snowmman 3
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Orange1 0
QuoteQuoteQuoteQuoteQuote
I argued these same points endlessly as a student.
My prof just laughed. I said: "people are not rats".
He just laughed. It turned out on a statistical basis
he was correct. People often are predictable...
Law of large numbers. Predictable on the average, but no-one would go so far as to say you could predict every individual.
Incidentally technical analysis is, at its basis, predicting human behaviour. I've seen someone use Elliot wave analysis to predict - correctly and right in front of me - the behaviour of people at a rock concert!
free choice is limited in such a venue.
It's easy to predict the behavior of prisoners in a prison also.
Or people driving cars on a road.
The problem is when you can convince large numbers to throw away the existing constraints. Just reject them. That's what causes unpredictable. The box gets thrown away and replaced by a different box.
Predict the next revolution.
Actually, that's more or less what it was... someone flashed the camera (which relayed to the screens) and then we went through a perfect EW cycle of women flashing for the camera. By wave 2 he said "that's the 2nd wave' then said what would happen in waves 3, 4 and 5 when it would end...and he was right.
Hmm. interesting.
But: you don't know much about the rate of flashing.
What you know is the rate that the flashing was displayed on the video screen? So what you know more about is what the camera people thought the audience might like, and at what rates?
Is the DJ reacting to the dancers? Or is the DJ controlling the dancers?
Were people still flashing after the video stopped? Who knows.
Wasn't a "DJ". The concert hadn't started yet and the video was panning the crowd when the first mover (a la wave 1) flashed ..and then they panned hoping for more, some responded... But you could hear from the audience reaction that by wave 5 they had clearly lost enthusiasm... go read an overview of EW and particularly what it says about volume in each wave. The last/wave 5 flasher (who looked rather embarrassed at the lack of applause) was i guess the equivalent of the man in the street who buys up the market right at the top. Hey, I don't think much of TA but it was pretty interesting - this guy has been trading using EW for years btw.
Skydiving: wasting fossil fuels just for fun.
snowmman 3
Quote
Wasn't a "DJ". The concert hadn't started yet and the video was panning the crowd when the first mover (a la wave 1) flashed ..and then they panned hoping for more, some responded... But you could hear from the audience reaction that by wave 5 they had clearly lost enthusiasm... go read an overview of EW and particularly what it says about volume in each wave. The last/wave 5 flasher (who looked rather embarrassed at the lack of applause) was i guess the equivalent of the man in the street who buys up the market right at the top. Hey, I don't think much of TA but it was pretty interesting - this guy has been trading using EW for years btw.
sounds like you're right then.
I was looking at hijackers who asked for money and parachutes after cooper. A couple of international. Guy in italy who had his own parachute in his luggage (this was 1972). A bunch of them got shot.
I suppose you could model the increase and then decrease of parachute+ransom hijacks as elliot wave?
Here's another bizarre thing. Everyone's see the pic of the guy with the AR-15 at the political speech? (it's funny how the gun guys just decided, it was important to focus national attention on "open carry" now, as opposed to any other time)
Predict the rate of AR-15's showing up at national political events. (Elliot Wave?) Interestingly it mirrors the Panthers doing open carries back in the '70s.
I have this vision of 100 people with AR-15's at a rally. Someone takes a shot, or maybe something backfires, and all of a sudden everyone's opening up on everyone else.
When the smoke clears, everyone realizes how dumb it was for 100 random people to show up with AR-15s in a public place.
georger 267
QuoteQuoteProvided the door is open you have a state of equilibrium and there is no airflow into the aircraft. There is obviously turbulance at the rear of the aircraft - but you will find that in most case inside the plane it is quite calm.
On the unpressurized DC 9-21 jet jumpship the cabin had no rushing air at all, very calm even during jumps. The only anomoly was the "whoosh-thunk" mild but very noticeable presure bumps as each jumper exited.
377
So 'woosh-thunk' is one combined event?
Thunk is a pressure event? Woosh is an audio
event heard bepore the exprience of the pressure
event 'thuink'? Can you give a timeline of the
two events?
How far back in the cavity of the aircraft is this 'thunk' felt?
