georger 268 #13276 September 29, 2009 QuoteHere's what's funny. Just compute surface area of water. Which has most probability as a landing zone, if a water landing 1) Lewis River 2) Washougal 3) Columbia Quote. ... from 20k feet traveling at ..... with winds ..... Its not as simple as you imply. (edit) at the river crossing, it's .8 statute miles. While the plane was travelling around 3.8-4 statute miles/minute. So 12 seconds or so that are critical precisely and winds etc ............. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites georger 268 #13277 September 29, 2009 Quote377: "Georger makes a very convincing quantitative argument of how unlikely it would have been, but it doesn't rule it out." If i'm driving down the highway with you hanging out the door...and I'm going 100 mph, and we're driving towards a telephone pole, and I say..."Look, there's hay right after the telephone pole, just jump when you see the telephone pole." It's the only telephone pole for 70 miles. How likely is it that you hit the telephone pole and die? That's why georger's last analysis doesn't really work. The analysis of a 12-15 second window is interesting. If you see the lights of Portland and Vancouver and jump, you're likely in the Columbia. (or the Williamette, but that's smaller) There is a reference to a young person finding a body on the Columbia that night, but when they returned with a sheriff or LE, the supposed body wasn't there. I have to find that story. why? did you hit the telephone pole and are now groping for an explanation? In any event you cant use an assumption to justify a flight path which in turn justifies the assumption. Yes. There is a story about a boy finding a body, in a second version the body is hanging from a tree. Another crop circle story without the crop circle! If we found a body beside the river could we know if the body came by the river or was simply dumped by the river. Probably. We look for water in the lungs or other signs. If the bodywas dead prior to being in the river we look for other telltale signs. But if we find footprints and tirte tracks behind the body then its a fair bet the body was dumped. Were there fragments leading back up the bank at Tina Bar as opposed to strung out in a linear shape parallel to theriver? Is there anything in the money which proves it came by the river as opposed to having arrived by land and sat for a long time? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites georger 268 #13278 September 29, 2009 Quote Quote 377: "Georger makes a very convincing quantitative argument of how unlikely it would have been, but it doesn't rule it out." If i'm driving down the highway with you hanging out the door...and I'm going 100 mph, and we're driving towards a telephone pole, and I say..."Look, there's hay right after the telephone pole, just jump when you see the telephone pole." It's the only telephone pole for 70 miles. How likely is it that you hit the telephone pole and die? That's why georger's last analysis doesn't really work. Snow is right and skydivers know this. How many skydivers have managed to hit the only obstacle in a large clear area? Object fixation. I'm outta here for a few days...keep the good stuff going guys You have said this before. Snowmman has brought the idea up before. His example does not guarantee hitting the pole vs other options. It may guarantee the corpse (if there even is a corpse) is found in the same county. Youc all this Object fixation. I dont see any object fixation in Snow's example. I see you and Snow fixated on the idea that there may be Object Fixation, which Snow's example is not an example of ? An example of object fixation is when a driver sees a distant object, steers to it while being distracted on his texting phone, keeps texting, keeps steering, and boom! Thathappens all the time around here. Morons and cell phones. Thats why our Legislature is going to ban the damn things while driving, because bad drivers ARE bad drivers. If not a cell phone it would/is something else. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites georger 268 #13279 September 29, 2009 QuoteIf Cooper had spotted on the Columbia and deployed, he maybe wouldn't have landed in the Columbia. If he spotted on the Columbia and didn't deploy, he would probably land in the Columbia? What about that idea, 377? It would be interesting if he deployed and landed in the Columbia. I was thinking the canopy would have been found, but from our discussions, I'm thinking not, now. Is there anything about the money or money find that requires it was ever IN the Columbia? Fazio says high tide but his is a one dimensional response. He's reaching for the closest simple explanation (which does not fit the find data). Fazio hadnt the faintest clue there was money on his property (we assume?) until the Ingram find. One idiotic version of this story (I have been told) is that Fazio knew all along there was old (Cooper?) money out on his bar wasting away, but didnt call it in because .......... ??? Is there anything about a single high tide that could explain any of the forensic facts of the money at Tina Bar, or multiple high tides, or other common facts of Nature at Tina Bar stretched out over time of which high tides are but one component? Would any of this be different if the money arrived by land vs by the river? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites snowmman 3 #13280 September 29, 2009 McPheters was on FBI SWAT in Miami and dealt with hijackings. Interestingly (for 377), their weapons couldn't always penetrate 747 tires "One of my supervisors, Bob Strong, quickly discovered that our standard issue thirty-eight caliber rounds would not penetrate the tires on the larger aircraft, when he attempted to do just that on a Boeing 747 ...during a skyjacking in Miami. This incident helped us realize that the FBI's garden-variety type weapons, even our 12 gauge shotguns and sniper rifles, could not always deflate the tires on the big planes. Soon we turned to other mechanical means to stop the aircraft..." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites snowmman 3 #13281 September 29, 2009 georger said "Yes. There is a story about a boy finding a body, in a second version the body is hanging from a tree. Another crop circle story without the crop circle!" No it's not that story. It was in a news article, not a blog/forum posting. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites snowmman 3 #13282 September 29, 2009 Georger said "Would any of this be different if the money arrived by land vs by the river?" Why would there be fragments over a larger area, if it arrived by land? