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377 22
Quote
Snow,
Cross checking is what its all about. Even really noisy data can be helpful if you have enough different data streams to correlate. Since the flight recorder data was used to determine jump zone then we can assume it must have some level of useful quality.
Tom
Wouldn't the FDR data just give us a very crude dead reckoning track (course, speed, time) at best? I guess anything is better than nothing, but with strong winds aloft a DR track is going to be way off. I guess we could do some wind corrections.
I dimly remember one case where they correlated some FDR and CVR data to get a precise fix at a point in time. Thge crew was chatting about just crossing a VOR radial and the crash investigators used that info in connection with FDR data.
377
georger 268
QuoteI think a search for the foil FDR is a waste of time.
The data was unreliable then, and is probably unreadable now.
I think a flight path should be created based ONLY on radar data and no FDR data.
If you're telling us there is no radar data, then that's good new info.
Tom, you're a scientist and understand calibrating test equipment. I don't think there were procedures for proving these recorders worked properly after installation. (i.e. regular comparison to known data, and recalibration for sensors, etc).
I suppose there were some basic checks. But nothing that said accuracy was within any sort of bounds.
I suppose if you got the tape and data, the data could be cross checked with something, to decide if it's reasonably accurate.
Tom/Snow:
I assume this is all about trying to clarify the oscillations vs bump via other data on the tape ...
Might also be productive to talk to old 727 pilots
familiar with all of the nuances of the 727 or former crew members. Might find that on a Boeing forum vs here or even on the old Piedmont forum which is
still alive.
'Skydivejack' was very clear: the FDR will not have
cabin pressure data on it. So you have to look for
one or more indirect concomitants of cabin pressure
and even then it may not tell you exactly when he
jumped.
If the jets trailing did see 305's light blink but did not
see a flare, would they have noticed a flare dropping
if Cooper did that?
The next step is to interview every bear between
Merwin Lake and Woodburn OR and see if some clan
of bears has a legend about a guy jumping into
their pantry on thge night of 11-24-71 ! Jo probably
has something on that.
snowmman 3
Basically, society doesn't have foolproof mechanisms that protect against outlier behavior it doesn't like. Tools don't exist (at any point in time) and social structures (FBI, governments, military etc) aren't able to "defend" against it.
At any point in time, there is always the possibilty for outlier behavior. Some percentage of them will be unresolvable. So there will always be a Cooper-like event.
The problem is mad dreamers. You can't detect them at birth, you can't shoot them on sight. Tasering them is currently okay.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/index.html?curid=5746114
"All men dream; but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds Awake to find that it was vanity; But the dreamers of day are dangerous men. That they may act their dreams with open eyes to make it possible."
Also from Lawrence:
Club Secretary: I say, Lawrence. You are a clown!
Lawrence: We can't all be lion tamers.
snowmman 3
"Tom/Snow:
I assume this is all about trying to clarify the oscillations vs bump via other data on the tape ..."
Georger, I don't know.
The LZ map said it was created by combining radar and flight recorder data.
I can't visualize how you could combine those two sources of data.
Was the FDR just used for bump data?
Don't know.
Don't even know if there was any radar data, and whether FDR data was used solely. It's possible, if you look at the data that was likely on the FDR (prior posts)
(edit) agree on the cabin pressure question. It appears that they say "Pressure altitude"...i.e. there is pressure data, but it's not cabin pressure.
Interesting they record times for keying the radio mike? that could be useful for synchronizing events.
snowmman 3
When you mentioned chatting, the San Diego crash I posted about, the 727 pilots were chatting about how the airline was changing their life insurance, just like 1 minute before the Cessna VFR issues and the crash. They died.
Bizarre. Talking about death and life insurance one minute, next minute they actually are dead. There was a weird transition from where they were still joking, to all of a sudden realizing they were in deep shit.
http://www.super70s.com/Super70s/Tech/Aviation/Disasters/78-09-25(PSA).asp
377 22
There was a DC 9 collision with a light plane somewhere in the US where the airliner landed safely with the wreckage of the light plane embedded in the airliner fuselage.