Does this apply to side door and rear exists or
just side door exits?
georger 267
Quoteorange1 said "Georger, you can ask safe, but one of the reasons i didn't like micro much (apart from all the math )was because of the idea that you could express how people "should" behave in terms of a mathematical equation and assume all sorts of things on the basis of that.. so as you can gather i'd be sceptical that game theory (or any of construct) can tell us"
there are other problems
1) A systems's ability to enforce the "rules" is always flawed. Game theory needs to take that into account. (think of flawed court systems; lax enforcement of stock market "rules", etc)
2) In reality there is no such thing as absolute standards for benefits to individuals. It's all relative.
3) It's always different in South Africa.
4) The best strategy is always the one that's not been modelled by anyone yet. Once it's modelled, it's predictable. A predictable strategy is no longer optimal, since others will try to take advantage of the prediction. See "the stock market".
5) The Ted Braden effect. Hetrick, a rational player, assumes any possible behavior for Braden is possible..i.e. Braden has superpowers relative to what Hetrick believes people normally expect from people.
The thing is: is it a Braden effect, or a Hetrick effect? Can't tell, since it's all relative. No absolutes.
Special circumstances can be built into a game
model to skew the decision making particular
player may do, but generally 'rational decision
maker (or player) is defined by a rather broad
set of statistical paramaters based on actual
sampling of people before hand.
Example: if we calculate a random walk involving
a walker with one leg longer than the other, then
the walk ceases to be random, obviously. And in
fact right handed people tend to random walk
differently than left handed people.
A random game simply serves as a baseline
for comparing other games...
377 22
QuoteSo 'woosh-thunk' is one combined event?
Thunk is a pressure event? Woosh is an audio
event heard bepore the exprience of the pressure
event 'thuink'? Can you give a timeline of the
two events?
How far back in the cavity of the aircraft is this 'thunk' felt?
Does this apply to side door and rear exists or
just side door exits?
My whoosh thunk isnt very scientific, just trying to approximate the sound and feel of the event. The whoosh seemed to occur as the jumper was transitioning through the hull opening and the thunk happened just after exit. The whole sequence took about 716 milliseconds, which of course is also a guess.
You could feel the thunk way forward in the cabin far away from the open ventral door. I never paid much attention to the acoustics of exits prior to this jet jump so I can't really answer your other questions.
I remember thinking, as I was still in my seat, "hey, I can count every single jumper exit with my eyes closed." I continued to perceive the whoosh and thunk as I got out of my seat and marched towards the exit with the other jumpers.
377
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
georger 267
Quote
Sturgeon's Law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_Law
"90% of everything is crap"
Gleik's Law: There is order within disorder. Very hi
probability. Quantum physics and Nature are built
on this premise.
georger 267
QuoteQuoteSo 'woosh-thunk' is one combined event?
Thunk is a pressure event? Woosh is an audio
event heard bepore the exprience of the pressure
event 'thuink'? Can you give a timeline of the
two events?
How far back in the cavity of the aircraft is this 'thunk' felt?
Does this apply to side door and rear exists or
just side door exits?
My whoosh thunk isnt very scientific, just trying to approximate the sound and feel of the event. The whoosh seemed to occur as the jumper was transitioning through the hull opening and the thunk happened just after exit. The whole sequence took about 716 milliseconds, which of course is also a guess.
You could feel the thunk way forward in the cabin far away from the open ventral door. I never paid much attention to the acoustics of exits prior to this jet jump so I can't really answer your other questions.
I remember thinking, as I was still in my seat, "hey, I can count every single jumper exit with my eyes closed." I continued to perceive the whoosh and thunk as I got out of my seat and marched towards the exit with the other jumpers.
377
No I think you did answer the question, well.
Two events; Woosh audible as the air engages
the guy moving through door - thats turbulence.
Thunk (pressure event) "just after exit" just as
you said - which is air rushing in to displace the
man's volume now moving away from the side
of the aircraft. (Its basically like high velocity
air rushing to fill a vacuum - slap! You do the reverse of this when you clap your hands. A clap
pushes air out quickly. The thunk is air rushing
in to fill a volume of mass, where the man's body
was at t1. ) Like you said: it takes only 700 millisecs.