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites snowmman 3 #13283 September 29, 2009 Our only hope on getting more real data on the Ingram money find is with Bruce and McPheters. I'm wondering if there were some FBI reports that were lost, or written in Portland that never got to the Seattle collection. Ckret seemed clueless about extra fragments. I thought he said the bundles were all there were. I remember because I was thinking the fragment stories in the news were wrong. (edit) looking at some of Ckret's early posts, Ckret somehow had the idea that rubber bands couldn't be preserved on Tena Bar, (say from 1974) but that they could be preserved elsewhere..i.e. some other river. I think he thought the bag was some magic preserving agent, but that sand was not as good a preserving agent. I don't know where he got this idea. Seems wrong. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites georger 268 #13284 September 29, 2009 Quotegeorger said "Yes. There is a story about a boy finding a body, in a second version the body is hanging from a tree. Another crop circle story without the crop circle!" No it's not that story. It was in a news article, not a blog/forum posting. yes, a news article from the early period just after the hijacking. Forget which newspaper... Sluggo may know. Father and his son as I recall at some place on the Columbia. Boy came running back and reported a body in a tree, the father never went to check but called it in when they got home, deputies went to look with the father and boy and found nothing... this is one version I recall. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites georger 268 #13285 September 29, 2009 QuoteGeorger said "Would any of this be different if the money arrived by land vs by the river?" Why would there be fragments over a larger area, if it arrived by land? Think about it! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites georger 268 #13286 September 29, 2009 QuoteOur only hope on getting more real data on the Ingram money find is with Bruce and McPheters. I'm wondering if there were some FBI reports that were lost, or written in Portland that never got to the Seattle collection. Ckret seemed clueless about extra fragments. I thought he said the bundles were all there were. I remember because I was thinking the fragment stories in the news were wrong. (edit) looking at some of Ckret's early posts, Ckret somehow had the idea that rubber bands couldn't be preserved on Tena Bar, (say from 1974) but that they could be preserved elsewhere..i.e. some other river. I think he thought the bag was some magic preserving agent, but that sand was not as good a preserving agent. I don't know where he got this idea. Seems wrong. why would a rookie assigned to other FULL TIME duties who just picked up the case on his personal time be up to speed on anything in this case? It is remarkable he did as well as he did. I wouldnt be up to speed. You wouldnt either. Nobody would. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites nigel99 610 #13287 September 29, 2009 Quote Quote 377: "Georger makes a very convincing quantitative argument of how unlikely it would have been, but it doesn't rule it out." If i'm driving down the highway with you hanging out the door...and I'm going 100 mph, and we're driving towards a telephone pole, and I say..."Look, there's hay right after the telephone pole, just jump when you see the telephone pole." It's the only telephone pole for 70 miles. How likely is it that you hit the telephone pole and die? That's why georger's last analysis doesn't really work. Snow is right and skydivers know this. How many skydivers have managed to hit the only obstacle in a large clear area? Object fixation. I'm outta here for a few days...keep the good stuff going guys It isn't object fixation (especially when you have a non-stearable parachute). BUT it is one of those twists of fate that appears to happen more often than is rational. At my DZ we had a stream about 10-15 foot wide and it was amazing just how many people landed in it over the years. I've also seen someone land do a stand-up landing right onto a barbed wire fence on a T-10! It was extremely funny as the fence was pinned under his feet with alot of tension and he was fine until he tried to step off.Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites 377 22 #13288 September 29, 2009 That T10 barbed wire landing is amazing. Calculate those odds. There were a number of student jumpers at my DZ who had the expected results with barbed wire. I remember tremendous anxiety going backwards in the air under a C 9 round towards barbed wire and thinking I should have run downwind to clear it. Never hit any but had some very close encounters. If Cooper landed alive with the loot but in a major river it would be the most awful feeling. I hope it didn't happen that way. The DZ at Livermore CA was huge and had only one hazard: a vertical metal pole for the windsock. Not only did jumpers hit it with improbable frequency but a jumper-pilot hit it buzzing the DZ in a plane and crashed. He survived but his girlfriend passenger didn't. 3772018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites snowmman 3 #13289 September 29, 2009 I was wondering about how sediment accumulates in the Columbia Interesting slides here (attached) Has some historical charts Mostly, I was thinking about Tosaw searching in the low-flow areas of the Columbia. But sediment drops in the higher flow areas, the shipping channels, which is why they have to dredge them. I was thinking of whether cooper and money could have ended up in the higher flow areas. Interesting comments about PDO cycle here cold PDO years are La Niña warm PDO years are El Niño • Columbia River flow varies with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cycle • Climate-related fluctuations in sand input are larger than those in flow • Most sand transport occurs as suspended load during freshets • Dredging volumes are correlated with flow and sand supply • We are trying to understand a data-poor system PDO and Columbia R. Flow, 1858-2000 -- • CR flow exhibits large variability over 20-50 years • Cold-PDO years since 1946 include very high flows • Low-flow, warm PDO periods like 1977-95 have occurred for only ~40-45 years since 1890 • The 1980-95 period is not typical of the last 140 years PDO and Columbia R. Flow, 1946-2000: • Cold PDO: 1946-76, mean Beaver flow 7,325 m3s-1 