Question about Tandem Fatalities

[Andy9o8 2]

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Students grasp concepts like currency and experience instinctively. When I tell them that I started jumping 33 years ago, have made more than 6,000 jumps, including 4,000 tandems, they instinctively relax because they perceive that jumping with me is a low risk.

Of course, there will always be a few that figure your time's just about up.

[humanflite 0]

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Of course, there will always be a few that figure your time's just about up.

The British Parachute Website

www.bpa.org.uk

has some great info on tandems and statistically (by a lot!) has recorded them as being the safest skydive a newcomer can make.,

[Bertt 0]

To the O.P.: I'd go with the responses from Skypuppy and Skyjumpenfool. Tandems are fairly low-risk, but there is risk. Those skydivers are using real gravity out there.
As far as the statistics are concerned, think of Russian roulette using a revolver with 6 chambers, one of which is loaded. Your chance of not dropping the hammer on the loaded chamber on each spin is 5/6. Your cumulative chance of survival for two trials is 5/6 X 5/6 or 25/36. For 4 trials your chance of survival drops to 625/1296 or a little under 50/50. You can think of skydiving as roulette with a revolver with upwards of 100,000 chambers. You have some control over how many are loaded.
I leave it as an exercise for the reader to figure the odds of Russian roulette with one of the new, magazine-fed semi-automatic pistols.

You don't have to outrun the bear.

[Harmless 0]

But if its magazine fed, then the one bullet is always next

"Damn you Gravity, you win again"

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

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But if its magazine fed, then the one bullet is always next

Right. That makes the chances nearly 100% (nearly because there's always a chance of a misfire).

Somehow I think that was the point

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[lawrocket 3]

I think that a decent enough answer is to say, "fellas. You will jumping out of an airplane. Yes, very few die doing it, but much can go wrong and it happens in tandem. You can be seriously injured or killed.

"The sport is not safe. it is dangerous. The danger is pretty apparent. The death rate from tandems is very low. The injury rate is low. But there are death and injury rates.

"It's not a roller coaster. You can die. People die doing it. Stats can misleading. Just look at the risks. The risks are quite apparent and will be repeatedly pointed out to you before the jump."


Look - there's one person I brought to skydiving that stuck with it. Perhaps my biggest nightmare with this sport is that something happens to her during a jump.

These are things that really hit hard at times. Something to think about that I wish I knew.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[jenkincb00 0]

WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE JOHNNY!!!

[thrillstalker 0]

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Look - there's one person I brought to skydiving that stuck with it. Perhaps my biggest nightmare with this sport is that something happens to her during a jump.

These are things that really hit hard at times. Something to think about that I wish I knew.

i know how you feel, my friend is on his level 4 aff now. end the end we are only responsible for our actions.

"Never grow a wishbone, where your backbone ought to be."

[noodlesR6 0]

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WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE JOHNNY!!!

And Patrick did

[CSpenceFLY 1]

Simple answer to your whuffo friends is skydiving is dangerous and you can be injured or killed. I don't sugar coat it for anyone. I don't "talk" people into jumping. They either want to or don't. The mess they leave behind is theirs and you can't see it from my house. Are you going to be able to look your friends mother or wife in the eye if you talked them into jumping and they die on their first jump?

[danielcroft 2]

I like CSpenceFLY's (and similar) answer.

The probability of mutually exclusive events is the sum of the probably for each instance. So, if (as people have been saying) all things are equal on each jump then your probability of dying over time increases. The reality however is that all things aren't equal. Your experience, acceptable level of risk and currency play large parts in the probability of your death. Skydiving is also a complex system (as many other people have said) and the probability of other factors also does not stay the same.

It's fun to talk about (ok, for some of us ) but I would expect that any experienced skydiver would understand that you can mitigate your risk factors which will reduce the chances of something going wrong but that doesn't remove the possibility of death. You don't have to be a statistics major to work out that it's dangerous irrespective of what you do in the sport.