We could model this nicely.
The thunk is hi velocity air moving into to fill a void
where the man's body was introduced into the air
flow and took up space. But the body is moving
away quickly. The void is moving quickly. The air
slaps back in to fill the void. All in microsconds.
This would create a violent pressure event and Im
not surprised you could feel it (hear it) some distance away clear into the hollow of the airplane.
This was at the ventral door, you say. What's the ventral door? Front side door? Or rear door?
Does the thunk pressure event happen at both
doors as a jumper exists? Or only at the side
door?
sorry for all the questions!
377 22
QuoteThis was at the ventral door, you say. What's the ventral door? Front side door? Or rear door?
Does the thunk pressure event happen at both
doors as a jumper exists? Or only at the side
door?
sorry for all the questions! You gave great answers!
Ventral door is rear of plane on bottom of fuselage. See my exit photo attached. If you look up at the DC 9, you can see the open ventral door.
I really don't know what happens on side door exits, I just never paid much attention. Nothing perceivable happens on rear exits through BIG tailgate openings, like on CASAs or SkyVans or C 130 Hercs. The DC 9 opening was quite small in comparison.
377
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
Erroll 80
Quote
Sturgeon's Law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_Law
"90% of everything is crap"
Indeed.
georger 267
Ive been searching for airflow data orQuoteQuoteThis was at the ventral door, you say. What's the ventral door? Front side door? Or rear door?
Does the thunk pressure event happen at both
doors as a jumper exists? Or only at the side
door?
sorry for all the questions! You gave great answers!
Ventral door is rear of plane on bottom of fuselage. See my exit photo attached. If you look up at the DC 9, you can see the open ventral door.
I really don't know what happens on side door exits, I just never paid much attention. Nothing perceivable happens on rear exits through BIG tailgate openings, like on CASAs or SkyVans or C 130 Hercs. The DC 9 opening was quite small in comparison.
377
an airflow chart for the 727-200 (especially
at the rear) and found nothing.
Sorry.
377 22
QuoteQuote
Sturgeon's Law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_Law
"90% of everything is crap"
Indeed.
***STURGEON's law... hmmm
Sturgeon live in the Columbia.
Duane tossed something into the Columbia.
Perhaps we should be looking at live Sturgeon not dead dogs.
A Sturgeon ate Duane's bag of decayed money that he tossed off the bridge. It was caught soon after at Tena Bar and gutted. The stomach casing rotted away leaving the money which was not seen by the fisherman because it was concealed inside the guts.
If the propeller snag theory is viable so is the Sturgeon transport model.
377
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
Orange1 0
is there a crawfish theory?
as in..crawfish ate cooper and that's why no-one can find him?
as in..crawfish ate cooper and that's why no-one can find him?
Skydiving: wasting fossil fuels just for fun.
snowmman 3
QuoteQuote
Sturgeon's Law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_Law
"90% of everything is crap"
Indeed.
Thanks for the compliment. I know I have the most quality posts here (10% of 3227 = 322), but you needn't draw attention to it...I already feel good enough about it.
How many pellets does a claymore disperse? How many need to be quality?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M18A1_Claymore_Antipersonnel_Mine
Sturgeon's law can be a strategy, not a dis.
(edit) Orange1: today's meme: suboptimization
http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/suboptim.html
Orange1 0
suboptimization - yup, tragedy of the commons type stuff. it is very interesting stuff actually, but someone else can do it
Skydiving: wasting fossil fuels just for fun.
snowmman 3
Quotesuboptimization - yup, tragedy of the commons type stuff. it is very interesting stuff actually, but someone else can do it
I predicted that response, along with some revolutions.
:)
georger 267
Quoteis there a crawfish theory?
as in..crawfish ate cooper and that's why no-one can find him?
The Killer Crawafish are in Lousiana.
In Washington its Big Foot (3rd cousin of Yeti).
In Ioway its da Guppie! Rarely seen. Lives in mud.
lodestar 0
I've been trying to make sense of this thread and having said that, I can only but ignore the brilliance of your collective intellect and return to the unconscious vastness if unknowing. Give me ambiguity or give me something else....