I wish we could figure out what happened to the radar tapes in the Cooper case. When a criminal prosecution is likely, the govt has to be (and usually is) VERY VERY careful to preserve all relevant evidence otherwise cases can get dismissed based on "spoliation of evidence" claims. The long term evidence preservation is far more critical in a skyjack than it is in aviation incidents/accidents where no crime was committed.
In fact, if what Jo says about the cig butts is true (she claims the FBI lost them) a clever defense lawyer could get a case dismissed if there was no unambiguous proof that his client was Cooper. You'd just argue that the butts had DNA that would have exonerated your client, the govt had custody of the evidence and lost it and move for dismissal.
Could Cooper be successfully prosecuted today? Can't really say for sure, but it wouldn't be a piece of cake if evidence once in the govt's possesion has been lost.
I bet the FBI has some evidence that has not been discussed that could be used to tie a suspect to the case. It only makes sense that they would have a few cards not yet shown.
377
snowmman 3
The full NTSB report is online somewhere, I looked at it (I think I posted the link above)
What's really cool is seeing the effort to learn from every error, and move forward with improved technology and procedures.
You know I was thinking about the data behind the flight path map and what form it was in.
Is the flight path map a sole copy? i.e. did someone do calculations and on the fly transcribe onto that one map?
We know there is an apparent one minute error. Was that done transcribing it from another data source, or was it done on the fly by a single person.
Was there any review of this work, and by who and how?
Tom is talking about getting the primary data, But there must be some kind of intermediate data between the primary and this one flight path map we have.
It just doesn't make sense.
I wonder if there were private notes someone had, that the FBI never had.
Soderlind is dead. Maybe notes in his estate?
I talked about Paul Soderlind and the people he worked with a bunch before. Born in Billings, Montana in 1923. died in 2000. First started flying at 12. licensed to fly at 18. went to work for NWA at 19. flew with Navy in 1944.
died at 77. Tosaw said he flew the test drop? He had a medical condition that I thought limited his flying at some point.
For us, it's just too bad we weren't asking questions prior to 2000.
We could have just asked Paul Soderlind.
But: his family might still have his records. Only been 8-1/2 years since his death.
(or he may have given them to some place, since he was an historic figure...inducted into aviation hall of fame somewhere)
(edit) Question:
Why didn't Soderlind ever speak up over the years to talk about how he calculated the flight path, if he was the main driver of the data calculations.
Were there other people? Did he just not care? Was he told it was secret? (probably)
snowmman 3
Northwest Airlines: The First Eighty Years
By Geoff Jones
Arcadia Publishing, 2005
ISBN 0738534153, 9780738534152
128 pages
at
http://books.google.com/books?id=y0ERUPZ1TrQC&pg=PA58
Looks like it has some good historical info.
The first photo is really Paul Soderlind with hot babes. Not making it up (you can go to the link above to confirm)
The 727 "memento" cards are interesting (attached).
I suspect Jo has one.
georger 268
Quotegeorger said:
"Tom/Snow:
I assume this is all about trying to clarify the oscillations vs bump via other data on the tape ..."
Georger, I don't know.
The LZ map said it was created by combining radar and flight recorder data.
I can't visualize how you could combine those two sources of data.
Was the FDR just used for bump data?
Don't know.
Don't even know if there was any radar data, and whether FDR data was used solely. It's possible, if you look at the data that was likely on the FDR (prior posts)
(edit) agree on the cabin pressure question. It appears that they say "Pressure altitude"...i.e. there is pressure data, but it's not cabin pressure.
Interesting they record times for keying the radio mike? that could be useful for synchronizing events.
One thing of note - goes to how and by WHO the
investigation proceeded following the hijacking:
We have been focusing on the FBI here. Several
reasons: presence of Ckret, influence of Jo. Bruce
now arrives and questions investigation, even says
flaws in investigation itself could lead to Cooper!
