From two epidemiologists. They are, respectively, a research fellow in the department of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College, and the Chair of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
"On March 16, the White House issued initial social distancing guidelines, including closing schools and avoiding groups of more than 10. But an estimated 90 percent of the cumulative deaths in the United States from Covid-19, at least from the first wave of the epidemic, might have been prevented by putting social distancing policies into effect two weeks earlier, on March 2, when there were only 11 deaths in the entire country. The effect would have been substantial had the policies been imposed even one week earlier, on March 9, resulting in approximately a 60 percent reduction in deaths."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/opinion/covid-social-distancing.html
60% of 127,000 is 76,000.