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Everything posted by PhreeZone
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I have a real fear that the current administration is going to make previous Democrats look like they were fiscally responsible. The tax cuts that are proposed are going to add 1.5-2.0 trillion to the national debt and that was assuming that expenditures were not going to go up 1 dollar. Several billion dollars are being pledged for the military, VA, "infrastructure" and a host of other projects that have not even been called out yet. Unless the administration can figure out how to cut a couple of 100 billion from our budget annually the debt is going to jump. If they do figure out how to remove that amount of expenditures in their first budget prepare for a rough ride since that is a massive amount of money to yank out from the economy and the effects will be massive inflation, skyrocketing interest rates, massive unemployment and foreclosures at a rate that will make the last housing bubble look like it was just a tiny ripple. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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Dems...what is it that scares you about Trump?
PhreeZone replied to airdvr's topic in Speakers Corner
Lets not forget Linda McMahon gave $6 million to Trump's Super PAC, Rebuilding America Now, in August and September of 2016. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com -
Dems...what is it that scares you about Trump?
PhreeZone replied to airdvr's topic in Speakers Corner
Holy FUCK are you wrong.... Steven Mnuchin, Trump's pick for treasury secretary, served as his national finance chairman, helping organize dozens of high-dollar campaign fundraisers held across the country. The former Goldman Sachs executive and hedge fund manager also personally contributed at least $425,000 to support Trump’s presidential bid, through donations to the campaign, the Republican National Committee and state parties, according to Federal Election Commission data. Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross, who Trump selected as his commerce secretary, was an early financial supporter of Trump's campaign. He opened his Southampton, N.Y., estate for one of the campaign's first fundraisers, which cost $25,000 a head. Ross personally contributed at least $200,000 to support Trump's run, finance records show. Trump selected Chicago Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts to serve as deputy commerce secretary. His father helped finance Future45, a super PAC that spent lavishly for Trump in the final weeks of the campaign. TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts gave the group at least $1 million through the end of September, FEC filings show. Joe Ricketts and his wife, Marlene, also contributed nearly $344,000 to support Trump's campaign and the Republican Party. The latest suggest addition to his cabinet is Andre Pudzer. Together with his wife, Puzder contributed $150,000 in late May to Trump's campaign and Republican Party partners, fundraising records show. That is almost $2,000,000 in just 4 positions that was contributed to him. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com -
http://www.livescience.com/11739-wars-plagues-carbon-climate.html From the Holocene Journal in January 2011 the authors did a study to identify the impact of mass death events and have measured via ice cores that the 40 million people killed during Khan's time and during the subsequent invasions had lowered CO2 levels by .1-.2 percent and lead to a change in the amount of solar radiation that was reflected back off the earth. Some of the calculations need more study such as the exact amount of regrowth that occurred to determine how many metric tons of CO2 where converted into carbon that was locked into trees but it appears that it is a measurable amount. Larger scale farming including clear cutting of forests has been occurring for a long time but in the 1800's is when we see that large amounts of old growth forest through out the midwest are cut down for farming. At the same time industrialized farming was accelerating in Europe. Here are some numbers around farming in the US 1850: Total population: 23,191,786; farm population; 11,680,000 (est.); farmers 64% of labor force; Number of farms: 1,449,000; average acres: 203 est of farmable land: 294,147,000 acres 1860: Total population: 31,443,321; farm population: 15,141,000 (est.); farmers 58% of labor force; Number of farms: 2,044,000; average acres: 199 est of farmable land: 406,756,000 1880: Total population: 50,155,783; farm population: 22,981,000 (est.); farmers 49% of labor force; Number of farms: 4,009,000; average acres: 134; est of farmable land: 537,206,000 In just 30 years the estimates on farmable land in the US almost doubled (+243,0590,000). On the east coast this was done via clear cutting. In the Plains this was done via conversion of prairie into farmland. 1910 Total population: 91,972,266; farm population: 32,077,000 (est.); farmers 31% of labor force; Number of farms: 6,366,000; average acres: 138 - total: 878,508,000 Add another 30 years and the number is almost 4 times as much land was converted in just 60 years. 