Some thoughts on evaluating risk in skydiving. We all evaluate risks, every single day.
But we evaluate risks differently when it's something we want to do, rather than something we don't want to do.
Four things you can do with risks normally are to avoid, mitigate, share, and accept. In each case, in order to make an intelligent decision, you have to understand the pieces of the risk, and the consequences. And in each case, if you want to be thorough (and when you're talking about high speed impact with the earth, it pays to be thorough), you should start by taking a contrarian view to what you kind of want.
The 4 things come in that order because generally, those offer the easiest or cheapest way to navigate around risk. It's generally cheapest (whether money, injury, whatever) just not to do it; next is mitigating, because then you have to understand it, and it's in your control still. Accepting it is last -- often that just means "shit happens," and shit happens fast in skydiving. Try not to go there.
In other words, if you really don't want to do something, get someone who thinks you should to enumerate the reasons why, and consider them honestly. If the consequence is loss of friendship or macho points, that's different from injury or death.
And if you really want to do something, get someone who thinks it's a bad idea to enumerate the reasons why, and consider them honestly. They are potential costs of doing it, and might have to be paid for. Got insurance? Got a job with sick leave? That might enter into whether you want to start swooping or downsize, because injury is a very honest possible consequence of skydiving, and downsizing will generally increase the chances of injury. Even if you're good.
Mitigating might include getting additional formal training in a new canopy or skill (CRW camp, finding a mentor). It might include starting swooping with a larger canopy than you currently own. It might include limiting you who are willing to skydiving with. But regardless, it means understanding the components and consequences honestly, and not with rose-colored glasses or an unwarranted spirit of optimism. And in skydiving it generally means taking an action, or specifically avoiding one. Mitigating can include running through emergency scenarios in your mind, and considering what you would do in that case. What happens if someone cuts you off? What happens if it happens at 50 feet instead of 200 feet? How about if you end up in someone's back yard?
Risk sharing? Not sure how well that applies in skydiving. The consequences of a bad decision are rarely lessened when they're shared -- it only means more people are damaged...
And accepting should mean that you've seriously considered the risks and are just saying "I'll go for it, with no additional preparation." Which might be just fine, if you really are ready, or if the consequences are supremely unlikely (like an asteroid hitting your canopy, not like dropping a toggle). Or it might just be an immature way of saying "the heck with it, I'm going for it, and assuming that there will be no consequences." Refer to my tag line...
Wendy P.