1996-00, mean Beaver flow 8,090 m3s-1 • Warm PDO: 1977-95: mean Beaver flow 6,210 m3s-1 • Cold/Warm PDO differ by a 20+% • Ten years during 1980-95 are in the lowest third of all flow years since 1878 Sediment Transport Amplifies Climate Effects: • Sediment transport varies with flow QR as QR n, n>1 • For total load, n ~ 2.5; for sand, n ~ 3.5 • There are seasonal changes in SPM quality (e.g., size and organic content that are poorly understood) • This amplification is an important aspect of how modest climate changes have large ecosystem effects, e.g., on salmonids Sand Transport, 1946-99 • Cold PDO: 1946-76, CR+WR 4.5 x106 mt tons yr-1 1970-76, 1996-99, CR+WR 3.3 x106 mt tons yr-1 • Warm PDO: 1977-95: CR+WR ~1 x106 mt tons yr-1* • Warm/cold PDO sand transports differ by factor of 3-4 *1980 and 1981 exclude Mt. St. Helens sand input Dredging Volumes -- • Seven high-flow years since 1976: 12.2 ±2.3 x106 mt tons yr-1 (±95% conf limits) • Sixteen low-flow years since 1976: 7.4 ±1.2 x106 mt tons yr-1 (±95% conf limits) • Ratio for highflow years to lowflow years is 1.65 • EIS Projected dredging is 6.3 x106 mt tons yr-1 Dredging and Hydrology: • Dredging is correlated with flow, R2 ~0.3- 0.5 (depending on the model used) and with sand transport, R2 ~0.3- 0.6 • Best results obtained when current year of dredging is compared to the past two years of flow or sand transport • There appears to be a base dredging level of ~2-3 x 106 yd3 full docs good http://www.sei.org/columbia/downloads/jay1.PDF http://www.sei.org/columbia/downloads/jay2.PDF Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites 377 22 #13290 September 29, 2009 QuoteI was thinking of whether cooper and money could have ended up in the higher flow areas. Certainly possible. If he had an open canopy would it have increased or decreased the chances of being swept into and/or along higher flow areas? Wonder if he knew how to release the Capewell riser attach fitting on his NB6 (8?) to release the canopy after a water landing? Sometimes the canopies trap air after a water landing and can be used for floatation for a while. If Cooper died on a river landing who was he? Why wasn't he missed? I doubt if even Braden could have survived a Winter night landing in the Columbia. A Whuffo wouldn't stand a chance. You sure find a lot of interesting stuff on dredging, sediment transport, etc Snow. I am leaning towards dredging as the way the money got to Tena Bar. Georger, your thoughts on the dredging theory as to how the money got to Tena Bar? 3772018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites nigel99 610 #13291 September 29, 2009 Probabilities/odds Snowmman or Georger posted a map with a green flight line crossing the river. For some reason I never connected that the flight path was so close to Tena Bar. Honestly having seen that and the money find I believe that Cooper is sleeping with the fishes. My thoughts are that whether he was under a parachute or not he made a splash and the money got transported in the river - it is the "simplest" explanation.Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites 377 22 #13292 September 29, 2009 Bad spots, round canopies, together they can really be a bitch. Been there, but not on a stormy winter night over the Columbia. 3772018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites snowmman 3 #13293 September 29, 2009 Quotenigel said: Snowmman or Georger posted a map with a green flight line crossing the river. For some reason I never connected that the flight path was so close to Tena Bar. Honestly having seen that and the money find I believe that Cooper is sleeping with the fishes. My thoughts are that whether he was under a parachute or not he made a splash and the money got transported in the river - it is the "simplest" explanation. with respect to flight line: There were two lines. One is approximately the V23 airway (green), per Sluggo. The other is the flight path (light blue) copied from the FBI map. It's got more turns, curvier. It has 1 minute interval locations. The "minute" designations are per the FBI map, not corrected for likely 1 minute error issue. Note that the light blue flight path is an approximation. maybe +-1NM variance worst case? Also, in between the radar marks, the plane likely curved more. The flight path showed straight lines between the 1 minute ticks In any case, both paths get close together at I-5 when it crosses the Columbia. Flight 305 strayed off V-23 mostly before it got to PDX. I suppose since it had to fly around PDX (counterclockwise), that reoriented it. We've explored this a lot before. Maybe what's new now is that we've explored a lot of other options, so it's easier to have a different opinion of things.. The bill fragment story appears to be stronger. The black on the bills info seems resolved. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites snowmman 3 #13294 September 29, 2009 377 said "Wonder if he knew how to release the Capewell riser attach fitting on his NB6 (8?) to release the canopy after a water landing?" Capewells? I thought we went thru this. I thought there was no emergency release? from Poynter: "The Navy still does not have releases on any back, seat or chest assemblies where the harness is attached directly to the container (NB-6, NC-3, NS-3). ..." Poynter talks of Navy use of Rocket Jet releases on other rigs http://books.google.com/books?id=BKTuTXrXQu0C&pg=PA125&lpg=PA125&dq=nb-6+capewell&source=bl&ots=n_rlxp9TYo&sig=qplHR0hD6k6zMAHwajhDhXmrqu4&hl=en&ei=u1XCSvzeMITisQPXrvjqAg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4#v=onepage&q=nb-6%20capewell&f=false He says the Army and Air Force used Capewells. "..the Navy was using three quick ejector snaps. Rather than jettison the canopy, the user would unhook the three snaps and remove the whole assembly" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites 377 22 #13295 September 29, 2009 Right you are Snow, I forgot. Some surplus gear was extensively modified by riggers for sport jumping but if Cossey said the NB 6 was stock then it had no Capewells. Seems like a bad design by the Navy. If you are getting dragged by winds your chances of getting out of the harness are not so good, even with ejector snaps on the harness straps. Even releasing one Capewell will collapse the canopy and is a lot esasier to do than finding and releasing a harness strap while being dragged. Sometimes making releases too easy to operate causes problems with inexperienced jumpers. This video (dont watch it if you are squeamish) shows a panicked