377 22
georger 257
QuoteQuoteQuoteQuote
But now that I'm reading it, and confirming sections of it with things Ckret has said, I think it potentially has some interesting details that we could discuss. I was amazed when Ckret released the memo confirming the flaps were changed to 30 degrees. Tosaw says this also. Tosaw says that when the flaps were at 30, the speed went from 170 knots to 145 knots (167mph)
Flaps 30 or 40 on most planes requires near landing speeds. In fact, I pulled out my 737 reference charts and for both 30 and 40 instead of giving a specific knot number it simply says Final Approach Speed. There likely would be a slowdown associated with lowering the flaps.
Thanks Nuke (I always think of you as The Cooler for some reason :)
What flabbergasts me, is that this 30 degree flap/slowdown issue was in the FBI summary report for 37 years. And so it's clear that Cooper jumped at a reasonable exit speed right? And the story's been put in the papers forever that he jumped at some crazy speed. I mean, the more we learn, I'm expecting the jumpers out there to be thinking: easier and easier jump?
It depends on what you consider reasonable exit speed and clear. I'm looking at files that accompany accompany a payware 727 plane for a flight simulator. I'm not sure how accurate they are, but they have the maximum extension speed for 30 degrees as 180 knots. Other than Towsaw there is nothing to confirm the drop to 145 knots.
REPLY> unless time and disatance are accurate -
this is why I questioned the large variation in ground
speeds between markers on Sluggo's map. I mean its
impossible to be doing say 160 kts one minute and 235 the next, then back to say 175 - unless you are a UFO! I mean either the radar data is accurate or it isnt.
The overall slope (average) of the data seems within
acceptable range but these large variations one minute to the next seem to make anything possible
when it wasn't (if physics applies).
Mr.Nuke 0
QuoteQuoteQuote
REPLY> Hopfully we can get the winds down -
I have a request in with the Special Agent who makes nicknames.Quote
I was also mulling over 20:15.56 (below from Sluggo)
with respect to Rataczack.
"SEA CNTR advises Portland Altimeter (Corresponding Sea Level Barometric Pressure) is 30.03 inches of Hg. [This is important because it shows that at 20:15:56 they were very near Portland.]" _Sluggo website
I wonder what "very near" means.
In this context Sluggo can use "very near" because if they are giving 305 a PDX altimeter setting it generally means that the plane is very close to the airport. The altimeter settings are derived from the closest weather observation station in the vicinity of the plane's path. And if we take the radar data and assume it is accurate, the plane is very close to PDX at 8:15.
REPLY> ... and VERY CLOSE is ? 1 mile. 5 miles.
Im trying to connect this to Rataczack's statement.
Sorry georger, I can't really give you a definitive answer. It isn't something where everyone 5 miles away from the airport gets an altimeter setting. It commonly happens after a frequency change, or if a controller sees that you are at an altitude like 10,100 on their radar when you should be at 10,000. They will give you the setting in situations like that. I have no idea how advanced AWOS was then or how many stations there were in that area in the early 70's.
Again though it does let is know they were close. Sorry we can't definitively say how close. But to get to your point it does fit in with Rataczak's statement as well as the '71 radar derived map as evidence that at 8:15 the plane was very near Portland.
georger 257
Also remember that 305 was given instructions to squawk a special transponder code when Cooper jumped. This certainly would have received the controller's attention. Of course that code never came, and no one was certain that a jump occurred until the plane landed in Reno minus a passenger.
REPLY> we do not know that they didnt communicate to the company through all of the suspected jump period in lieu of squaking the transponder ... they may have been ordered not to by the company? Why the
company would give such an order is totally beyond me, if they did. But after the fact they had no problem whatever identifying a bail time period. It has always
struck me something is being concealed for some
reason ...
I mean if they were seriously thinking or on the verge of trying to kill the guy why advertise it with a squak!?
The comapny would say: keep this to yourselves.
377 22
QuoteUntil
he separates a sufficient distance from the plane
radar can't resolve him as a discrete object .. so
would have something to do with Cooper's radar
angle vis-a-vis the plane.
I'd say from my experience jumping from a jet and in seeing birds flying around boats on marine radar that Cooper had enough separation to be resolved distinctly from the 727 echo within one second. The closer the plane is to the radar the sooner the Cooper and plane echoes would become distinct because a fixed distance between them gives higher angular separation when closer to the radar antenna (polar geometry).
At 10 miles it should have been a piece of cake to see the Cooper echo.
Certainly ATC raw radar tapes would have been preserved after such an incident. They are when accidents are involved. What happened to them?