One thing has been apparent to me for months -
NWA played a LARGE ROLE. I think NWA played
the leading role with everyone else following. Nyrop
ran NWA and told the FBI what to do! Everyone else
played an inferior role. THE DATA IS WITH NWA!
THE FBI DOESNT HAVE THE DATA AND NEVER DID!
All the FBI did was 'criminal investigation' after the
fact.
NWA may never release their data, just as
Continental seems unwilling to confirm or elaborate
on Thomas E? Bohan.
The FBI is not the key to anything of deep value perhaps. I have been suspicious of this all along.
Bruce & Jo etal may be wasting their time focusing
on the FBI. Ckret as much as said this once when he
expressed exasperation here almost saying 'the FBI
doesnt know or have all things... I dont know!' If Ckret
doesnt even have access to NWA corporate documents
then how would Ckret know or be able to answer some
questions? (Jo says the FBI knows and is hiding
everything! Bruce now says the FBi had Cooper but
didnt know it! )
SafecrackingPLFrsvp says: "Follow the evidence".
He never specifies "the evidence".
My question to Safe is: "What's your resume with
NWA that allows you to KNOW THE EVIDENCE!"?
Let's assume Safe sees or has something the rest of
us have missed. I think Safe is saying the money
could have arrived at Tina Bar except by means of Cooper or an associate, personally. Someone who
knew the Fazios? In other words, money transported
by legs. Because no DZ and no hydrological route
and dredging scenario brings money to T_Bar. And
where would NWA fit into this scenario sidestepping
the FBI?
I have said this before. There is an OBVIOUS gap
in communications 8:12-8:20 in ALL of the transcripts.
Scott went to private communication with NWA
and others - a large untranscribed part of reality
that night. Why? What was discussed? NWA knows.
Somewhere there is a transcript of those key communications and NWA has it. NWA transcribed it
and it was left out of the public version of the transcripts, and perhaps left out of the version NWA gave the FBI!
In my opinion, the transcripts from 8:20 to the landing
at Reno reads like a mix of routine communications
mixed with bad comedy, soap opera, reality being
manipulated and covered up. (They did go back to
look for Cooper! Any idea they didnt is nonsense)
Finally, they almost reluctantly, casually, say or admit they have looked, and he isnt there. That is an
anti-climax to what had already happened 8:12-
8;20 and intense ground communications never
published.
NWA was calling ALL of the shots at every point in
this hijacking. Hijackings are a serious matter for
a corporation for all kinds of reasons, all of them
financial in nature. When push comes to shove in
such matters the govt serves corporate interests,
not the reverse, and I believe that was how it was
on 11-24-71. The FBI was cooperating, perhaps
even taking orders, from Nyrop.
It was NOT that the FBI and H etal were stupid or
incompetent or anything else so much as they were
cooperating in their traditional role, assisting corporate
needs. NWA was in charge.
The insurance company would have had a full report.
A detailed report. That is how it works.
The FBI may have been filled in last.
When Tina gives her report about the bomb it is very
clear they are already trying to decide if the bomb is real or not, what the odds are. That is why they asked
Tina to describe the bomb.
The Senior officer Scott was doing the communicating.
2nd Officer Rat is flying the plane, by hand. This
alone tells you where priorities were. Scott is handling the hijacker and the communications because of the
threat of a bomb and Nyrop participating personally.
Scott knows what happened and what was said and done. Scott walks in to H years later and says, "oh
by the way, we were east of that flight map of yours!'
That shows the pecking order. NWA first. FBI last.
Imagine what must have gone through Ralph's mind
at that moment!
I think this perspective is correct.
snowmman 3
The records of NWA (corporate) that exist publicly are at this library
55.5 cu. ft (59 boxes)
http://www.mnhs.org/library/findaids/00110.html
Cooper hijack files (don't know what) are in this box. It looks like PR stuff? Could be random goodies in any boxes from '71-'73 though? Note they have files on all their hijacks (I listed them before)
Public Relations Department Records
Location Box
148.K.17.7B 18
Directors' meetings files:
Milwaukee, April 27, 1959.
