brenthutch
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Everything posted by brenthutch
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When you factor in the greater upfront cost, the greater backend depreciation, increased tire wear (up to 20%) the inconvenience of having to find a charger and then having to wait, sometimes hours, to recharge, the astronomical cost of replacing a battery should you get in a fender bender and the the increased insurance premiums most folks will just opt out. There will still be a market for the early adopters and virtue signalers but that is starting to get tapped out.
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Not to mention all of your friends who need to borrow it to move stuff
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My wife’s GLS is a hybrid, it had regenerative breaking and torque fill to reduce turbo lag, interesting technology but maintenance is $$$. OTOH my 11 year old, low tech,Honda has only had oil and tire changes and one break job. I inquired about it’s 90k scheduled maintenance and it is about $2200 for belts, pump, plugs, valves etcI asked when the next one was scheduled, they told me not for another 90k+.
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My OP was: “As I have said many times before, EVs remain a niche market for lefty effetes, while normal folks stick with ICE vehicles. A reality the car industry is now coming to terms with.” With unsold EV inventories piling up on dealership lots, car companies are canceling projects, cutting production, slashing prices, all the while losing money on every unit sold. my original point stands. It is only going to get worse as the $7500 tax incentives are now gone on most vehicles. A simple reality that some on this forum are unable to grasp. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-14/ev-inventories-hit-record-high-in-us-as-cars-pile-up-on-dealer-lots
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It’s not a matter of moving the goalposts, it is a matter of choosing which goalposts to use and when discussing the slowing growth in demand of EVs there are many goalposts….so many goalposts.
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Surely you realize both can be true. EV companies lower prices, eviscerating profits while at the same their price cuts destroy the value of earlier models purchased at full price.
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Another bulletproof analogy.
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“But that's not what's happening. Lower prices are not translating into higher sales. The number of cars Tesla delivered to customers in the third quarter actually declined. Revenue is dropping, and the company's once fat profit margins are getting squeezed — down to 17.9% in the third quarter, compared with 25.1% a year ago. Competitors aren't being driven out of business, either. Once totally dominant in the EV space, Tesla's share of the US market has fallen from 62% at the beginning of the year to only 50% today.”
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Inventories are building up, prices are coming down and generating negative income for every one sold, hardly a sustainable business model. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-price-cuts-electric-cars-losing-business-strategy-2023-11#:~:text=The number of cars Tesla,driven out of business%2C either.
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Well you wouldn’t because you couldn’t. I just want folks to be fully informed before they try to catch a falling knife.
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10 minutes to fill a tank? I call bullshit. Unless you add all of the time pulling off of the highway and getting back. Apples to apples EV charging is at least 10x more. Thank you for that much needed reality check from someone who generally doesn’t agree me.
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Then explain this Ranking of EVs by 5-Year Depreciation – iSeeCars Study Rank Model Average 5-Year Depreciation 1 Tesla Model 3 42.9% EV Average 49.1% 2 Tesla Model X 49.9% 3 Nissan LEAF 50.8% 4 Chevrolet Bolt EV 51.1% 5 Tesla Model S 55.5%
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With a level 2 charger that goes from two to 12++ hours assuming there is no line.
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The $10,000 was from the difference in depreciation from a normal car and the greater cost of an EV. I made no mention of installation costs. I was actually being quite conservative. I just went on CARFAX and saw a 2nd generation 2022 Nissan leaf with 8000 miles for $14,000. Sticker on a 2024 is $28,000. That is for an entry level car, the difference because greater as you move up the food chain
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If you were paying attention, you would know that much of the “refueling savings” is gobbled up by the increase in depreciation. $10,000 dollars buys a lot of gas. I don’t know why you have to resort to name calling, I’m just sharing the realities of the market place. BTW that big bad government driving up costs prices folks on the margin out of the market.
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Read my edit
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“all of the EVs below have been in production for at least five years and have lost more value than the 38.8 percent average across all used cars.” Ranking of EVs by 5-Year Depreciation – iSeeCars Study Rank Model Average 5-Year Depreciation 1 Tesla Model 3 42.9% EV Average 49.1% 2 Tesla Model X 49.9% 3 Nissan LEAF 50.8% 4 Chevrolet Bolt EV 51.1% 5 Tesla Model S 55.5% That difference in depreciation goes a long way in canceling out any fuel savings.
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“The Tesla Model S topped the list of EVs that depreciated most over five years; it lost 55.5% of its value, according to the analysis. Rounding out the top five were the Chevrolet Bolt EV (-51.1%), the Nissan Leaf (-50.8%), Tesla Model X (-49.9%) and Tesla Model 3 (-42.9%)” “For its analysis, iSeeCars looked at over 1.1 million used cars from the 2018 model year that were sold between November 2022 and October 2023” https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-west/transportation/2023/11/07/evs-depreciate-more-than-any-other-vehicle-type--study-says
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No that sensible rule will prevent the carnage the US is experiencing from unattended gas pumps. AKA zero
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After they spend the extra money on an EV and accounted for the depreciation, they will have no more money to spend
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Not everyone will stop, but most people will opt out. I don’t see EV adoption exceeding 15% in the next year. Fanboys are all in and normal folks are saying “not right now”
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Happy new year brother! I was wrong about Tesla, full stop. I never said it didn’t work for Seth, I just added some much needed context.
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Just wait Bill, just wait. The trend is not your friend my friend. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelharley/2023/10/30/5-reasons-why-electric-vehicle-sales-have-slowed/?sh=3d947c765110 You guys are not dummies, you know the wave of early adopters has crested, why do you persist in this nonsense?
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Not some folks, most folks as indicated by the dramatic drop in the growth of EV sales. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2023/11/14/ev-sales-2023-slow-inventory-pile-up/71572499007/
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It is going to be a much harder lift to convince folks to replace their affordable, long range, towing capable, quickly refueled, easy repaired, value retaining vehicles with expensive, quickly depreciating, slow to recharge, expensive to fix, limited range and towing capacity EVs with dubious infrastructure support.