jumper releasing his main after a low altitude canopy collision. It happened a few days ago in Brazil. Had he remained calm and just done nothing both jumpers would likely have lived. This summer has seen at least seven fatalities due to canopy collisions, five of which were in California. http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b96_1254190491 3772018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites georger 268 #13296 September 29, 2009 Georger, your thoughts on the dredging theory as to how the money got to Tena Bar? 377 There were dredge silts placed and spread on Tina Bar. Whether the money was above or below the dredge layer or even off to the side, chances are good the money was contaminated to some extent by the dredging silt simply by being in proximity with that material coupled with hydrological effects mixing materials around and together over time. I would not be surprised at all if the money showed signs of having been in proximity to the dredge silts even if the money was not carried on shore with the dredge deposits. Tom Kaye claims the money was well removed from the dredge deposit(s) and thus in a pristine environment. Im not sure of Kaye's timeline now. We may never-ever hear more from Tom Kaye and that is a shame. We know what Dr. Palmer thought. Tom Kaye says Palmer was wrong, but again Mr. Kaye has not come forth to say anything publically. If I had to guess I would say Mr. Kaye has no firm idea how the money got to Tina Bar. In addition, Mr. Kaye does not have the lab facilities to make he full body of tests which might shed light on this matter. I do know something of the historical record in this matter, as follows: Following the discovery of the money and Crystal Ingram turning in the last 4 bills, the FBI did not just sit and speculate but through a number of agents and resources the FBI sought and obtained a series of forensic reports in an effort to shed light on the history of the money, its path, etc. The money was examined forensically not just for finger prints but for other evidence. This resulted in a series of technical reports completely distinct from the Palmer and other reports we have heard of to date, in this forum. These examinations brought in a series of experts distinct from the names we have heard in this forum to date. Examinations of sand and silt were conducted. Other tests were applied. The FBI made a real effort to identify traits in the money which would yield anything regarding the money's path of travel and a timeline for its deposit on Tina Bar. Most of this work was done in 1980. So, when Tom Kaye and I and others volunteered to do new testing of the money it was (in my mind) off the back of these previous tests that we were working, and so far as I know we did break some new ground. We found traits in the money which no previous test(s) had documented previously and our results are unimpeachable. And, about as I expected, further tests would be required to expand upon our work which might finally answer a few basic questions concerning timelines and geo-hydro paths of travel, or not. Ckret helped us as much as he could given his knowledge base. Tom went to Seattle to search records. Let me be very clear about one thing. Yes, some money was contaminated by finger print analysis, but the bulk of the money was not. Even with finger printing contamination some results obtained by Mr. Kaye are NOT affected by the presence of silver nitrate contamination. Some of Tom's results stand on their own and are results not previously obtained, to my knowledge. This is one reason Tom is reluctant to say much even now - In addition, of the test the FBI was able to obtain on the money in 1980 and beyond, there is not strict continuity in the results of these tests. In other words there is no single unilateral result pointing in one single direction but a mix of results and there is nothing to my knowledge which points exclusively 'or proves' the Washougal washdown theory. We have a mix of results which could imply several scenarios, as I read this matter. In other words, Jerry Thomas (so far as I know) has no data which proves Cooper landed in the Washougal and the money flowed from the Washougal to Tina Bar. And just as importantly, nothing definitively proves the money arrived on the bar with dredging materials although that is not totally ruled out! Palmer's report which ruled out money arriving on the bar with dredge material, stands on its own. Palmer was very confident based on his examination of strata. On the other hand I am critical of the manner inw hich Palmer's excavation was conducted and the lack of tests which could easily have been done. Maybe tests were done and I just dont know about it, but at this late date I find that a little hard to believe or we would already have had some sign of such tests, from somebody who has been involved in this matter over the last 37+ years. I personally lack the data to make a decision at this moment. That is my answer. But there are hard facts in the money which require a firm explanation, not addressed to date. What I am trying to convey here is the FBI made a good faith effort to examine the money forensically. Himmelsbach was almost secondary in all of this. This involved other agents, experts, and resources. The effort began almost immediately after Crystal Ingram coughed up the last 4 bills the Ingrams had retained for personal 'commemerence'. This effort was managed by the FBI's forensic section, not by Agent Himmelsbach. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
georger 268 #13277 September 29, 2009 Quote377: "Georger makes a very convincing quantitative argument of how unlikely it would have been, but it doesn't rule it out." If i'm driving down the highway with you hanging out the door...and I'm going 100 mph, and we're driving towards a telephone pole, and I say..."Look, there's hay right after the telephone pole, just jump when you see the telephone pole." It's the only telephone pole for 70 miles. How likely is it that you hit the telephone pole and die? That's why georger's last analysis doesn't really work. The analysis of a 12-15 second window is interesting. If you see the lights of Portland and Vancouver and jump, you're likely in the Columbia. (or the Williamette, but that's smaller) There is a reference to a young person finding a body on the Columbia that night, but when they returned with a sheriff or LE, the supposed body wasn't there. I have to find that story. why? did you hit the telephone pole and are now groping for an explanation? In any event you cant use an assumption to justify a flight path which in turn justifies the assumption. Yes. There is a story about a boy finding a body, in a second version the body is hanging from a tree. Another crop circle story without the crop circle! If we found a body beside the river could we know if the body came by the river or was simply dumped by the river. Probably. We look for water in the lungs or other signs. If the bodywas dead prior to being in the river we look for other telltale signs. But if we find footprints and tirte tracks behind the body then its a fair bet the body was dumped. Were there fragments leading back up the bank at Tina Bar as opposed to strung out in a linear shape parallel to theriver? Is there anything in the money which proves it came by the river as opposed to having arrived by land and sat for a long time? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