1930 Total population: 122,775,046; farm population: 30,455,350; farmers 21% of labor force; Number of farms: 6,295,000; average acres: 157; irrigated acres: 14,633,252 - Farmable estimate 988,315,000 1980: Total population: 227,020,000; farm population: 6,051,000; farmers 3.4% of labor force; Number of farms: 2,439,510; average acres: 426; irrigated acres: 50,350,000 (est of total farmable land - 1,039,231,260. This is almost triple the land converted to farmable in the last 100 years. This all being said - one other factor from a gas side that has to be looked at is production of methane since it is also a greenhouse gas but it has a much shorter life span in the atmosphere than CO2 does but is a higher multiplier. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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The mini ice age that started in the 1300's was partially driven by Genghis Khan and the mass destruction he caused in Asia. This impact was larger than any of the natural occurances during this time. With the invasions lasting for several generations and lasting 130+ years it ended up displacing a large portion of the population and just eliminated an even larger percent of the population. There were so many deaths over such a large area that it caused massive reforestation of the entire region until the population was able to stabilize several decades later. This large amount of new trees and plant growth where able to act as a large carbon sink absorbing a massive amount of CO2 from the atmosphere and cooling the planet slightly. This slight change was all that was needed to trigger cooler temperatures planet wide. The Black Plague was much shorter lived (30-40 years total) and the population was not impacted by the same levels and quickly re-stabilized faster than reforestation could occur. In the 1800's agriculture became more mechanized and it allowed for larger areas to be cut down globally and less efficient plants took the place of old growth forests in terms of storing carbon. We started to see the percent of land being used for agriculture really start an upward trend in the mid 1800's with the introduction of steam engines on the farm which increased the efficiency and allowed for more land per farmer. Population growth also went from 1 Billion in 1800 to 2 Billion in the 1920's. This increase in the population was a large driver in the need to clear more land to feed more mouths. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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President Trump saving jobs, and not even in office yet!
PhreeZone replied to jgoose71's topic in Speakers Corner
They just sold off their Helicopter division to Lockheed so they know how to do spin offs and Carrier is not a large profit center for them so I would not be surprised if it happened. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com -
President Trump saving jobs, and not even in office yet!
PhreeZone replied to jgoose71's topic in Speakers Corner
Looks like in addition to Carrier getting $7 Million in tax breaks they will be eliminating a lot of the positions after all in the next few years. In an interview with CNBC’s Jim Kramer, the C.E.O., Greg Hayes was blunt. “We’re gonna make up $16 million investment in that factory in Indianapolis to automate to drive the cost down so that we can continue to be competitive. Now is it as cheap as moving to Mexico with lower cost labor? No. But we will make that plant competitive just because we’ll make the capital investments there.” MR. CRAMER: “Right.” MR. HAYES: “But what that ultimately means is there will be fewer jobs.” He also confirmed that he feared standing up to the president-elect could be very costly to his conglomerate, which includes a lot of defense work. “There was a cost as we thought about keeping the Indiana plant open. At the same time — and I’ll tell you this because you and I — we know each other, but I was born at night but not last night. I also know that about 10 percent of our revenue comes from the U.S. government.” Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com -
I am on board with the electoral college but there are issues with it. The issues I have are 1) The laws that have been passed against "Faithless" voters. The college is made up of people from their own party and if those members decide for some reason to not vote for their nominee they should be allowed to. I was expecting to see some Bernie ballots being cast this year if not for the Faithless voter laws being enacted. The original intent of the EC was to allow the general votes to vote to give the EC voters a sense of what was desired but if the EC for some reason felt differently they could do that. 2) the establishment of the political party as a whole was not seen when the EC was enacted. Originally the President and the VP could be and were typically of different parties. Those two individuals then used their offices to work together to come up with platforms for the entire country. Once the tickets became "Elect #1 and you get #2 for free" that eliminated some of the voice of the voters and was again against the original intent of the EC. 3) is that the EC as it stands right now does not properly represent voters due to the disparity in the voters per EC member. If you look at Wyoming with a population in 2008 of 532,668 and its 3 votes that comes out to 177,556 per EC voter. California has 36,756,666 and 55 voters so its EC voter is worth 667,303 voters. Someone in Wyoming's vote is worth 5x as much? To make the math add up California would need to have 207 votes for the weight of their vote to be the same. I do not see that ever happening since the number of electoral votes needed to make sure every state had an equal voice would be upwards of 1700 EC votes. A whole new formula would need to be decided instead of just using the house and senate to determine the number of votes that each state is worth if we truly were trying to balance the weight of a vote so that all voters vote is equal in its volume. Since all states need to agree to the changes in the EC I don't see the states that have their votes amplified ever agreeing to change it. Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming are all over 10% above the average weighted voter with being up to 318% and Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, New York, and Texas are all 10% or more under. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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http://www.aapsonline.org/press/nrvacres.htm "Our children face the possibility of death or serious long-term adverse effects from mandated vaccines that aren’t necessary or that have very limited benefits," said Jane M. Orient, MD, AAPS Executive Director. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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They are the only ones that spend $30 million in 2010 to do it via Project RedMap Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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President Trump saving jobs, and not even in office yet!
PhreeZone replied to jgoose71's topic in Speakers Corner
The union representing the workers is unaware of the terms of the deal so I am curious as to what incentives the State offered up since it was Pence that signed it. Word was that it was extremely heavy tax incentives and dropping of some of the claw back money that they were getting for retraining workers since it was sounding like 700 of the 1700 positions were still likely to be eliminated. What the final deal looks like will be an interesting conversation. If the spending bill comes forward I see a lot of republicans being put into a really hard spot about trying to be fiscally responsible and slash the debt will at the same time agreeing to spend 1 trillion dollars with out a funding mechanism in place for it. Do they become the new "Tax and Spend" party? Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com -
I purposely I have a $5000+ delectable for my plan for my family and it works fine as long as you treat it like the plan that it is. I used to have a plan with a much lower deductible but it was costing me a lot more per month out of pocket. I did that math that if I jumped over to a High Deductible plan and rolled the difference between what I was paying with the "Premium" level plan and the new plan into a HSA (that I was now eligible for) I was in a much better spot than I was under the Low Deductible plan. My family was not frequenting the doctor that much so for us it worked out that our total Dr visits were only costing us $300-400 a year. It has changed our behavior in terms of going to the Dr and for tests, now we look and see where some treatments will be cheaper and I have turned down procedures at the local Dr to go to an out patient center where the cost was 20% of the price that the local hospital wanted to charge. We paid for an entire delivery and all the first year visits out of pocket via the HSA and still did not meet the $5000 deductible because we looked around and found the options that fit our needs the best. I have been able to fund my HSA fully in just the premium differences. The great thing is I still get the negotiated discount of the medical procedures but I only have to pay for the services I actually use. The HSA option only works if you choose a HD plan and can afford to put money into it. I am really lucky that I am able to fund it so that if I do ever need use it it is there but for a lot of people getting the subsidity it is not a realistic option to say here is your $300 dollar plan, now put an extra $500 a month into this HSA fund when you have previous medical bills that are due, a car that is broken down, child support is due or any number of financial issues. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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So what is the endgame goal for this? Do you want to see the next 4 years spent in a constant state of "need to put something crazy out today since its been quiet for a few days"? That does not help to actually complete any business, which despite a lot of people thinking Washington needs eliminated - its still plays a really critical function in a lot of day to day life for a lot of people. What happens when a tweet like "Next Iranian boat to point a gun at us will be blown out of the water*" or "North Korea is so weak, their nukes are a joke, we will glass parking lot them" gets posted? Media goes crazy over it but then are we willing to back up the statement with actions? How far should the office of the presidency go towards a reality show where statements are made to get news ratings? Here is another question - just because the president makes a tweet does that make it news? *Statement was made during the campaign. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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Trump refusing his daily intelligence briefings
