crwtom

OK - you can figure out the adjustments to numbers and dates. But this is what is in plain view: What the curve clearly shows is a recovery and even plateauxing of the index from late 2001 until mid/early 2002 at nearly 1200 points. So if you look only until mid 2002 it looks as if the market not only quickly recovered from 9/11 but even that the downwards trend from the bubble burst starting mid 2000 was leveling of. One thing this clearly show is that the economy did not go into a tail spin as a direct result of 9/11. This is simply inconsistent with the index curve. The erosion and collapse happened mid/late 2002 due to other reasons (mainly threat if war). In recent days the SP500 dipped beck to 1300 (end even below that) so I concede about 100pts of increase over 6.5 years - still quite pathetic given how the index has increased historically. T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

it took the markets (say sp500) about a year to return to the level of early 2002 where they hovered until into 2005. For reference, the early 2002 level is roughly the same mid 1998. So this pattern obviously falls *way* short of historical expectations of market growth - bubbles or not - and "shooting up" is a bit much spin and flattery. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

And the NASADAQ is at half the level it was in 2000. i chose the Sept 2001 mark since that already factored in most of the usual excuses (9/11, .com-bubble, Clinton in general, ...) But if you want to factor in 9/11, you have to take the price after 9/11 took full effect on the markets. The better comparison would be with Oct 4, 2002, when the S&P was at 800. It's still up 66% since then. the down spike of 9/11 was recovered after about 2 weeks. As much as 9/11 was a tragedy -- in huge economy like the US with a $14Triliion GPD the attacks themselves and the destruction of a handful of buildings is a drop in the bucket. in October 2002 war was looming already -- and what stock markets hate even more than war itself is the uncertainty of a war on the horizon. Of course if you say the war was a necessary consequence of 9/11 you can say 9/11 indirectly caused the baisse following late 2002 -- personally, I consider the 9/11->Iraq implication as rubbish. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

General elections are a whole different animal from primaries. In primaries "staying above the fray" and being generally polite is valued. General elections tend to be all out mud wars. Remember how the repubs made big hay of Kerry's supposed "legislative laziness". Imagine this machine unleashed on Obama -- Kirk Watson will be the biggest star in repub campaign ads. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

And the NASADAQ is at half the level it was in 2000. i chose the Sept 2001 mark since that already factored in most of the usual excuses (9/11, .com-bubble, Clinton in general, ...) ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

The S&P500 is currently at the same level as end of September 2001 What breathtaking economic progress over the last 6.5 years ... Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

same reason as McCain -- 2008 is the last chance to make a stand before the bio clock runs out. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

"views" are a dime a dozen (just look at SC) ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

The hands down greatest idiocy and failure in military strategy since Vietnam is the ``Raumsfeld Doctrine" -- which was also very busy disassembling US military in other parts of the world. IIRC Rumsfeld was in the Bush and not the Clinton admin. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

it seems the notions of "electable/popular" and "competent/experienced" are diverging more and more in US politics. If I had to order dem candidates according to the former it'd be Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Richardson and if by the latter it'd be Richardson, Clinton, Edwards, Obama ... almost the opposite Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

the other way around - if the CVP puts up Merkel and no one wants Merkel - then the CVP and many of their reps are screwed. Voters have to evaluate both the candidate for chief executive and the integrity of the supporting party and make up their mind about both and how they work together. You're less likely to have Mr Popular who cannot get diddlysquat done with the current legislature. There are also considerable differences in the CVP or SPD if you go from north to south. In a democracy regional politicians will tend to conform with regional mentality to get the votes - no matter what the system is. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

that's what Huckabee has effectively done - run for vice president. Split the conservative vote to hand the ticket to McCain, give him some more opportunities for publicity by staying in so that they can have a few more "cordial debates" and prove that he can carry the south and religious vote. In the end being perceived as to liberal may not be the biggest problem that McCain will have in the general election -- it is not too hard to make a case that he's the candidate closest to the current prez, who is not exactly popular. Just to name a few - He'll keep the US involved in Iraq longer than any other candidate, and much of his talk indicates he will not shy away from further military engagements. - He promises to appoint conservative judges to the supreme court. - He is been "establishment" longer than any of the other cadidates. - He (self admittedly) knows as little about economy as GWB. - Supported pretty much any initiative of GWB in last 2 year. - etc If it is true that his main strength is his appeal is to independent he is quite vulnerable. Thus far dem's not gone on the attack and tried to make him into "GWB II" - but it is not unlikely this will happen and discourage more than a few "independents". Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