Portland, Ore., July 27, 1959.
San Francisco, Aug. 29, 1960.
Tokyo, Oct. 30, 1961.
Cleveland, Ohio, Sept. 30, 1963.
Miami, Fla., Jan. 25, 1965.
Seattle, Oct. 25, 1965.
Hijacking files:
July 1, 1968: To Cuba. 2 folders.
Jan. 22, 1970: To Cuba.
Nov. 24, 1971: D. B. Cooper.
Hijacker Cooper parachuted out of the airplane near Ariel, Wash.
Dec. 24, 1971: Minneapolis-Chicago flight.
May 8, 1977: Tokyo-Honolulu flight.
July 11, 1980: Seattle.
Historical Files:
Air Transport Association membership, 1936-1947, 1961, 1975.
Alaska-Orient route, 1943-1958.
snowmman 3
"The insurance company would have had a full report.
A detailed report. That is how it works."
I posted a snippet before of the first page of the case transcript where NWA went to court against the Insurance company to collect.
That's where I got the details about how the money was handed off and at least one new name, in terms of the money transfer.
I didn't purchase the full court paper, but it's available online (url is back in the thread somewhere)
377 22
QuoteIn my opinion, the transcripts from 8:20 to the landing
at Reno reads like a mix of routine communications
mixed with bad comedy, soap opera, reality being
manipulated and covered up.
Georger. Just what do you speculate that they were covering up or manipulating and why? You do think there was a skyjacker on the plane, right? Or... do you have some doubts?
I have monitored a lot of what are called "company"comms from airliners. They usually talk about mechanical stuff, dispatch and scheduling operations and plane and crew availability issues etc.
Even in the midst of a skyjack NWA had some logistics to consider since an active 727 and crew would be removed from their fleet for a while. They probably wanted to have the crew's estimate on where and when they would land and what maintenance issues amy have been raised by the hijack activities.
I have heard long talks with maintainance people trying to resolve non emergency in flight issues. It's funny, they almost always first suggest cycling circuit breakers no matter what the issue is.
Today a lot of the traffic is text done over ACARS using their VHF radios. It is easy to decode, you can get freeware that lets your computer sound card do the decoding. All you need is a VHF AM aircraft band receiver. Once in a while you get some really interesting comms on ACARS, like reports of a celebrity being drunk and out of control in first class. Normally it is just automated data broadcasts with flight number, position, speed, wheels up time on TO, etc.
Do tell us what was behind your use of the words: "manipulated and covered up." Inquiring minds want to know.
377
wolfriverjoe 1,523
The early 70's were the peak of activity. While a lot of flights originated from Kadena on Okinawa, the training flights were out of Beale, near Sacramento. The training flights were done over the western US. Pure speculation, but how hard would it have been for someone to call the Air Force and ask for one of the training flights to get data from the area of the hijack. Hell, they may have gathered the data as part of the training flight, and the FBI simply asked if they had it.
Orange1- I looked in the FARs and I don't see any requirement to notify the FAA in the event of a hijacking, but I think it would happen as standard procedure. Also, because it is a violation of federal law, (and also usually involves crossing state lines) the FBI has jurisdiction.
"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo
377 22
QuoteThe SR-71 is/was one of the most advanced planes ever made, and it was designed in the 60's.
Joe,
We obviously share major respect for this absolute marvel of 1960s engineering.
I was fantasizing that Darryl Greenamyer would buy an SR 71 and set some new world records. Of course the DOD would never sell or give one surplus to anyone but a museum, but still, Greenamyer built an F 104 Starfighter out of scrap and FLEW IT!
He also reportedly bought a surplus KC 97 refueling tanker with Ascher Ward in the 1980s. I always thought in the back of his mind he was pondering something. I saw the KC 97 fly into Chino CA from Van Nuys. Smokey as hell but it flew.
Greenamyer had plenty of SR 71 time as a Lockheed pilot. He is an aviation great but doesnt get much press outside of his ill fated ice bound B 29 rescue attempt in Greenland.