PhreeZone replied to jclalor's topic in Speakers Corner
The whole thing reminds me of one of the comments Kasich's aide made just after Pence was named to the ticket- Trump was offering Kaisch to be the most powerful VP ever since he was only interested in some aspects of the presidency and wanted to have the VP do the other parts. Basically only do the parts that he wanted and then delegate everything else to others. He was referring to it as the CEO vs COO plan. He wanted to turn the cabinet into a Board of Directors and then have the VP be a COO and do the day to day running of the country and the CEO would be the public face and set the direction for everyone else to go to. Everyone laughed at the time but it seems that is the plan that is now happening. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com -
Part of the old course's issue was it was also very political due to the limited number of instructors. You had a really high chance of passing if you knew the instructor, had been going to boogies with them or had previously served in a military unit. With each course instructor being able to basically set pass/fail criteria and not having a standard to base off of you had student that failed under Instructor A on their first 2 jumps but passed the course with no failures at all under instructor B. If you wanted to become a course instructor the rest of the group basically had to agree to let you join their club so it became a "Good Old Boys" club pretty quickly. I was happy to see the changes that set a clear pass/fail criteria for each jump as well as instructor standardization meetings so that all the instructors are on the same page in terms of is a student passing or failing. I wish that some of the more detailed portions of the evaluations was not dropped but overall it seems that the students graduating today seem to at least all have been judged fairly in their course and were either failed for no clear reason nor passed because "I know them". Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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Well... looks like this campaign promise is already being discarded: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/trump-clinton-investigation-kellyanne-conway-231735 “I think when the president-elect, who's also the head of your party now … tells you before he's even inaugurated he doesn't wish to pursue these charges, it sends a very strong message, tone and content, to the members,” Kellyanne Conway said. “And I think Hillary Clinton still has to face the fact that a majority of Americans don't find her to be honest or trustworthy, but if Donald Trump can help her heal, then perhaps that's a good thing.” Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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What Does This Say About The Democrats Message?
PhreeZone replied to rushmc's topic in Speakers Corner
The Red/Blue County map is a poor representation of the voting levels and there for adoption of a party platform. Here is a better one that shows it on a linear scale: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2016/countymappurple1024.png Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com -
That is not how any of this works... If you want to talk at a very technical level I am more than willing to discuss the finer points of this but the extremely basic concept is the same as the post office. As it was before the US government was the keeper of the address book that contained everyone name and address, now that list is being maintained via a private party. Any attempts to edit this list need to be replicated globally so if anything is deemed wrong by any of the receivers they can reject the change. This never had anything to do with "First Amendment" issues. This is a technology issue. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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What Does This Say About The Democrats Message?
PhreeZone replied to rushmc's topic in Speakers Corner
Ohio flips back and forth at the end of every term for the Governor for the most part so in a few years it will be flipping again when the current terms are up via limits. Strickland lost his Senate run primarily on the argument that he drained our Rainy Day fund when he was governor that had a large pile of money and ran it down to about .87 cents in the account. While it sounds great in a 5 second soundbite it was only partially correct but it proved to be a really large uphill fight to counter it and a lot of people just did not care anymore at that point since he was talking policy details and that is seen as not interesting. He was also seen as not caring about drug addiction and Portman made heroin addiction as a keystone to his story since it is really impacting the rural areas a lot harder than it is some of the more urban areas. Strickland then tried to add it as a point and was seen as a copycat and that hurt him a lot too. When the total vote count for the 2012 elections for the house favored the democrats by 1.5 million votes and they ended up losing seats that is not able to be explained as a complete rejection of policies. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com -
What Does This Say About The Democrats Message?