I doubt it -- the history and politics of racism in the US is quite unique to the US. Although many countries have their own ethnic and racial divisions there aren't really any good parallels to the way this developed in the US from slavery to civil rights movement. As to gender, having women leaders is not a novelty in many other democratic countries already for decades. In either case people from other countries will take interest in how far the US has caught up with handling racism and sexism, but I don't think the US elections will serve as an example to anyone outside the US. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

Read also the article to the end. It's not the 80's anymore ... Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

I suppose you'd say the same thing if the US was a monarchy - thanks for the insight tho. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

"Apes don't kill people...Apes with guns kill people" crwtom ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

Yup - that's what the Constitution says. You can be as incompetent as you want to be, start devastatingly costly wars for bogus reasons, and mismanage just about everything. Policy and competence are no reasons for impeachment. Swipe a lollipop at a convenience store, however, and make a "high misdemeanor" out of it and you got yourself a reason for being impeached. See ... the Constitution always works ... Cheers, T You don't think it makes sense that political decisions are unimpeachable? That's why we didn't do it to Kennedy for the Bay of Pigs or for getting us started in Vietnam or for "letting" the Soviets build the Berlin wall. too bad I'll be too busy to discuss - but this should be the start of a whole new thread - namely, that the concept of having a "president" is really an outdated one. The 'strong man' with little political accountability (within 4 years), dominating an entire branch of government, unifying head of state and chief executive in one person (thus confusing competence and popularity) is an 18th century concept that may still work for third wold and emerging countries but it is hardly adequate for 21st century, highly developed country. The function was conceived in a time when not much was known about various other democratic forms of government and amidst people who wanted George Washington to become some sort of constitutional king. Impeachment is a crutch that never was good for anything, other than being a symptom of greater flaws. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

yeah of course --- Gravel is the dem's last chance Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

Yup - that's what the Constitution says. You can be as incompetent as you want to be, start devastatingly costly wars for bogus reasons, and mismanage just about everything. Policy and competence are no reasons for impeachment. Swipe a lollipop at a convenience store, however, and make a "high misdemeanor" out of it and you got yourself a reason for being impeached. See ... the Constitution always works ... Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

your anchor could cripple the economy in a couple of continents. This is like it was from a wacko commercial or a Bond movie. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

Yeah, a real spirit of democracy flows through her. You think she'd be so keen to include those votes if Obama had the majority? So what ... Obama didn't when he didn't get the majority ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

that's a good question. After Edwards and Giuliani out he is the only middle tier candidate left on either side. Rumors are McCain wants him to stay in to split the conservative vote from Romney ... while dangling the VP carrot. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

want to bet that Teddy's endorsement will do very little to the big Clinton margins in the CA and NY polls ? They didn't budge after the SC primaries or the Kerry endorsements either ... Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

quite possible that this is a phyrric victory for Obama - you hear his name mentioned more and more often together with Jesse Jackson and even Al Sharpton -- something the Obama campaign really liked to avoid. We'll have to see how the national polls will react. Obama still has to catch up a 20% gap in many Feb 5th states ... The more interesting thing - Edwards is effectively finished but has vowed to stay in. If Clinton and Obama run a long and close race that will turn him into a "king maker" down the road. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

The recession was 1990-1991 (which did GHWB in in the elections) at the end of the Reagan Aera and on top of the huge deficit. Same pattern as 20 yeasr later now maybe shifted by a couple of years earlier. The only difference, in the 80's money was blown on a domestic party (military industry and such) and on the 00's on war and pork, which may have accelerated the inevitable bill/invoice to the public at the end in the latter case. T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true