georger 268 #13278 September 29, 2009 Quote Quote 377: "Georger makes a very convincing quantitative argument of how unlikely it would have been, but it doesn't rule it out." If i'm driving down the highway with you hanging out the door...and I'm going 100 mph, and we're driving towards a telephone pole, and I say..."Look, there's hay right after the telephone pole, just jump when you see the telephone pole." It's the only telephone pole for 70 miles. How likely is it that you hit the telephone pole and die? That's why georger's last analysis doesn't really work. Snow is right and skydivers know this. How many skydivers have managed to hit the only obstacle in a large clear area? Object fixation. I'm outta here for a few days...keep the good stuff going guys You have said this before. Snowmman has brought the idea up before. His example does not guarantee hitting the pole vs other options. It may guarantee the corpse (if there even is a corpse) is found in the same county. Youc all this Object fixation. I dont see any object fixation in Snow's example. I see you and Snow fixated on the idea that there may be Object Fixation, which Snow's example is not an example of ? An example of object fixation is when a driver sees a distant object, steers to it while being distracted on his texting phone, keeps texting, keeps steering, and boom! Thathappens all the time around here. Morons and cell phones. Thats why our Legislature is going to ban the damn things while driving, because bad drivers ARE bad drivers. If not a cell phone it would/is something else. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
georger 268 #13279 September 29, 2009 QuoteIf Cooper had spotted on the Columbia and deployed, he maybe wouldn't have landed in the Columbia. If he spotted on the Columbia and didn't deploy, he would probably land in the Columbia? What about that idea, 377? It would be interesting if he deployed and landed in the Columbia. I was thinking the canopy would have been found, but from our discussions, I'm thinking not, now. Is there anything about the money or money find that requires it was ever IN the Columbia? Fazio says high tide but his is a one dimensional response. He's reaching for the closest simple explanation (which does not fit the find data). Fazio hadnt the faintest clue there was money on his property (we assume?) until the Ingram find. One idiotic version of this story (I have been told) is that Fazio knew all along there was old (Cooper?) money out on his bar wasting away, but didnt call it in because .......... ??? Is there anything about a single high tide that could explain any of the forensic facts of the money at Tina Bar, or multiple high tides, or other common facts of Nature at Tina Bar stretched out over time of which high tides are but one component? Would any of this be different if the money arrived by land vs by the river? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowmman 3 #13280 September 29, 2009 McPheters was on FBI SWAT in Miami and dealt with hijackings. Interestingly (for 377), their weapons couldn't always penetrate 747 tires "One of my supervisors, Bob Strong, quickly discovered that our standard issue thirty-eight caliber rounds would not penetrate the tires on the larger aircraft, when he attempted to do just that on a Boeing 747 ...during a skyjacking in Miami. This incident helped us realize that the FBI's garden-variety type weapons, even our 12 gauge shotguns and sniper rifles, could not always deflate the tires on the big planes. Soon we turned to other mechanical means to stop the aircraft..." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowmman 3 #13281 September 29, 2009 georger said "Yes. There is a story about a boy finding a body, in a second version the body is hanging from a tree. Another crop circle story without the crop circle!" No it's not that story. It was in a news article, not a blog/forum posting. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowmman 3 #13282 September 29, 2009 Georger said "Would any of this be different if the money arrived by land vs by the river?" Why would there be fragments over a larger area, if it arrived by land? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowmman 3 #13283 September 29, 2009 Our only hope on getting more real data on the Ingram money find is with Bruce and McPheters. I'm wondering if there were some FBI reports that were lost, or written in Portland that never got to the Seattle collection. Ckret seemed clueless about extra fragments. I thought he said the bundles were all there were. I remember because I was thinking the fragment stories in the news were wrong. (edit) looking at some of Ckret's early posts, Ckret somehow had the idea that rubber bands couldn't be preserved on Tena Bar, (say from 1974) but that they could be preserved elsewhere..i.e. some other river. I think he thought the bag was some magic preserving agent, but that sand was not as good a preserving agent. I don't know where he got this idea. Seems wrong. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
georger 268 #13284 September 29, 2009 Quotegeorger said "Yes. There is a story about a boy finding a body, in a second version the body is hanging from a tree. Another crop circle story without the crop circle!" No it's not that story. It was in a news article, not a blog/forum posting. yes, a news article from the early period just after the hijacking. Forget which newspaper... Sluggo may know. Father and his son as I recall at some place on the Columbia. Boy came running back and reported a body in a tree, the father never went to check but called it in when they got home, deputies went to look with the father and boy and found nothing... this is one version I recall. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