377 22
QuoteGive me ambiguity or give me something else....
I'll give you both: Jo has proof that Duane Weber was Dan Cooper.
Is your Lodestar screen name from Lockheed plane of the same name? I loved that plane although it sure had a blemished safety record in jumping. Got some cross country time flying right seat in a Learstar, a go fast mod of the Lodestar. 300 MPH!
377
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
georger 267
QuoteI've been trying to make sense of this thread and having said that, I can only but ignore the brilliance of your collective intellect and return to the unconscious vastness if unknowing. Give me ambiguity or give me something else....
Did you find anything else interesting in
this thread?
377 22
I see a wave or tidal phenomena on this forum. Slack tide right now.
Orange, what does Elliott tell us about this? When will things pick up? I need my DBC fix.
Jumping again this Sunday. Great WX and $17 jumps are just too tempting. Flew in the tunnel last night, 14.1 miles from home. The SF Bay Area really is skydive paradise.
377
Orange, what does Elliott tell us about this? When will things pick up? I need my DBC fix.
Jumping again this Sunday. Great WX and $17 jumps are just too tempting. Flew in the tunnel last night, 14.1 miles from home. The SF Bay Area really is skydive paradise.
377
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
georger 267
QuoteI see a wave or tidal phenomena on this forum. Slack tide right now.
Orange, what does Elliott tell us about this? When will things pick up? I need my DBC fix.
Jumping again this Sunday. Great WX and $17 jumps are just too tempting. Flew in the tunnel last night, 14.1 miles from home. The SF Bay Area really is skydive paradise.
377
Since we cant solve the case (due to massive
intreference fromthe Govt and wannabes)
it occurs to me to ask: is there a Cooper bar drink?
I mean a "DBC" or a "Cooper" or some such. ?
If not we should come up with one and get it into
the lexicon. I knowsome hi profile bar tenders!
Here's to ya -
I am at lost to find something I have searched for - yrs. I might as well let you guys think I have lost it, but here goes.
During the early yrs I told Himmelsbach and others what I could about Duane. I mentioned anything I thought might be of value.
377 - this is one of those (like the 3 guys in parachutes in front of a prison) - and I SWEAR to GOD that picture DID exist...a lot of my memory is visual as most of you who have followed my plight must by now realized.
Somewhere between 1990 and 1995 there was a documentary or at least a 15 minute segment on an assassination of a political figure in foreign country. It had been suggested to me that it might have been CHE, but I can't make anything I have researched about him to co-incide with the memories I have of this segment. Search your memories because this is important and might help me to connect Duane with someone from the past.
Scenario: There was an incident where a political figure in a foreign country had been killed.
This documentary was showing pictures that were NOT supposed to have been made - during the incident. Cameras where NOT supposed to be there - this was some type of secret covert thing.
At any rate they show some fuzzy pictures of a house and a door way, but as the program progressed they showed a picture of a man in fatiques (camouflage outfit) holding a rifle across his chest. He is standing with his feet apart - this appeared to be a posed picture.
This program mentions that this man was involved in the incident.
There is a wall or building behind him - not an open field. He appears to be tall (at least 6 ft) - and of good build. Since they were showing his picture on TV I would presume this person was maybe deceased or a known soldier of fortune (in other words they implicate this man, but it is several yrs after the incident so I am presuming the man may have been living out of the country or deceased).
When this segment was televised it was NOT about a RECENT incident - but, I get the impression of it being in the 70's.
Duane said at that time - that he knew the man whose picture they put up on the screen (NOTE that DUANE DID NOT mention anything about any involvement regarding himself). They must have given a name, but since this was considered a political type thing I didn't pay much attention. I believe this segment aired after 1990 and of course before February of 1995.
NOW, I am going to explain something else. HOW DUMB I AM! I did NOT know until today that mercenaries and soldiers of fortune are one and the same. After all of the posts I didn't GET IT until it was SPELLED out to me today.
Now do you guys see what I mean by the Dumb Blonde Syndrome.