377
They wouldn't publicize all physical evidence or
facts because that is how they separate the sheep
from the goats.
That is, someone decides that they want to claim
the glory, and a 25-year sentence. Good luck getting
someone to sign up for that.
Losers line up for their 15 minutes of fame, but
can't prove it.
If someone announces an unknown fact, that's him.
If the airline, or possibly the military, decides to
throw out some new info - that could give some grid
coordinates to hunt for a body or some moss-covered gear.
It's a body. He's deader than dog crap on the driveway.
snowmman 3
"jurisdiction" has a lot of meanings during a hijack.
I posted on this issue last summer. I was talking about tape archiving around hijacks (current rules) but also talked about jurisdiction issues during the hijack
reposting.
(edit) looking again, there is a nice list of docs here:
http://155.178.100.20/airports_airtraffic/air_traffic/publications/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Current policy seems to be that tapes around hijacks are only required by the FAA to be retained for 3 years. It does say a release is required though after 3 years to return tapes to service. Not sure what policy was in play in 1971...maybe none?
FAA Order JO 7210.3V covers Facility Ops and Admin, and talks about this.
interesting: they even have a section on Presidential Aircraft:
page 135
Example of hijack requirements, see page 89 of
http://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Order/7210.3V.pdf
They talk about saving everything.
You can use your Acrobat reader to search for "hijack" in that document. ("save as" first)
It mentions "System Safety and Procedures" as an FAA group to contact for the release? they might be the right contact for historical hijack tapes? Not sure if that's a real group though.
Also: A great document for FAA history is
the FAA Historical Chronology 1926-1996.
http://www.faa.gov/about/media/b-chron.pdf
It has good data on what type of hijacking occured when. (download it (big) and search using "hijacking" in adobe reader)
Interestingly it perpetuates the myth that Cooper was the first in a series of extortion hijacks (he wasn't)
(page 162).
One interesting thing I found had to do with various agreements over time, as to who has jurisdiction depending on where the plane is during a hijacking (ground, air etc). It varies between pilot, FAA and FBI.
During the time of the Cooper hijack, the existing agreement was that FBI had jurisdication while the plane was on the ground, with pilot at all other times, although FAA recommendations to him took precedence.
This changed in '74, to give the FAA jurisdiction from the time the doors closed, to the first door open for disembarking. They did agree that all parties would work together.
An agreement in Dec. '71 gave the pilot the responsibility for signaling whether the plane should be disabled or stormed.
So Cooper's hijack was during a period where they had not yet fully settled on procedural details of handling a hijack. (page 152)
I've seen some hijack reports where the hijacker passed the note before the plane took off. FBI would have jurisdiction at that time, so while I initially thought it would be a good plan (get chutes/money as soon as possible)...it's obviously a bad plan because the FBI get to decide what to do...So Cooper's plan of staying in the air until everything's ready on the ground, was really a great idea.
377 22
From the standpoint of a criminal case, FAA policy approving the destruction of hijack tapes or other evidence atfer three years is meaningless. The FBI would have to be sure that didnt happen or they might be handing Cooper a free pass if he were ever caught. Evidence handling is a big part of law enforcement training. One screwup can blow a whole case.
377
snowmman 3
QuoteRegardless of FBI or FAA jurisdiction some US Attorney (US Dept of Justice) will be prosecuting Cooper if he is caught. That prosecution will be compromised if ANY relevant evidence possessed by the govt is lost destroyed or altered prior to trial of an accused.
From the standpoint of a criminal case, FAA policy approving the destruction of hijack tapes or other evidence atfer three years is meaningless. The FBI would have to be sure that didnt happen or they might be handing Cooper a free pass if he were ever caught. Evidence handling is a big part of law enforcement training. One screwup can blow a whole case.
377
Good point. In the McCoy book, they walked thru the trial, and they walked thru every detail of the hijack in testimony.