[Andy9o8 2]

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Simple answer to your whuffo friends is skydiving is dangerous and you can be injured or killed. I don't sugar coat it for anyone. I don't "talk" people into jumping. They either want to or don't. The mess they leave behind is theirs and you can't see it from my house. Are you going to be able to look your friends mother or wife in the eye if you talked them into jumping and they die on their first jump?

No. That's why I never recruit anyone to make a first jump.

[redlegphi 0]

I'm no mathematician, but a lot of this thread sounds an awful lot like the gambler's paradox. If the over all risk of death on a skydive is 1 in 100,000 (all other things being equal), then your risk on every jump you make is 1 in 100,000 (all other things being equal). Your risk doesn't go up with the number of jumps you make. There is no such thing as Fate that knows that you've made 99,999 jumps and therefore you're due to die on the next one. When you get down from your jump and ride up for your next one, your risk is reset to 1 in 100,000.
Of course, all other things aren't equal, and you can do tons of things to increase or mitigate risk on any given jump.

[Andy9o8 2]

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If the over all risk of death on a skydive is 1 in 100,000 (all other things being equal), then your risk on every jump you make is 1 in 100,000 (all other things being equal). Your risk doesn't go up with the number of jumps you make. There is no such thing as Fate that knows that you've made 99,999 jumps and therefore you're due to die on the next one. When you get down from your jump and ride up for your next one, your risk is reset to 1 in 100,000.

I get shouted down every time I say this. People will come back and say that, this factor notwithstanding, the more jumps you make over the course of a year, the more likely you are to get injured or killed skydiving over the course of a year.

I think the calculus is more simple: if you skydive, you're more likely to get hurt than if you spend every weekend sitting on your couch scratching your balls. Either accept that, or don't jump. Anything beyond that is just happy horseshit.

[ghost47 18]

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I'm no mathematician, but a lot of this thread sounds an awful lot like the gambler's paradox. If the over all risk of death on a skydive is 1 in 100,000 (all other things being equal), then your risk on every jump you make is 1 in 100,000 (all other things being equal). Your risk doesn't go up with the number of jumps you make. There is no such thing as Fate that knows that you've made 99,999 jumps and therefore you're due to die on the next one. When you get down from your jump and ride up for your next one, your risk is reset to 1 in 100,000.

Speaking purely mathematically, while it's true that every time you jump your odds are reset, and a single jump carries the same risk at the beginning of your career as at the end, it's also true that your overall risk increases the more you jump.

An easy way to illustrate this is thinking of a deck of cards. Are you more likely to draw the Ace of Spades if I gave you one chance or 100 chances? The chance on any individual draw (assuming randomized cards) is 1 out of 52, or roughly 2%. But with 100 chances, the chance that you will draw the Ace of spades is 1 - (51^100/52^100) or roughly 86%.

I agree that if you reach the 99th draw without having drawn the Ace of Spades, the chances of you getting it on the 100th draw are the same as the chances of you getting it on the first draw, i.e. roughly 2%. But the more you draw, the more you increase the overall likelihood you'll pull the Ace of Spades.

Similarly, all things being equal, the more you jump the more likely you'll die or be injured, even though each jump carries the same likelihood (again, speaking only mathematically).

[Para5-0 0]

***I think the calculus is more simple: if you skydive, you're more likely to get hurt than if you spend every weekend sitting on your couch scratching your balls.***

I actually read this whole post and the only thng I got out of it is the concern that I can get hurt scratching my balls? Maybe if you had long finger nails, or a prostetic. What about if you scratched your balls while making a tandem, or your passenger scratched his balls. or for some of you if your passenger scratched your balls.

[douwanto 22]

The numbers say Tandem is safe. the numbers do not address training, equipment or the complexity of tandem in general.

As we all see from past tandem fatality's when something goes wrong it can turn tragic in short order. It is the training that will help the TI assess the situation and produced a positive outcome. Having those skills is required for becoming a TI.

Also the numbers are skewed dramatically by sport fatality's under a fully functioning parachute. It would be very interesting to see how the numbers crunch with those removed for a realistic view of malfunction fatality's.

My bottom line is Tandem is just as dangerous and demands better response skills when something goes wrong because of the complexity of tandem systems as a whole.

