs and also domestic labor, so strange bedfellows will likely be shacking up. The big three won't be in as much trouble as one may think, as they sell pick-ups and large SUVs and those have a loyal (to ICE and brand) fan base. We live in interesting times.

Prob not. My buddy bought a used Ford Flex last year, the water pump quit and that trashed the timing chain and the valves hit the pistons = new motor. Dealer quote was ~13k to replace. He found a junkyard motor and I think got out for 4-5k. But I would hesitate to extrapolate a early Model S to cars being sold now-a-days. As volumes ramp up and competition improves the gouging that comes with repair should come down. I actually wonder what the equivalent replacement motor would be for a low volume luxury car (high end BMW or Mercedes) of 10 years ago. Might be 20k.

I know it has been a few days since your post, but at your wingloading and experience you are fine on the Sabre3 (I say that as someone on the internet who is taking you at your word. Getting advice from an experienced coach / instructor who has watched you land will be worth a lot more) Also, a lot of people say they won't downsize, but as you get more jumps and get more comfortable, they do and likely you will too. Downsizing isn't terrible to do, downsizing before they are ready is where people get hurt.

Since the "EVs in the cold / the Chicago event" has come up a lot in this thread recently I can add my 0.02 on what I have read. Obviously as others have noted, Teslas have been used successfully in the winter for many years (Norway is a great example, but in the Midwest and Canada many many Teslas are used throughout the year, I'm in Michigan after all) What happened in Chicago seems to be some Superchargers near O'Hare were off line which is unusual. This may have caused a number of people coming from the airport with depleted cars to get stuck trying to get to the next nearest charger. Also their batteries would have been cold, and that causes a slower charge rate which exacerbates the wait time for others. Having better destination chargers at airports (or in other places like apartments or on-street parking) will go a long way to mitigating this issue.

so how far out do you feel comfortable predicting Brent? Where are EV sales in 5 years in the USA? Is Tesla bankrupt finally? EVs a distant memory? Or are they still the same 7% of overall sales they are now?

An almost a-political post garnering no responses . TIL that the Tesla connector uses the same pins for DC and AC power. Not sure why I didn't see that before...pretty slick. I saw Bill said that he "expects" Tesla to change their connector, but I would be surprised at that. They have long championed it, and it can do all anyone needs right now. 1000v and >650A is a crazy amount of power. I say "expects" because I think he was being a little sarcastic, but anyway we got a standard.

I came to the same conclusion many years ago. Several times a year I rent the pickup that our local big-box store has available so I can haul things, or borrow a family van to do that as well. Way cheaper. Not going to throw rocks at anyone who wants to own a pickup though, sometimes it is just nice to have a capability at your finger tips, even if you rarely need it...but people need to understand how much that actually costs them.

The advantage I see is that PHEVs don't run the engine as much, so less wear and tear on it should make it last longer, and the electrical parts of the drivetrain should be very reliable. (edit some Hybrids don't have a transmission with many gears so they eliminate a lot of complexity there) Really either way (pure EV or PHEV) you have to pay a lot of money for something you don't need very often, just for long trips. (pure EV extra battery capacity; PHEV an entire engine). I like the pure EV b/c the driving experience is better with smoother acceleration and ease of maintenance (no oil changes, etc) but I ain't throwing rocks at anyone with a PHEV