AndyMan 7 #1 November 3, 2003 QuoteRemember, statistically speaking, you have a much better chance of being injured or killed in a car accident on the way to the DZ. You don't really believe that, do you? _Am__ You put the fun in "funnel" - craichead. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cruzit 0 #2 November 3, 2003 Although we have digressed a little bit...yes I do really believe that. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scrumpot 1 #3 November 3, 2003 QuoteAlthough we have digressed a little bit...yes I do really believe that. Then you are deluding yourself. That "statistic" as you have stated it, is patently FALSE.coitus non circum - Moab Stone Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cruzit 0 #4 November 3, 2003 QuoteQuoteAlthough we have digressed a little bit...yes I do really believe that. Then you are deluding yourself. That "statistic" as you have stated it, is patently FALSE. Okay...I'll bite, even though I sense a troll. Driving fatalities per 100,000 licensed drivers 22.06 (2001 statistics used) Driving fatalities per 100,000 population 14.86. Skydiving fatalities on average, don't even come close to this. 2,000,000 jumps in any given year with general fatalities falling under 30 per year. If you exclude the fatalities which arise from skydivers killed in a plane going in, the fatality rate is lower. Give it up...you obviously don't know what you are talking about. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DeNReN 0 #5 November 3, 2003 May i suggest a new post to debate the skydiving vs driving thingy...instead of hijacking this thread? Hmmmm...I didnt post this message to this thread....must be the work of those magical greenies. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,078 #6 November 3, 2003 >Driving fatalities per 100,000 licensed drivers 22.06 (2001 statistics > used) Driving fatalities per 100,000 population 14.86. >Skydiving fatalities on average, don't even come close to this. > 2,000,000 jumps in any given year with general fatalities falling > under 30 per year. If you exclude the fatalities which arise from > skydivers killed in a plane going in, the fatality rate is lower. In the first case you used odds of fatality per person; in the second you used odds of fatality per jump. They are not the same thing. To use a more parallel comparison, your odds of dying on any given jump are 1 in 80,000 to 1 in 100,000. So for a skydiver who makes 100 jumps a year, your odds of dying in any given year due to skydiving is around 1 in 800. For a driver, your odds of dying due to a vehicular accident in any given year is around 1 in 4500 (per your numbers.) If you only make a few jumps a year those odds change. However, you are also more uncurrent, and thus your danger increases; the above statistics do not take that into account. (Neither do the highway stats so the comparison above is still valid.) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TALONSKY 0 #7 November 3, 2003 I would think in order to compare driving to skydiving fatality rates we would need to compare similar things. What I mean is in driving you are comparing accidents fatality per every 100.000 drivers. Now to make a fair comparison you would either need to approximate per every trip made by each driver or change the skydiving comparison to number of skydivers per fatatlity Kirk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scrumpot 1 #8 November 3, 2003 QuoteMay i suggest a new post to debate the skydiving vs driving thingy...instead of hijacking this thread? Agreed. I've set it up HERE Let's have at it! coitus non circum - Moab Stone Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
winsor 236 #9 November 3, 2003 QuoteAlthough we have digressed a little bit...yes I do really believe that. Well, if your drive to the DZ involves washing a Quaalude down with whiskey before leaving and trying to get there before it kicks in, I can see where the driving part could be a tad risky. In general, however, the "driving more dangerous than skydiving" theory is reflective of active denial more than anything. If you look at skydiving as the act of committing suicide and intervening at the last moment (kind of like playing chicken with the planet), it's hard to put normal traffic patterns in the same category. If your statistical analysis indicates otherwise, you could use a more rigorous study of stochastics. Scientists didn't "prove" that a bumblebee can't fly; a bumblebee established to a high level of assurance that the scientists in question needed to work on their models. Blue skies, Winsor Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scrumpot 1 #10 November 3, 2003 BINGO! ...The length of time of relative EXPOSURE to each risk/activity vs. it's actual accident/fatality rate. ...It's not even close. The people who "skew" those statistics and then waive them around as such, WITHOUT having thought it through/correlate it's relativity, really irk me. Blue Skies, -Grant (edited to take out link to DELETED post in Gen'l discussions ...posts have already been apparently moved by the greenies here!) coitus non circum - Moab Stone Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DeNReN 0 #11 November 3, 2003 OK....lets sort the stats out.....of the 30 or so skydiving deaths each year...how many are due to double mals.....low hook turns....etc.etc? personally....my agressive driving style prob makes me more prone to a injury from driving (I'm still new to jumping and am very cautious)....however...as my skill and cofidence increase and oneday start doing low hook turns on a high performance canopies....the odds will prob flip Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nightjumps 