georger 268 #13285 September 29, 2009 QuoteGeorger said "Would any of this be different if the money arrived by land vs by the river?" Why would there be fragments over a larger area, if it arrived by land? Think about it! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
georger 268 #13286 September 29, 2009 QuoteOur only hope on getting more real data on the Ingram money find is with Bruce and McPheters. I'm wondering if there were some FBI reports that were lost, or written in Portland that never got to the Seattle collection. Ckret seemed clueless about extra fragments. I thought he said the bundles were all there were. I remember because I was thinking the fragment stories in the news were wrong. (edit) looking at some of Ckret's early posts, Ckret somehow had the idea that rubber bands couldn't be preserved on Tena Bar, (say from 1974) but that they could be preserved elsewhere..i.e. some other river. I think he thought the bag was some magic preserving agent, but that sand was not as good a preserving agent. I don't know where he got this idea. Seems wrong. why would a rookie assigned to other FULL TIME duties who just picked up the case on his personal time be up to speed on anything in this case? It is remarkable he did as well as he did. I wouldnt be up to speed. You wouldnt either. Nobody would. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nigel99 610 #13287 September 29, 2009 Quote Quote 377: "Georger makes a very convincing quantitative argument of how unlikely it would have been, but it doesn't rule it out." If i'm driving down the highway with you hanging out the door...and I'm going 100 mph, and we're driving towards a telephone pole, and I say..."Look, there's hay right after the telephone pole, just jump when you see the telephone pole." It's the only telephone pole for 70 miles. How likely is it that you hit the telephone pole and die? That's why georger's last analysis doesn't really work. Snow is right and skydivers know this. How many skydivers have managed to hit the only obstacle in a large clear area? Object fixation. I'm outta here for a few days...keep the good stuff going guys It isn't object fixation (especially when you have a non-stearable parachute). BUT it is one of those twists of fate that appears to happen more often than is rational. At my DZ we had a stream about 10-15 foot wide and it was amazing just how many people landed in it over the years. I've also seen someone land do a stand-up landing right onto a barbed wire fence on a T-10! It was extremely funny as the fence was pinned under his feet with alot of tension and he was fine until he tried to step off.Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
377 22 #13288 September 29, 2009 That T10 barbed wire landing is amazing. Calculate those odds. There were a number of student jumpers at my DZ who had the expected results with barbed wire. I remember tremendous anxiety going backwards in the air under a C 9 round towards barbed wire and thinking I should have run downwind to clear it. Never hit any but had some very close encounters. If Cooper landed alive with the loot but in a major river it would be the most awful feeling. I hope it didn't happen that way. The DZ at Livermore CA was huge and had only one hazard: a vertical metal pole for the windsock. Not only did jumpers hit it with improbable frequency but a jumper-pilot hit it buzzing the DZ in a plane and crashed. He survived but his girlfriend passenger didn't. 3772018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowmman 3 #13289 September 29, 2009 I was wondering about how sediment accumulates in the Columbia Interesting slides here (attached) Has some historical charts Mostly, I was thinking about Tosaw searching in the low-flow areas of the Columbia. But sediment drops in the higher flow areas, the shipping channels, which is why they have to dredge them. I was thinking of whether cooper and money could have ended up in the higher flow areas. Interesting comments about PDO cycle here cold PDO years are La Niña warm PDO years are El Niño • Columbia River flow varies with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cycle • Climate-related fluctuations in sand input are larger than those in flow • Most sand transport occurs as suspended load during freshets • Dredging volumes are correlated with flow and sand supply • We are trying to understand a data-poor system PDO and Columbia R. Flow, 1858-2000 -- • CR flow exhibits large variability over 20-50 years • Cold-PDO years since 1946 include very high flows • Low-flow, warm PDO periods like 1977-95 have occurred for only ~40-45 years since 1890 • The 1980-95 period is not typical of the last 140 years PDO and Columbia R. Flow, 1946-2000: • Cold PDO: 1946-76, mean Beaver flow 7,325 m3s-1 1996-00, mean Beaver flow 8,090 m3s-1 • Warm PDO: 1977-95: mean Beaver flow 6,210 m3s-1 • Cold/Warm PDO differ by a 20+% • Ten years during 1980-95 are in the lowest third of all flow years since 1878 Sediment Transport Amplifies Climate Effects: • Sediment transport varies with flow QR as QR n, n>1 • For total load, n ~ 2.5; for sand, n ~ 3.5 • There are seasonal changes in SPM quality (e.g., size and organic content that are poorly understood) • This amplification is an important aspect of how modest climate changes have large ecosystem effects, e.g., on salmonids Sand Transport, 1946-99 • Cold PDO: 1946-76, CR+WR 4.5 x106 mt tons yr-1 1970-76, 1996-99, CR+WR 3.3 x106 mt tons yr-1 • Warm PDO: 1977-95: CR+WR ~1 x106 mt tons yr-1* • Warm/cold PDO sand transports differ by factor of 3-4 *1980 and 1981 exclude Mt. St. Helens sand input Dredging Volumes -- • Seven high-flow years since 1976: 12.2 ±2.3 x106 mt tons yr-1 (±95% conf limits) • Sixteen low-flow years since 1976: 7.4 ±1.2 x106 mt tons yr-1 (±95% conf limits) • Ratio for highflow years to lowflow years is 1.65 • EIS Projected dredging is 6.3 x106 mt tons yr-1 Dredging and Hydrology: • Dredging is correlated with flow, R2 ~0.3- 0.5 (depending on the model used) and with sand transport, R2 ~0.3- 0.6 • Best results obtained when current year of dredging is compared to the past two years of flow or sand transport • There appears to be a base dredging level of ~2-3 x 106 yd3 full docs good http://www.sei.org/columbia/downloads/jay1.PDF http://www.sei.org/columbia/downloads/jay2.PDF Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