377
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
georger 257
QuoteQuoteQuoteQuote
But now that I'm reading it, and confirming sections of it with things Ckret has said, I think it potentially has some interesting details that we could discuss. I was amazed when Ckret released the memo confirming the flaps were changed to 30 degrees. Tosaw says this also. Tosaw says that when the flaps were at 30, the speed went from 170 knots to 145 knots (167mph)
Flaps 30 or 40 on most planes requires near landing speeds. In fact, I pulled out my 737 reference charts and for both 30 and 40 instead of giving a specific knot number it simply says Final Approach Speed. There likely would be a slowdown associated with lowering the flaps.
Thanks Nuke (I always think of you as The Cooler for some reason :)
What flabbergasts me, is that this 30 degree flap/slowdown issue was in the FBI summary report for 37 years. And so it's clear that Cooper jumped at a reasonable exit speed right? And the story's been put in the papers forever that he jumped at some crazy speed. I mean, the more we learn, I'm expecting the jumpers out there to be thinking: easier and easier jump?
It depends on what you consider reasonable exit speed and clear. I'm looking at files that accompany accompany a payware 727 plane for a flight simulator. I'm not sure how accurate they are, but they have the maximum extension speed for 30 degrees as 180 knots. Other than Towsaw there is nothing to confirm the drop to 145 knots.
REPLY> Sounds stupid but I say a prayer for him every night.
Thanks for sharing this Cpt Kirk.
georger 257
QuoteQuoteI wonder what "very near" means.
In this case... it means; "Not yet to Portland, but definitely in the suburbs."
In this case... it means; "Not yet to Portland, but definitely in the suburbs." REPLY>>>
across south of the Columbia? Portland goes right up to the river so any suburbs are basically Portland itself.
Is there an automatic proximity to such messages going out ?
snowmman 3
Quote
georger wrote:
REPLY> unless time and disatance are accurate -
this is why I questioned the large variation in ground
speeds between markers on Sluggo's map. I mean its
impossible to be doing say 160 kts one minute and 235 the next, then back to say 175 - unless you are a UFO! I mean either the radar data is accurate or it isnt.
The overall slope (average) of the data seems within
acceptable range but these large variations one minute to the next seem to make anything possible
when it wasn't (if physics applies).
Georger..I went back and looked at Sluggo's leg knots/distance to see what you were talking about.
Yes..too much variation.
BUT: these tick marks were hand drawn right? I suspect if we allow a little variation on each tick mark (error) that we could get them so the variation in speed distance is not so bad?
In fact I can estimate. A fast leg covered 4.1 NM
A slow leg nearby: 3.02 NM
So a .5 NM error on both of the surround tics would account for that.
Isn't our radar only about that accurate?
So I think what it says is that if from tic to tic we could see an instaneous 0.5 NM error, or that the hand drawing could introduce that error, then we can't make any flight speed analysis from the tick marks
does that make sense? We don't know enough about the instaneous causes of radar error.
(attached sluggos thingee again)
(edit) It does look like if Cooper jumped at 2015, then maybe they had started changing the flaps back to 15 degrees already? thinking it may have jumped earlier at the oscillations. So I guess we're not sure about Cooper's exit speed.
georger 257
QuoteQuoteQuoteThe new LZ is just 10 miles from PDX.
REPLY & QUESTION>
See the 72 FBI LZ maps attached. Note the wind
vector lines A-B, H-P, O-R which define drift at the
various latitudes. Arent they going the wrong direction
vs the wind charts you found? It should be SE to NW,
not SW - NE as shown on the 72 maps ???
What am I missing!?
BTW I did a little gamma adjustment on this map
so its a bit easier to read - more B&W contrast.
George
Warning:
Danger Will Robinson… Danger Danger
Do not confuse “winds aloft” with ground level winds. If navigators and pilots did that, they would be in a world of hurt.
Want to know what the prevalent winds at ground level are? Find the nearest airport and look at the runway alignment(s).
Sluggo_Monster
Sorry about the Will Robinson quote, I don’t watch movies like you guys do. What was the “big toe” reference?
REPLY> totally aware of the distinction, morever
winds aloft can be in a different direction from winds
at the ground ....
Mr.Nuke 0
QuoteQuoteQuoteI wonder what "very near" means.
REPLY>>>
across south of the Columbia? Portland goes right up to the river so any suburbs are basically Portland itself.
Is there an automatic proximity to such messages going out ?
Nope. See my reply above. The main times this information would be given out is that: A) you just switched controllers and the new one has a different altimeter setting B) the controller realizes you don't have the correct setting C) the weather has changed and thus a new setting is necessary for traffic in that sector. The message itself does not tell us anything about the exact position of the plane. Only that it was close enough to Portland to be given the PDX altimeter setting.
georger 257
QuoteQuoteQuoteJust understand (as for the rest of you) if i am not responsive it is because I am away on other matters.