1 #12 November 3, 2003 QuoteScientists didn't "prove" that a bumblebee can't fly; a bumblebee established to a high level of assurance that the scientists in question needed to work on their models. Uh oh. A quantum probability theorist is in the zone Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fast 0 #13 November 3, 2003 Hmm, Can I asume this was split out of some other thread? Anyways, I have had this conversation with a statistics/mathmatics professor at the college I goto. We were talking about the merits of comparison between driving fatalities and skydiving fatalities. Too make things short, we can't have exact numbers unless a decent sized population of data was taken from various dropzones around the country. The things that affect saftey are so numerous that we could develop a multiple variable regression to determin the likelyness of injury/fatality per jump. The same can be said about driving. The differnce is that for driving we do have most of the data, and this inherently provides us with a scapegoat to compare against. Often unrealistic and unjustified data is used in the comparison against driving because no one really knows how many skydives were made, injuries that occured, etc... There are so many ways that you can look at statistics, such as 30-40 fatalities per year something on the order of 40,000 uspa members, so thats 3-4 fatalities per 4000 uspa members or about 1 per 1000. The thing is though, that means absolutely nothing to what risk you are at in skydiving. Are you reckless, pull low, pack sloppy, and don't ever gear check or go over emergency procedures? Well I can bet your at more risk to die jumping than the person who does do those things safely. There is a inherent risk just by what your doing but that risk level is modified by activities. Your at more risk if there are 40-60 people in the air with no idea the experience level, and not sure if landing patterns are being followed (say a large boogie like the wffc) than the person who jumps with only thier friends at a cessna DZ. Does it mean there is no risk cause its just 4 of you and you know each other, hmm, no... but it is less risk. Experience also is a factor, etc. Does a person participate in swoop competitions, or other high preformance things near the ground? More risk thier too. Driving is the same way, but the mitigating factors have a much different effect. I highly doubt there is any way that we can say driving is safer than skydiving. I think it is hard to compare the two, but it is not probable that in reality we can say driving is more dangerous. The only way I could see that is if you were the safest skydiver in the world and the most reckless driver I have ever met. Then maybe you could say driving is more dangerous.~D Where troubles melt like lemon drops Away above the chimney tops That's where you'll find me. Swooping is taking one last poke at the bear before escaping it's cave - davelepka Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,107 #14 November 3, 2003 QuoteOK....lets sort the stats out.....of the 30 or so skydiving deaths each year...how many are due to double mals.....low hook turns....etc.etc? personally....my agressive driving style prob makes me more prone to a injury from driving (I'm still new to jumping and am very cautious)....however...as my skill and cofidence increase and oneday start doing low hook turns on a high performance canopies....the odds will prob flip You must be one bloody awful driver then, if every 5 minutes of your driving has a 1 in 80,000 chance of causing a fatality.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scrumpot 1 #15 November 3, 2003 QuoteI think it is hard to compare the two... Not really, if you at least get your applicable numbers and their (exposure to the risk in question) relativity correct. Many people instead, simply use this "mythical analogy" in order to delude either themselves, or others into the (FALSE) belief that: "Skydiving is safer than driving" or that: "You're more likely to die/be injured on your ride to/from the dropzone than actually jumping there." Which I've said before, and I'll say again here, is just patently FALSE.coitus non circum - Moab Stone Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DeNReN 0 #16 November 3, 2003 Actually....I'm a great driver...just agressive....1 accident in 20 years as a lic driver....now close calls...thats a different story. When I skydive......I dont have to worry about some moron on a cell phone crossing the center line and having to take evasive action to the gravel shoulder to avoid a head on collision(ppl with lesser driving skills.OUCH)......mind you...I have low jump numbers and mals(shit) does happen..... Lets try this......what are the odds of having a head on collision under canopy compared to having one in a car?.........BTW...I'm playing devils advociate here. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cruzit 0 #17 November 3, 2003 Your right...it's pretty hard to find applicable statistics...but You obviously have some strong feelings on this subject, as do I. My point is...and I obviously didn't make it very well...is that if you play be the rules...skydiving is generally very, very safe. There was, what, maybe 2 fatalities last year not caused by pilot error of some type??? I wish the same could be said of automobiles, where you must constantly hope the other driver isn't drunk, sleepy, playing with his radio, yelling at the kids, etc. So in deference of fostering good relationships on the board...I offer this quote Alright, alright I apologize. I'm really, really sorry. I apologize unreservedly. I offer a complete and utter retraction. The imputation was totally without basic in fact and was in no way fair comment and was motivated purely by malice and I deeply regret any distress that my comments may have caused you or your family and I hereby undertake not to repeat any such slander at any time in the future. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,078 #18 November 3, 2003 >There was, what, maybe 2 fatalities last year not caused by pilot >error of some type??? >I wish the same could be said of automobiles, where you must > constantly hope the other driver isn't drunk, sleepy, playing with his > radio, yelling at the kids, etc. Just as in skydiving, where you have to hope the other people on the dive/in the formation/in the landing pattern are paying attention and are competent. I can think of several accidents this year caused by either collisions, near-collisions or incompetence on the part of another jumper. In driving, just as in skydiving, it's usually the driver's fault (and that goes for the vehicle in the accident as well as the vehicle that contributed to the accident.) >Alright, alright I apologize. I'm really, really sorry. I apologize unreservedly . . . "A fish called Wanda"? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scrumpot 1 #19 November 3, 2003 I can understand the basis of what you were saying, and in the context of trying to qualm a newbie/student who, as the title of his thread had indicated, was clearly "freaking out" over reading the incidents forum(s), I can almost understand the approach. However, skydiving, as I'm sure you will agree is indeed a "high risk" activity (just like driving is in certain circumstances ---how's that?), that should be approached with a level of appreciation of those risks and some respect. That anology completely takes away from that, and in my opinion is just plain WRONG is all. Add to the fact that you just semantically mixed "apples & oranges" in the making of your "statistical comparison" (as Bill Von so aptly picked up upon) and I was just "bustin' on ya" just a bit there too I'm afraid. Quote...that my comments may have caused you or your family and I hereby undertake not to repeat any such slander at any time in the future.... LOL Now that was a good one! You were one of those that was graded in kindergarten as "playing well with others" weren't you? I don't want to share with you my marks in that category. But THANKS! ...You really made my day! -Grantcoitus non circum - Moab Stone Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cruzit 0 #20 November 3, 2003 One of my favorite quotes from a Fish Called Wanda (You might remember John Cleese hanging upside down) I'll be using it from now on...just to keep myself out of trouble*** Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scrumpot 1 #21 November 3, 2003 QuoteOne of my favorite quotes from a Fish Called Wanda (You might remember John Cleese hanging upside down) And one of my favorites, from Monty Python Search for the Holy Grail: The knight defending the black forest I think it was... had just had BOTH his arms, then his legs chopped off... ..."C'mon back here & fight you coward ----I've only just begun here!" I can see that you & I are gonna make for some "trouble" here, if not kept in check, in these forums! Welcome, "Newbie" -Grantcoitus non circum - Moab Stone Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DeNReN 0 #22 November 3, 2003 To whom do we bring the shubbery too? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cruzit 0 #23 November 3, 2003 What is the airspeed velocity of a winged sparrow in flight??? African or European???? I don't know....AAAAAAAAAAH Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AndyMan 7 #24 November 3, 2003 Here's an interesting discussion. The conclusion was that people who thought skydiving was safer then driving didn't understand statistics... http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?do=post_view_flat;post=584336 _Am__ You put the fun in "funnel" - craichead. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fast 0 #25 November 3, 2003 Too stay with the original topic, lets consider the following. If we even consider to compare the total amount of driving to the total amount of skydiving, I would say that could shut down the argument pretty well that driving is safer, Lets just look at the total miles traveled last year in the united states: Grand Total: Vehicle( Million) Miles Traveled(2001): 2781462 (Thats 2,781,462,000,000 miles traveled last year total in all 50 states and Washington DC.) Reference If we stay with the same 2,000,000 jumps in a year that was sugested earlier in this thread with an average of 35 fatalities per year thats 57,142.9 jumps per fatality. On the contrary we have (42,116 Fatalities in 2001) 66,042,881.6 miles driven per fatality. Thats quite a saftey diffrence. I will further digest this to include the comparison to injuries resulting from a vehicle accident (3,033,000 injuries in 2001). So that comes out to 917,066.3 miles per injury. I think that puts the saftey versus driving comparison to bed. Even if we were to assume 4,000,000 jumps in a year thats only 114285.7 jumps per fatality which is still WELL below the injury numbers for driving. (Edit: Spelling) and: To clarify before anyone asks how they can know the exact miles driven, the number is a population estimate based on a colection of sample data from people living in the US. Thats why the numbers are given in millions.~D Where troubles melt like lemon drops Away above the chimney tops That's where you'll find me. Swooping is taking one last poke at the bear before escaping it's cave - davelepka Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