I love the DZO's who want to pay the person performing tandems $30 which is minimum pay as well as put on a handycam for $20 a jump.

You want me to save you a slot that you fill for $25 extra and pay me less then outside video while you charge the customer the same price.

Greed breeds danger is all I can say.....

Uncle/GrandPapa Whit
Unico Rodriguez # 245
Muff Brother # 2421

[riggerrob 643]

"

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... I love the DZO's who want to pay the person performing tandems $30 which is minimum pay as well as put on a handycam for $20 a jump.

You want me to save you a slot that you fill for $25 extra and pay me less then outside video while you charge the customer the same price."

.........................................................................

I sort of agree with you.
The first time I got paid $70 ($30 for TI skills, plus $40 for hand-mounted video) for a tandem was the first time I believed I was being paid what I was worth.

Last year the DZO quit paying extra for hand-mounted video.
Guess how many hand-mounted videos I did last year?

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[noodlesR6 0]

I actually read this whole post and the only thng I got out of it is the concern that I can get hurt scratching my balls? Maybe if you had long finger nails, or a prostetic. What about if you scratched your balls while making a tandem, or your passenger scratched his balls. or for some of you if your passenger scratched your balls.

[fcajump 164]

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"The sport is not safe. it is dangerous.
"It's not a roller coaster. You can die.

I agree with most of what's been said by the folks here... but for myself, I focus on a few things:

1. chance that I will die: 1 in 1
now its just a matter of what I do (and with whom) before then.

2. chance that it will be while piloting a 747 (or doing a lot of other things) near 0... (point: if you're not doing it, your not likely to die doing it.)

3. Roller Coasters are not 100% safe (The CPSC estimates there are between 3,000 to 3,500 accidents each year involving permanent amusement rides. Of those, just 2 percent are serious enough to require overnight hospitalization. There are an average three fatalities per-year related to amusement park rides -- or one fatality in every 90 million park visits. )

4. The more you know about the industry, equipment, procedures, safety and proper training methods and the more you follow safe practices, the better your odds.

Just my $.02
JW

Always remember that some clouds are harder than others...

[crotalus01 0]

Statistics aside, tell your buddies the truth - this sport is dangerous.
And take my word for it, maybe 1 in 100 that says they "want to jump" ever actually does it.

As for me and my house, we will serve the LORD...

[Rstanley0312 1]

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Lies, damn lies and statistics!
You are ignoring the curvature of the risk assessment chart.
Your first jump of the year is high risk, because you are rusty.
Your second jump of the year is half as risky.
Your fiftieth jump of the year is low risk, because you are current.
Your five-hundredth jump of the year is high-risk, because you are exhausted and complacent.

I disagree with your logic.
The same way that an insurance salesman told me the same logic. He said that he did not want to hear about one skydive per year, but would raise my rates if I made more than 50 jumps per year.
Then he turned around and told me the exact opposite logic about pilots. He said that pilots who less than 50 hours per year were a high risk, but pilots who flew more than 50 hours per year were a low risk.

The deciding variable is currency.
Consider that you need to make a minimum of 0 jumps per year to maintain an Exhibition Jump Rating (A CSPA rating similar to the American PRO Rating). Also remember that tandem instructors need to make a minimum of 50 jumps per year to maintain their TI ratings, and if a TI has not jumped with a student within the last 90 days, then he needs to do some refresher training.

Students grasp concepts like currency and experience instinctively. When I tell them that I started jumping 33 years ago, have made more than 6,000 jumps, including 4,000 tandems, they instinctively relax because they perceive that jumping with me is a low risk.

Rob Warner
Strong Tandem Examiner
CSPA Rigger Examiner

That's how my life ins. works.... because of the amount of jumps I make and because I have an instuctor rating I am considered safer. I know it is different for every insurance co.

Life is all about ass....either you're kicking it, kissing it, working it off, or trying to get a piece of it.
Muff Brother #4382 Dudeist Skydiver #000
www.fundraiseadventure.com

[vanair 0]

Wow, my head hurts. I always thought it was 50/50, either I'm going to die or not. Shawanga!