JoeWeber
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Everything posted by JoeWeber
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Más sabe el diablo por viejo que por diablo? Sounds good, I guess. The problem, of course, is that the old devils didn't hold nuclear playing cards. New devils need to play the game differently, I think. Everyone is fervently hoping that Russia doesn't force a hand. Well, they are now striking within 35 miles of a NATO countries border doing just what Putin threatened: disrupting the west's supply line to the Ukrainian Army. It won't take much of an F-up from an Army of F-up's to change the equation.
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I'd like to think that our leadership has in mind such a line and has already crafted our response. I'd like to believe that response included wide, firm and believable consensus among our European Allies that crossing that line would spring them into powerful action. But I don't, not yet. It sucks to be Ukraine, they're likely thinking, but if Ukraine becomes part of Russia Christmas will still happen in Iowa and the miracle of the EU will continue. Putin likely figures that in the aftermath, once we all calm down, Europe will go back to buying Russian gas and oil, multi-nationals will continue to confirm their allegiance to the bourses, and life will go on.
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If the Russians fail to take Kyiv quickly and suffer horrendous losses, which seems likely, it also seems likely that the Russians will pull back and shell the city into oblivion. That level of war crime may well bring the US and NATO to the point of action.
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I don't think they have the capacity to occupy Ukraine much less the national will. I don't doubt that Ukraine will accept being smaller just to end the war. I believe a lot will be learned in the assault on Kyiv. If the Ukrainians can kill enough infantry up front that the streets become a killing ground for Russian tanks this thing may wind down sooner than later. I'm not a military tactician by any measure but it seems to me that now would be a good time to knock out as many APC's full of infantry and fuel bowsers as possible and let the tanks come on.
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Could be you're right. Could be my views are polluted by almost daily communication with a venezuelan living and doing serious business there and regular talks with venezuelan nationals doing business in the DWI. Seems to me that today isn't yesterday.
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Depends how the deal is done. Maybe we do a deal on volume and license the production to oil companies. The more oil we control now to get past this unfortunate time is the more oil we can not pump later to get back on track, if possible. Just get creative and leave the delicate sensibilities at home.
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That's not obvious to me. I think that should be the objective. Nothing so quick it inspires escalation over capitulation.
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Venezuela has the worlds largest oil reserves and they aren't much more corrupt than Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Russia and so on. I'll be going there in a couple of months if things develop. From what I see they are moving in the right direction. Besides, just what are we holding our noses over? Presidential Candidates that foment insurrection and refuse to accept election results? A huge wealth disparity? Boneheaded legislators? I'm informed that a lot of the real bastards have taken their winnings and run away already. Other wealthy Venezuelans are investing in the country now and it's changing. I think, taking a longer view, that plucking Venezuela from the Russian sphere (Cuba, too) would be a real game changer in time. I say slap our enemies with our checkbook not punch them in the nose.
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Keith, with any luck this will end with all of the western world recognizing that it was a problem of our own causing. Neither of us can state with certainty that a wider war fought with US soldiers would or wouldn't mean many more civilian deaths and multiple nations. But I think the chances are good that would be the case. I think that because I think the chances are zero that Russia goes home without something called a victory. The war is 17 days old and thus far a disaster for Russia. Another few weeks of rope-a-dope and just maybe they'll take some things and go away for now. For our part we need to get our petro-shit together and stop giving the worlds wealth to the worlds worst actors.
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I think we're better off saying the "Russians" instead of "Putin". Maybe he is acting all alone here but it would be a mistake to think so. Also, are you certain that a theater nuclear weapon or a neutron bomb would trigger a NATO based nuclear response? Seems to me that slow attrition has less of a chance of triggering such an event than a sudden battlefield reversal with no immediate solution on offer. Awful as it all is I think slow and contained is the best current policy. While we're on the topic, unless all of the 2.5 Million Ukrainians who have fled to Poland are kids, disabled, old or possess some other infirmity that maybe they should be issued war suits and weapons and offered transport to their motherland.