All,
Sometimes I getfuriousangryfrustratedirritated with Ckret, especially when he doesn’t reply to my posts, IMs, or e-mails in a timely manner. Today I ran across THIS and it reminded me that our favorite Special Agent has a “real-job” and isn’t setting around the office reading dropzone.com posts and answering e-mails.
The guy in the article who rammed the SUV was Ckret. The attached photo shows Ckret in the background (on the cell phone).
So, Ckret…. Why does it take you so long to reply to my e-mails and posts?
Sluggo_Monster
Damn, if I ever turn from highway robbery to bank robbery I am going to carefully avoid Ckret's district. I don't want to run into James Bond while I am trying to get away.
I remember a bar in SF that was frequented by Samoans, Tongans and other BIG HUGE guys. An SF cop told me that when they got a call about a fight there, they would wait about ten minutes and then roll. "No need for me to get between two crazed elephants when I am only four years from retirement" is how one cop described it. "We kinda let them work things out on their own before we show up."
Different response philosophies.
377
>>>>>>>>>> not trying to be funny but its called
self preservation. Now, what was Cooper's slant on this!
georger 257
Quote(reposting. I think I overwrote this)
This is good info from Tosaw's book (page 36).
I think it shows how the re-enacted pressure bump was erroneously correlated to the reported oscillations on the radio.
It's convincing (to me) information about how errors were apparently made leading to a focus on Lake Merwin. I suspect Lake Merwin area was identified even before the plane landed at Reno.
From Tosaw (written in '84)
"Soderlind in Minneapolis had been monitoring the plane's radio and heard the crew's reaction to the 8:13 pressure bump. He immediately began to determine the plane's position at that time. In a few minutes he was able to draw an area on a map into which he believed Cooper had landed. The area was rather large because of his not knowing exactly where the plane was on the Victor-23 line at 8:13 and because of the varying forces and directions of the wind. The wind was blowing from the southwest so Soderlind used the Victor-23 line as the western boundary of Cooper's landing zone and allowed several miles for drift after he left the plane.
The northern boundary of the probable landing zone started at Woodland, Washington, and extended south about 20 miles to Portland, Oregon on the Columbia River."
Before this, on page 35, Tosaw says something that I think was based on erroneous information from the people he interviewed. (Tosaw did his work in '83 roughly? book published in '84)
"Suddenly, at 8:13, the four crew members in the cockpit felt a burst of pressure in their ears. "There he goes," shouted Rataczak, and they all saw the needles reacting on the pressure gauges. They looked out of the cockpit windows, but it was too dark to see anything. Tina began buzzing Cooper on the interphone but did not receive an answer. She tried to raise him on the public-address system but heard nothing"
Says flaps were put back to 15 and the speed went back up to 195mph. But it's not clear exactly when that happened.
What's interesting is that the predicted area was initially Woodland to Portland, but it got crushed down to the Woodland area erroneously. If they would have stayed with the idea that Woodland to Portland was equally likely, things might have been better.
Oh, on page 38, it does say when they got to Reno:
"Captain Scott relieved Rataczak at the controls and the plane began its descent into the Reno airport"
So maybe we should correct our facts/myth to say that Scott landed the plane.
>>>>>>>>> damn good work Snowmman!
snowmman 3
Quote
Also remember that 305 was given instructions to squawk a special transponder code when Cooper jumped. This certainly would have received the controller's attention. Of course that code never came, and no one was certain that a jump occurred until the plane landed in Reno minus a passenger.
REPLY> we do not know that they didnt communicate to the company through all of the suspected jump period in lieu of squaking the transponder ... they may have been ordered not to by the company? Why the
company would give such an order is totally beyond me, if they did. But after the fact they had no problem whatever identifying a bail time period. It has always
struck me something is being concealed for some
reason ...
I mean if they were seriously thinking or on the verge of trying to kill the guy why advertise it with a squak!?
The comapny would say: keep this to yourselves.
I always wondered, if maybe right after the hijack, based on how they "felt" about Cooper's aviation knowledge at that time, if they might have had a suspicion, not based on any fact, that it could have been an NWA insider. Remember I pointed out before that the NWA pilots didn't have a contract at the time, and the dispute had been going on for a while.