If I remember correctly, the Parole guy's interview of McCoy, where he confessed, was a big issue, because when the Parole guy talked to the Judge, the Judge went bonkers thinking the case could be compromised, have to go to Supreme Court, whatever. I just skimmed that.
But hell, they had McCoy with the money, and still the Judge went nuts at one point because things weren't being staged according to "plan".
377 22
When lost evidence could have even theoretically exonerated a defendant and the other evidence is equivocal, a dismissal is far more likely. That's where the allegedly lost cig butts add some risk to a successful prosecution.
377
I call it as I see it; I dig as deeply as I can; I don't ignore or twist for a specific gain.
If you want to stick Cooper IN the Columbia River, you have a few hurdles to overcome.
1. Even if radar tracking was less than perfect, the margin of error was +/- 0.5 nautical miles. Usually margins of error are stated as 2 standard deviations which puts the likely result within the margin 95% of the time.
A reasonable person would think that the standard deviation in the landing zone/flight's path was 0.25 nautical miles. Putting the jet 10 miles (or more) away is over 30 standard deviations.
You do not encounter such a large error without purposeful intent.
2. If Cooper lands in the Columbia river, no body was ever found. Did he make it all the way out to sea without getting snagged up somewhere?
3. If Cooper lands in the Columbia, the money would have been attached to him (unless of course you argue that the money separated from him and they both landed in the river). In 8 years time, it can only drift a few miles to where it was found.
4. Even if your armchair logic trumps the opinion of a professional geologist, you still have to account for money lying under a few inches of sand 8 years after the fact.
I imagine that you will do all you can to conquer these hurdles. That's what I mean by allowing the evidence to speak for you.
377 will tell you, this is how false convictions are made; prosecutors rationalize exculpatory evidence and they look at ambiguous evidence in a biased manner.
In my opinion, by making every attempt to alter pieces of evidence that contradict your ideal outcomes, you do yourself and everyone a disfavor.
You'd have me believe that pretty much everything is wrong... the clay layer was wrong, the flight path was wrong, the calculated time/location of the jump was wrong.
What's more likely, that all these things were wrong and you're right 37 years after the fact, or your assumptions are wrong?
Talk about statistics... I'd bet the latter every single time.
snowmman 3
QuoteWhen you have overwhelming proof of guilt from untainted evidence then procedural screwups are sometimes forgiven by the appeals courts as "harmless error". The opinions confirming convictions despite big screwups actually use that quoted phrase (harmless error) as a legal explanation. Harmless error is a concept taught in law school classes on appellate law.
When lost evidence could have even theoretically exonerated a defendant and the other evidence is equivocal, a dismissal is far more likely. That's where the allegedly lost cig butts add some risk to a successful prosecution.
377
Well then, doesn't it feel like this:
Larry knows, if he gives it half a thought, that there's no rational scenario that could play out for a conviction. So the only scenario is resolving it, just for the fun aspect of it.
So if Larry holds back anything, it's because he can't be bothered working on something that's a time sink for him, or he's stuck because in reality it does put a little taint on the FBI, in terms of how they handled it, although I think if so, he's worrying about that too much.
It would be great for the FBI as an institution to just say "You know, in looking at it, we don't have a clue where Cooper jumped, and we'll probably never know what happened to him"
It would be a lot better to say, he might have died, he might have lived.
You can see the more healthy current behaviors with Bin Laden...it's always "don't know. Could be dead. Could be alive. Can't be certain"
The grating thing, is this claim that the FBI is sure Cooper is dead, when there is no evidence. That's the sand in the shoe, that keeps us at it.
The right answer should be "Don't know". "Can't know"
Hey think about this.
After reading the McCoy book, I realized I didn't know McCoy was a sport jumper. They named his jump club.
So that's 2 out of 5 that are confirmed sport jumpers.
i.e. 40% of skyjackers who actually jumped when they got their chute, were sport jumpers. (could be higher, not sure about the others)
Why dont you contact Skydivejack Reg July 18 2003
here. ?
Sounds like he has firsthand experience and might
be able to direct you . . .
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