PhreeZone replied to rushmc's topic in Speakers Corner
Ohio lost seats because of Gerrymandering. It was so bad off of that in 2014 we had a state wide ballot issue that passed that removed the ability of the government to set the districts and instead moved that to a bi-partisan committee that has a lot of restrictions in place that basically is going to put about half of our state districts within a 5% range instead of the 40% range some were at. That is going to make a lot more seats competitive and removes the effects of some of the previous redistricting. http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/10/14/court-rules-maps-open-to-referendum.html There is an entire project from the Republican State Leadership Committee called "Redmap" which received about $30 million dollars in an effort to redraw the lines in every state to tilt more districts towards being Republican than they previously were. There is one district created that is only homes on both sides of a single street for several miles to link two cities that tend to lean democratic together into a single district and then surrounds them with multiple other districts that now basically have no democratic at all in them. So out of 4 districts the republicans get 3 and give 1 to the democrats. The total vote count for the democrats is much higher than the other 3 districts put together but the democrats now are the minority party due to this redistricting. I recommend looking at these for insights into the practice off the 2010 census: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/03/opinion/sunday/the-great-gerrymander-of-2012.html?pagewanted=all http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/11/15/not-gerrymandering-but-districting-more-evidence-on-how-democrats-won-the-popular-vote-but-lost-the-congress/ http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/gop-gerrymandering-creates-uphill-fight-dems-house/ Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com -
Transcript (its really not that hard to find these things): http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-donald-trump-family-melania-ivanka-lesley-stahl/ When we interviewed him on Friday afternoon Mr. Trump said he had not heard about some of the acts of violence that are popping up in his name… or against his supporters. Nor he said had he heard about reports of racial slurs and personal threats against African Americans, Latinos and gays by some of his supporters. Donald Trump: I am very surprised to hear that-- I hate to hear that, I mean I hate to hear that-- Lesley Stahl: But you do hear it? Donald Trump: I don’t hear it—I saw, I saw one or two instances… Lesley Stahl: On social media? Donald Trump: But I think it’s a very small amount. Again, I think it’s-- Lesley Stahl: Do you want to say anything to those people? Donald Trump: I would say don’t do it, that’s terrible, ‘cause I’m gonna bring this country together. Lesley Stahl: They’re harassing Latinos, Muslims-- Donald Trump: I am so saddened to hear that. And I say, “Stop it.” If it-- if it helps. I will say this, and I will say right to the cameras: Stop it. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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How many of them will yell out during it? Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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If you want to see some scary deficit projections look at what Tax Foundation (somewhat conservative oriented group)put together over the summer for projections based on candidates plans that were put forward at that point. http://taxfoundation.org/article/details-and-analysis-donald-trump-s-tax-plan Overall, the plan would reduce federal revenue on a static basis by $11.98 trillion over the next ten years. Most of the revenue loss is due to the reduction in individual income tax rates, which we project to reduce revenues by approximately $10.20 trillion over the next decade. The changes to the corporate income tax will reduce revenues by an additional $1.54 trillion over the next decade, with the remaining static cost ($238 billion) due to the elimination of the estate tax. However, if we account for the economic growth that the plan would produce, the plan would end up lowering revenue by $10.14 trillion over the next decade. The larger economy would increase wages, which would narrow the revenue lost through the individual income tax by about $666 billion and increase payroll tax revenues by $839 billion, with the remainder of the recouped revenue coming from other taxes. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com
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Largest factor in decline of manufacturing jobs?
PhreeZone replied to PhreeZone's topic in Speakers Corner
Which regulation or taxation policy specifically is causing the exiting of manufacturing from the US? Details are needed to understand which policies you want to have changed. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com -
I already have a fire safe for all the long guns thanks anchored into a concrete wall but as I kelp getting told it's useless for home protection since its behind a few doors and multiple stair flight away from where we spend any time. I am mainly concerned about leaving anything outside of the safe where not just my children but anyone else such as their friends could reach it. Biometric seems like a horrible idea based on how many times my Phone does not seem to know who I am. trying to is there are other options out there or if I should just look at a small portable safe to put in another room. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com