Even Soderlind's comments about the 15 degree flaps
(according to Tosaw) seem to have this underlying feeling of "is he one of us?"
georger 257
Quote(reposting. I somehow overwrote)
page 34
"The plane was still climbing as Tina walked toward the cockpit; she came to the curtain that separated the two sections and looked back at Cooper standing by the open door. [ed. aft door] He waved goodbye as he raised his hand in a farewell salute. She closed the curtain and snapped of the cabin lights"
So the lights were on until Tina entered the cockpit. This salute thing is interesting. Minimally, Cooper seemed relaxed at the impending jump.
"Tina entered the cockpit and the crew was happy to see her, although she looked fatigued.
...
When Tina sat down on the observer's seat she told them that Cooper had already walked down into the stairwell. Tina also told the crew that Cooper had the briefcase with the bomb nearby and said he was going to disarm it or take it with him.
Then at 7:45 p.m, about five minutes after Tina entered the cockpit the interphone buzzed. They heard Cooper's void over the din of the engines.: "Slow down a little; I can't get the staircase down."
Tina communicated with the cockpit with the interphone? So Cooper may have known how to do this just by watching Tina previously?
REPLY> I should not have read this! Cooper is now coming off as far more in control and competent than
I thought he was. Saluting Mucklow? WTF is that!@!!
snowmman 3
Quote
REPLY> I should not have read this! Cooper is now coming off as far more in control and competent than
I thought he was. Saluting Mucklow? WTF is that!@!!
I'm thinking maybe it wasn't a real salute. Maybe a wave, hand up kind of thing. Even though, shows relatively relaxed, confident?
well, the description of rig up is even worse for changing a perception of Cooper, I think. I was thinking though that it might be overstated. I think any dummy familar with slider buckles would be able to cinch up the straps. Note I commented on the probable error in "canvas" here.
page 32
"Cooper put the military parachute on his back and cinched up the canvas straps to make them fit his chest and thighs. Tina noticed how quickly and easily he completed this complicated operation - just looking as though it were an everyday occurence"
There is another description of Cooper inspecting the open stairwell very quickly after takeoff. So I don't know if I agree with Ckret's interpretation of wanting to jump right away. He definitely seems to have started getting things in motion around the stairs right away.
377 22
Quote"Cooper put the military parachute on his back and cinched up the canvas straps to make them fit his chest and thighs. Tina noticed how quickly and easily he completed this complicated operation - just looking as though it were an everyday occurence"
Hard to tell how much is accurate fact reporting and how much is literary license taken by Tosaw. The reported ease with which Cooper donned a rig, if true, gives a clue as to his level of experience. Give a rig to someone who has never jumped. They don't just throw it on and tighten it up. They are confused about what goes where, what to do first, etc. In my first jump class the instructor threw a rig to one of the students and said put it on. He fumbled for a long while and then the instructor took it back. He said "by the end of this training you will be able to do it blindfolded in less than ten seconds."
I have seen quite a few first jumpers, both tandems and AFF. They are rarely composed and able to give a calm wave goodbye. Teeth are gritting, mouths are clenched, hands are made into fists... and this is a closely supervised fair weather jump. Instructors chime in. Does the Cooper described by Tosaw sound like a first time jumper?
Ckret's aircrew hunch is sounding plausible. As such he may never have jumped, but he'd sure know how to put on a bailout rig.
377
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
snowmman 3
Tosaw's description of the dredging is a lot different than what I assumed based on what Ckret said.
Tosaw said the Corp of Engineers is in Portland. He quotes 164,000 cubic yards of material in October '74, onto the Fazio side, which is similar to the amount on the other side I quoted from a court case, slightly early in the summer.
Tosaw said they use a pipeline dredge
page 112
"A suction pipe is lowered from the side of the dredge to the bottom of the river. The pipe is 36 inches in diameter and on the end it has steel blades 18 inches apart which slowly turn as the end of the pipe is dragged along the bottom. On the deck of the dredge, the other end of the pipe is attached to a powerful pump and thus the ed of the pipe, as it moves along the bottom, acts like a giant vacuum cleaner. The blades break up any hard material and the pump brings it to the surface. The material stays in the pipe after reaching the surface and is kept moving by another pump which propels it to the shore. The shore can be, it the case of the Columbia, as far as a half-mile away, so regularly spaced barges keep the pipe from sinking.
The slurry, a mixture of sand and water, gushes onto the beach; the excess water quickly drains back onto the river. A bulldozer on the beach follows behind the slow-moving pipe, levelling and smoothing the hill of sand to conform it to the rest of the beach.