I am not posting this quest for you guys to make fun of me - but hoping that someone can help me find this segment and who it was about. I am not interested in whoever the political figure was, but the PHOTO of that man and who he was. I am asking for help on this issue and may have asked before - but, for some reason the urgency of need to know is an issue right now and I am asking for YOUR help.
I know you guys will come through on this - and when it does it may mean something about Duane's past or at least those he was in associations with.
Thank YOU ALL.
PS:
Salvador was mentioned, but I have been unable to find ANY clips of any segment EVER done on this incident. I found lots on Che, but nothing that seemed related to the segment Duane and I were watching that night. Does anyone have any sources on Salvador that is NOT on the internet or any other specific similar incident that was suspect CIA hush hush involvement?
During the early yrs I told Himmelsbach and others what I could about Duane. I mentioned anything I thought might be of value.
377 - this is one of those (like the 3 guys in parachutes in front of a prison) - and I SWEAR to GOD that picture DID exist...a lot of my memory is visual as most of you who have followed my plight must by now realized.
Somewhere between 1990 and 1995 there was a documentary or at least a 15 minute segment on an assassination of a political figure in foreign country. It had been suggested to me that it might have been CHE, but I can't make anything I have researched about him to co-incide with the memories I have of this segment. Search your memories because this is important and might help me to connect Duane with someone from the past.
Scenario: There was an incident where a political figure in a foreign country had been killed.
This documentary was showing pictures that were NOT supposed to have been made - during the incident. Cameras where NOT supposed to be there - this was some type of secret covert thing.
At any rate they show some fuzzy pictures of a house and a door way, but as the program progressed they showed a picture of a man in fatiques (camouflage outfit) holding a rifle across his chest. He is standing with his feet apart - this appeared to be a posed picture.
This program mentions that this man was involved in the incident.
There is a wall or building behind him - not an open field. He appears to be tall (at least 6 ft) - and of good build. Since they were showing his picture on TV I would presume this person was maybe deceased or a known soldier of fortune (in other words they implicate this man, but it is several yrs after the incident so I am presuming the man may have been living out of the country or deceased).
When this segment was televised it was NOT about a RECENT incident - but, I get the impression of it being in the 70's.
Duane said at that time - that he knew the man whose picture they put up on the screen (NOTE that DUANE DID NOT mention anything about any involvement regarding himself). They must have given a name, but since this was considered a political type thing I didn't pay much attention. I believe this segment aired after 1990 and of course before February of 1995.
NOW, I am going to explain something else. HOW DUMB I AM! I did NOT know until today that mercenaries and soldiers of fortune are one and the same. After all of the posts I didn't GET IT until it was SPELLED out to me today.
Now do you guys see what I mean by the Dumb Blonde Syndrome.
I am not posting this quest for you guys to make fun of me - but hoping that someone can help me find this segment and who it was about. I am not interested in whoever the political figure was, but the PHOTO of that man and who he was. I am asking for help on this issue and may have asked before - but, for some reason the urgency of need to know is an issue right now and I am asking for YOUR help.
I know you guys will come through on this - and when it does it may mean something about Duane's past or at least those he was in associations with.
Thank YOU ALL.
PS:
Salvador was mentioned, but I have been unable to find ANY clips of any segment EVER done on this incident. I found lots on Che, but nothing that seemed related to the segment Duane and I were watching that night. Does anyone have any sources on Salvador that is NOT on the internet or any other specific similar incident that was suspect CIA hush hush involvement?
Copyright 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 2013, 2014, 2015 by Jo Weber
377 22
Jo,
I don't doubt that Duane told you he knew the person shown on TV, but that doesn't mean it was true. His story about being Dan Cooper raises the same point.
If you have ANYTHING connecting Duane to NORJACK show it. Knowledge of the area doesn't prove anything about NORJACK.
Put Duane in a chute. Show us a hot twenty.
377
I don't doubt that Duane told you he knew the person shown on TV, but that doesn't mean it was true. His story about being Dan Cooper raises the same point.
If you have ANYTHING connecting Duane to NORJACK show it. Knowledge of the area doesn't prove anything about NORJACK.
Put Duane in a chute. Show us a hot twenty.
377
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_Law
"90% of everything is crap"
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