My understanding is you are an 8:11 jump person vs an 8:13 type. Is that correct?
Either way works for my theory. As soon as he sees BG lights it’s go time. If he saw BG 90 seconds sooner or later has no impact on the overall plan and using the lights of BG. It’s just minutiae.
The pilot Ryan talked to was on the FBIs radar right after the jump. They searched his place and gave his wife a hard time. He has been flying this area for over 50 years. I take his input very seriously. He says it’s darkness regarding city lights till BG. BG just happens to be right at the 8:11-8:13 window.
The flight simulator we can argue with but it is another data point worth considering.
At what point did Cooper get the stairs down? Isn’t it around 8:05 when he answers the interphone and says hi to Tina and that everything is now good? That’s the set up. He was preparing after 20 minutes of waiting. It was just before go time. This is part of why having a short flight is beneficial. Cooper can track his location better.
I disagree about Reno. I don’t think Cooper had any intention of being on the plane then. But while he is negotiating he is sitting on the runway in Seattle with the aft stairs closed. He wanted Mexico, but he’ll take anything south. Why not pick podunk over major metro if you’re Cooper? Give yourself another option if everything fails. The fact he didn’t argue much about the stairs being up or down or which airport to refuel at indicates to me he only tangential cared. LA? No thanks. Huge…tons of cops. Reno, sure. Less cops. Whatever. It’s south and that’s the point. His plan was to be gone by Portland. He’s just giving himself an option if his plan fails, he is nonchalant relatively speaking because it’s the backup option.
If you are right and Cooper just wanted to get out of the US -he knew roughly the flight distance of a 727, he didn’t ask to go to Brazil- then why ask for the dirty configuration at all in Seattle? Wouldn’t the best option be to tell them to fly as fast as possible to Mexico and not ask for drag flaps/10k ft/landing gear down? And if that was a mistake, he wanted it later, why wouldn’t he bitch about the stops? He knew the plane under normal conditions could make it to Mexico. If that’s his destination why not just get there ASAP?
IMO Cooper wanted south over Portland. He gave instructions that would take him south and have the plane in a configuration to jump. He has only two needs, he achieved both. It worked.
As for the 120 mile wide path…Cooper set conditions that wedge them in on the east with the mountains. If the plane had gone west to the coast he would have told them to go back and try again. There is nothing on the coast that works for Cooper, it’s all terrible for him. He would not want the coast and wouldn’t put up with it. Why would he? It makes no sense for a guy looking to jump. Of all three other directions West is the worst for jumping.
My theory is he kept it simple. Select a short flight. Go from one metro to the next, without other metros to confuse you. Learn the key indicators (BG/I-5 lights). Know the terrain from the air and ground. Jump before the metro lights. Simple. Can’t mess it up. Hell, any one of us could pick the spot between BG and Portland from the air at night knowing what we do now. We can tell the distance/time/lights, so could he. That’s all he needed.
As for a vehicle or accomplice…not needed. Any good car thief can get away regardless of where he lands. Cooper only needed good terrain to land in. Once he is on the ground he is almost certainly armed and dangerous and will take the first viable vehicle and flee. Cooper thinks they are looking from Seattle to Reno, the night before Thanksgiving. He has time to steal a vehicle and make 100 miles before anyone notices.