377 22 #13290 September 29, 2009 QuoteI was thinking of whether cooper and money could have ended up in the higher flow areas. Certainly possible. If he had an open canopy would it have increased or decreased the chances of being swept into and/or along higher flow areas? Wonder if he knew how to release the Capewell riser attach fitting on his NB6 (8?) to release the canopy after a water landing? Sometimes the canopies trap air after a water landing and can be used for floatation for a while. If Cooper died on a river landing who was he? Why wasn't he missed? I doubt if even Braden could have survived a Winter night landing in the Columbia. A Whuffo wouldn't stand a chance. You sure find a lot of interesting stuff on dredging, sediment transport, etc Snow. I am leaning towards dredging as the way the money got to Tena Bar. Georger, your thoughts on the dredging theory as to how the money got to Tena Bar? 3772018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nigel99 610 #13291 September 29, 2009 Probabilities/odds Snowmman or Georger posted a map with a green flight line crossing the river. For some reason I never connected that the flight path was so close to Tena Bar. Honestly having seen that and the money find I believe that Cooper is sleeping with the fishes. My thoughts are that whether he was under a parachute or not he made a splash and the money got transported in the river - it is the "simplest" explanation.Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
377 22 #13292 September 29, 2009 Bad spots, round canopies, together they can really be a bitch. Been there, but not on a stormy winter night over the Columbia. 3772018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowmman 3 #13293 September 29, 2009 Quotenigel said: Snowmman or Georger posted a map with a green flight line crossing the river. For some reason I never connected that the flight path was so close to Tena Bar. Honestly having seen that and the money find I believe that Cooper is sleeping with the fishes. My thoughts are that whether he was under a parachute or not he made a splash and the money got transported in the river - it is the "simplest" explanation. with respect to flight line: There were two lines. One is approximately the V23 airway (green), per Sluggo. The other is the flight path (light blue) copied from the FBI map. It's got more turns, curvier. It has 1 minute interval locations. The "minute" designations are per the FBI map, not corrected for likely 1 minute error issue. Note that the light blue flight path is an approximation. maybe +-1NM variance worst case? Also, in between the radar marks, the plane likely curved more. The flight path showed straight lines between the 1 minute ticks In any case, both paths get close together at I-5 when it crosses the Columbia. Flight 305 strayed off V-23 mostly before it got to PDX. I suppose since it had to fly around PDX (counterclockwise), that reoriented it. We've explored this a lot before. Maybe what's new now is that we've explored a lot of other options, so it's easier to have a different opinion of things.. The bill fragment story appears to be stronger. The black on the bills info seems resolved. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowmman 3 #13294 September 29, 2009 377 said "Wonder if he knew how to release the Capewell riser attach fitting on his NB6 (8?) to release the canopy after a water landing?" Capewells? I thought we went thru this. I thought there was no emergency release? from Poynter: "The Navy still does not have releases on any back, seat or chest assemblies where the harness is attached directly to the container (NB-6, NC-3, NS-3). ..." Poynter talks of Navy use of Rocket Jet releases on other rigs http://books.google.com/books?id=BKTuTXrXQu0C&pg=PA125&lpg=PA125&dq=nb-6+capewell&source=bl&ots=n_rlxp9TYo&sig=qplHR0hD6k6zMAHwajhDhXmrqu4&hl=en&ei=u1XCSvzeMITisQPXrvjqAg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4#v=onepage&q=nb-6%20capewell&f=false He says the Army and Air Force used Capewells. "..the Navy was using three quick ejector snaps. Rather than jettison the canopy, the user would unhook the three snaps and remove the whole assembly" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
377 22 #13295 September 29, 2009 Right you are Snow, I forgot. Some surplus gear was extensively modified by riggers for sport jumping but if Cossey said the NB 6 was stock then it had no Capewells. Seems like a bad design by the Navy. If you are getting dragged by winds your chances of getting out of the harness are not so good, even with ejector snaps on the harness straps. Even releasing one Capewell will collapse the canopy and is a lot esasier to do than finding and releasing a harness strap while being dragged. Sometimes making releases too easy to operate causes problems with inexperienced jumpers. This video (dont watch it if you are squeamish) shows a panicked jumper releasing his main after a low altitude canopy collision. It happened a few days ago in Brazil. Had he remained calm and just done nothing both jumpers would likely have lived. This summer has seen at least seven fatalities due to canopy collisions, five of which were in California. http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b96_1254190491 3772018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
georger 268 #13296 September 29, 2009 Georger, your thoughts on the dredging theory as to how the money got to Tena Bar? 377 There were dredge silts placed and spread on Tina Bar. Whether the money was above or below the dredge layer or even off to the side, chances are good the money was contaminated to some extent by the dredging silt simply by being in proximity with that material coupled with hydrological effects mixing materials around and together over time. I would not be surprised at all if the money showed signs of having been in proximity to the dredge silts even if the money was not carried on shore with the dredge deposits. Tom Kaye claims the money was well removed from the dredge deposit(s) and thus in a pristine environment. Im not sure of Kaye's timeline now. We may never-ever hear more from Tom Kaye and that is a shame. We know what Dr. Palmer thought. Tom Kaye says Palmer was wrong, but again Mr. Kaye has not come forth to say anything publically. If I had to guess I would say Mr. Kaye has no firm idea how the money got to Tina Bar. In addition, Mr. Kaye does not have the lab facilities to make he full body of tests which might shed light on this matter. I do know