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Absolutely. This horror show is it's own thing. I still maintain the best policy is to keep it in Ukraine and make it as drawn out and painful for the Russians as possible. Yes, Ukraine is suffering and yes they will need to give up territory for whatever peace with Russia will look like. Putin will need to walk away with a win, no doubt, and hoping instead for him to be removed is mere wishful thinking. But they'll still be a country, in or out of NATO, and the rest of the world won't be on fire and we can start, finally, to learn how to play the long game against our future enemies.
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Well, they didn't need him at Gallipoli.
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I'm often baffled. It's not so bad because it fills in the downtime. I read through the thread hoping to unbaffle my silly self but remain unclear as to just where we are sending VP Harris. Now I do get it that some here wouldn't send her to 5 Guy's for a bag of burgers. I get that. I once sent my niece and it took like forever and the fries were cold. So count me in. Also, I don't think there were 5 Guy's when Reagan was around so it must be somewhere else.
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Absolutely. Give him the victory. No NATO membership and no further dispute in Crimea for a complete withdrawal and a useless promise to never invade again.
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A DZO? A moderator?
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Someday this war's gonna end..... Hopefully without a nuclear exchange.
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That's not true for me and wrong. 1. Mercenary fighters are, from what I've read, being offered $2000 a day. Show that's wrong and I concede. Wrong is that I do not give a shit. You wanted full on engagement with Russia two weeks ago. Both of our calls may yet turn out wrong. I like my chances, still. But if you think my core is to ignore all the harm that the Ukrainians are suffering you have missed my intention. I think my way of thinking will cause less harm. I hope I am right.
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You haven't read my posts.
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Volunteers at $2 Grand a day? Okay, I guess. The reality is they are people who will kill or be killed for money. Fine, and if we need them we need them, but they aren't Peanuts characters and it shouldn't be an aspirational job for kids. How many? 74 Million. We took a poll recently.
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I'd say that's more than a stretch. No matter, anyone who believes that war should, all or in part, be privatized is certainly on solid ground these days and in days gone by. My point I think was both simple and clear: if we're going to do it let's leave the euphemisms behind. In this case "merc" sounds nice like the cool car your pop talked about. Mercenary, not so much.
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It's a philosophical position. The Russians hire the Wagner Group, the Ukrainians hire others. If I were the Ukrainians I'd hire whoever I could afford. I simply think coming up with a cutesy name like "mercs" is slippery. We're normalizing a terrible thing:the outsourcing of the bloody end of the stick.
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Crap. I thought I'd nailed it. Steven Seagal still alive I'm pretty sure.
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Interesting that you think it was mercenaries, not Ukrainian forces, that killed the officers with what must have been American made .50 Caliber sniper rifles. I'm guessing you haven't heard of Simo Häyhä. No matter. I will say that I think it is a seriously wrong practice to refer to hired killers, aka Mercenaries, and "mercs" in the same way grandma say's bowel movements are #2's. Be they of the Wagner Group (sounds like accountants, right?) or Blackwater (the port-a-pottie people?) they are hired killers without a nation and we should not be happy when they are fielded.
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It's not like he banned K-Y Jelly, Mr.concerned about Biden's behind. Reaching around to a more topical area of concern did you notice, in your excitement, how masterfully Biden played Putin in the lead up to the Russian invasion? Instead of constantly thinking that guys nuts you might have noticed that when everyone else was buying Putins legerdemain Biden consistently stated that the Russians were in fact going to attack. By doing so he denied Putin his own Überfall auf den Sender Gleiwitz pretense and coalesced international opinion against Putin at the get go. So, in that sense he most definitely took Putin from behind.
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It came from your push back on whether you should be held to task for stating things as fact and having no recollection of from where you heard it. No matter, I apologize. FYI, I do believe it was Skydekker who made the claim on suicide rates, not I.