The bulldozer operator rarely notices the content of the material he pushes around. Occasionally he will notice a piece of household or industrial junk come out and sometimes a fish will come sailing out, which accounts for the sea gulls flying around. Since the blades on the end of the drag head are 18 inches apart, some sizable objects can get through, and one time, quite surprisingly, a small television set came out of the end of the pipe. Another time the bulldozer operator saw a grebe, the aquatic bird that feeds on the river's bottom, come pouring out. It landed on the slurry pipe and after shaking itself off, got back on its feet and stumbled back into the river."
Tosaw goes on to theorize that the money bag made it to the area by October '74, three bundles got thrown together up on the beach and covered. Then 5 years went by and erosion reduced the sand enough so Brian could uncover them."
This all sounds plausible, doesn't it?
We only dismissed Tosaw because of the dredge testimony Ckret summarized for us.
This testimony is far more detailed and persuasive.
ALSO: what I didn't realize, was that Tosaw allowed for the money bag to drift from the flight path crossing of the Columbia to the target area.
Tosaw is just saying it got from the middle of the columbia, to the bank, via the dredge.
I think this solves the high velocity Columbia flow problem georger has been worrying about. And it's more sane than talking about a money bag that magically opens and deposits, and then moves on...i.e. more sane than the Ckret snag/raft theory?
Doesn't this make sense.
Like georger might say: it's on the dredge spoil site for a reason? Things happen for a reason. Isn't this one a good one?
Tosaw said the Corp of Engineers is in Portland. He quotes 164,000 cubic yards of material in October '74, onto the Fazio side, which is similar to the amount on the other side I quoted from a court case, slightly early in the summer.
Tosaw said they use a pipeline dredge
page 112
"A suction pipe is lowered from the side of the dredge to the bottom of the river. The pipe is 36 inches in diameter and on the end it has steel blades 18 inches apart which slowly turn as the end of the pipe is dragged along the bottom. On the deck of the dredge, the other end of the pipe is attached to a powerful pump and thus the ed of the pipe, as it moves along the bottom, acts like a giant vacuum cleaner. The blades break up any hard material and the pump brings it to the surface. The material stays in the pipe after reaching the surface and is kept moving by another pump which propels it to the shore. The shore can be, it the case of the Columbia, as far as a half-mile away, so regularly spaced barges keep the pipe from sinking.
The slurry, a mixture of sand and water, gushes onto the beach; the excess water quickly drains back onto the river. A bulldozer on the beach follows behind the slow-moving pipe, levelling and smoothing the hill of sand to conform it to the rest of the beach.
The bulldozer operator rarely notices the content of the material he pushes around. Occasionally he will notice a piece of household or industrial junk come out and sometimes a fish will come sailing out, which accounts for the sea gulls flying around. Since the blades on the end of the drag head are 18 inches apart, some sizable objects can get through, and one time, quite surprisingly, a small television set came out of the end of the pipe. Another time the bulldozer operator saw a grebe, the aquatic bird that feeds on the river's bottom, come pouring out. It landed on the slurry pipe and after shaking itself off, got back on its feet and stumbled back into the river."
Tosaw goes on to theorize that the money bag made it to the area by October '74, three bundles got thrown together up on the beach and covered. Then 5 years went by and erosion reduced the sand enough so Brian could uncover them."
This all sounds plausible, doesn't it?
We only dismissed Tosaw because of the dredge testimony Ckret summarized for us.
This testimony is far more detailed and persuasive.
ALSO: what I didn't realize, was that Tosaw allowed for the money bag to drift from the flight path crossing of the Columbia to the target area.
Tosaw is just saying it got from the middle of the columbia, to the bank, via the dredge.
I think this solves the high velocity Columbia flow problem georger has been worrying about. And it's more sane than talking about a money bag that magically opens and deposits, and then moves on...i.e. more sane than the Ckret snag/raft theory?
Doesn't this make sense.
Like georger might say: it's on the dredge spoil site for a reason? Things happen for a reason. Isn't this one a good one?
snowmman 3
Quote
Hard to tell how much is accurate fact reporting and how much is literary license taken by Tosaw.
I intially suspected that when I first got the book. But after seeing the facts that Ckret has released, which tend to confirm Tosaw, and re-reading Tosaw, who interviewed people firsthand, I don't think Tosaw took literary license anywhere. He may have a few facts wrong, but everyone does.
Ckret can confirm or deny some of this stuff. Based on my reading and understanding, I think Tosaw's work is credible.
377 22
http://cgi.ebay.com/Ha-Ha-Ha-By-DB-Cooper-You-can-solve-the-mystery_W0QQitemZ260257130124QQcmdZViewItem?hash=item260257130124&_trksid=p3286.m14.l1318
anyone seen this book?
anyone seen this book?
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
377
Share this post
Link to post
Share on other sites