something of the historical record in this matter, as follows: Following the discovery of the money and Crystal Ingram turning in the last 4 bills, the FBI did not just sit and speculate but through a number of agents and resources the FBI sought and obtained a series of forensic reports in an effort to shed light on the history of the money, its path, etc. The money was examined forensically not just for finger prints but for other evidence. This resulted in a series of technical reports completely distinct from the Palmer and other reports we have heard of to date, in this forum. These examinations brought in a series of experts distinct from the names we have heard in this forum to date. Examinations of sand and silt were conducted. Other tests were applied. The FBI made a real effort to identify traits in the money which would yield anything regarding the money's path of travel and a timeline for its deposit on Tina Bar. Most of this work was done in 1980. So, when Tom Kaye and I and others volunteered to do new testing of the money it was (in my mind) off the back of these previous tests that we were working, and so far as I know we did break some new ground. We found traits in the money which no previous test(s) had documented previously and our results are unimpeachable. And, about as I expected, further tests would be required to expand upon our work which might finally answer a few basic questions concerning timelines and geo-hydro paths of travel, or not. Ckret helped us as much as he could given his knowledge base. Tom went to Seattle to search records. Let me be very clear about one thing. Yes, some money was contaminated by finger print analysis, but the bulk of the money was not. Even with finger printing contamination some results obtained by Mr. Kaye are NOT affected by the presence of silver nitrate contamination. Some of Tom's results stand on their own and are results not previously obtained, to my knowledge. This is one reason Tom is reluctant to say much even now - In addition, of the test the FBI was able to obtain on the money in 1980 and beyond, there is not strict continuity in the results of these tests. In other words there is no single unilateral result pointing in one single direction but a mix of results and there is nothing to my knowledge which points exclusively 'or proves' the Washougal washdown theory. We have a mix of results which could imply several scenarios, as I read this matter. In other words, Jerry Thomas (so far as I know) has no data which proves Cooper landed in the Washougal and the money flowed from the Washougal to Tina Bar. And just as importantly, nothing definitively proves the money arrived on the bar with dredging materials although that is not totally ruled out! Palmer's report which ruled out money arriving on the bar with dredge material, stands on its own. Palmer was very confident based on his examination of strata. On the other hand I am critical of the manner inw hich Palmer's excavation was conducted and the lack of tests which could easily have been done. Maybe tests were done and I just dont know about it, but at this late date I find that a little hard to believe or we would already have had some sign of such tests, from somebody who has been involved in this matter over the last 37+ years. I personally lack the data to make a decision at this moment. That is my answer. But there are hard facts in the money which require a firm explanation, not addressed to date. What I am trying to convey here is the FBI made a good faith effort to examine the money forensically. Himmelsbach was almost secondary in all of this. This involved other agents, experts, and resources. The effort began almost immediately after Crystal Ingram coughed up the last 4 bills the Ingrams had retained for personal 'commemerence'. This effort was managed by the FBI's forensic section, not by Agent Himmelsbach. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowmman 3 #13297 September 29, 2009 thanks for the summary georger. you said "This effort was managed by the FBI's forensic section, not by Agent Himmelsbach." Well remember the timing of Himmelsbach's retiring. He retired at the end of Feb, 1980 (or first week of March) The money was found Feb 10, 1980. Since the forensic work would have taken time, Himmelsbach was out of the loop (except as agents saw fit to consult with him, if they did at all). Himmelsbach's information regime at best covers up to the money find. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowmman 3 #13298 September 29, 2009 the forensics may have been biased by a belief in the "cooper jumped in the woods" theory. If the forensics had been told "We have no idea where Cooper jumped"...would their data had been written up differently? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
georger 268 #13299 September 29, 2009 Himmelsbach's information regime at best covers up to the money find. What "Himmelsbach's information regime" ? Have you proof one ever existed? Exists now? You make it sound as if it was H calling all shots and directing-controling everything. That was NOT the case. Just more conspiracy theory on your part - Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowmman 3 #13300 September 29, 2009 I said before I'd post on this. I think there was more than one. Sad story for this guy. Good detail on back story of the first hijack here (it's Northwest Orient) http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=ZFoLAAAAIBAJ&sjid=8FIDAAAAIBAJ&pg=4844,1176568&dq=feb+10+hijack+money 2nd hijack (interestingly same Flight 608. 727-200) ended in his death attached...Glen Kurt Tripp Two hijacks were only separated by 2-1/2 years. He was on probation for the first. FBI did say they would have handled it differently if they knew who he was. http://www.nytimes.com/1983/01/22/us/fbi-tells-of-troubles-of-coast-jet-s-hijacker.html Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sad story for this guy.
Good detail on back story of the first hijack here (it's Northwest Orient)
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=ZFoLAAAAIBAJ&sjid=8FIDAAAAIBAJ&pg=4844,1176568&dq=feb+10+hijack+money
2nd hijack (interestingly same Flight 608. 727-200) ended in his death
attached...Glen Kurt Tripp
Two hijacks were only separated by 2-1/2 years.
He was on probation for the first.
FBI did say they would have handled it differently if they knew who he was.
http://www.nytimes.com/1983/01/22/us/fbi-tells-of-troubles-of-coast-jet-s-hijacker.html
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