"The Iranian Parliament has approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil choke point, after the United States bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, according to Iranian state media on Sunday.
While the Parliament has voted in favor of closing the strait, the final decision rests with the country’s Supreme National Security Council, according to state media." I don't think they will do it. Instead they will play the victim and fund the bomb program. They will play the long game.
During the first Trump presidency there was a nuclear agreement which Iran was honouring. They had less than 500 centrifuges and never installed more during the entire term of that agreement. After trump tore up the agreement Iran dramatically expanded enrichment. After Trump ordered the assassination if the Iranian diplomat/general Qasem Soleimani they expanded it again. As of last week the goal was 15,000 centrifuges.
There is all sorts of celebration in the Trump executive about the success of the mission but over 400kg of 60% enriched uranium exists in Iran. Sixty percent enrichment represents 90% of the work of enrichment. Most of the existing centrifuges are first generation models and Iran has now employed second and third generation ones. About 70% of its centrifuges were first generation ones of 12,000 total.
All Iran has to do to get back on track is rebuild about 5,000 of its third generation models and with two weeks it could have the material for up to eight bombs. IMO the Mullahs will have a limited military response then get back to rebuilding centrifuges. This time the site will likely be a km underground.
IMO Iran gets back to business and keeps revenge cold. It keeps getting upgraded Russian missile designs, keeps supplying Russia with drones and checks out the newest nuclear warhead designs that Putin will sell. Iran would likely have still only had the 500 centrifuges had Trump not reneged on the Obama agreement. Not killed its diplomat/general.