Skydiving Fatality Rates Over the Years

[tso-d_chris 0]

Does anyone know if or how the rate of skydivers dying in the sport has changed over the years.

I was having a discussion with a fellow jumper, who feels that AADs have decreased the rate at which skydivers die. I believe AADs have changed the manner in which skydivers die, but not the rate, consistent with Booth's Second Law, "The safer skydiving gear becomes, the more chances skydivers will take, in order to keep the fatality rate constant."

Does anyone know where I can find statistics to support or invalidate my belief?

[Tink1717 2]

You will have to monitor or review the incident reports over time to support or nullify your hypothesis.

Skydivers don't knock on Death's door. They ring the bell and runaway... It really pisses him off.
-The World Famous Tink. (I never heard of you either!!)
AA #2069 ASA#33 POPS#8808 Swooo 1717

[tso-d_chris 0]

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You will have to monitor or review the incident reports over time to support or nullify your hypothesis.

As well as monitor the number of skydives made each year by the same sample of skydivers (those involved and not involved with the incidents)

I would be surprised if the data has not yet been compiled by someone.

[wmw999 2,587]

Here's a pointer to a thread I started a couple of years ago pointing in some of the same direction. I'm not sure anyone ever got around to doing the work, but there are some resources in there.

Also, apparently one can request other fatality information from USPA to include in analysis.

One point is that it appears there was a statistically significant drop in fatalities in the very early 80's.

Wendy W.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[Jeff.Donohue 0]

What's Booth's First Law, then?

[RhondaLea 4]

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Does anyone know if or how the rate of skydivers dying in the sport has changed over the years.

Craig picked up and ran with Barry's database, so the years from 1995 to date are available. (Thank you, Craig. Thank you, Barry.)

I have seen a graph somewhere that shows fatalities going back to the late 70s-early 80s, but I can't find it now.

rl

If you don't know where you're going, you should know where you came from. Gullah Proverb

[sdctlc 0]

I saw that graph as well somewhere. I seem to recall the rate was similar over the years but the reasons seem to have transitioned. This was, I assunmed, due to improvements in equipment. Not many gear failures now...

Scott

"He who Hesitates Shall Inherit the Earth!"

[RhondaLea 4]

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I saw that graph as well somewhere. I seem to recall the rate was similar over the years but the reasons seem to have transitioned. This was, I assunmed, due to improvements in equipment. Not many gear failures now...

Scott

This is a little off the topic, but in hunting for the graph, I found this little nugget:

http://www.safetycenter.navy.mil/media/seashore/issues/fall05/pdf/skydiving.pdf

About 30 people die annually in parachuting accidents in the United States, or roughly one person per 100,000 jumps. According to U.S. Parachute Association (USPA) statistics, 1998 was the worst year on record for U.S. skydiving fatalities, with 44. The numbers in subsequent years were as follows: 1999 – 27, 2000 – 32, 2001 – 35, 2002 – 33, 2003 – 25, 2004 – 23.
To put those numbers in perspective, consider that roughly 40,000 people die each year in traffic
accidents in the United States. That’s 1.7 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles. Therefore, if you drive 10,000 miles a year, your chance of dying in a car crash is something like 1 in 6,000. You would have to jump 17 times per year for your risk of dying in a skydiving incident to equal your risk of dying in a car wreck if you drive 10,000 miles a year.

rl

If you don't know where you're going, you should know where you came from. Gullah Proverb

[tso-d_chris 0]

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What's Booth's First Law, then?

Something to the effect of:
The altitude which your parachute takes to open is inversely proportional to the altitude at which deployment is initiated

Or

The lower you dump, the longer your canopy will snivel.

[RhondaLea 4]

Skydiving Fatalities 1963 through 1997

I had to go to archive.org to get this.

I think Kallend may have additional information.

rl

If you don't know where you're going, you should know where you came from. Gullah Proverb

[aftermid 0]

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"The safer skydiving gear becomes, the more chances skydivers will take, in order to keep the fatality rate constant."

This isn't based on any kind of statistical data but based on all the serious low turn injuries and deaths I wonder how many people died with perfectly good canopies over head twenty-five years. It seems like Booth may have been onto something.

[kallend 2,148]

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Skydiving Fatalities 1963 through 1997

I had to go to archive.org to get this.

I think Kallend may have additional information.

rl

here are some data:
www.iit.edu/~kallend/skydive/fatalities.gif

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[billbooth 10]

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What's Booth's First Law, then?

Something to the effect of:
The altitude which your parachute takes to open is inversely proportional to the altitude at which deployment is initiated

Or

The lower you dump, the longer your canopy will snivel.

My second law may also be helpful in this discussion: "As gear gets safer, jumpers automatically take more risks, so as to keep the fatality rate level."

[cpoxon 0]

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Craig picked up and ran with Barry's database, so the years from 1995 to date are available.

A few months out of date at the moment. Hoping to catch up soon. Stop dying people. :'-(

Skydiving Fatalities - Cease not to learn 'til thou cease to live

[RhondaLea 4]

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Craig picked up and ran with Barry's database, so the years from 1995 to date are available.

A few months out of date at the moment. Hoping to catch up soon. Stop dying people. :'-(

That would be the best solution.

You've done a great job holding down the fort, Craig, but it would be better if there were no fort.

rl

If you don't know where you're going, you should know where you came from. Gullah Proverb

[Fleahop 0]

Try the NTSB web site. They have all kinds of statistics on anything that moves.

Fleahop

Don't just knock on deaths door...Kick it down and run like hell! He hates that.

[riggerrob 643]

One point is that it appears there was a statistically significant drop in fatalities in the very early 80's.

Wendy W.

[billbooth 10]

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What's Booth's First Law, then?

The lower you pull, the longer your parachute will take to open...or the greater your chance of malfunction. In other words, when things go wrong, is is usually at the worst possible time.

[wmw999 2,587]

I was teaching at that time, and there was a lot of transition. I think in part, too, that the attention to good instruction that came with AFF had an impact on S/L instruction. Gear definitely made a difference -- we were a pretty big DZ, and we went to piggybacks about then, although with rounds (which don't lead to fatalities -- off landings, but not the kinds of devastating injuries that lead to fatalities). I think that was pretty common. No more throw-out reserves, no more capewells made a huge difference. We had SOS rigs.

I don't remember tandems that early. I was getting out if skydiving to some degree by about 1985, and I don't think tandems were real common in Houston yet. Even AFF didn't come to Texas until 1982, and, again, we were a decent-sized market.

Either way, it was a long time ago, and today's problem is the fact that canopies seem to be evolving faster than canopy-teaching skills. Not necessarily in the beginning, but shortly thereafter. When I was a jumping puppy, students and inexsperienced jumpers (<50 jumps or so) were considered to be at the most risk. Now inexperienced jumpers have less than 3-400 jumps, and the fatalities include a LOT more really experienced people.

Dunno what it all means. But education and pride have a lot to do with it.

Wendy W.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)